PureDWTS Season 19, Week 5 – Partner Switch Predictions!
So there’s a few hours left to tweet your votes for the partner switch in week 5, but we thought we’d go ahead and try to predict who’s gonna end up with who based on the tweet counts from Topsy. Last season, we tried using Keyhole (a much more comprehensive method of measuring the frequency of tweets), but since TPTB basically gave everyone the middle finger and did whatever they wanted with the results of the partner switch voting, we didn’t really want to spend the money to try and do that again. So Topsy will have to do for now 🙂 And while it would be great to be able to measure the switch voting being tweeted from the ABC website, there’s no really good way to do it – so for the sake of simplicity, we’re just going to assume that the voting from the ABC website is probably mirroring whatever the people manually tweeting are doing.
A quick explanation as to how the votes are tallied: they start with the highest vote-getting combination of any of the possible combinations, and begin pairing off down the list of vote totals until everyone has a partner (that isn’t their original partner, mind you). So using this methodology, even if Janel’s highest vote-getting combo is with Mark, she may not actually end up with him if he has a higher vote total with another contestant. Likewise, even if Betsey doesn’t have the highest vote-total with Artem, she may get him because his other high vote-getting combos have already been taken. Make sense? We also tried to take into account any nicknames that the pros and/or celebs have, as both might count (i.e. Val and Valentin, Beth and Bethany, etc.).
Some random observations that we made when looking at the totals: like last year, a helluva lot more people seem to care about who the male pros end up with, than the female pros. It’s a bit sad, actually – almost every single combination that had a male pro’s name in it had totals in the thousands, while only a handful of the combinations with female pros’ names in them even broke into the thousands. I’m guessing the Ballas/Hough vs. Chmerkovskiy Entourage rivalry is fueling that one, and Rob Wade & Co. are laughing all the way to the bank. Also interesting: if the partner switch voting has any sort of correlation with the actual voting done to keep couples in the competition, than Lea may have a lot more people voting for her than we originally assumed – likewise, assuming the same correlation, Janel may not have as many people voting for her as we may have originally assumed. Food for thought.
Now keep in mind, someone IS getting voted off at the end of the show tonight – so that has the potential to shake things up a bit with the pairings (particularly with the male celeb/female pro combos). So the list below is who would end up with who if nobody was sent home, and we used the current vote totals in Topsy (things could change before the voting ends – just ask the spammers). Below that, I’ll list some possible combinations based on certain couples getting sent home. So let’s get to it…
If the voting ended right now and nobody was sent home, these would be the pairings for next week (see handy-dandy charts for graphical representation):
Bethany & Mark (over 103K votes)
Lea & Derek (over 100K votes)
Sadie & Val (over 75K votes)
Betsey & Artem (over 17K votes)
Janel & Tony (394 votes)
Alfonso & Cheryl (over 14k votes)
Jonathan & Peta (over 2k votes)
Tommy & Witney (over 1k votes)
Michael & Allison (by POE, since Emma cannot get Michael)
Antonio & Emma (by POE, since Emma cannot get Michael)
Now, as we mentioned above – somebody IS going home tonight, so some of these partnerships have the potential to change. Based on what we’ve seen in weeks 1-3, I would say that the only celebs with a truly legitimate chance of getting sent home are the ones that have been in jeopardy/part of the last two standing – Antonio, Michael, Jonathan, & Betsey (I didn’t count Sadie because that seemed like a ruse to me – not in legit jeopardy, but just a scare tactic). So here’s how things shake out if any of the names above get sent home:
If Antonio gets eliminated: Alfonso gets Emma; all other pairings (besides the ones including Antonio & Cheryl) remain the same
If Mike gets eliminated: Antonio gets Allison; all other pairings (besides the ones including Mike & Emma) remain the same
If Jonathan gets eliminated: Mike gets Peta; all other pairings (besides the ones including Jonathan & Allison) remain the same
If Betsey gets eliminated: Janel gets Artem; all other pairings (besides the ones including Betsey & Tony) remain the same
Heidi here, with a slightly different take – and on the men only, because I only have so many hours in a day and I knew the women wouldn’t be getting the votes, making them much more likely to change
I took each celeb, made a section for that celeb with that pro, and did a search on the actual hashtag (#DWTSLeaDerek), the same couple with spaces (#DWTS Lea Derek) AND the tweet that comes from the site if you use it to vote (Lea and Derek #DWTS). As Courtney mentioned, this last one is problematic, but after messing around with it a bit, I think this is as close as you’re going to get. As Courtney also noted, TPTB didn’t seem to take the votes into consideration last year – while they said you could vote on the website or on twitter (with or without spaces) few of their selections matched the reality of what we were seeing. That got me to thinking – was it that Meryl had to travel and Derek couldn’t?? Or have they found a way to cut out the obvious SPAM?? I think option 1 is more likely – I don’t think they care about Spam at all. Maybe we will see tonight.
