Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers
Well, this is going to be a bit different. With the exception of next week, the eliminations are going to be based on a given night’s judges scores and the previous week’s audience votes. As a result, I think Dancing by the Number is going to be a bit more predictive to the following week, as opposed to the following night. But we’ll have to see how it all plays out. As I’m sitting down to write this, I’m not sure how it’s going to go. And I may do it differently next week. I’m flyin’ by the seat of my pants here. 🙂
As I said, next week is supposedly going to be the exception. According to the press release that Vogue posted (probably days ago), the week two elimination is going to take into account the first two weeks of judges scores (50%) and this week’s viewer vote (50%). As a result, what you see now in terms of score could be substantially changed by the time next week rolls around, and the votes are based on what happened this week, so that has to be considered as well.
The immediate problem with this scenario and the longer range prediction that we’ll have to make is that you’re using future dances, as opposed to dances you’ve already seen. For that reason, I’ve taken the time to find out which celebs are doing what dance next week to help with my guessing. Why? Well, it seems to me that Amber could have trouble with ballroom (who knows, using her as an example) while Bill Nye could excel at something like a Waltz. Knowing what dance they’re going to do should at least be considered when making your guess, in addition to the usual judge’s games. Below is a list of who’s dancing what and my predicted score. Note, my scores are not like Marianya’s predictions – I’m doing mine based on the dance, the pro partner, how well they did this past week, how I think they’re likely to do based on the dance they’ve been given, ringer status and the judges crack smoking habits. 🙂
Next Week’s Dances:
Amber – Jive
Jack – Rumba
Christina – Paso
Bill N. – Paso
Corbin – Jive
Elizabeth – Samba
Bill E. – Jive
Keyshawn – Samba
Brant – Rumba
Leah ??
Valerie ??
Nicole ??
I’m going to say right now that I don’t think it matters what Valerie is dancing, she will get a 21 – and even if she scores lower, she won’t be going anywhere. Her 21 of this past week should keep her firmly on the ballroom floor, combined with the first week of voting and the emotional angle.
Next, let’s look at the Jive dancers. I’ve always had a suspicion that the producers select the dance styles and then hand them out so that there is a mix of strong and weak dancers with each dance. In this case you have Amber, Corbin and Bill E. Now, I don’t consider any of the three as the “weak” dancer – Bill E would be closest and might be considered cannon fodder by the producers. It kinda depends on if they give Jive to Leah, Valerie (as if) or Nicole – theoretically, with 12 dancers and four styles you would have three of each style, but the producers can’t have that. We’ll see. Let’s say they play it logically and these are your three with Jive. I think that Corbin is going to move up the judges list, while Amber moves down a bit. Bill E will also increase his score, but by a smaller margin. So, I’m predicting Amber 24, Corbin 25 and Bill E. with 19.
The Rumba: Jack and Brant…and I’m guessing Valerie. I just think the producers will take their time giving her a more up tempo dance. I’ve already said I think that Val will get a 21, regardless, and if she’s lower it won’t matter. I’m betting that Peta turns it on with Brant and that they score well from at least the two most predictable judges. I think Jack will do alright, actually. I think it will be Brant with 25, Jack with 24, Val with 21.
Next up, the Samba. I’d bet that they add Snookie to the combo of Elizabeth and Keyshawn, just based on personality. I think both Snookie and Elizabeth will kill it while Keyshawn won’t fare quite as well. I’m going with Elizabeth getting a 26, Snookie a 25 and Keyshawn an 18.
That brings us to Paso, and Christina, Bill N and Leah (I think). Remember, we’re worried about actual score here more than what the dance ends up being. Mark can choreograph a mean Paso, so I think Christina will kill it, while Leah and Bill won’t fare so well. Bill has Tyne, who’s not as experienced at ballroom as the others, and Leah has Tony. Tony can do it, but Leah seems like she would be too soft for Paso. And Bill might be too gangly. I’m going to give Christina a 24 mainly cuz Mark is shooting his mouth off at Len and the judges either go overboard good, or overboard bad when a pro does that. I’m guessing she’ll be underscored a bit again, although 24 in week two is nothing to sneeze at. I’m afraid that Bill improves but only to a 17, while Leah holds steady at 21, whether she deserves it or not.
