New DWTS Season 19 Week 4 Las Vegas Odds: What do you think?
The odds makers at Sports Bovada have made their new predictions. It’s amazing how tight they are this season for the top seven. Have we ever had that many contestants so close like that? Note too how Tommy Chung just entered this top group as well and rightfully so in my opinion. *sigh in remembering his “Scent Of A Woman” dance. That dance is going down as one of my all time favorites! Though note how Antonio Sabato Jr. has fallen from last weeks odds. The odds makers are still putting Betsey Johnson and Michael Waltrip at the very bottom too. So, what do you think? Are the odds makers right this time? I think Bethany Mota should be in the top spot. I also think Sadie Robertson should have better odds. They should atleast have her in 4th position? Let’s see what Heidi and Courtney think. Be sure to let us know what you think too.
Janel Parrish 2/1
Bethany Mota 9/4
Alfonso Ribeiro 4/1
Lea Thompson 7/1
Sadie Robertson 10/1
Tommy Chong 12/1
Jonathan Bennett 14/1
Antonio Sabato Jr. 33/1
Betsey Johnson 66/1
Michael Waltrip 200/1
Last week’s Odds:
Alfonso Ribeiro 5/2
Lea Thompson 11/4
Janel Parrish 3/1
Bethany Mota 5/1
Sadie Robertson 7/1
Antonio Sabato Jr. 20/1
Jonathan Bennett 20/1
Randy Couture 33/1
Tommy Chong 50/1
Betsey Johnson 100/1
Michael Waltrip 200/1
Courtney: One perfect score does not a champion make, oddsmakers – I know you’re just totally sold on Janel now, but I still think Alfonso is *almost* a sure thing (provided that TPTB resist the urge to do too much tinkering, which I can’t guarantee). I’d put money on it that he’s back at the top of the odds next week, because I have a feeling he’s going to SLAY this jazz. And I think Sadie’s got more staying power than Lea at this point. As for the tail end of the of odds – ehhh, I think Mike has better odds than both Betsey & Antonio, simply because he’s charming. I think Jonathan is in the right place – I’m becoming a bit dubious about how many votes he’s getting.
Heidi: I think the top 6 is right, just in the totally wrong order. 🙂 These odds makers blow with the wind (aka scores) with no concept of the votes – or in the history of this show. I think this season still belongs to Alfonso, and I would wager that Bethany fares better than Janel – although I don’t know if she’ll be in second place. I would bet, right now, that Lea takes 6th place, Janel 5th, Tommy 4th, Sadie and Bethany will be 2nd and 3rd – just not sure in which order – and Alfonso in the top spot. BUT, I may change my mind depending on what they do to Alfonso this week. The man is easily the best dancer on the show, but sometimes, they try to keep the best dancers down to suit some agenda. Last season it was Charlie that was dogged so that Meryl could succeed. What I can’t see is why they need for Janel or Bethany to succeed over Alfonso – what is the motivation there?? Is it all about the kids?? Could be. And why the f@*k can’t they just score them appropriately?? I watched Janel’s dance again and it’s was lots of flash, but really not all that much substance. Why are they giving out a 40 to ANYONE in week 3, including Bethany (although they had little choice after giving Janel one), while giving the best dancer (Alfonso) and 8 point disadvantage?? So, one of two things will happen: they will either continue to pan Alfonso (at which point I change my thoughts on the final 4 rankings) or we will see a big reversal for DRAMA – that is, Bethany and Janel take a tumble, while Sadie and Alfonso rise to the top.
I still think it’s Alfonso’s to lose. Seems to me these oddsmakers go strictly by the scores and nothing else.
Well if the show is going out of it’s way to make this show all about the kids.. Then maybe the show no longer needs us Old Faithful’s tuning in any longer.
