DWTS Season 19, Week 10: Dancing by the Numbers!

Wow. The last week. The second to last numbers post until March. Yay!! I will hopefully be able to whip up a numbers post on Monday night after those scores have come in and will take into account whichever screwy way they decide to count the votes.

Anyway, their convenient ranking of the contestants the other night makes it harder to call than you might think. I’ve been of the opinion for quite some time that Janel is the low vote getter of the people left standing (hell, maybe she got less votes than Tommy, but who knows). But the scores are equally important and the question is: is she getting enough votes to prevent Sadie, Bethany and Alfonso covering the spread? That’s the big question.

Between the very young fanbase of Bethany (less likely to vote) and the broad appeal of Sadie and Alfonso, is Janel’s score enough?? Well, it will be an interesting Monday night. Maybe. What I mean by that is – when will they eliminate the fourth place person, Monday night or Tuesday? Last season, according to Wiki, they eliminated James on Monday night after all the dances. Bill Engvall was eliminated on Monday night. Aly was eliminated on TUESDAY. However, Aly’s season was the last one where there was a regular Tuesday night show.  So, it should be Monday night – but the producers of this show have a tendency to change things around to suit their purposes.

But for right now, we’re going on the assumption of a Monday night elimination, which makes these scores pretty important.

S19 Wk10 Table 1

Well, as you can see the percentages are pretty close together, which means not a lot of votes will be needed for someone to get beat.

See, this is why it’s tough. There hasn’t been a real bottom two all season. Janel and Sadie have been the last woman standing on a couple of occasions –sometimes that means something and sometimes it doesn’t.  It never means anything during the semi-final and finals nights, so that leaves Sadie and Janel each with one instance of being the last person called safe.  Betsey was in the bottom two and was eliminated two weeks later. Jonathan was last to be called safe and was eliminated two weeks later. Michael was last to be called safe and was eliminated four weeks later (thanks to goofy eliminations). Tommy was last to be called safe and was eliminated two weeks later.  Janel was last to be called safe four weeks ago and was handed bogus immunity two weeks later, and was wildly overscored the two weeks after that. Interesting.  Sadie was last to be called safe the last two weeks, but as I said, it doesn’t usually mean anything in the semi-final. That may be true for the quarter final as well, but I can’t remember and I’m too lazy to go look it up.

So, does this mean that either Sadie or Janel are going to be eliminated Monday night? Well, no, not really. We don’t really know if jeopardy means anything in a given season until that season is completely done. But, we’re pretty close right now.  Based on this knowledge, and the fact that he’s awesome, I’m going to bet that Alfonso is safe on Monday night.

That leaves us with the three ladies. Now, I think it’s fairly clear that Bethany has the largest actual following from BEFORE DWTS. And I kind of feel like Sadie’s gotten the lion’s share of the average viewer. Which kinda leaves Janel out in the cold.

Sure, I would like to see Janel eliminated, but that’s just to hack off Val. Really, if you’ve made it to the finale, there’s winning and losing. Unless you’re holding the trophy at the end, you lost – does it matter what place you got? Not really. All that just to say that I don’t really care if Janel gets fourth or third. And to also say that if Bethany isn’t holding the MBT at the end (and she won’t be), who cares ifshe gets fourth or third or second??

All that to also say that I’m not really sure who it’s going to be on Monday night. My instinct is that Alfonso and Sadie will be the last two standing. Let’s look at the voting requirements:

S19 Wk10 Table 2

Now, it could come down to Sadie and Janel or Bethany and Janel. But look at those vote requirements. I think that Sadie beats all three of them with the possible exception of Alfonso. Then Alfonso beats both Bethany and Janel. Then Bethany beats Janel. Now, that’s the very short version, but if you followed it, that means Janel is eliminated.

BUT, it’s entirely possible that Sadie only beats Janel in with the above scores. Doesn’t matter, right, because it’s likely that Alfonso beats Bethany and Janel and Bethany beats Janel, which means Janel goes home. But what if Sadie isn’t beating Janel, since that more than 10k could be a stretch??

I’m confusing myself now. Simpler version – how is Janel eliminated. If ALL of the following happen:

  • Sadie gets 11k more votes per million votes cast than Janel, AND;
  • Alfonso gets 8,300 more votes per million votes cast than Janel, AND;
  • Bethany gets 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Janel.

See, those are not huge numbers, but the number between Sadie and Janel does worry me a tiny bit. How is Sadie eliminated?? If ALL of the following happen:

  • Sadie fails to get the 11k more votes per million votes cast than Janel, AND;
  • Sadie fails to get 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Bethany, AND;
  • Sadie fails to get 2,800 more votes per million votes cast than Alfonso.

Finally, how is Bethany eliminated?? If ALL of the following happen:

  • Sadie gets 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Bethany, AND;
  • Alfonso gets 2,800 more votes per million votes cast than Bethany, AND;
  • Bethany fails to get 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Janel.

Now do you see why it’s so hard? None of those numbers are huge. In looking at all three combinations, it strikes me that, initially, it looks like eliminating Janel is the hardest thing to do. But then look at Beth and Sadie – it seems like Janel has an easier road, but when you look at Sadie’s set, it seems to me that she could beat Alfonso and Bethany with those numbers, but it’s also a bit hard. Then you look at Bethany and it doesn’t seem like it would be hard for her to beat Janel even if Sadie and Alfonso are beating her.

That is why I keep coming back to Janel. Sadie might not beat Janel, but she beats Bethany (theoretically) so she’s safe. Sadie might beat Bethany, but I think Bethany beats Janel so SHE’S safe. And that leaves Janel out in the cold.

But remember, I only have to be wrong by a TINY bit for someone else (either Bethany or Sadie) to go home.

At the end of the night, I think Janel will be eliminated. If not Janel ,then Bethany. Third choice is Sadie.

ETA: In re-reading what I wrote last night when I was exhausted from traveling, I felt I needed to make a couple things clear and add a note. First – while I think it will come down to Janel and one of the other girls, they may not SHOW that. IF Janel is safe on Monday night, expect to see her called safe first and see Bethany and Sadie standing next to each other under the red light of doom. Either Bethany or Sadie COULD be ahead of Janel in the finish, but if they are really interested in pimping Janel to the trophy, they will call her safe first. It’s a subtle form of manipulation.

As for the note? Well, I wasn’t really clear in the point that while I think Bethany had the largest fanbase coming into the show, that fanbase is typically one that is less inclined to vote and could easily be offset by the general public,  who I think are voting for Alfonso and Sadie. That is why I think that Bethany won’t do better than 3rd place. I’d be happy to be wrong. 🙂