DWTS Season 15 Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 6: Agree or Disagree?
What a difference a week of dances make on Dancing With The Stars again. The Odds Makers at Sports Bovada have placed their bets again. First, check out Shawn Johnson! In all of the time I’ve been writing these odds up have I ever seen such strong odds favoring someone and rightfully so. Shawn is off the hook. Emmitt Smith has risen up the ladder to second place again. Apolo and Kelly have both fallen some. Note too how the odds makers are even more convinced this week that Kirstie Alley is going home which I still think they are wrong about. Same with Sabrina. I think it should be Kelly at the bottom this week.
Shawn Johnson 1/1
Emmitt Smith 7/2
Gilles Marini 9/2
Apolo Anton Ono 6/1
Kelly Monaco 10/1
Melissa Rycroft 33/1
Sabrina Bryan 50/1
Kirstie Alley 75/1
Last week’s Las Vegas Odds going into Week 5 to compare:
Shawn Johnson 7/5
Apolo Anton Ono 4/1
Emmitt Smith 4/1
Kelly Monaco 5/1
Gilles Marini 6/1
Melissa Rycroft 25/1
Sabrina Bryan 50/1
Kirstie Alley 66/1
So, what do you think? Are the odds makers in Las Vegas wrong or right this time? Let’s get Miss Heidi’s and Courtney’s thoughts….
Courtney: These oddsmakers seem to get far too influenced by the ups and downs of each week. I think it takes at least 2 weeks of really good (or really bad) performances to see a pattern that could genuinely affect the odds. I also think the split performance nights may have negatively affected certain individuals while helping others – Emmitt may have had the most memorable individual performance of the first night, but it pales in comparison to every routine we saw on Tuesday night; yet he got so hyped and overscored on Monday night (and everyone on Tuesday night, with the exception of Sabrina, got low-balled) that it gives the impression that he’s a legitimate frontrunner, and he rises back to 2nd place – which I highly doubt. Likewise, 3 of the 4 couples that danced on Tuesday night seemed to get lowballed, and I think that negatively affected their odds – even though I think it was kind of obvious they had the superior dances. And then there’s Shawn – what exactly did she do this week that suddenly made her a sure thing? Like Vogue, I also think they may be underestimating the rebound effect of Kirstie’s fans – even if a couple is ultimately destined for the chopping block, they often seem to experience a surge in votes the week after they’re in the bottom 2. I think that could happen for Kirstie this week…and I think the most likely candidates to take her place in the bottom 2 are Kelly & Melissa. But who knows – this season is weird. It makes my head spin 😛
Heidi: Um, no. I’m still of the opinion that Apolo will ultimately edge out Shawn. And I think he will definitely edge out Gilles. I was going to say that I think they have the bottom three all wrong, but then I remember these are odds to WIN. I think Emmitt and Kelly are both too high, Sabrina a touch too low. If the standings remain the same this week, I think Kirstie beats Kelly. Courtney’s right, though – this season is CRAZY. I think the closest things to a “sure thing” are Apolo and Shawn – and if the judges keep on with the crack, I could change my mind about both. The rest? I hope like hell Gilles is a “shocking” elimination but that’s about it. I would hate to be an odds maker because it’s too hard to call the finale. Maybe that’s why the called Shawn even money – the rest are too fluid and uncertain.
I kind agree with Shawn being 1/1, at this point is her to Lose, tree weeks in a row being IMO the best, from now on she is only going to get better as a dancer, and they still have paso and argentine tango (some of Derek’s best work).
Apolo is low but right now I don’t see him edging Shawn at all, Gilles for sure, but not Shawn.
I could see Emmit in the final tree with Shawn and Apolo, he is not the best dancer but I enjoy watching him dance, and I think a lot people fell the same way.
“First, check out Shawn Johnson! In all of the time I’ve been writing these odds up have I ever seen such strong odds favoring someone and rightfully so. Shawn is off the hook.”
I am glad someone recognizes Shawn’s amazing talent, even though Len has cataracts and can’t see straight. She has definitely risen to the professional status. Perhaps that is why Len uses a higher standard for her, he can “see” her potential. Still, if Len is pushing her, he should also push the others – “cough” Gilles After all in that 20/20 piece they named him as one of the best celebrities who had been on the show. But that WAS the old Gilles. This one looks nothing like him.
