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DWTS Season 19, Week 9: Dancing by the Numbers!

Okay, we’re finally to the point of the competition where things could get interesting. But probably not. Yet. 🙂 Why? Well, we find out once and for all if Tommy’s fanbase is all that.

I’m not going to talk much about the scoring this past week – I think I’ve made my feelings abundantly clear. Whole lotta work going on to make sure that Tommy doesn’t go to the finals – and that Janel DOES go to the finals. Could say the same for Sadie, I guess, since she clearly forgot the choreo and if we complain about mistakes being overlooked for one contestant, I guess we have to do the same for the other. Thing is, I can’t get too worked up about Sadie because she forgot – you wouldn’t have known if you were watching just her and not Emma. It wasn’t a flub as much as an ad lib, if that makes any sense. I can actually believe, in her case, that the judges didn’t see it. They clearly did see in Janel’s case – and didn’t care.

Anyway, still peeved but moving on. Really tough row to hoe this week for Tommy. I’ll be very curious to see if he makes it or not. Let’s take a look at the scores.

Week 9 Table 1

Miniscule points between the top four – huge points between first and last place. And I really can’t argue with it too much. Love Tommy and Peta very much – but he’s not the dancer that the others are and he knows it.

But what does he have to do to stay?

Week 9 Table 2

It will take a minute, here, to explain why if Tommy is killing it in votes it will be Janel who suffers. I think. 🙂 The next lowest person is Sadie, but…

Week 9 Table 3

As you can see, Sadie only needs 2,400 more votes per million votes cast to beat Bethany. I have no idea if she’s managing that or not. I think she’s getting a ton of votes, but it all depends on if Bethany’s Motavators are all voting. If they are…well, still hard to say.  But it doesn’t matter. Why? Because I would wager that both girls are beating Janel handily. There’s tiny margins once you get higher than Tommy on the leaderboard. Here’s Bethany’s chart:

Week 9 Table 4

Now, Sadie only needs 9,400 votes per million votes cast to beat Janel or Alfonso. Don’t know if she’s managing it with Alfonso, but I would bet she is beating Janel. That’s why it doesn’t matter if she’s beating Bethany at this point – she’s beating Janel (I believe) and I think that Bethany is also beating Janel, since she only needs roughly 7,010 more votes per million votes cast.

Alfonso only needs ONE more vote per million votes cast to beat Janel and do I think he’s getting that? Of course.

So, what I think that all means is that Sadie is beating Janel, Bethany is beating Janel and Alfonso is beating Janel – which means it could well come down to Janel and Tommy as the bottom two.

So, who will go home? Well, I think Tommy will because as much as I think he is raking in votes, he would have to get nearly 47k more votes per million votes cast to beat Janel. That’s a lot of votes.

Before anyone asks, yes it has been done before. Kurt Warner got about that many (49k?) to send Audrina Patridge (who was at or near the top of the leaderboard) home in week 6 of Season 11.  There have been a few instances of contestants overcoming big numbers of votes to stick around.  As I said at the time, it was not just that they were getting lots of votes, but that the person eliminated was getting few. Audrina (as Courtney and I predicted a couple week before she was eliminated) was one of those and for a long while, I believed Janel was one of those. Is she still? Well, usually this level of pimpage doesn’t work. But sometimes a gullible audience just now turning into the season buys it. But it’s always possible that they like the other contestants better. I will say that this is the first season in a while that I wasn’t SURE who would win. But I am pretty sure it will be neither Tommy nor Janel. Beyond that, the finish order is a toss up. Eveything will hinge on the scores.

So, I’m pretty sure that the wacky scoring this week did the trick and Tommy will sail off into the night. He’s had a great run and he’s given me a new appreciation for Peta. If it’s anyone other than him or Janel I will be mildly surprised, but not shocked. Three young girls with correspondingly young fanbases and you just never know what those kids are doing. 🙂


November 13, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Cast of Dancing With The Stars Season 19 Visits Children’s Hospital In Los Angeles

This morning, some of the cast of Dancing With The Stars Season 19 visited the Children’s Hospital in Los Angeles, California. Aren’t these instagram pics adorable?!! #Sweet #AwwwMoment Be watching Children’s LA Facebook, they may post more pictures.

I Written By

"Dance is the hidden language of the soul" ~ Martha Graham. That's what DWTS makes me think of every Monday night. To read more about me and my other interests, see Lisa Kay Photography. You can also follow me at Voguerista Twitter & Voguerista Soundcloud.

