Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 10 – Dancing by the Numbers
Well. As I said last week, if you score normally, and don’t make the margin between the upper tier of dancers super tiny, then you stop having “shocking” eliminations. It only took them ten weeks to figure it out. Or maybe Leah had just served her purpose of getting more famous people in the audience. Either way, she was eliminated and it didn’t take much for that to happen. Here are the judges scores for both dances – those in grey are my predictions…well, my second set of predictions. 🙂 I wasn’t sure which way they were going to go with. Glad they selected option number 2. 🙂
These scores led to the following vote requirements.
Note that in week 9, the margin between Leah and Liz was less than 7k votes. This week, when they aren’t over inflating everyone’s score trying to get rid of Bill, Leah needed well more than 17k votes per million votes cast to get to Jack, Amber or Corbin. Here’s what caused her to be eliminated – all of the following happened:
– Bill got at least 14.3k more votes per million votes cast than Leah, AND;
– Leah didn’t get 17.2k more votes per million votes cast than Jack, AND;
– Leah didn’t get 28.6k more votes per million votes cast than Corbin, AND;
– Leah didn’t get 40k more votes per million votes cast than Amber.
Pretty simple. Easy enough margin for Bill to beat, big enough margin between her and Jack that Leah didn’t have the juice. It’s as I suspected. I have a feeling if they had scored her up closer to Jack, Jack might have been eliminated. And that would have sucked.
Anyway, looking back is pretty easy. Determining what is going to happen next is not so simple. Here’s how I think it should go:
1) Corbin or Amber
2) Corbin or Amber
3) Jack
4) Bill
But will it actually end up this way?? I have a sneaking suspicion that it’s not going to work out in an obvious way. Who will be the one making too early an exit?? As I said in the Odds post, I waffle terribly on this question. Every five minutes. 🙂
So what am I relatively sure of? I’m sure that I don’t like the Monday night elimination. The freestyle is a big deal and one that has affected the competition (usually costing someone) in big ways. This season, fourth place is determined NOT based on the freestyle, but on viewer votes from the previous week. Now, in a way, this is usual. Only once in 17 seasons have they had a true four person finale, so normally the fourth place couple wouldn’t even get to dance a freestyle. So it’s a win in that way. But what if, say, Corbin didn’t do that well in votes last week but he absolutely slays the freestyle?? Too bad, if the judges scores aren’t enough to save him. Viewers can’t change their minds and vote for him. What if someone got lots of votes last week, like Bill, but his fans get swamped by finale voters that would vote for Corbin or Amber?? Well, he gets to stay based on last week, but Corbin, Amber or Jack get eliminated. I guess that’s the way the cookie crumbles – and I guess the freestyle still could work to determine the winner the next night. Conversely, if someone does a crap freestyle, they could still easily make it through Monday night based on votes from the previous week. It will be interesting in any case – and I still believe that a crap freestyle has much more effect on the outcome than a great one. 🙂
I think that, this week, Bill will continue to get 8’s – but will get at least two 9’s thrown in. It’s the finale – the judges will be inclined to throw a couple of those his way because they like to be right. They’ll want to justify his place in the finale. But then again, they won’t get too carried away because they won’t want to risk the other three. Not that it will matter – I feel like there is a good chance he will end up in third place. 🙂 Anyway, I think they’re going to be throwing lots of 9’s and 10’s to the other three couples and mostly 8’s with a couple 9’s to Bill – with three dances on Monday night, this will create a large enough margin (theoretically) that the top 3 should still be safe. We’ll find out. 🙂
But, then again, how will they be scoring the samba relay?? Like the marathon-ish thing they did earlier in the season? Ten to first place, 8 to second, 6 to third and 4 points to last place?? That creates a much bigger margin and might be too much – and will have too much influence on who wins. So I’m thinking they might go with 10, 9, 8, and 7.
Okay, let’s break it down. Here’s what each couple is dancing on Monday night:
Corbin: Quickstep (Week 3 – 26), Samba Relay (Never), Freestyle
Amber: Charleston (Week 3 – 24), Samba Relay (Week 6 – 28), Freestyle
Jack: Jive (Week 7 – 27), Samba Relay (Week 9 – 25), Freestyle
Bill: Viennese Waltz (Week 5 – 24), Samba Relay (Week 4 – 21), Freestyle
In parentheses is the week they previously danced it and the score they received. How the hell did they pick these dances?? They chose high scoring dances for Jack, Corbin and Bill (for him), yet chose a low scoring dance for Amber?? What the hell? Why? Looking at it another way, they also picked dances for Corbin, Amber and Jack that may not play to their strengths. I don’t get the rationale at all. Jack’s dance was not only high scoring but also a lot more recent than Corbin’s and Amber’s. They’ll have some ‘splainin’ to do. To top it off, Jack just did Samba in week 9. True that Corbin has never done Samba, but that dance will likely be a piece of cake for him – totally in his wheelhouse.
