DWTS Season 19, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers!

So, everyone was surprised to see Randy go – as was I. But in looking back to last weeks “Dancing by the Numbers” post, we probably shouldn’t have been. We’re dealing with SMALL numbers here, and Tavis and Randy were both in a four-way tie, only 11k votes per million votes cast above Michael.  What does that mean? Well, it means that for Betsey and Tommy to be safe, they only needed ONE more vote than Randy and Tavis. ONE.  It also means that Michael got 11k more vote per million votes cast than both Tavis and Randy (at least). Really, is that SO surprising? Watching Betsey and Tommy last night, I’m not surprised either of the survived. Michael over Tavis – yes, we called that. Michael over Randy?? Ummm…that’s a bit more surprising. But the DWTS audience has shown time and again that they love guys like Michael.  Problem is, they also love the Betsey’s and the Tommy’s – as do I.

That means one of two things. First is that Michael’s time has very possibly run out. The second is that if Michael’s time hasn’t run out, watch out Antonio.  But I get ahead of myself – I haven’t even looked at the numbers yet – that’s just my sense of things in Week 3, going into week four (ALREADY!!).

Anyway, let’s take a look at last night’s scores and percentages:

Table 1

Since Randy had a score awarded to him, I’ve included that in my total. Do they do it that way? Well, they say total judges points awarded, but who knows. At this stage it makes little difference in the votes needed.

As you can see, Bethany and Janel are way out in front and almost undoubtedly safe next week. Someone asked earlier today about the people who were underscored getting a ton of votes (Alfonso and Sadie) – my response was “sometimes”.  We thought that about Corbin, though, and Amber ended up winning. Is it possible that Janel and Bethany were being over scored because they aren’t getting the votes? Again, hard to say. Both dances were very good – I just don’t think 40’s should be handed out in week 3, but I also don’t think that either woman would end up going home in week 4 if they *didn’t* have a 40. There are still weaker dancers and weaker fanbases left in the competition.  For Janel and Bethany, the question is if their fanbases actually VOTE. Bethany’s is more massive than Janel’s but both are questionable in terms of voting. I do think one of them will be a shocking elimination in a few weeks and I tend to lean towards Janel, mainly because…Derek. Beth could have a bad dance due to her ankle, but Derek is a master and he’s never been a “shocking elimination”. Hard to say. It could be Beth if she has a bad dance the same week that Janel kills it.

But I digress – Michael is once again our low scorer that is still in the competition. What does Michael have to do to stay in the competition next week?

table 2

As you can see, Michael needs less than 3,000 votes per million votes cast to get past Antonio or Betsey. That is virtually nothing. Can he do it? I’m betting yes – but I’m not 100% confident on that one.  If he can’t get past either Betsey or Antonio, he needs roughly 8,500 votes per million votes cast to get past Lea. This is also doable, just not sure it’s happening. This is going to be a tough week to call, for sure.  Next in line, if he can’t get past Lea, Antonio or Betsey, is the triumvirate of Sadie, Jonathan and Alfonso – and I doubt VERY much he’s touching either Sadie or Alfonso. Not sure about Jonathan. In any case, he needs 11.4k votes per million votes cast to beat them.

I tend to think that Antonio and Lea are the weak links here. Neither one is making a huge impact – this is especially true for Antonio, but he has Cheryl, arguably the most popular female pro.  Tough week to call, people.   Let’s say that Michael DOES beat Betsey and Antonio – what do they have to do to be safe?

table 3

Geez, Betsey and Antonio only need 5,700 votes per million votes cast to get past Lea. And they each only need ONE vote per million votes cast to get past the other.  I tend to doubt that Antonio is beating either Betsey or Lea, but that might be because he’s not doing it for me.

I think that Sadie and Alfonso are safe because:

  • Michael needs 11,400 votes per million votes cast to get past them;
  • Betsey and Antonio need 8,500 votes per million votes cast to get past them, AND
  • Lea needs 2,900 more votes per million votes cast to get past them.

That leaves us with Jonathan. While he has the same score as Sadie and Alfonso, I’m really not sure that he’s getting the votes that I think Sadie and Alfonso are. So, while those two are likely safe from Michael, Betsey, Antonio and Lea, I’m not so sure that Jonathan is.

So where does that leave us? Well, I’ve already said that I think Bethany and Janel are safe. I think that Sadie and Alfonso are also safe for reasons shown above. Tommy? One of the most popular contestants and he’s got a five digit vote lead on Michael, Betsey, and Antonio, and nearly 9k vote lead on Lea. I don’t think Antonio, Lea or Michael can touch him right now. Safe.

That leaves us with Michael, Betsey, Antonio, Lea and Jonathan.  Can Michael get the roughly 11,400 votes per million votes cast to get past Jonathan?  I don’t think so, and I think that’s due to Betsey and Tommy. Like I said last season, there is usually only room for ONE person of a “type” and I think that Betsey and Tommy fill the role of quirky character that is an iffy dancer but loveable very nicely. So, I don’t think Michael is getting the Bill Votes to get past Jonathan.  I also have a hard time believing that Antonio is getting 8,500 votes to pass up Jonathan. So I think Jonathan is safe.

That leaves us with Michael, Betsey, Antonio and Lea.  I don’t think Michael beats Betsey – she’s just got too many people rooting for her and she’s actually dancing not horribly. I think Betsey is safe. What are Lea’s needs?

table 4

Michael, Antonio and Lea- I think it comes down to the three of them. I tend to think that Michael can get past Antonio, but not Lea. And I also tend to think that Antonio can’t get past Lea, and that Lea might be beating Jonathan.  GEEEZ, this is a hard week. Thanks for being patient and reading through my logic. But I think I’ve convinced myself that it comes down to these three with Michael making it one more week and Antonio going home.  I would not be at all surprised to find out that the bottom three consisted of Michael, Antonio and Lea OR Michael, Antonio and Jonathan.

I also would not be at all surprised to be wrong and find that Michael is going home. I would be more surprised if it was Lea or Jonathan.