Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I kinda have to laugh. Why? Well, besides the large number of people (and websites) who thought that the picture Derek posted of a baby doing a push up was actually him…there were just so many people freaking out over Meryl’s score this week. Sheer panic. Lots of hysteria and a few requests for me to do my numbers post early.  Why is this funny? Well, because some of these same people who are now a tad panicked are the same ones who said, when I was complaining about Meryl being propped up, “hey, it’s just a silly dance show.”  LOL. So much for the “silly dance show.”  I’ll throw it back to you – It’s just a silly dance show. It’s not world peace.  And before you get all hoity toity and claim I’m only saying that because Amy is at the top of the leader board, I ask you to please point to where I ever expected her to win, prayed for her to win…hell, point to any post in the last two years or more where I got my knickers in a twist because Derek’s partner might not win.  I’m like Derek these days – it’s not about winning any more. And Amy has already won. She won the first time she danced on prosthetics in front of millions of people. That is a massive victory, along with a massive inspiration.

Of course, every coin has two sides. The other side of this coin is the sick feeling I get when I read the comments some of these so-called fans (more like sociopaths – look it up) leave on Amy’s instagram and on youtube videos of her dances. Really – seek professional help. If you have nothing better to do than storm around the internet throwing mud on anything with Amy’s name on it (and to a lesser extent, Candace), you should reconsider your LIFE. As in, you don’t have one and you should get one.  Maks wonders why he’s never won? He needs to look at his fans and see how they’re spending their time. He might make it this time, but it will likely be thanks to the massive skating fandom that comes with Meryl and her ringiness.  I gotta tell you though – his and Val’s (re Zendaya’s) fans get ugly every single season, and it has the same effect every single season – the fans of the other couples vote HARDER. When are you folks going to learn to make friends not enemies?  Or at the least IGNORE the people you don’t like! Geez.  Why do you insist on making your path to the MBT harder??

The numbers, the numbers…this will be one of those weeks were a certain set of fans will be hoping that they DO include Danica’s totals in the mix, because they look a tad scary otherwise. But not really. Do you people REALLY think that they would put Meryl in jeopardy if they believed there was any chance she was going home?? Seriously??  If they were worried about her, they would have turned a blind eye to that non-rumba much like they did earlier on for her non-foxtrot. But, as the weeks go on and Meryl builds a fanbase within the general viewers AND the sheeple start believing she “has to” win – not to mention that there are fewer couples – she becomes pretty safe. Unless we’ve all just completely mis-read the situation, she’s going to make the final. I wager that Amy will as well. Not so sure about the other three. Someone’s gotta go and the margins are pretty small.

Wk 8 Table 1

As you can see from the table, above, Amy and Charlie have rather comfortable 9 and 8 point leads over Meryl, respectively.  But as most of you also know, a spot at or near the top of the leaderboard doesn’t mean a thing at this stage of the game. My biggest concern is for Charlie – the newbie skating fans don’t realize that in their rush to save the beloved Meryl, they may have bumped Charlie right out of the competition.  It could have happened to Amy, instead, but I’m thinking that Derek fans, at least, know better by now. I hope.  Anyway, how does the picture look for Meryl, James and Candace?

Wk 8 Table 2

As you can see, Meryl needs roughly 9k votes to stay over Candace and 11.1k votes per million votes cast to stay over James. I do think she’s beating James in votes. Is she beating him by enough? I guess we find out Monday. If she’s beating both James and Candace by a good margin, which is entirely possible, Candace only needs about 2,300 more votes per million votes cast than James – I think she gets it.

But before we get too far ahead, my instinct that waffles about whether they count Danica’s points or not is currently in the “not” position. Here’s what happens to the percentages if they don’t count Danica:

Wk 8 Table 3

Those numbers look a tad scarier, particularly at the top of the leader board. Suddenly Meryl needs 11k and 13.3k to beat Candace and James, respectively. I think she still beats at least James, but I guess you never know.

My gut says James goes home either way, but let’s look at the two that could suffer from being at the top of the leader board. ALL of the following would have to happen for Amy to be eliminated (using the higher numbers that come from not counting Danica):

  • Charlie would have to get 2,700 more votes per million votes cast than Amy; AND
  • James would have to get 10,700 more votes per million votes cast than Amy; AND
  • Candace would have to get 13,300 more votes per million votes cast than Amy; AND
  • Meryl would have to get 24,000 more votes per million votes cast than Amy

It could happen, but I think it’s unlikely that Candace and James manage that, at least.  I tend to think that no one is beating her this week, considering how far Meryl would have to go – but you have to remember, this week everyone only has to beat ONE person to be safe.  The fact that Candace, James and Charlie have all been in jeopardy could be telling, but more telling is that both James and Candace have been called safe LAST twice now. If you’ve read my post about “jeopardy” you know that sometimes that’s telling and sometimes it isn’t.

How about the lovely Charlie?? He’s the one I worry about more than Amy, thanks to the judges trying their best to keep him down. Interestingly, in rewatching several of his dances, even I have forgotten how good he is – as good as Meryl, I think. It just goes to show that even those of us who are long time watchers and analyzers of the show can get sucked into the agenda of TPTB. Just imagine for the average viewer! It’s starting to make me believe that he can’t win. Anyway, for Charlie to be eliminated on Monday night, ALL of the following would have to happen:

  • James would have to get 8,000 more votes per million votes cast than Charlie, AND;
  • Candace would have to get 10,700 more votes per million votes cast than Charlie, AND;
  • Meryl would have to get 21,300 more votes per million votes cast than Charlie, AND;
  • Charlie would have to NOT get 2,700 more votes per million votes cast than Amy.

I have NO real idea of what kind of votes Meryl is pulling in, but that’s a lot. In any case, I don’t think I believe that James and Candace are covering that spread. Charlie might be covering the spread to pass Amy, but I don’t know.

Okay, so the scenarios, in my mind, are…

  1. Meryl beats James and Candace but not Amy and Charlie, dropping James and Candace into the bottom two. Candace gets the 2,661 votes needed to stay over James, James goes home.
  2. Meryl beats all four of the people above her. Candace beats James and Charlie but not Amy, dropping them into the bottom two. James can’t get the 8k votes per million votes cast that he needs to beat Charlie, so James goes home.
  3. Variation on #2 – Meryl beats all four of the people above her. Candace beats James but not Charlie or Amy. James goes home.
  4. Meryl beats Candace, James and Charlie but not Amy. Candace can’t muster the votes to get past James, Charlie or Amy. Candace goes home.
  5. Meryl beats James and Charlie, but not Amy or Candace, dropping James and Charlie into the bottom two. Because the skating fans foolishly threw all their votes to Meryl, James gets the 8k votes more than Charlie and Charlie goes home.

Of course there are lots and lots of combinations or scenarios, but the four above are the most likely, to me. Which one will happen?? Well, I’ve put them in order of what I think is most likely.  I just don’t know if Meryl has that much of a lead on Amy and Charlie that she goes to the top of the leader board when votes are added in.  But she doesn’t have to – she only has to beat one person to be safe and I think that is extremely likely.

So, at the end of the day, I think Amy and Meryl are safe and James is the most likely person to be eliminated. Candace is second and Charlie a distant third. I just hope the skating fans weren’t too foolish and also that Charlie is getting enough love from the general audience. Half of me is expecting a “shocking” elimination of either Amy or Charlie – because of me saying this, obviously it won’t be all that shocking to me…but I’m still mainly leaning toward James.

What do you think?