While most people’s scores increase to some degree in my scenario, the overall effect on the number of votes required for someone to stick around is rather dramatic, especially in the case of Bill Nye. Of course it won’t be this way every week, but every time you add two weeks scores together, it narrows the margins. First, look at this table that shows the two week’s scores and the resulting percentages:
When you divide an individual’s total score by the number of points handed out, you get their percentage of the judges scores. Do the same thing with the viewer votes; the total votes divided into an individual’s votes to get their percentage of the vote. Add those two numbers together and you get their rank. Person with the lowest combined total goes home. Now, the first week’s scores by themselves results in the following vote requirements (number of “votes per million” refers to the number of votes the first person in the pair needs to “beat” the second person in the pair. e.g. Bill N needs 11k to “beat” Keyshawn.):
You’ll see that Bill needs more than 11k per million just to get past Keyshawn and 15k to get past Bill E. Frankly, I think he does that with no problem. If Bill gets past Keyshawn, then Keyshawn needs to beat one person and I’m afraid that person is Bill E. If both Keyshawn and Bill N. are beating Bill E, then he needs to beat someone else. And based on the Week 1 requirements, I don’t see that happening. But what about the week 2 requirements when both scores are taken into account? See below:
The numbers that Bill Nye needs to be safe decrease rather dramatically, increasing his chance, IMO, of sticking around. He needs less than 8k and less than 12k to beat Keyshawn and Bill E, respectively, and I’m guessing he does that just on his fanbase. Who, between Keyshawn and Bill E will go home? I’m guessing Bill E. based solely on name recognition or lack thereof. Could all three men beat someone above them for a “shocking elimination?? I don’t think so this week. I think the two or three most likely candidates for shocking eliminations are Christina, Elizabeth and MAYBE Leah. Brant might go sooner than he should, but that’s not really all that shocking since no one really knows him the way the other three are known. I think Christina and Elizabeth are too far out of reach for Bill E this week. Leah is closer, but he would need close to 10k votes per million votes cast to get past her. I don’t see that happening.
I think they call Bill Nye safe first, then Keyshawn and Bill E are the bottom two with Bill E, sadly, going home. As always, I could be wrong.
P.S. If anyone has trouble understanding this the way I’ve explained it, say so. I will try to be more clear in the next week. 🙂
I just love this feature!! Excellent job and fascinating once again!!
When you put your figures together like you have, I can see why you picked Bill E. Though I think if he keeps surprising people like he did this past week, he could possibly stick in there?
I can kind of see Leah and Bill N in the bottom two. I’m worried it might be Bill N to go unless he really turns it on and has a flawless dance. Then again, Leah really needs to turn it on too (and she was my least favorite this week). As of right now, I’d rather see Leah go than Bill N.
Anyway, excellent Heidi!! I love the shake up for how you’ll have to do the numbers post this season.
ADDING: And I forgot to add that I’m worried on Keyshawn a little too. I hope his fan base will keep him in and he will be a fighter this week and come back strong. please please please lol
Agree, excellent and fascinating. Sad to say I agree Bill E will be one to go.
Wow, you are brilliant! I’m fond of Emma, so I hope Bill E’s not out, but somebody has to be, and I’m so nervous about Valerie having to withdraw that I can’t invest too much emotional energy right now in worrying about anybody else.
I was wondering if you think the order of dance matters very much. With 12 dancers, at the end of the evening, I was struggling to remember the first four – especially Brant and Leah. I do think the producers probably liked Leah’s spunk in dealing with the judges, and might up her scores and improve her placement next week to improve her odds. OTOH, they always need some fodder and frequently Tony’s a fodder-partner.
Interesting that you think Christina and Elizabeth might be surprise eliminations! I guess I figured they have Liz in their eyes as our eventual winner, not really knowing who else to guess. Lots to wonder about this season, at least so far. Thanks for the great analysis!
Great analysis, PH, even though your result breaks my heart. There are a couple others I’d much rather see go than Bill E. So I’m hoping the numbers lie.
I hate that the Stooges get to judge the celebs twice and the viewers’ only get one shot. Despite what they say, I dont consider that a 50/50 split.