Anyway, based on the previous scores each couple received, I predict that each couple is going to improve in the finale. I also predict that Corbin wins the Samba relay, Amber is second, Jack third and then Bill last. The following are the scores I’m guessing:
Now, if the scores turn out similar to this, here’s what everyone needs to make it through Monday night:
Based on this, I’m going to say that Bill is the one eliminated. You’ll note that I’ve given Bill a total of four nines across the two regularly scored dances. The Samba Relay widens the margin and with there being three dances where the others are likely to do very well, even with 9s Bill is likely to be a good bit behind Jack, Amber and Corbin. In order for Bill to be safe, one of the following would have to happen:
– Bill would have to get just over 30k votes per million votes cast to get past Jack, OR;
– Bill would have to get 37.8k votes per million votes cast to get past Amber, OR;
– Bill would have to get 41.6k votes per million votes cast to get past Corbin.
I’m going to guess he doesn’t make it – and I could certainly be wrong. I’m not sure of anything right now. 🙂 Before some of you start shouting about how Bill had beaten wider margins, you have to remember that it’s not just Bill getting votes, it’s other couples NOT getting votes that helps him beat the margin. In the final four, theoretically, everyone left is doing pretty well vote wise and a larger margin won’t be so easy to beat. Scores do matter.
If Bill does manage to beat someone, what does Jack need to beat either Amber or Corbin?? One of the following:
– Jack needs 7,600 more votes per million votes cast than Amber, OR;
– Jack needs 11.4k more votes per million votes cast than Corbin.
This is where things get tricky. I’m not convinced of Corbin’s fanbase, although neither he nor Amber have ever been put in “jeopardy”. I think Amber might be doing better in terms of votes and if Jack is going to beat anyone it might be Corbin. But that’s only important at this point if Bill beats the spread. And I don’t know if that will happen. IF the judges give Bill a lot more 9’s than I’ve anticipated, then I predict that Bill is sticking around and someone else is going, possibly Jack.
I sense that if Bill makes it through over Jack, Bill is for sure third place. When you add the fourth dance, the margin will just be too great for Bill to beat it, on either Corbin or Amber. If Bill makes it through at either Amber or Corbin’s expense, then the one of those two left will almost certainly win, unless Jack scores a lot higher than I predict. IF either Jack or Bill score much higher than I predict, brace for an upset. That guy is likely going to the final and could take the whole thing. Could happen to Jack, unlikely that Bill gets those kind of scores. But you never know.
If Bill is eliminated on Monday, then it’s a LOT trickier. Let’s make the assumption that Bill is eliminated and add in the fourth dance (I’m only going with the odds here – there’s no way we can explore every scenario):
Table 5 has all four dances, table 6 shows the votes needed to win.
As you can see, there is virtually nothing separating Amber and Corbin – certainly enough for the “Derek can’t have another trophy” gang to possibly play spoiler for AMBER. But Jack ain’t out of it. Less than 14k votes for him to beat either Amber or Corbin.
Honestly, if the scores are this close and Bill is eliminated on Monday night, then I’m really not sure who’s going to win. Part of me is starting to think that Corbin might not make it. I think any of the three could win.
Discuss.
I was hoping you’d have time to get this one done today, can’t imagine how much work these are especially this season with having to do a retrospective and then a huge amount of educated predictions. There’s so much information to read and think about, get my head around so I have nothing to say now as far as discussion, only to say thank you! I always look so forward to this post.
thank u heidi great post
like you my opinion change every time i think about it
i think corbin or amber will leave fourth i don’t know i have this weird feeling
if amber doesn’t leave on monday i think she got a shot to the trophe i am pretty sure she will kill her freestyle and so will corbin
more i think about it more i change my mind
i’m beginning to doubt what i have been writing so i will stop now LOL
I’m so glad I don’t have to predict a winner. It’s pretty awesome that even you all feel the same way, yet take the time and thought needed to give us posts like this one.