I agree they got the top 6 right, just the wrong order, I can almost know for a sure thing that in no way Janel will win, plus Sadie is too low compared to the other 5, top 3 I can see as Alfonso, Sadie, and Bethany. I also, have a feeling that Lea will be the shocking elimination this season, she has way too many of the signs IMO, but I do wish it would be Janel. Love Lea!
Plus, It doesn’t hurt that the Fresh Prince of Belair is airing nightly now on our Comcast network. Those that may have forgotten how awesome Carlton was will now have a new and fresh outlook on Alfonso.
I also agree with the top 6 but wrong order I think Bethany will finish better than Janel because of fan support I know people say that Cody had a lot of fans last season although I think Bethany’s fans are loyal to her and are probably voting. I also believe people tend to vote for the pro no matter who their partner is and Bethany has the advantage of having Derek as her partner who is probably the biggest fan fave. Derek also tends to get stronger as the season goes on. As for third place I am debating between Sadie and Alfonso will probably come down to fan support although as I said before people tend to vote for the pro and Mark I think is more popular than Witney. Although Lea may be a surprise as well but she has the disadvantage of having a new pro. As for the bottom it is hard to say anything can happen although Cheryl and Peta have the most popularity.
Do you think tptb have an agenda re what pro wins? Would there be a desire on their part to have Witney win before Val? I can’t see them pimping another Chmerkovskiy in a season after one just won but it is possible. Also of the pros who came around the same time he is the only one who hasn’t won. I just think that they are really pimping the scores of Val and Janel for whatever reason and that they are going to win this year. I hope not as I would love to see Alfonso win with Witney. Unfortunately, after last season I think the producers showed their hand in this like never before and it does not bode well imo for fair results.
I’m sorry but Janel doesn’t do well with ballroom dances she’s okay at best. I think after the Rumba she’ll probably do Contemporary because they are trying to keep her from doing ballroom as long as they can. I know Rumba is ballroom, however, I mean medium to fast pace ballroom. jmo.
Remembering what Janel said “I started dancing when I was 6 and was in and out of dance classes my whole life, but never anything w/partnering n never any ballroom. Eventually, I think my instincts will be correct w/certain dances.”
I strongly believe that a male celeb will win. Although it’s hard to predict, because last season a female won but it was all about the male winning (maks). Last season charlie white was so screwed by tptb. After watching last season, I was hoping this season would go smoother. I agree with PH, at some point they will make alfonso and sadie stand out.
Ps. #6 Lydia, rumba is a latin dance. Ballroom dances are the foxtrot, the quickstep, the tango, the watz andvthe vieniesse waltz. Sometimes they include argentine tango on ballroom sometimes on latin. But rumba is definitely latin, with cha cha cha, samba and jive.
#8 Lena, thank you for the correction. 🙂
#Judy & #Lynda – the way I see it – they are PIMPING Val & Janel from day 1 to win !… I think we had enough last season and this feels like re-run… 🙁 another showmance ?? come on ….
They are trying to keep her in the show for a long as they can they are giving the same dance both to her & to Bethany all along – which I find odd and strange…
One thing about Meryl she was killing it on the dance floor, and Janel isn’t and why she got 10’s I don’t know, but Sadie and Bethany dance better than her. Janel’s fan base isn’t that loyal because they certainly didn’t take Brandt all the way. I also think Bethany, Sadie & Janel are splitting votes. I think Janel will be leaving before the Bethany & Sadie and maybe even before Lea. jmo.
To be fair, Mona is way more important to the PLL fanbase than Noel Khan.
#Jessica, looking at her twitter following she don’t have as many as those teenage girls she’s competing against. They have over a million and Bethany has 2 million and they are pretty loyal. I don’t think Janel is going to the finals, and her dancing isn’t all that to have so much of a dancing background. It’s just that her & Val had been flexing on Instagram & twitter and I was expecting a lot from her, because of all the big talk her & Val were doing, and I’m kind of shocked that’s she really isn’t all that. jmo.
Oh, I’m not arguing that. I’m just saying that in terms of Brant vs. Janel, I don’t think he’s as important to the PLL base as she is.
