Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers PART II
Hey, I totally forgot to account for the Switcheroo Challenge crapola in my last post. It will be rather difficult to account for it in this follow up, since we aren’t really sure how it’s going to work. Here’s what we know about it:
- There appears to be two groups, one group comprised of Bill, Liz, Corbin and Jack. Everyone else is in the other group.
- It is a switched up marathon with 2 rounds.
- The music will change at least once during the marathon, presumably the style will change as well. I hear three possible styles, but that could just be chatter.
- You get scored according to how long you last.
- You don’t know the music or style you will be dancing too, although I presume they were given a list of potential styles.
Despite knowing all those things, we don’t really know how it’s going to work. I’m going to GUESS that it will be TWO marathons – first one group will do it and then the other group will do it. They will score each group like they do the standard marathons, that is the longer you stay, the more points you get. So, if it’s four couples, you can get a 7, 8, 9 or a 10. Why the groups?? Perhaps it’s easier to judge…perhaps it’s easier to stage…perhaps they have TWO people they need to give the extra points to. 🙂 But as we know, more points handed out is not necessarily a good thing.
So, in my numbers from yesterday, pretend that the scenario I gave happened now it’s time for the Switcheroo. I’ve given the couples their extra points as shown in the table below – I’m going to bet if they’re doing it this way, they’re doing it to help Liz and Brant. So those two are the ones who got the 10 points. I also suspect that both Amber and Corbin might be in for a surprise – or Amber at least. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them give the 9 to Nicole, just to keep things interesting, but I’ve given it to Amber in my scenario. I think they will have a harder time doing that to Corbin, being that he’s such a ringer. I think Len’s going to be dropping the hammer on Amber more and more because she doesn’t have the dancer’s body (and hence, in his mind, the correct moves) that he prefers. Old fart. When you add in their new points, you get the totals, below:
Now, let’s see how much damage this does. The votes needed without the switch up dance can be seen here. Votes needed with the switcheroo are shown below:
As you can see, if these numbers are even close, they haven’t really widened the spread between Liz and Leah all that much; about 1000 votes. But they have widened the spread between Bill and Liz by about 4k votes per million votes cast. And that’s assuming he actually gets a 24 on his individual dance. Either way, they’ve got Liz pretty well insulated.
What they have also done is *narrowed* the spread between Bill and Leah by about 4k votes – I sure hope he’s killing it in votes, or he could be in trouble. If he gets lower than 24 and Leah does better than 21?? Trouble. Yikes. Even if it’s one point on both of them (Leah-22 and Bill-23) that moves the goal posts from just over 10k votes for Leah to beat him, to less than 4000 votes between them. This scares me. Let’s hope not.
If they do the IntstaMarathonSwitcherooni like I think they are, it also gives Brant an extra 4,000 vote lead on Leah and he also increases his lead on Bill by an additional 7,000 votes. Nice deal. That’s the nice thing about the marathon scoring (sarcasm) – while the addition of more points tends to narrow margins, the marathons increase the point spread such that it offsets the margin narrowing effect, if that makes any sense. Put another way, you narrow the margin between those at the lower end of the leader board (Bill and Leah) and you also narrow the margin at the top of the leader board (depending on who gets 8s and who gets 10s). But the margin between those at the top (Liz, Brant) and those at the bottom (Bill and Leah) is only widened, not narrowed. Not widened by a lot, but still.
So, you make it easier for Leah to beat Bill while still adding a bit of cushion to Liz and Brant. Of course, all of this hinges on who gets the 7s and who gets the 10s…and how well they do on their individual dances. At the end of the night I expect to see Liz and Corbin safely ensconced at the very top of the leader board and I expect to see Leah and Bill firmly at the bottom. As long as those two things happen, it might not matter what order the rest of them fall into.
And sorry, I can’t analyze this any more, it’s making my brain hurt. 🙂
Seems to me it would be fairer to have the teams split evenly by male/female contenders instead of putting Liz as the only female celeb and Brant as the only male on their respective teams.
“Switcheroo Challenge crapola” <<< ROTFL!!!!
And I can see why your brain is hurting. Mine is too!! But, yay, in all of time of PureDWTS, I don’t remember two Numbers posts in one week. Love loving it! Just please please let it be Leah to go!
thank u heidi it’s make sense
so the two groups were weird for me but you do give a good explanation having only one boy and one girl in each team will definitely protect some
i think nicole will get the 9 points and amber 8 (len!)
the only people screwed are bill and leah
Just praying that Bill got plenty of votes last week, so that he can survive whatever crap TPTB and/or the judges try to pull this week. I do think his tango will be better than Leah’s quickstep – he does well in hold and has really good posture. I think Leah might struggle. Has she done any ballroom yet? I can’t remember. I know she’s done contemporary, rumba, cha cha and…
Yay! I got a nice surprise seeing there were two dancing by the numbers post this week:)
Yes.. it’s making my brain hurt too :/ I’m hoping that Leah goes home this week and Bill is safe
I also really hope that Tom doesn’t announce the gender of the low scoring celeb. It just makes it feel even more like they(the judges) know what the vote is and how they need to score accordingly. Maybe that isn’t the case(sarcasm), but why put it out there like that.