If I had to choose between Bill E. and Keyshawn, I’m hoping Keyshawn goes home, as much as I hate that for Sharna. But Bill E going home already just doesn’t feel right. In a fair world, it should be Bill Nye, not only because he really did have the worst dance by far, but because I really don’t see that much more coming from this team. Yes, he might do better in the ballroom round, but I’m not expecting much from his Paso Doble next week.
Gail, I think the dance order can matter very much, depending on who it is. For Valerie? Not so much. But I think it is tremendously important for people like brant, Elizabeth, and bill E.
As for the surprise elimination people, that will depend heavily on their partners ability to choreograph memorable dances, and make them likable. Both have potential to be great dancers and both are ringers…and only one is likely to be a surprise elim. I don’t know if both can survive this cast as a whole. You have a few people with healthy fanbases that may not be as good at dancing and a few hot guys who can dance. That usually spells trouble, eventually, for people like Elizabeth and Christina.
Ill be really sad if Bill E leaves too, watching him monday and based on his tweets it seems like hes having a lot of fun, really wants to learn and a good attitude also to keep Emma around for a while longer. Pluse the judges underscored him which didn’t help. Id rather see Keyshawn go who was a worse dancer then him and has a bad attitude. That comment about looking feminine during his package I wonder what was going threw all the male pro dancers head when he said that. He will proably stay with the nfl fanbase though.
Add me to those who do *not* want Bill E to leave first – which means I’m hoping someone else does.
Given the numbers (thanks, PH!), I think the only ones Bill E has a chance of beating are Bill N, Keyshawn, and Leah. Bill N, of course, is *extremely* unlikely to be leaving, given the audience reaction, the buzz about him before the show, and the judges’ harshness. This means that (for Bill E to stay) either Keyshawn or Leah has to leave…and I kind of want Keyshawn to stay. Yes, his dancing wasn’t that great, but I *love* Sharna, and would hate to see her leave first, and I would feel really bad for Keyshawn – every other football player has at least made the middle of the pack (even Michael Irvin and Lawrence Taylor) and given that he has never even danced in a club before…I don’t know. I just feel it would be crushing for him in particular to leave first – and I have no idea why I feel that way, but I do.
Which means I’m hoping Leah leaves. I have nothing against her, and I like her spunk, but there is nothing that she or her partner are putting out that makes me want them to stay – and I think I would be just a little bit sad if Bill N or Keyshawn left first, and I know I would be very unhappy if Bill E leaves next week.
What’s with the online voting being open 24 hours? Is this a permanent thing and will it skew results any?
Miss Heidi, with the fan vote being cast before the judges see and score the dances, doesn’t that allow the producers to tell the judges who to over-score and under-score to undermine the fan vote and manipulate the outcome to get what they want? For example, the producers now know how many votes Bill Nye got this week. Can’t they tell the judges what score to give him next week so they could get rid of him by grossly underscoring him? I’m sorry if I’m not making any sense, but this new voting procedure confuses me.
Yes, Jennl, it does allow that and it certainly wouldn’t surprise me. While they could do it before, with the producers giving the judges an idea of how the votes were the week before so they could try to get rid of someone, now the producers will be certain of what kind of scoring will be required to get rid of someone.
Thank you for answering my questions.
I’m an extreme “grassy knoller” but I think the 24 hour voting is so that ABC can manipulate the online vote, in case they need to, to either promote or bring down someone, without making it look too “rigged” by having the judges do something outlandish, like give out 1’s or 10’s to people who don’t deserve it, just to get rid of them (or keep them.)
Does that make sense? Some supposedly an “insider” on General Hospital (and she knew thing that would happen before they happened, so we believed her) – she told fans on a message board once that ABC used interns to spend all day voting in magazine and online popularity polls in order to prop certain actors or couples that they wanted to succeed – making them look more popular than they were – getting their “wins” on the covers of magazines – etc.
And some of the pros have said that the show tells them to say things that aren’t true, which are filmed and put in the rehearsal videos, in order to make the show entertaining or affect how we feel about certain people, etc. IF any of that is true, then I think it proves they don’t mind lying or manipulating, that they don’t care if they’re ethical or not.