25 Things You Might Not Know About Dancing With The Stars Val Chmerkovskiy

US Weekly is featuring an article about 25 Things you might not know about Val Chmerkovskiy. Here are a few….

15. My hip-hop was The Chronic on a cassette on the way to Ohio in ’95.

16. I hate mannaya kasha.

17. I am partner and artistic director of Dance With Me dance studios.

18. I’m a man of few words and many actions.

19. If you fail to prepare you prepare to fail.

20. Work hard, sleep well, eat right.

21. I’m incredibly modest and rarely sarcastic.

22. At my first big dance competition, my luggage was lost. I danced in my grandma’s shirt and still won. She is my good luck charm.

23. Don’t leave your Nutella unattended around me.

24. I saw the first plane hit the World Trade Center from a park in Hoboken.

25. I’m grateful and thank my parents every day for the sacrifices they made that helped bring me to where I am today.

For the full list, see US Weekly. What I’d give to see him perform on his violin again on Dancing With The Stars.

I Written By

"Dance is the hidden language of the soul" ~ Martha Graham. That's what DWTS makes me think of every Monday night. To read more about me and my other interests, see Lisa Kay Photography. You can also follow me at Voguerista Twitter & Voguerista Soundcloud.

Dancing With The Stars Karina Smirnoff Wins 2014 Labs Outstanding Achievers Award

Congratulations to Karina Smirnoff!! Last night she was awarded the 2014 Outstanding Achievers With Learning Differences Award. It’s given by the Labs school in Washington DC to people with learning disabilities who have overcame them and are a success in their field. Karina was honored along side a Pulitzer Prize winning author. Thanks to Mel for the heads up on this news! Below are some instagrams. To view more, see Karina’s Instagram.

ETA: Tomorrow Karina is attending a KIIS FM Purse party. You can read more here. Let’s hope we get pictures.

“Tomorrow is going to be like a girl heaven,” she describes. “Shoes, purses, drinks, massages … I mean, if you go to heaven as a woman, that’s where you go.”

When Karina is not hosting purse parties and raffling designer handbags, the 36-year-old is strictly business on the dance floor. The DWTS Season 13 winner insists she refuses to develop any intimate relationships with her dance partners.

“Absolutely not,” she says. “If you have a chemistry with your partner during the season, there is nothing wrong with it. But don’t go into it until the season is over. You see each other seven days a week. It’s not difficult to develop feelings. But once it’s over, it’s like they cut the umbilical cord. You have no connection to your partner unless you like call and talk. So I say absolutely not. So Ryan, if you and I are on the show together, I can’t date you during the season.”

Read more..

I Written By

"Dance is the hidden language of the soul" ~ Martha Graham. That's what DWTS makes me think of every Monday night. To read more about me and my other interests, see Lisa Kay Photography. You can also follow me at Voguerista Twitter & Voguerista Soundcloud.

PureDWTS 19 Semi-Finals Numerology Predictions: “It’s This Tight”

Hi All! DonaMadrina is back with her seasonal Numerology Predictions and Analysis and she outdid herself. Read on to see what I mean. This is fascinating….and talk about a tight call this time. Be sure to let us know what you think in comments.

“It’s This Tight”
by Donamadrina
If you’ve been reading PureDWTS for a while now, you know that it’s a tradition for Vogue and I to take a look at which couples have the best chance of winning Dancing With the Stars based on astrology and numerology – and, hey, we’ve got a good record too – so far. 🙂 I’m going to start the thrust this week with a look at the numerology of the final five couples, and then both Vogue and I will look at the final four next week.

Each season seems to get tougher to predict. (Gosh, why is that?) However, even the professionals who do this all the time seem to be having a problem. If you take a look at the Las Vegas odds throughout the season, you will notice that the odds for the final 3-4 have fluctuated tremendously. Most of the odds makers have Alfonso winning, but will he? BING, the search engine, has projected Sadie and Mark as the winners based on video views and searches. Another source projects that it will be Janel and Val. So who will it be?

Well, let’s take a look at which couples may be in the final 4, though if you’ve been reading Heidi’s Dancing By the Numbers, it may seem a bit obvious. For now, let’s see if numerology confirms what Heidi sees from the math. How does numerology work? Well, that subject is beyond the scope of this blog. Let’s just say, it works. However, gotta admit that numerology is not an exact science. It takes the blending of many factors, and that’s where numerology becomes an art. Read more..

I Written By

"Dance is the hidden language of the soul" ~ Martha Graham. That's what DWTS makes me think of every Monday night. To read more about me and my other interests, see Lisa Kay Photography. You can also follow me at Voguerista Twitter & Voguerista Soundcloud.