Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers
The first thing that popped into my head when looking at the numbers was, “Damn, Bill has a shot here.” Seriously, he really could. And when they add another 50 – 60 points to each couple, it could get better. But I skip ahead. The table below shows my estimated scores along with the actual scores.
Gee, when all is said and done, the two “shocking” scores are the only ones I wasn’t either on target or very close with – does anyone think this is coincidental?? I don’t. I mean, they weren’t natural or normal, so there you go.
Now, 4 points seems like a lot, between Bill and Jack/Corbin, but it only translates to 13k votes per million votes cast. That’s a middling number – not low, not super high. Maybe it’s my wishful thinking, but I think Bill can get that over Jack. Probably not Corbin, because I can’t believe they would risk him with a shit score if he wasn’t getting the votes. Of course, ABC just had a commercial that said something along the lines of “Don’t miss the first minute, or you’ll miss a big announcement” – Linz on twitter saw it and she thinks it’s something about JLo performing, someone else said she might be guest judging – I’m thinking they’re going to have a double elimination surprise. And yes, I know Derek said there wasn’t one – but that’s the whole point of a “surprise” right? My cynical brain says that they didn’t announce it last week or put it in the press release because they wanted to see what the votes looked like first. Which could be bad news for Bill and Jack. Anyway, let’s look at how the vote requirements stand after the end of Monday’s show.
Besides Bill, Corbin, Jack and Snicole are all down there in potential danger. Leah is too, if it’s a double elimination. If we look at it as a possible double, it REALLY makes my brain hurt, so it might be easiest if I do a bullet list of my thoughts.
- Bill would need 13k votes per million votes cast to get past either Jack or Corbin;
- Assuming Bill CAN’T get past Corbin, in a double elimination he would have to get past another person too, most likely Leah (17.3k) or Nicole (26k). I think he gets past Leah;
- If Bill gets past two people, that leaves Corbin and Jack at the bottom. I believe that Corbin is getting the votes and is safe – that leaves Jack;
- Jack would need to get past TWO people also, to be safe, such as Leah (4.4k votes per million) or Nicole (13k) or Brant (17.3k). I think he can beat Leah, but not Nicole or Brant.
- Presuming that Bill is safe, Corbin is safe and Jack only gets past one person, that brings us to Leah. Now, in a single elimination Jack getting past Leah would mean that Jack is safe. In a double elimination he would have to get past two people – and I don’t think he can, so I think he’s the second eliminate in a double.
- I think Jack can get the 4.4k votes per million votes cast to get past Leah, and I think Leah can get the 8,600 votes per million votes cast to get past Nicole. The question is, can Nicole get the 4.4k votes per million votes cast to get past Brant? Possibly.
My guess is, that if these numbers didn’t change, in a single elimination it would come down to Jack and Nicole, because while Jack might get past Leah, he might not be able to get past Nicole, and Nicole may or may not be able to get past Brant. Leah is a wild card. In a double elimination, I think/hope it comes down to two of the following three leaving: Jack, Nicole and Leah. I could be over estimating Bill, but I really don’t want to be.
So, what happens when they add in an individual dance score and a team dance score to all couples? Well, it’s a shit storm really. And with the oh-so-special brand of crack that Len has been smoking who knows what the hell is going to happen. Here’s who’s dancing what for their individual dance so far:
Amber – Paso Doble
Corbin – Cha Cha Cha
Brant and Jack – Jive
Liz and Bill – Quickstep
Nicole – Samba
Leah – Salsa
Gee, I’m sure it’s totally a coincidence that Liz and Bill are doing the same dance. (/sarcasm) Okay, if Derek is healthy, I’m pretty sure they can pull off a great Paso Doble and still only get a mediocre score for it, thanks to Len.
Corbin will get a 30 for his cha cha because that is one of the easier dances and it will be week 7 – nearly time to start the redemption arc. Liz will get a 29 or 30 because, god help us, we can’t NOT prop her up just in case!! Bill will get hosed regardless of what he does…do I sound cynical? I am. I think Nicole will do very well on Samba and get a decent score for it. I suspect that Tony will do cliché and simple salsa choreo for Leah and she’ll get a 27 or so. I do think this will be a Hope Solo path, although Leah is a much better dancer than Hope (boy, is that bar set low or WHAT?), in that she’ll get a score that will shock the crap out of her next week because they’ll start to get real. Brant and Jack on Jive. Man, tough call. Honestly, I think both will have a bit of trouble with it, but Brant might get a bit of help from the judges. Jack, on the other hand, will probably not.