Speaking of Spam, yesterday when I looked at the numbers, Sadie was more than 100,000 total votes behind Bethany. Now she’s only a few thousand behind Bethany. And I’ve seen some serious spammers going to town and I’ve got one thing to say to you people: GO OUTSIDE!! It’s nice. It’s fall! LIVE! Sad and pathetic and made little difference in the end, according to my chart. In case you’re wondering, in that same period of time, the total votes for Betsey doubled and Janel is still getting no love. I have NO idea what the goal was here, but it appears that some fans are trying (and failing) to get Val to win with every celebrity. Um, sorry – it should be an easy win, seeing as how there are double the ways to vote for him, but no.
Anyway, I plugged the numbers into an excel spreadsheet and let it do all the math. When you know how excel works, none of this takes that much time. Basically, I added all the votes for a female celeb and started with the highest – Lea. What do you get?
Lea – Derek
Bethany – Mark
Sadie – Val
Betsey – Artem
Janel – Tony
No love for Janel. Here’s my spreadsheet for the TOTALS:
You will note that, despite doing it very differently, Courtney and I got the exact same results. This is telling. If you only count “Valentin” as Val’s name, you get this:
Which is:
Lea – Derek
Bethany – Mark
Sadie – TONY
Betsey – Val
Artem – Janel
Don’t panic. They aren’t likely to do it this way, but you will note that by using only Valentin, it does change the result to third being Sadie – Tony. If they use only the website??
Again, don’t panic – I don’t think they’ll do it this way, but it comes out to this:
Sadie – Tony
Lea – Derek
Bethany – Mark
Betsey – Val
Artem – Janel
And finally, exploring all possibilities…what if they use the website and only tweets with the spaces between the names, like on the show??
It results in, as you can see:
Lea – Derek
Sadie – Val
Bethany – Mark
Betsey – Artem
Janel – Tony
What’s the moral of this story?? Even if they’ve found a way to get rid of Spam, Derek should end up with Lea and Bethany with Mark. The rest are flexible, but those two don’t appear to be. And I would bet that we see Sadie with Val. If those first two combinations don’t become reality?? Cry foul even more than last season.
Derek and Lea could be fun. I am kinda hoping for a Betsey and Val pairing but after reading this, probably not gonna happen.
Gawd, I’m loving this post. WELL DONE GIRLS!!
Very informative and insightful post, ladies! I’m hoping that Antonio gets sent home tonight so that Alfonso can get Emma. Very pleased that Janel isn’t doing as well as some would like to believe. I am rather surprised that Lea is coming in first for twitter votes, though — I didn’t think she was that popular.
Good job ladies!! This kind of stuff makes my head spin! Lol…I think Derek would do well with anyone..he proved it last season when paired with NeNe!
It’s always fascinating when you ladies break everything down. Thanks so much!
I’m pretty happy with how the female celebs are shaking out, other than being sorry for Sadie, since in the Team Badie videos, she said she’s really intimidated by Val.
As far as how the male celebs are going, I was hoping that Emma would get either Jonathan or Alfonso – so I’m kind of hoping that Antonio goes home tonight (and he’s the celeb I’d most like to see leave anyhow – either he or Janel).