Which, imo, means they’d be willing to have someone at ABC “robo vote” to manipulate the results. And why don’t they just outright lie about the vote? I believe they would do that too, but Steve Wozniak caused a stink about it – the show claimed there were problems with fans “cheating” – and they now have a 3rd party actually tabulating the votes. But if ABC itself is casting online votes, then that 3rd party wouldn’t know about it, and the results would look “legit.”
Oh well, that’s just my theory as to why they’ve gone to such long hours for online voting.
Since past manipulation has been so obvious and blatent, its scary to think it may become even worse. Much as I love the show, that could definitely chase me away.
I agree with Bill E going, but I think it could be a close one between him and Keyshawn.
I know this is a ridiculous comparison to make, but it’s almost as if Bill Nye’s fanbase is channeling Zendaya’s from last season! They both are getting a lot of love on Twitter – Bill’s dance has 2 and a half million youtube views, already.
Here’s the thing… I’m a little concerned that Bill N could knock out one or two contestants with more potential – and I agree that Elizabeth and Christina could be those likely.
Bill Nye should be the one going home, but he won’t. He’ll stick around a few weeks because of his fanbase. I think he’ll do marginally better with a ballroom dance, but he still deserves to go. That said, I would rather see Keyshawn go this week. He did a lot of standing around and then clomped when he did move. He doesn’t have a good attitude about this and I think he’d be happy to be done.
Bill E. was a nice surprise and does appear to be enjoying himself and willing to learn. To me that’s an important factor. I would rather see a person that’s not so good and knows they don’t have a chance of winning but embraces the opportunity stay rather than the better dancer with the attitude and lack of interest.
Leah’s attitude isn’t the greatest and she has Tony for a partner. His choreography is boring, his choice in costumes is appalling so it wouldn’t be a great loss if they were voted off.
I don’t think Keyshawn will have the NFL vote that others have had in the past. He’s been out of the game for awhile, I don’t think his name is as big as the others and he didn’t stick with one or two teams. He floated around, so I don’t think he’s as well known by a lot of people that would be voting to keep him around. But I could be wrong.
It would be no loss if Elizabeth left either, but she’s not going anywhere. Her deer in the headlights look is distracting, and she has Val. I don’t like Val. At. All. I would love to see them out at mid season. I can dream, can’t I?
Amber is going to do well with the jive. I think she will do better with the faster numbers than ballroom, but we’ll see. I think Snooki, Corbin, Christina and Jack will do fine this week too.
Valerie is going to be around for awhile and I’m glad for that. She’s having so much fun, embracing it completely, and I want to see that continue. I would like to think I could have her attitude facing something like that, but I doubt I would. She’s a special person and want her to continue as long as she can.
Brant is forgettable to me. I only remember he’s on because Peta’s his partner but that’s not saying much. She’s desperate to prove herself since Donald’s win, but I don’t see that happening.
I’m hoping for Keyshawn or Leah to go.
I’m not sure I’m ready to see any of the celebs go next week. I genuinely like them all even if I already have my favorites. But as many have already said, someone has to go. Sigh!
Numbers don’t lie, so the saying goes. From what I can see, Bill E. is likely to go home. Hoping against hope that he’s not. I was truly surprised by him and his performance, and to think I was excited to see what Snicole would do. I did throw some votes his way because his performance made me smile and left me with a warm fuzzy feeling.
MY POEM FOR WEEK ONE
WELCOME BACK, DANCING WITH THE STARS!
All spiffy, spit-shined, polished, dusted off, rarin’ and ready to go
A hearty welcome back to the DANCING WITH THE STARS show
A Red Carpet entrance full of stars and celebrities surely fit for a king
A show-stoppin’, toe-tappin’, opening number full of sass and swing
The action was snappin’ the couples nervously waiting time to dance
The contemporary was performed by three couples full of romance
Corbin and Karina, Elizabeth and Val, Christina and Mark on the floor
Applause rang out from the crowd wanting to see so very much more
The Cha Cha Cha was rousingly performed, five couples shook it out
Amber and Derek, Brant and Peta, Bill and Tyne were fine no doubt
Nicole and Sasha, Keyshawn and Sharna shimmied their very best
Four couples were ready to Foxtrot, to glide, stride, to pass the test
Bill and Emma, Leah and Tony, Jack and Cheryl trotted with care
Valerie and Tristan glided across the floor with inspiration and flair
Oh how it is wonderful to have our ballroom show return to the air
To view the new-fangled, new-spangled show from our easy chair
Season 17 is here, our love for the show rings loud up to the rafter
Anticipation grows to see the razzle, dazzle, snazzle coming after
We will return next Monday to the spectacular, shimmering show
Viewing DANCING WITH THE STARS, the show with special glow!