Team dances…if Team FoxingAwesome doesn’t wipe the floor with Team Bom Bom, then there’s something rotten in Denmark. I suppose that Derek’s team could have something disastrous happen – like the song was too crazy and shit just falls apart – but on paper this team is a shoe in to win. Team dances started in Season 7 and that is still probably my favorite of the team dances because it was just so unexpected. And Derek’s team has won every time since then. He’s destined for a loss, but I just can’t imagine it this season. Nothing I’ve seen from him thus far has indicated dry spell, so….anyway, here are my predictions:
See, this is what’s crazy about the lack of an elimination last week plus two dances this week. A huge number of total points awarded. As a result, Bill went from a 3 point deficit, to a 5 point deficit, but the number of votes he needs to be safe shrank dramatically. This past Monday, he needed 13k votes per million votes cast to beat either Corbin or Jack and stick around. If the scores are even remotely similar to what I’ve shown above (and really, with this many points you can switch it around a good bit and not make a difference), he only needs about 7.5k votes per million votes cast to beat either Jack or Leah. I think he can do this. See below…
The problem is, of course, the team dance. Bill is on the weaker team, as is Leah. If they do significantly worse than Derek/Amber’s team he and Leah could need a bit more. I tend to doubt this. I don’t think the judges want Liz on a team that does badly, whether they deserve it or not. I can almost hear the commentary now, about giving them a break since they were so clearly the weaker team. Bollocks.
Anyway, look at table 4 – look how small those numbers are between Bill and all the couples. This week should be somewhat revealing. If it is a single elimination, I think Bill could very well be safe. He only needs 7.5k votes per million votes cast in my scenario to beat either Leah or Jack – I think he beats both of them.
What about Jack and Leah? Besides needing ONE more vote to beat each other, they need the following:
– Jack/Leah need 6k votes per million votes cast to beat Nicole, or;
– Jack/Leah need 7.5k votes per million votes cast to beat Corbin, or;
– Jack/Leah need 9k votes per million votes cast to beat Brant, or;
– Jack/Leah need 12k votes per million votes cast to beat Amber or Liz.
Now, if Bill beats Jack and Leah and it’s a single elimination, then either Jack or Leah need one vote more than the other to stick around. I think Leah beats Jack. That puts Jack as the single eliminee because Bill and Leah both beat him and I don’t think he gets the votes to pass Nicole, Corbin, Brant, Amber or Liz. If he can get past Nicole, then Nicole would be in trouble. He would need 6k votes per million votes cast to do it.
But what if they spring a double elimination on us?? Well, I think that Bill beats Jack and Leah. I think Leah beats Nicole and Jack, which would leave Jack and Nicole in the bottom. This would not be my preference. My preference would be that Leah can’t beat Nicole and she and Jack go home in a double.
In a single elimination, I think Jack goes home. In a double elimination, I think it will be Jack and Nicole or Jack and Leah. I guess we have to wait and see. I could be way off base – and if the judges are as crazy or crazier this week, then all bets are off. Now, if the judges ARE crazy (crazy determined to get rid of him) or Bill does a bad quickstep and only scores a 21, with all other scores being about right?? Bill’s margin that he needs to overcome to beat Leah and/or Jack increases to 12k more votes per million votes cast. I don’t know if he can do it, but I have a feeling we’re going to find out on Monday. If the judges give him a 24 – I think he’s staying, either because of the small margin or because the judges have resigned themselves to him staying another week. If they give him a 21 on a dance that is worthy of more? Start praying, Bill fans. I hope you voted.
Discuss. 😀
Great Job Heidi. 🙂
Question: Would JLo be available to judge while under contract to judge on AI? Is she ballroom trained? Or is she a singer that just shakes her booty in ridiculous outfits.
Doesn’t surprise me in the least about Jack. He is forgettable.
Hope and pray that all of us Bill fans have not let him and Emma down this week.
thanks heidi great job 🙂
i actually prefer a double elimination this week and jack and leah out
for me there too many couples standing now i want to get real lol
hope that bill can make it he’s a really nice guy
Well, the numbers could be *much* worse. I think that, if PH’s predictions are anywhere close, then Bill is safe (yay!!!), because I think he’s bringing in some votes. In addition to the fans he’s gained since the show started, he does have a previous fan base, and while I don’t how large it is, he has been doing this a long time, and probably many of his fans come from the Midwest and the South – and the sense I get is that those fans are *loyal* (look at country music fans). At least, this is what I’m hoping. 🙂
Other that being pretty certain that Amber will be safe (as well as Elizabeth, since they’ve been propping her up), I really have no idea how any one else is doing. I find it interesting that they haven’t done a real bottom two at *all* this season. Last season they had the bottom two almost every week until the last couple. Why the change? What makes them decide if they’re going to do a real bottom two or not?