Sidenote, Thanks for this post mods!!! I am terrible with numbers but you guys seem like experts 🙂
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Thanks for the info ladies!
Poor Sadie. Watching her talk about Val in the Badie show video makes me a little worried for her if/when she gets Val.
So Betsey gets Val…thinking they may be giving America the middle finger again.
IDK how you guys are able to come up with this stuff. Reading it gave me a headache LOL. great job with all that you do here..
I’m confused. With the elimination tonight, the couples are now uneven. How can a switch occur next week with an odd number of couples?
BTW–what was the pairing that America wanted but didn’t get? I honestly can’t remember.
In any case, I’m not exactly surprised to see Cheryl-Alfonso and Peta-Jonathan (especially since last season we got Cheryl-James and Peta-Charlie).
@Sam #12 – if you’re referring to the partner switch-ups last season, I am certain it was Derek/Meryl. If I remember correctly, Derek/Meryl easily got the most votes, but then it was said that they couldn’t be paired together for two very different, and very dumb, reasons. Whatevs 😛 I’m interested to see what goes on this season.
Last night was not Tommy’s best dance, but I love him and I am so glad he stayed. I have a question for the viewers on this blog. Last night I was dvr-ing the show and watched the show, but I was behing by about 10 minutes. Did the show go past 10:01????? I completely missed the elimination of Betsey and Tony. My youngest kept getting out of bed and I thought maybe the show had ended and they would have a results show tonight. Please tell me I am not crazy and that the show went past 10:01 and it is my dvr’s fault. Love your blog, btw. Going to check in with you next week!
[…] the partner switch is next week. Wondering who got who? Go check out Heidi & I’s prediction post. Sort-of (but not really) spoiler: nobody’s getting sent home next week, and the person […]
Jordan (#11) – It should still work out fine, I believe. You’ll just take away Betsey and Tony as switch-up options. I copied/pasted some of Heidi’s examples so I could see what some options would look like.
Lea – Derek
Bethany – Mark
Sadie – Val
Betsey – Artem
Janel – Tony
(Janel would now be with Artem)
Lea – Derek
Bethany – Mark
Sadie – TONY
Betsey – Val
Artem – Janel
(Sadie would now be with Val)
Lea – Derek
Sadie – Val
Bethany – Mark
Betsey – Artem
Janel – Tony
(Janel would now be with Artem)
Seems like the most likely to happen (if TPTB don’t fiddle around with things):
Lea – Derek
Bethany – Mark
Sadie – Val
Janel – Artem
Does this make sense to others besides me? I, for one, would be very happy with these pairings!
I really wanted to see Bethany & Mark – I think they’ll look good together, and it should be a nice transition. I would LOVE to see what Derek can do with Lea because I think the two of them can KILL it. I’d also like to see Janel with Artem because he’s my least favorite, haha.
Jonathan & Peta would be fun too. Actually I think all of the “predicted” switch ups are how I’d want them to be.
I think Artem has been Lea’s problem up until last night, Fig. Her posture just hasn’t been good – and if I can see it you know there’s a problem. 🙂 I’ll be very curious to see if Derek can correct that (assuming that he gets her).
I really want Lea and Derek to do an A. tango.
@Ananya – I really want Derek to do the A. Tango with Beth. It’ll be fabulous. I can see Lea and Derek doing a quickstep or something. Wonder what Beth is gonna have with Mark.
Love to see Lea and Derek do the tango. I think he can make her stand out and take advantage of her strengths. Think it will be a great pairing that will help Lea and Artem in the long run.
Love to see Mark and Bethany do the cha cha. While sometimes Mark can be cheesy he can get Bethany to loosen up and have fun. Not that Derek can’t but that is what ?Mark is known for…the school of facial expressions lol.
I wonder if they will give whoever Peta gets the rumba again lol.
I hope this is the last season that we will have to endure the partner switch up. I like my favorites just as they are. To me, it just puts a wrench in my television experience.