My head is saying vote for Corbin, but my heart is saying vote for Jack. So we’ll see which three are left standing at the end of Monday’s show.
I do wonder about Jack’s votes and hope he has enough to get through to Tues, and wonder if he’s a potential surprise finisher. I’ve always liked him, but last week threw me over the edge to giving him all my votes. His was such an emotional night with joy, humour, overcoming all odds, an emotional family and a really nice bond he’s developed with Cheryl. It hit all the sentimental notes for me. Plus his AT was really great. He overtook Bill as the feel good choice for me last week. I have no idea the size of his fan base, but feel like he may have received more votes last week, like he did mine.
First, let me start by saying that I like all the finalists and am happy with whoever takes it. They’ve all worked their butts off, and deserve the reward for that.
Now, here’s my little game theory regarding the finale. Amber has been a lock-in for top 3 since the beginning. Jack has been the judges favorite for quite a while, and he truly is a great poster for the winner of this season. But he needed support all along for his dancing to pick up and the viewers to embrace his story.
Now, on paper, the last person in the top 3 could have been Corbin, though they needed to be really tough on him because of the dance experience. But, in the meantime, somewhere mid-season, Bill started racking all these votes and all the support from the core audience. And as much as TBTP tried, they could not get rid of Bill. This whole game of let’s see if we can get rid of Bill or not has now become a bonus entertainment game, in addition to the dancing show.
So if Bill earned his place in the top 3 along with Amber, who to support: Jack or Corbin? And I think the producers chose to sacrifice Corbin to keep Jack in. This may explain the not-so-great song and unfavorable package Corbin got in the semi-finals.
It may also explain the choice for his dances coming into the final. I am not sure Corbin will get a 10 from Len on the quickstep.
However, I am grateful for all the freestyles we will be treated with on Monday night! It will be a fun night for sure, up until the elimination.
Oh… I actually forgot to say I enjoy this post, like all the others, so thanks PH for the analysis.
Let’s just say, Jess, that I’m EXTREMELY glad I only have to do one more for a while. 🙂 Thanks.
Such a great post as always! Thanks so much and I think you are right for who will be eliminated on Monday. I love Bill, but, I can’t see him beating the other three. For the win, I think it will be between Corbin and Amber!
Princess Heidi, I appreciate you SO much when you do these posts. As someone who loves math, I really appreciate your ability to think both mathematically and logically. It is something that I have to work on, and I am blown away by your ability to think of so many different scenarios.
In terms of the finals, I really don’t care who wins. Personally, I am on the feminist side, so I find myself rooting for Amber. However, I was also that High School Musical kid when I was younger, which makes me want to root for Corbin. Jack is such a mush, in the best way. Meaning that he is sweet and fun and seems to be easy to get along with. He must be an amazing father. And Bill is just great. I think it will be Amber or Corbin to win, but I don’t care who actually wins.
amber the only women left and I hope she win because she had to put up with a lot negativity this season and she keep her head up the whole time and stayed positive with a good sprit .she worked hard to get to where she at so amber and Derek go win this:))
Excellent post. Thanks Heidi. This post makes me think how many votes I have to give on monday night for my favorite to keep them safe. Hope the best for all the finalists. 🙂
I’m always fascinated by your numbers post, Princess Heidi, even if all the the time I have to read twice to fully grasp everything, LOL!!! Reading this and knowing that Monday and Tuesday are the final days of this season, give me some sort of withdrawal symptoms! Sort of a gut-wrench.
The numbers in the last part show that Jack could take the win. I won’t be sad if he does. I’m okay with that. Heck, I’m actually okay with any of the four couples winning despite having my own favorites.
Thank you to the mods for all you do on this site! 😀
Well this whole thing just makes me nervous. I thought for sure Derek and Shawn would take it and then they lost. Then I wanted Derek and Kellie to take it, and they did, but I really thought Zendaya would win. Now I would like to see Amber and Derek take it, not just because Derek is my favorite pro, but mostly due to Amber. She would break all kinds of stereotypes if she wins. “Big girls can’t dance.” I don’t think anyone predicted before the season that she might win it. In fact, as I recall there was a lot of gloating and haters out there saying how Derek wouldn’t be able to work his “magic” with her. They seemed to revel in the fact that she couldn’t be a “ringer.” She also has broken so many stereotypes about people who are overweight. She dances like a dream. She is clearly an entertainer. She works hard. She also I hope on some level has given young people who carry extra weight of the consequences it can have on your body. I say that with all the love in my heart, because although I have lost over 100 lbs in the last year, I still have a ways to go. I have other issues than just my weight, but the impact it had on my physical body is horrific. So I am so proud of her and how she has handled it and let everyone know the physical struggles she has gone through. I lift my glass in a toast to both Amber and Derek for their determination and their heart.