I’m hoping that Leah and someone else that is not Bill, Amber or Corbin goes home; first preference would be Elizabeth, but that’s not happening. I like Jack, Nicole, and Brant and don’t really want to see any them leave quite yet, but I can’t pick who I would choose out of the three of them.
I will be interesting to see if they do a double elimination or not.
Well, if DWTS let Amber on the show, then they would let JLo – question is, would AI? Probably.
I just have a hard time believing that ANY guest judge would warrant a “don’t miss the first minute” promo. That sounds more like an announcement that affects the elimination in some way. If not a double elimination, then a similar announcement to what they did a couple weeks ago “As of right now, with just the viewer votes, a man is leaving us tonight…”
The other thing I could see the surprise announcement is someone withdrawing due to injury or something else crazy (not that I’ve heard that anyone is injured) – and that they’re still going to eliminate at the end of the show. Then two people would still be leaving, but they wouldn’t be having a double elimination.
Sigh… the surprise announcement *being*
Apparently there’s a glitch happening between my brain and my fingers, because I’ve been leaving verbs out of my last couple of posts. They’re there when I’m thinking the sentence in my head…
I voted Bill & Emma so now I’ll commence with the prayers ’cause I’m not putting any faith in the judging after last week and with the possibility of a guest judge too!
Would J Lo guest judging not be a bit of BS……considering she is a friend of one of the Celebs?
It was different when JH judged, she is a former pro on the show. Heck I’m even good with Maks judging just for the comic relief it would bring but J Lo is on camera as Leah’s support system. I might take a bit of an issue with that.
Jlo = Leah’s friend. Julianne = Derek’s sister and Mark’s friend
To many, JLo is no more objectionable than Julianne.
First of all, thank you so much Heidi for doing these “Dancing by the Numbers” posts every week! It seems like a lot of work, and I always love reading it and getting some real perspective on who’s in danger of going home next week.
I am really ready for Leah to go home. Like other people, I have been really turned off by her attitude throughout the season, especially the last couple weeks. I feel like every other celebrity this season, even the other “non dancers”, are working hard and embracing the process fully, and she isn’t. And I think she’s one of the weakest dancers left, along with Bill (who I adore and don’t want to leave yet) and maybe Jack. However, she does seem to have some loyal fans, so I am worried that she could surpass Jack and possibly Nicole in votes and stay another week.
I really do like Jack (he’s fun and has a great personality), but sadly I also think he isn’t getting a lot of votes. I don’t see a lot of discussion or chatter about him online, which isn’t the only predictor of votes but it probably means something. I’d really love for him to stay over Leah, but if he and Leah end up with the same amount of points or close to it, I also think he would be in danger.
As long as Brant, Amber, and Corbin are safe, I’ll be pretty happy. They’re my favorites this season! I’m sure Amber and Corbin are getting enough votes, so I’m not worried about them. I’m kind of worried for Brant, but he did great on Monday and I’d like to think he has enough votes behind him, especially with his PLL fanbase. I’m also happy to see that Heidi thinks Bill will be safe, as long as he doesn’t get lowballed with scores. He is such a joy to watch, and I hope he sticks around a little longer. I also think Nicole deserves to stay for a few more weeks. And I think Elizabeth will be safe and probably make it to the semifinals at least, especially with the judges’ help. Honestly, I wouldn’t be upset if she went home-I don’t dislike her, but I’m still having a hard time connecting with her.
So, I think that Leah and Jack are in danger of going home on Monday. It will also be interesting to see if the “big announcement” at the beginning of the show is a double elimination. If it turns out to just be a single elimination (like they originally said), I very much hope that we get to say goodbye to Leah.
Just a thought too: The team dances may be a factor in who goes home. I’m thinking and hoping that Team FoxingAwesome will do better than Team SpookyBomBom, as long as the judges don’t act crazy. And in the past, hasn’t someone from the losing team usually ended up going home? That might not be the case anymore since the votes are cast ahead of time, but it could still apply. And if that’s the case, that makes me think that Leah, Nicole, and Bill could possibly be in jeopardy.
My gut plus what I see online suggests Amber & Derek are raking in the votes. But do you really think Corbin is?
I really have no clue as to what will happen. I hope it is a double elimination because as Maria above said, I’m ready for it to get real haha.