Written By Lois A Troutman, September 19, 2013
WELCOME BACK DANCING WITH THE STARS, WE MISSED YOU!
Lets do a comparison for Dancing by the Numbers for DWTS and SCD 10
DWTS
Amber – 51 – 9.71%
Elisabeth – 50 – 9.52%
Corbin – 49 – 9.33%
Snooki – 48 – 9.14%
Brant – 47 – 8.95%
Jack – 47 – 8.95%
Christina – 46 – 8.76%
Leah – 42 – 8.00%
Valerie – 42 – 8.00%
Bill E. – 37 – 7.05%
Keyshawn – 35 – 6.67%
Bill T. – 31 – 5.90%
SCD (On SCD they do a ‘points’ system that they used in I think the first season of DWTS, where if there’s 12 contestants, the contestant that tops the leaderboard gets 12 points, and so on. Same with the public vote. The two stars with the lowest amount of overall points have to dance their former routines again and the judges’ vote on who they want to save. Scores out of 40 are now out of 60. Two dances combined.)
Denise – 42.75 – 8.98%
Louis – 42.75 – 8.98%
Lisa – 41.25 – 8.66%
Kimberly – 40.5 – 8.50%
Dani – 36 – 7.56%
Sid – 36 – 7.56%
Colin – 35.25 – 7.40%
Fern – 32.25 – 6.77%
Victoria – 31.5 – 6.61%
Richard – 30.75 – 6.46%
Johnny – 27.75 – 5.83%
Jerry – 27 – 5.67%
Nicky – 26.25 – 5.51%
Michael – 26.25 – 5.51%
That week, Richard and Johnny were in the dance off, with Johnny leaving.
If they had used percentages and got the same result,
Michael and Nicky would have needed 3,200 votes per million cast to get past Johnny, and 9,500 more votes to get past Richard, while Jerry would have needed just 1,600 more votes to get past Johnny and 7,900 to get past Richard.
I really hope Emma and Bill especape elimination!
*escape
According to Instagram, Leah has samba next week-does that change the predictions for her any?
Not really, LMK. As one of the bigger names on the show this season, I think she’s safe for a while.
What you have to remember is that it’s both weeks scores. That waters down a bad dance when others had much worse ones (and likely will again).
While thinking about this season of DWTS, I can’t help but think of So You Think You Can Dance. Both shows reverted from a two-night-a-week format to a one-night-a-week format. SYTYCD has mastered this format, so though I think DWTS has it harder because of the scores, you can sort of get a sense of how the season could go by looking at SYTYCD.
In terms of the actual numbers in this post, I really enjoy this analysis. It is mathematical and logical. I love it! As far as who goes home, I would not be surprised if Bill E. goes home. Although I think Bill N. is a lot worse, his fan base will carry him. Of all the dancers, Bill N. was the most accurately scored, while Amber was WAY over scored. I can understand 8’s fort hat dance, but not 9’s.
Here’s this year’s SCD week 1 comparison. The scorings gone up.
1st – Abbey and Aljaz – 24/30
2nd – Natalie and Artem – 23.1/30
=3rd – Susanna and Kevin – 21/30
=3rd – Sophie and Brendan – 21/30
=3rd – Patrick and Anya – 21/30
6th – Rachel and Pasha – 20.1/30
7th – Ashley and Ola – 18.9/30
=8th – Mark and Iveta – 18/30
=8th – Fiona and Anton – 18/30
=8th – Deborah and Robin – 18/30
11th – Julian and Janette – 15/30
=12th – Ben and Kristina – 14.1/30
=12th – Vanessa and James – 14.1/30
=14th – Tony and Aliona – 12/30
=14th – Dave and Karen – 12/30