Shawn is the real deal. Her dedication and positive attitude is the pure essence of what DWTS should be, but we don’t always see – “cough” Gilles. I believe she will win. Besides her own abilities, she IS dancing with Derek “freaking” Hough! (Thanks for that, Sabrina)
Sabrina too low.
Gilles too high.
While I would LOVE for Apolo and Karina to win, I think Shawn will in fact, be the winner. I would love for Apolo/Karina to be second in that case. I don’t think they can overcome the public’s love for Derek (umm, my Mom is his biggest fan, LOL!) and Shawn combined. You KNOW their freestyle will kick ass, so I will be shocked if they don’t win. So I’m still pulling for A/K to win, and will be pleasantly surprised if they do, but realistically think it’s been Shawn’s to lose since week 1.
I think the general public’s infatuation they had with Gilles in Season 8 and prior to this season has waned considerably, and although judges seem to love him, really think his numbers of voters are going to keep dwindling.
I kind of forget Emmitt is even on. Cheryl sounds pretty stressed about the travel they’ve been doing, so I think that is going to affect them. I don’t think he has the numbers of voters he had in his first season as well. I am a huge football fan, and follow a lot of NFL/sports tweets and he is rarely mentioned, so I don’t think he has the original FB fan vote like before. Now maybe someone in Dallas can tell me if he’s getting as much publicity there as he was his first season. I don’t think just Dallas voters can get him to the finals.
I’m worried that Kelly has a full soap schedule. She did an awesome paso, but like she said, she was off that week and able to practice a lot more. With 2 dances, and double elim, and a FT tv show outside DWTS, I don’t see her staying around much longer, even with votes. I think her scores are going to suffer. And I’ve also been reading a lot of people saying their showmance stuff is now over the top and they’re annoying moreso than hot.
I think who goes first b/w Sabrina and Melissa is tough to call. I think Kirstie and Kelly will go before them, but don’t know if they can outlast Emmitt, Gilles, and Apolo. I think Tony and Louis are really going to have to bring some outstanding choreography to wow the audiences to get those spots.
Kirstie I think should get the “thanks for playing – you’re doing better than most other people your age” trophy and get nowhere near the semi-finals and go home next week, but I thought that same thing her season and she stayed while far superior dancers left. Grrr.
And I think the Vegas odds are stupid, since like Courtney said, they are fluctuating with the scoreboard each week. It should be more overall season feeling, not each week.
MY thinking is a finale:
Shawn
Apolo
Emmett
Gilles can go before Kirstie as far as my enjoyment, and Kirstie can go at any time and it would not be too early, in fact not too early for either of these two and throw in Kelly also. Get these 3 out and then look and eval the remaining dancers. Shawn is doing amazing dances and Sabrina is excellent one week then the next just medium.
Interesting thoughts 🙂 I guess the finale will come down to fanbase. The judges will probably even up the playing field and as usual leave it up to the fans.
Interesting. Thanks for posting. The first two weeks, I voted for all my favorites, but I’ve since realized splitting the votes hasn’t really worked, so I’ve had to pick a favorite (ultimately Shawn & Derek) and give them all my votes.
I think Shawn will be the ultimate winner, and have since it was announced that she and Derek were paired. I just think they were unstoppable before anyone set a foot on the dance floor.
I think Apolo and Karina will take second.
I’m leaning toward Melissa or Sabrina sneaking in for the third spot. I don’t think Emmitt, Kirstie or Kelly will have the scores to carry them, and I think the public is tiring quickly of Gilles.
If Derek continues to come up with dances like last week, I believe it’s almost a given that he and Shawn will win, but I don’t think Apolo will go down without a fight. The difference imo might be in Karina and how much she can elevate their dance. What a treat it would be to see Derek and Karina go head to head in the finale. I
That would be some fan-freakin’-tastic dancing, Katarina. Would much rather Sabrina or Melissa be there with them over Gilles or Emmitt. Nothing against Emmitt, really, just don’t see any big deal or great dancing there.
I love Karina and Apollo. But I think Shawn and Derek can beat em. Id rather see Emmitt in the finale as well. CAnt take Gilles anymore.
I So hope its true! She has been IMO-untouchable for the last 3 weeks, whether her scores reflect it or not. I also think she will continue to get better and her partnership with Derek is very strong. He will continue to challenge her and she has the ability to deliver.
Its still hard to say who will win though. I’m hoping for a finals with Shawn, Melissa & Apolo or Sabrina, with Shawn for the win!! I think those 4 contestants have grown close and would make for a great semi-finals or finals.
