DWTS Season 19, Week 11 – The FINALE: Dancing by the Numbers!

Okay, for those of you claiming scores don’t matter, this should be a lesson to you. Yes, this is me saying I told you so.  Including you, John. 🙂 There was a little more than 5k between Bethany and Janel and Janel had the second lowest combined score. It is VERY possible that Janel got fewer votes than Bethany and still advanced to the finale. This is why the overscoring crap actually works. Another lesson? That once again huge, young fanbases don’t necessarily vote. Although Bethany did FAR better than many younger celebs dancing on the show. Closer to Zendaya than Cody.

Now I have ten bucks that Janel is going on tour. Talk about yer motive for the pimpage. 🙂 Good thing I’m not buying tickets. I would like to see Mark sing though – dude, call me and let me know what you hook up. 🙂

Anyway, fairly sure that they were called safe in actual order, particularly since Beth was eliminated and Janel was in the real bottom two – loved the shock on Val’s face. Yes, it is that rare that he makes it farther than Derek, despite having a ringer every season except one. Totally called the bottom two, unfortunately. Wrong person went home, but that’s how it goes sometimes.

I suspect that they were also ranked in order of how they will finish by the judges.

Week 11 Table 1

Alfonso is out in front by a nice little margin. What worries me is that the judges will do some crazy ass leveling shit tomorrow, giving Janel the high score and Alfonso the low score. If that happens, I may throw shit at my TV.  YOU HAVE HELPED HER ENOUGH. You propped her all the way into the final three. Enough with that shit already. If I hear one more “Oh, you made a mistake…BUT I DON’T CARE!!!!!” I seriously will start writing “Don’t watch DWTS, it SUX” blogs. And really – having Tom reveal a real bottom two for the first time since week 2?? Yeah, another subtle form of pimpage.

For those so certain Janel will win? Seriously doubt it. That is not a freestyle you win with – it’s been (over)done and it’s competing against two brilliant freestyles from Alfonso and Sadie. But let’s say it’s a real possibility, here’s what she needs to hoist the MBT.

Week 11 Table 2

She needs 3.3k more votes per million votes cast than Sadie and 9.7k more votes per million votes cast than Alfonso.

Can she do it? Well, I doubt it. Thanks to Tom’s pronouncement she might be able to get past Sadie, but I’m doubting that too. I will agree with one of the Afterbuzz ladies (Kristyn?) who said that Sadie has IT in a big way. That mysterious “IT factor” that Stars have. She has it in spades. No matter where she ends up finishing, she can now do anything she wants to do. So no, I don’t think Janel is getting past her or Alfonso.  I said the other day that I thought Janel and Bethany were battling for third and fourth and that hasn’t changed.

So, who do I think is going to win? I have no flippin’ idea. 🙂 For a few weeks there, I was feelin’ pretty sure that Mark was getting MBT number 3, joining a pretty exclusive (Hough) club. But watching Alfonso last night makes me think that he will walk away with it. I think that Sadie’s dances might have actually worked against her tonight a bit, whereas Alfonso didn’t have that problem.  The beauty of Sadie’s “Hunter” dance is that it looked BRILLIANT the first time around, but you can’t get really better than the delight of the first time. Conversely, Alfonso got to add 30 seconds (and yes, I thought this was a detriment initially) and it felt like a fresh, new dance. I didn’t really remember it from the first time around, whereas Sadie’s I did.  It’s hard for Sadie to improve on the novelty of the first time, whereas Alfonso’s FELT like the first time, if that makes any sense.  I also feel that, while Sadie’s freestyle was absolutely delightful (loved it!), it was SO out of the box that it might not resonate with a lot of the older viewers. The much older viewers. Frankly, I can’t wait till thanksgiving so I can whip out my Wii and play Super Mario. I am different in a lot of ways. 🙂 Alfonso’s freestyle played directly into the main demographic of this show who is 65 years old and female. No, don’t tell me that you loved them and you are 65. If you spend any time at all posting here, you are NOT the typical demographic. 🙂

Anyway, Courtney will tell you that I told her WEEKS ago that I thought that Sadie was going to be top 2 with Alfonso, and possibly win it. Like, a long time ago. Now I’m thinking that Alfonso probably has it wrapped up. But what does Sadie need to win??

  • She needs for Janel to NOT get 3.3k more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • She needs 6,500 more votes per million votes cast than Alfonso.

If Bethany couldn’t get 5k to get past Janel, I don’t see Sadie covering the spread to beat Alfonso. So, here’s how I think it will turn out:

Alfonso – 1st Place

Sadie – 2nd Place

Janel – 3rd Place

Much longer shot is:

Sadie – 1st Place

Alfonso – 2nd Place

Janel – 3rd Place

But what about the fusion dance, you ask? Well, depends on how they do it. Rank it or plain old score it? Last season they did a straight 30 point score – Amy and Meryl got 30 and Candace got 27.  I suspect they will do something similar this season. I don’t think the judges will attempt to change the outcome, despite the fact that they were pretty shitty this season. So let’s say each couple gets 40 points.

Week 11 Table 3

As you can see, it narrows the margins a bit. I have to go with the same outcome. IF they cast Sadie in the Candace role (and they better not because Sadie’s a much better dancer) and shaft her by 3 points, I still give Sadie the edge over Janel.  But man, it’s close. Or it seems to be.  I guess we find out soon.  🙂  Depending on what happens, I may do a “How did so and so win” post. Maybe. I pretty much need a blogging break, so we’ll see. 🙂

Final Note: As of 12:15 eastern time, Bethany has slayed the competition in the twitter vote, much like James did last season. 50k tweets to about 15k tweets for the other three contestants (each).