Not a fan of the switch up at all. I only want to see Alfonso/Whitney, Sadie/Mark, Tommy/Peta, and everyone else with there original partners dancing together. I wonder why they brought it back no one liked it last season, fans, pros and celebs. It wasn’t that exciting, thrilling, or anything.
If It’s am reading the numbers correctly both Val and Mark had more than Derek. Also Derek was seed at DFW airport today.
Had more than Derek for what, Stoli? Derek had the highest total for Lea. And being seen at an airport doesn’t mean he’s got a specific person as a partner.
Actually, Stoli, you ARE reading it wrong. In Courtney’s version the Mark/Bethany combo had most votes, Derek was second and he was with Lea. Val was in third with Sadie
In my version, I counted by the total votes a celeb got. Lea was the highest and her highest pro partner was Derek. Bethany was second and her highest pro partner was with Mark. Sadie was third and her pro partner was with Val, if they counted all the vote combinations. Even if you only go by the highest vote getting combo, Derek should still be with Lea, Bethany with Mark and Sadie with Val. Every single way I calculated it, it was Derek/Lea and Bethany/Mark.
Courtney and I looked at it two different ways and got the same results. If Derek is with Sadie, TPTB once again asked everyone to vote and then disregarded it completely. Even DWTSGossip reported that she has Mark/Bethany and Derek/Lea as clear front runners on Sunday. That’s three different people tallying the results. They will not be getting votes from me next season.
When will you guys know about the switch up partnerships?
I must say I am surprised that most people voted to pair Sadie up with Val. Since many of the Bethany/Derek supporters here (as well as on other sites) seem to like Sadie a lot as well, and with the whole Ballas/Hough vs. La Familia thing, I thought it was a no-brainer that Derek and Mark would end up swapping partners. Apparently, I assumed wrong.
Val also seems very different in personality to Sadie…Can anyone share ideas on why Val was the most popular pick for Sadie? And why even Sadie/Tony got more votes than Sadie/Derek?
Sorry for any confusion, I will try to clarify, I meant total votes cast for the male pros, independent of celeb., not for a specific combo.
On the Airport thing
I was fishing for expert comments because DFW is a major hub and close to Sadie’s home. I remember last season vote and could not travel, and I was hoping there was a logical explanation.
I wanted sadie with Derek. I cant believe the paring of lea and Derek. Boo.
Just seen a picture of Derek spotted at LAX departures. Pretty sure Lea lives in LA and with Sadie going home for the week, it seems to indicate that Derek has Sadie, unless their’s an ulterior reason (work commitments etc). But from the evidence it looks like TPTB have got involved again! Sadie and her family must really not want Val with them lol.
#32 I saw that too. He was seen at the Dallas airport. Don’t know if he went anywhere else after that though. Lea’s show I believe will begin filming this week and it is filmed in LA. Very interesting!
Sorry for the double post, but a quick question. Does anyone know if they plan to reveal the pairings before the show next week? Or have they decided to keep it quiet until the live broadcast and forced the celebs and pros into a “twitter/instagram silence” so to speak?
They are announcing the switch up pairings on GMA tomorrow:
https://www.puredwts.com/2014/10/08/good-morning-america-to-announce-dwts-switch-up-partners-on-thursday/
Cali, I don’t think it was “most people” – not even close. There were a couple big time spammers on Val for an long time, and they really kicked it into gear over the weekend. They “claimed” they were protecting Sadie from Tony – well, if you’re so worried about Sadie, give her to DEREK. The one that she hasn’t said she’s intimidated by. Then Tony/Maks fans were spamming for Tony/Sadie. Derek fans, OTOH, were voting Derek/Sadie – but in a pretty lackadaisical manner. We are so not worried about Derek. 🙂 Anyway, there are several people who made up multiple twitter accts just to vote and it was pretty clear at times they were using a “bot” of some kind to do the voting. Ridiculous and pathetic are two words to spring to mind. I mean really? It’s that important?