And, also, in the interest of argument, Twitter followers don’t always indicate who’s pulling in votes. Like, that girl last season on the Voice — came off YouTube, millions of followers, placed 3rd. And, there was Frankie on Big Brother this summer. Sure, he was polarizing, but he also has an insane number of followers AND his sister is a pop star (Ariana Grande) who has tens of millions of followers…and he not only was one of the last voted into Team America, he didn’t even place in the Top 3 vote getters for America’s Favorite Player. And, this year saw over 10 million votes, the highest in BB history.
Again, not saying either of those girls aren’t gong to beat Janel, I just like offering a counterpoint haha. 🙂
#Jessica I agree, and it has a lot to do with demographics which favors Alphonso and the older crowd, but if you have a lot of teenagers watching the show they tend to go with girls they identify with such as Bethany & Sadie because they’re teenagers, and Janel will be 26 this month. It’s just that Val came out the gate talking about you better put your money on his team, and you don’t know who I got. He acted like he had the season in the bag, and had already sized up his competition. Then come to find these girls can dance and even the older celebs can throw down. I mean he counted his chickens before they were even hatched. Then she comes out to dance and she’s only okay. jmo.
I get that, and I agree with it, to a point. My money is actually on Sadie over both Beth and Janel. Duck Dynasty pulls good numbers and s everywhere in Wal-Mart…and if you want to talk loyal voting block, talk about southerners. There was a time when you couldn’t win American Idol without coming from the South.
#Jessica I heard that about southerners that they are hardcore voters, and I’m not mad at that either. I’m rooting for Bethany, Alphonso & Sadie to win. I love that they aren’t peaking too early in the season, however, Bethany did get all 10’s but the girl is good!!! I’m biased. jmo 😀
Does anybody noticing that Val and Janel are the only couples that actively promoting themselves on different media? Weren’t they on MyFox, Access Hollywood, Good day, ET, etc. Janel even blog for People magazine. They are very active on insta and twitter asking fans to vote for them. These two are really desperate to win. If tptb pimping them to the extreme like last season then I think they will win. I hope I’m wrong. Val does exactly what Maks did last season. Look at their dances, 3 weeks in a row he has using the troupe, making it looks like a production as a way to distract people from seeing their dance. Ugghh…
Interesting posts Lydia and Jessica! I have never seen Val so invested in a season before. He seems so sure that they will win. I still can’t believe that he will be set up to win like his brother was but tptb are definitely giving them every golden opportunity possible imo. From the dances, to the judges scores and comments – they haven’t had anything to really stretch Janel. Even the music problem worked out for her because she looks and dances like the character Anita. I guess we will see after this week. Her rumba will get great scores no doubt and if she continues to get dances that suit her she will remain for a while. But a lot of Val’s fans seem indifferent to ger so who knows how they are voting and if they are.
I’d be shocked if the finals weren’t Alfonso, Sadie, Bethany, and either Tommy or Lea. Artem is new but Lea is famous and is similar to the show’s main audience – a fifty-something woman.
I know it’s just a coincidence but we have never seen five consecutive female celebs win before, so that may be a good omen for Alfonso lol. The record is four men in a row (seasons 2-5) and obviously four women have just won.
The difference is, Jessica, that the show is watched by millions of people who might not coincide with a celebs millions of followers. The Frankie example is not really relative to DWTS because he was shown to be a complete asshole. But what you’re not taking into account is how well liked the *other* people were. Frankie could be hugely popular, but if the people who typically watch (and vote) the show like the others better? There’s no contest.
By the same token, having millions of twitter followers doesn’t mean you’re getting the votes on DWTS…but it doesn’t mean you’re NOT, either. There’s no way to know. I will wager that Janel doesn’t go past 4th place. I think she gets fifth place. Bethany, Lea and Sadie are blowing her out of the water in the twitter votes – now, TPTB may not actually count the votes the way we are (because their agenda tops everything), but it’s not hard to track twitter hashtags and Janel is WAY behind. I have to think that if people are so willing to waste time twitter voting, they may spend the time voting for a couple to stay as well. I could be wrong.