Anyway, I love those odds. Go Shawn & Derek!
I don’t want Gilles anywhere near the finals, but I have to admit that the idea of him getting beat by Shawn again, especially now that the margin would be much bigger, would be sweet. The look on his face as she gets the MBT again would be hilarious. But I still want Apolo in that final, finishing second. Melissa would be a great third place, she is so likable, and I love how she and tony ane drama free.
When Shawn got paired with Derek, I thought the season was theirs to win, and judgung by the stunning dances they’ve done so far, I still believe that. I think Apolo won’t give up easily though and I see him in second place, but what a fantastic contest that will be between the two of them for the win. Third place is trickier, but I suspect it might be Sabrina. She’s looking good this season and has toned down her bombastic dancing. Melissa is a sweetie but I have no confidence Tony has the creative ability to give her exciting choreo. I don’t think the others will make it to the finale, and as funny as I find Kirstie, it’s time to say bye-bye.
I still am not convinced that Shawn will walk away with the MBT. I do think it will come down to Apolo and Shawn, but to call the win for one or another, I just don’t know.
Does anyone really know if Shawn has the bigger fanbase? Or Apolo? So many factors play into the WIN.
Someone mentioned the dancing level of Shawn, well, Sabrina has been mighty impressive this season as well. It’s not always the BEST dancer that makes it to the end, or wins for that matter.
I don’t think that a champion will walk away with the MBT this season it will most definitely be someone who has not won . Probably Sabrina , Gilles or a surprise win Melissa.
IT will shock me if a former champion take home the MBT yet again
IMO, at this point, I don’t think the average viewer cares whether or not a former champion wins again. They want to be entertained, amazed and moved. If its a former champion producing crowd pleasing routines, and they’re well liked why wouldn’t they get the votes.-lol Afterall, this is an Allstar season and is suppose to be the best of the best. May the best man or woman win, former champion or not!!
It’s also interesting to look at the odds from some of the oddsmakers. For example, as of 10/22 Las Vegas Wynn has odds to win of:
Shawn/Derek: 3 to 1
Gilles/Peta: 4 to 1
Kelly/Val: 5 to 1
Emmitt/Cheryl: 6 to 1
Apolo/Karina: 8 to 1
Melissa/Tony: 11 to 1
Sabrina/Louis: 12 to 1
Kirstie/Maksim: 25 to 1
While they seem to agree on the couple least likely to win, there’s not a lot of agreement otherwise. I do think Apolo is being underestimated by odds makers as I’ve seen quite a bit of hardcore support for him online, among those persons most likely to vote devotedly, and not just at this site.
I think I can say with some certainty that Melissa is NOT going to win. I don’t think that Sabrina will either. I think internet rabid fans are the only ones who get the idea that someone new has to win.
I don’t see Shawn winning this season. Unless there will be at least 3-4 points between Shawn and the other two finalists.
I don’t think Kirstie, Sabrina or Emmitt will win. Because Kirstie and Sabrina was in bottom two and I think they’ll make sure Emmitt gets eliminated in double elimination.
I think Apolo’s gonna make his breakthrough in a week or two and he will be praised every week-like Shawn and Gilles-, so my guess is he can win. And if Peta can step up the choreography Gilles can win too. Or maybe there’ll be a surprise female winner like Kelly or Melissa, though I don’t see it happening.
My “guess” is it’ll be Shawn, Gilles and Apolo or Kelly in the finale. Definitely not what I want, of course.
There are a lot of people who feel a winner should not win again, AND a lot of people who feel All-Stars should have been just winners, so they want a prev winner to win.
I would luuuuuv Apolo to win. I worry about the need to do 12 hour days for one dance, now that 2 dances are here. The only other prob I see with him is lifting Karina. Not sure why…he’s got the guns for it (beautiful ones at that lol) and she’s an itty bitty thing to lift.
I might not be able to watch or vote and I’m pissed (Hurricane Sandy)….so here’s hoping either the hurricane dies out within the next 24 hours or other Apolo & Karina fans bring it big time.
Stay safe to those up and down the east coast!
Shawn and Gilles in the finals, because the producers wants a “can Shawn win again? or is Gilles going to beat her this time?” scenario. But of course Shawn’s gonna win again! Blah, I’d like to see something original. And of course this is Derek’s last season, so they made sure that he wins another MBT. So predictable…