While I was bitching earlier about TPTB clearly not counting the actual votes yet again, I will say that it’s possible that they found a way to dump the spammers – which neither Courtney or I can eliminate from our count. It is possible that after dumping the spam that Sadie got Derek – because that’s who all the Derek fans were originally voting for. None that I know of were voting for Lea until they realized Lea was winning. I suspect that Mark fans also voted Sadie with Derek, but I honestly wasn’t paying that much attention. And I don’t know how you dump the spammers, but I expect there is a way.
Even if the total pro counts were in the order you said, the same pairings would result, Stoli. And Val fans did spam like the world was ending – the question is if those votes actually count.
#35 Ah thanks for that! Hopefully someone will stick the reveal on YT for UK inhabitants such as myself. My predictions are below, the pairings could have been a bit more interesting for me, but I still think it’ll be a good week. I’m a fan of it I think it’s a really exciting and interesting concept that shakes things up for a week. SCD UK should try it.
Janel & Artem
Lea & Val
Derek & Sadie
Bethany & Mark
Alfonso & Cheryl
Antonio & Emma
Jonathan & Peta (watch him shine with the right choreography)
Michael & Allison (very interested to see how that would go)
Whats the point in these switchups i wonder? the dancers want their own partners to win, so it’s highly doubtful they’re gonna try to make their new partners look too good during this challenge.
Derek better not do the tango with Lea/Sadie(whoever he might have), I really want him to keep that for Bethany. She hasn’t done one sexy dance so far so I’m curious.
@A: That’s an interesting point in terms of gamesmanship, although I don’t know how much that’s going through any pro’s mind. If, say, one wanted to argue that maybe that was Peta’s plan with her rumba, the post-dance reaction shots strongly suggest otherwise.
Certainly, to pick two pros, Cheryl and Witney weren’t trying to sandbag James and Drew. And I just can’t picture Derek or Mark sandbagging anyone, period.
@A- I think most of the pros don’t want to make themselves look bad for a week just to help their actual partner. If I remember correctly, last season everybody was very kind and really wanted their current partner as well as their actual partner to dance well.
In terms of Derek not doing the Tango with who he has because you want him to do it with Bethany, he can still do that dance with Bethany. The dances done is followed with the celeb, not the pro. For example, last season Derek danced Jazz with Nene, but Amy had not done that dance yet so he then danced Jazz later in the season with Amy.
This switchup could get interesting real quick if Jonathan pulls off an awesome dance. Nothing against Allison, who is immensely talented beyond belief, but it might show her why their cha cha and samaba wasn’t so successful.
Ah cool, thanks for the information.
the pro’s reputation is also on the line so i don’t think anyone would purposely do that. Maks was was the only one last season who I though didn’t give a crap.
A, the dances follow the celebs, NOT the pro. Meaning that if Derek does Tango with either Lea or Sadie, he can still do Tango with Bethany.
@PH That is good to hear! I didn’t remember how it worked last season until I read that Derek did Jazz with Nene but also did it with Amy as well. Won’t make me too bummed then if he does Tango with his switch up partner. I just hope Beth doesn’t get the Tango with Mark, lol. No offense to him, I just want her to do those with Derek!
Hi- I think it was Sadie fans that were spamming over the weekend. The Val fans I talked to really didn’t even vote tbh. We figured production would make the pairs like they wanted anyway. Along with Sadie spammers, saw A LOT of spamming for Val/Betsey. I would have loved to see that happen personally, but I’m not sure what the intention of all that spamming was about..
Hmm.. I’m kinda surprised GMA hasn’t pimped the announcement of the switch up pairings on their show tomorrow? Anyways, I’m interested to see if any of the other pairings have changed on the male celeb side. I’m thinking the only change is Sadie & Derek and Lea and Val. Wonder what the reasoning was.
just wanted to say how spot on this is! Thank you!!
[…] So my obvious question: was Derek flying to West Monroe to meet up with Sadie? This contradicted the data Heidi & I collected from Topsy, which clearly had Lea in the lead to partner with Derek. So I decided to see if the evidence was […]
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