I will refuse to watch if JLo sings and/or judges. I will find something better to do with my time.
PH, thanks for doing this every week. I get a headache reading it and making sense out of it. I can understand how you feel like your head is going to explode. But it is appreciated!
I’m hoping for Leah to go more than I’ve ever wanted to see someone leave, with the exception of Bristol. Please, just go away and take Tony with you.
If it’s a double elimination, I’m thinking Jack or Brant but would love to see it be Elizabeth. If it was the two of them, my night would be made.
I pretty much agree with everything Alyssa said 🙂 The only thing I would maybe change is that I’m happy as long as Amber, Corbin, Snooki and Bill are safe. I would add Brant in there but then that’s more than half the cast and I shouldn’t be greedy hahaha!
I really do think the team dances might end up making a difference especially for Leah and Jack. If you assume Jack ends up with more points from the team dance than Leah then I’m pretty sure Leah will go home. If it’s a double elimination? Leah and Jack probably.
And yes, thank you thank you thank Heidi for doing all this work each week! Just looking at it makes my head hurt but also makes understanding the eliminations easier!
Actually Cher, I’m really liking this new plan! If Bill leaves we riot, storm the stage and give wedgies!
Of course, I’m starting at the judges table….
If it comes to rioting, storming the stage, & wedgie giving, can I call dibbs on setting fire to the judge’s table?
Once again, just excellent Heidi!!! I couldn’t wait to get home and read what your numbers said this time and who you think will go home. Whatever happens, just please let it be Leah to go home. I’m so over her like I was Bristol too.
I am thinking this season is not that close in voting just yet. My guess is that they may say that after the scores and voting last week that the potential eliminations this week are on the same team. That would be pressure and it wouldn’t surprise me with the wY the teams are split.
I don’t see JLO guest judging with Carrie Ann.I heard they didn’t like each other back in their Fly Girls day’s. I would love to see JLO guest judge though.
Thanks for all the hard work, always love this post.
I think Leah will be scored higher for salsa, isn’t her husband a salsa dancer? Not that it would help her in the least since she’s not a dancer. And I don’t think they’ll give Corbin a 30 even if it’s very well deserved, CAI will see some kind of lift or comment on lack of chemistry or something, Bruno will notice some bobbles, and who knows what grumpy old man will criticize. Also I don’t think they’ll score Bill as high as you’ve predicted.
Which prediction, Jess? The 24 or the 21?? Perhaps you should read the whole thing?
I am really curious to see the under/over scoring of the Team Dances. I think this will go a long way to further reveal the judges agendas for this season.
Has there ever been a Tie for the Team Dances? Or is there always a winner, per se? I can’t remember.
Emma seems really excited for their Team Dance, so I am holding onto some hope that it may not suck as much as I had previously thought.
In season 12, the hines ward, kirsie alley and chelsea kane season there was a tie in the team dances.
According to Sashas latest tweet “Iamvalc did an amazing job with the team dance” it looks like val was in charge. Im glad they decided the freestyle group dances again with so many pros and celebs on a team it can make for some good dances like the ones in the all star season. Both should be good.
Thanks Kelly. I love DWTS but my memory isn’t what it used to be. 🙂
I wouldn’t be surprised if the judges underscore Corbin again. On his foxtrot there was no specific reason for Len giving him a 9, but he did. CA said she took a point off for the lifts, so Bruno was the only one who gave him a 10. Len doesn’t like Corbin. He loves to underscore him. Also, the judges seem confused about the fact that Corbin is the celeb, not the pro. Did anyone notice Bruno’s comment about the “finish” on the VW? That’s not Corbin’s job, it’s Karina’s.
I was hoping Liz would be gone by now. Wishful thinking. I really hope she doesn’t make it to finals. I want Val/Liz and Tony/Leah out of there.
I think there was one tie.
Yes, I’ve seen lots of hype from Team Bom Bom – kinda like we saw from Team Gangnam Style. I hope it’s not that bad.
I may live to regret the words that are about to come out of my mouth and appear on this screen but nothing could possibly be worse than the hot mess that was Gangnam Style. Think positive thoughts get positive results!
That being said.
Please be gentle tomorrow night when you say I told you so.
And bring lots of Tequila.
Tequila good.
I like your new plan General Cher! I hope I like Tequila……
Gonna go out & get limes… 😀
I’m contemplating sacrificing a chicken later. 🙂
When I hear “Val is in charge”, I worry for the dignity of his team members.
Oh well. We already know they’ll all be naked.