Leah did Foxtrot in the first week of competition.
If Bill goes home over Leah, I’ll be seriously pissed.
I agree with RebeccaW, put all the girls on one team and the boys on the other. But TPTB are too chicken to do that. Let’s stop protecting Elizabeth and Brant. And let’s hope they leave Bill alone. He deserves to stay.
@Susan2
There are a few people that if Bill goes home before I’ll be peeved about.
But you know what they say. Why get mad when you can riot? 🙂
Riot gear ready… Check!
Tissues ready… Check!
Remote control programmed to CBS for next Monday night… Check!
Just kidding ladies! Fingers and toes crossed that Bill and Emma are safe this week to dance on!
I really hope TPTB are more careful about not showing their hand when it comes to this true crapola. Especially if Bill outdances Leah and doesn’t have a freakdown during the marathon, which I think Leah totally will, cause “she’s NOT a dancer”, just in case you hadn’t heard. I also suspect that if the favored ones mess up, if that happens to be Liz, it will go unnoticed. I expect most will struggle during this latest concept designed to entertain(mislead) the audience and since the show seems to mostly be a hurried mess this season, all, including the audience will just be glad when it’s over. I really hate that when they finally get down to what supposedly SHOULD be the better dancers and when we could see some great routnes is when they start throwing so much at them that no-one has time to concentrate on doing something awesome.
Well, if you remember the All Star season (and I do try to forget it) KA got the extra points for standing there and smacking Mak’s booty.
For some reason this Kiss Butt Challenge has me irked.
[…] I don’t know what to think of this new Switch-Up Challenge Dance (I like Heidi’s title better for it. lol)? I feel sorry for the couples having to do […]
What happens if the scores are 10, 8, 6, 4 instead of 10, 9, 8, 7? I’m pretty sure they’ve done it that way as well sometimes.
Ouch. That sound you just heard was my brain exploding. Thanks, buttercup. 🙂
If they do that, then they are very determined indeed to make sure either Leah or Bill goes home, aren’t they?? That would, presumably, give Liz a 14 point advantage over Leah – and well more than 40k votes.
I do not like these “marathons things”, because… I don´t know, i just don´t. I think it is not needed and it only make some poeple strugle more with their solo dances… however I do not see why you always say that Liz (or Brant) is “being saved” and so on… you do this in almost every article and I really do not see it hapenning ( and I am not woting for her, I want Corbin or Snooki to win) it just makes me a little angry, because I have this feeling, that you are just putting your personal feelings againts some people into this articles and I know that your page affects a lot of people. I kind of saw that you did this last season with Zendaya too, so I know, you probably do not like Val, but I just think that more objectivity would help, becouse sometimes it sounds like you just make an opinion about couple based on the pros and you do not even look at the importats persons in this – the celebrites.
P.S. Sorry for my english, it is not my first language and I am still learning.
Martina, I’m going to try and say this as nicely as possible: it is not your place to tell other people posting here how to think, feel, or speak. You are welcome to offer your OWN opinions, but talking about what other people are saying or criticizing other people for thinking or saying a certain thing is against the rules. This is your first and only warning.
I hope not! Bill is the only contestant keeping me tuned in this season.
TPTB must have thought that the viewers would fall in Love with Liz and Christina, boy did they get it wrong. Bill is the one that more than likely has won the hearts of the viewing public.
Liz is overrated and quite scary looking and I want her off of my television now!
I am sorry if it soudns rude to you, I really did not mean it that way. It was just something that was on my mind, so I wrote it, I did not meant to sound like I am telling people what they should do, I just wanted to tell what I don´t like, like a reader, but that doesn´t men I don´t like this page. I love this page and I admire you for what you are doing, so again, I am sorry if I sound rude.
I understand, Martina – just please avoid mentioning other people in your comments.
Let me just say, Martina, that you are VERY lucky Courtney got here before I did.
@Princess Heidi I’ve not denied that Len has “Derek issues.” He clearly has a different set of standards, and paddles for Derek and his partners. I have felt that Len knows Derek has talent and capability head and shoulders above the rest of the field and once a season, Len feels the need to slap him down, usually with a flimsy excuse about “frippery” vs a routine made up of classic, competitive/ professional moves. Tonight’s comments were patently ridiculous.
The reason I didn’t like Amber & Derek’s Foxtrot and I did Nicole & Sasha’s doesn’t have to do with ballroom hold. Amber’s moves were mostly pose with out flung limbs – shake your moneymaker vs. Nicole & Sasha’s gliding, graceful Fred & Ginger styled routine. Fred and Ginger for the win to me!
And that’s what I’m looking for from Amber, at least once, in this ballroom competition before I’ll be satisfied with her winning. A gliding, continuously moving routine with no legs spread, crotching movements at all!
Whatever you say.
And it’s TWICE now that Len has knocked Derek down this season. TWICE. But I know you’ll never admit that the 7 was crap too.
And Corbin is going to win. I’ve never said otherwise.
Liz was over scored, and this crying she does is so phoney. Why is it Val looks so unhappy. He raves about her in s blog, but when they dance, nothing. My heart went out to Corbin last night, WTH was Karina thinking