I agree with that final four Al. Of course, there does appear to be a Janel push by TPTB, but it’s not a strong one…which tells me she might not be getting the votes.
#Thiana, he’s desperate but he’s not working with same caliber of celebrity as Maks. Meryl won the Olympics and she could dance her behind off, and Janel can’t huge difference in my opinion.
I wish James Maslow’s fans would’ve spent their time voting at abc.com instead of twitter last season…sure he won the encore freestyle, but their votes were “misplaced” IMHO. I hope Janel’s fans do the same. I’d prefer to see a final with Alfonso, Sadie, Bethany (only really for Derek) and …..Jonathan & Allison 🙂
Vajanel is busy shooting sunset fauxmance photos. Does Val really think this will work? I had a feeling he had given up on it for a little bit. I just don’t find any of their dances interesting. I liked Danica better last season. I’m having trouble deciding if Vajanel and their fans are more annoying than Maksyl. I hope it starts getting better for Alfonso. I’m not prepared for him getting Ralphed or Charlied.
Janel’s sunset pics are pretty obviously showmancy. I think she is promoting the showmance angle as much if not more than Val or DWTS’s story line. Too bad because it takes away from her as a dancer and makes it very forced and fake. Even if I were a fan of hers, this stuff would put me off.
Kate(1). I just saw one of the sunset photos. These C-bros really would stop at nothing to get the MBT. And I don’t know about you but I am little tired of seeing Val shirtless(like I did with Maks who drops his pants off and goes shirtlessin almost every photo.
I thought that hat dance whatever was really tacky.
Bethany is as boring as dry toast. Maybe if the show decided to focus the packages on her instead of Derek’s dreams, people would be able to get to know her more. Her fans on youtube are angry that she hasn’t posted a video in weeks and feel as if they are ignored, and are extremely vocal about it on youtube and instagram. That won’t end well. Sadie consistently gets more youtube hits and likes on facebook, and is much more likable and sweet, has the demo of super-Christians that the show seems to be made up of. She’s shining much more than Bethany. I doubt Bethany will get past 5th place with so many people with more talent and more personality, even with “king Derek” by her side.
Glad I don’t place any bets based on their predictions. I would be very surprised if Alfonso and Sadie aren’t top two. As for the other two finalists I still go back and forth between a combination of Lea, Janel, Bethany, and Tommy. I REALLY hope Janel is a surprise elimination before that though.
@Kate(1) – I thought they had given up the showmance ploys as well. I think they pulled back after the hate they got from kiss-gate during episode 1 but now that they think everyone loves them they are pushing their chemistry again. Val said he was going to do as much before the season started, even before he knew who is partner was so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.
Janel does seem to push it more, she seems to think this is one big acting job. Problem is that won’t really work on a “reality” competition show where the audience is voting for you. Eventually the audience sees through it all.
@Heidi – Do you mean the switch-up hashtags? That surprises me in a way only because her fan base is social media minded and the PLL fans are on top of anything twitter related. I just wonder if the PLL fan base has a full concept of the show and the voting and how important it is to vote each week. I also wonder if they are JANEL fans or just Mona fans.
I really don’t think Janel is going to win. Either she or Lea will likely be a “surprise” elimination – and I’m really hoping it’s Janel. For all the hype there’s been about her, and all the judges’ raves, she has yet to impress me. Plus, Val’s choreography so far this season feels more “Maks-like” this season than it has in some of the past seasons. Maybe he’s thinking, “If it worked for big bro…”
In my ideal world, I would put swap Jonathan with Janel and shuffle up the top six (probably ending with Alfonso on top), and then swap Antonio and Michael – and then we’d be good.