@Lynne – I agree about Amber overcoming huge hurdles this season and the message that this show sends to their viewers but in my opinion, Jack (with his MS) and/or Bill have overcome many obstacles as well to make that top 4. This is the first time in many seasons that I really don’t care who wins, they are all worthy of that trophy.
And Bravo to you Lynne for losing over 100 lbs. Stay healthy and strong.
I wasn’t trying to say that Amber had a greater issue and I wasn’t trying to minimize Bill or Jack’s issues either. It was just a comment on Amber. Derek will always be my favorite pro. But, this year, I won’t be really unhappy regardless of who takes it him.
Well, looking at the numbers here make me reconsider my predictions from the Odds post – I was thinking Corbin might get eliminated fourth, but based on these numbers, that seems pretty impossible. I think PH’s score predictions for Monday are probably pretty on target, based on past finals, so Corbin would *really* have to be lacking votes from last week to have Bill beat him. I still think either Amber or Jack will win though.
One thing I’m pretty sure of, though, is that we will get four really good freestyles – usually there’s a dud in there somewhere, but Derek always brings it (and what he says about their freestyle in his blogs sounds like it will be really cool), Karina knows how to do a good freestyle and will bring it (especially since Corbin’s a great dancer), Cheryl’s choreography this season has been great, and Emma will be bringing fun. I’m *so* looking forward to Monday!
Thanks for this, Heidi! I also look forward to this post every week. I think that it will come down to Corbin/ Amber also- But i think that Corbin will most likely win the whole thing. I think Jack will most likely take 3rd place.
As we are moving towards the end of this season i want to thank you, Courtney, Vouge, John (and whoever else works on this site) for all your hard work!
I see so many people saying they don’t really care who wins; they would be fine with any of them. That’s my feeling as well. If that feeling is carrying over into the general viewership, I wonder if voting by the “average viewer” will be down. If so, does that mean those who came in with devoted fan bases will have a bigger advantage than they usually do?
I really don’t think Amber is as “overweight” as the haters claim, but hey it’s their opinion. Amber might just win this thing , the Gleek fan base is pretty big . She is the only one with a solid fan base IMO , but I love them all so I don’t care who wins
My head is telling me to vote for Amber, but my heart is saying Jack. So barring something unexpected tomorrow night, that’s probably how I’ll be voting. All four deserve to be where they are, I love Bill, but would love to see Jack win this. His journey has been one that I’m glad I was able to see. He’s brought back the good, caring, human Cheryl. She’s worked around Jack’s issues, when he’s hurt, when he’s tired, and still pulled out some really good dances all season. When she broke down last week, I had tears in my eyes too. She’s made a connection with him that we haven’t seen in a long time and I hope we see again next season. Is Jack better than Amber or Corbin? No. But he represents everything this show is supposed to be about and I’m hoping he comes out on top.
I would also like to thank all of you for your work and dedication on this site. I look forward to reading each and every one. This site has made me understand the dancing and enjoy the show more. Thank you!
Even though I don’t post, I want to thank you for this great site and let you know that I love coming here! What a lot of work and it is appreciated!
@Aly She’s really not.Fashion of Glee is a site that sources the glee cast outfits and most of her clothing more recently has been from brands that don’t have merchandise in anything above a size 12. She just has a lot of butt and a lot of boobs on a 5 foot tall body.
It will be interesting how the order of freestyles is determined. I am sure Zendaya going after Kellie last year hurt her in voting. Will the powers to be keep Derek last because of his past histories of outstanding freestyles? Will they put Corbin the best technical dancer?
Oh, PH, a question. If Bill gets a 10, what do you think that will do to the results?
I feel like it might come down to Amber and Jack, but I really have no idea how people are voting. I just haven’t heard too many people say they’re planning to vote for Corbin in the final, that could be a sign.
As I said in the post, if Bill or Jack get several tens, watch out for an upset.
All my votes are going to Amber & Derek. I would love to see them win. Having said that, I like all the finalists this year, so will be happy with whoever takes it. But I feel in my gut, it’s going to be Amber & Derek. Really looking forward to their freestyle!