With over 50 per cent of all Twitter followers I would love thoughts on Sadie and Beth crossover. If one is eliminated can one assume the other will garner the most voters
I don’t think Janel is going to win either. And quite frankly, the absolute worst thing that DWTS could do is to let that happen.
Blah blah blah “king Derek” blah blah…thanks for playing. But when you’re playing, stick with ONE name, Nick.
Jealous much, Jah Nick??
Maksyl was WAY more annoying, Kate1 – if only because it was the total waste of someone who could have had GREAT routines with another partner. Yet their fans think it was actually worthy of an Emmy. Uh, pretty sure that the Emmys are beyond faux kisses.
Yeah, DLT – she’s WAY behind. Or was, last time I checked. She’s about tied with Betsey, but she’s a whole order of magnitude behind Lea, Bethany and Sadie. I was surprised as well – and I’m not sure it means anything, because there is all kinds of agenda voting going on. But it is thought-provoking for sure.
I don’t think so, Stoli. When their favorite is eliminated, I believe MOST people just stop voting. I will vote for Sadie, if Bethany is eliminated cuz I love that girl. 🙂 I might throw some Alfonso’s way as well.
I don’t see Vajanel winning either. I’m still upset about last season. I’m hoping for a Bethany, Sadie, Alfonso and Tommy final four. 🙂
Heidi – I don’t think that means she’s going home next week or anything but it is still thought provoking as you said. As I recall from last season Cody’s fans didn’t vote a lot during the switch up week and we saw what happened there. Not saying she’s on the same exact path as Cody as her situation is different but again, something to keep an eye on. As you said there is a lot of agenda that goes into the switch-up and there isn’t a lot of call to action as no one gets eliminated.
As it is I’m confused as to when there won’t be an elimination. Technically, there should be an elimination the night of the switch-up dances as those results will be based on tomorrow’s results and votes and NO elimination the week AFTER the switch-up. Does that make sense to anyone other than me? Hahaha.
Last season there was no elimination on switch-up night. Instead they combined the votes/scores from the week before and switch-up week to send someone home the week after switch-up (it was Cody).
Makes sense to me, DLT.
If Bethany doesn’t make the finals, I’ll be voting for Alfonso. Just WON’T vote for Sadie. My predictions are Lea, Alfonso, Sadie and Bethany for final 4. I just DON’T get why people are saying they aren’t connecting to Bethany? I think this week’s dance will change that 😉
#Kelly, I think Derek is eclipsing Beth for a lot of people. She sort of fades into him. Like, last week we know Back to the Future was important to Lea and that West Side Story connected to Janel because of her Broadway background, but Singing in the Rain seemed to be all about Derek. Even the judges’ comments and the clip they played were more about Derek than her. But, I really think this week will fix all of that.
#Kelly, One thing about Bethany’s fan base they’re showing up for her because she post a picture on Instagram and 30 min laters there’s 400K likes. Her fans love her so I don’t think you have to worry about her being in the finals.
I love sadie and alfonso. I hope they are final two..omg sadie never danced and look at her go. Shes a natural and so cute. Who doesnt love alfonso? Imho its between those two. And sadie keeps getting better. I would love to see Mark win this yr. Im just amazed how good Sadie is. Who will go next. Mike,antonio and Tommy and Jonathan should go home,its between alfonso,sadie and idk who else. They have more personality than all the others. Its just the truth.
It would be interesting to see Mark OR Whitney win this year just to see the heads explode. Someone getting his third MBT or a 2nd time pro getting her first – both should go over REAL well in the C-bro land. 😀
It is still Alfonso’s to lose. The Twitter vote makes me wonder how much vote LEA is getting
Oh Just like to add Lea’s high switch up vote may be more
Derek driven
Not any Derek fans that I saw, Ananya. I got a ton of questions when I switched to Lea from Sadie on Saturday.
Yea I asked about it too, but Derek did say in an interview he would want Lea or Janel. It’s just weird janel beating Lea so easily in the encore but then not getting even half as much vote in the switch up