DWTS Season 20 Las Vegas Odds For Week 1: Do You Agree Or Disagree?
Time for our first “Las Vegas Odds” post for Dancing With The Stars Season 20!! The odds makers have placed their bets at Sports Bovada. Take a look below to see what you think. Do you agree or disagree? Keep in mind that they haven’t included the 12th contestant Chris Souls yet.
Nastia Liukin 2/1
Noah Galloway 4/1
Riker Lynch 7/1
Michael Sam 9/1
Charlotte McKinney 10/1
Patti LaBelle 12/1
Redfoo 12/1
Suzanne Somers 12/1
Willow Shields 12/1
Rumer Willis 16/1
Robert Herjavec 20/1
My thoughts: I think they have the top three about right, but, I think I’d place Redfoo at 3rd. I also think Suzanne Somers will do better than what they show. Same with Rumer. I was shocked to see her placed so low. 😯 I think she should be somewhere in the top 5. I do agree with Robert being towards the bottom. If I were to pick who should be at the very bottom, I’d pick Charlotte and Patti before Robert. I’m on the fence about Chris Soules since we haven’t seen him dance yet, but, he has a good teacher with Witney. Looking at their odds overall makes me wonder of how tight this competition might be this season with 3/4th of this cast? I can’t wait.
Let’s see what Heidi and Courtney think and be sure let us know your thoughts in comments….
Courtney: I think the knee-jerk reaction of most oddsmakers would be Olympic gymnast + Derek = guaranteed win, but I actually don’t see them winning this season…too much of a “gimme”, and too many people of the pewee football mentality: “Let other pros have a chance to win!” I think the best they can hope for is 2nd. I think they have Charlotte wayyyy too high – not based on ability, but the fact that she is not very well-known relative to the other celebs this season (when she was first announced as a cast member, she didn’t even have her own Wikipedia page…yikes). At this point, I would probably put her at the bottom, below Robert, like Vogue. I think Patti is too high as well, and I think she’s going to reeeeallllly struggle before getting booted before the midpoint of the season. Redfoo is wayyyy too low – given his enthusiasm and some innate dancing skills, I think he could be the dark horse this season. I’d probably boost Rumer & Willow as well, as I think the fanbases of their pros are going to carry them for awhile (even if they can’t dance for beans, and I don’t think that will end up being the case with either of them). As for Chris – I’d put him slightly above Charlotte, but below Patti & Robert. I doubt he’s going to make much of a splash and will probably be one of the first voted out.
Heidi: Yeah, as usual these odds are kind of a mess. I can certainly see why they would have Nastia at number 1, but I don’t think she’s actually going to win. I think the Top 4 will be Nastia, Riker, Redfoo and Rumer – and they only have one of those in their top 4. Willow could take the place of anyone except probably Nastia – I definitely see her in the final 4. I also think Noah will be at least top 6, but I’m not all that certain he be as high as second place. This is why I don’t normally make a guess as to who will win without seeing them dance. Sometimes it’s obvious (Meryl OR Charlie) and other times it not at all. While Noah is amazing, he does still have to dance and I don’t have a clue about that just yet. I think Charlotte is going to be first out, followed by Robert then Chris. We may not like Chris, but the Bachelors generally have big followings. Everyone else is somewhere in the middle of the pack. Why the odds makers have Charlotte and Michael as high as they do is a mystery to me. And why Rumer is near the bottom is also a mystery. Weirdness.
Yeah why in the world did they put Rumer so low? Even if Rumer had the fanbase of Charlotte, for example, she still has Val as a partner and God knows how many fans HE and the rest of the Chmerkovskiy gang have. Way too many, I think. I see Rumer in the top 4 but I also see her as a “not-really-that-shocking” elimination. A-la Elizabeth Berkley.
Willow is also way too low. I’m kinda rooting for Charlotte right now but do these people seriously think she is gonna make it farther than Willow? Ehhhh…… Possibly but unlikely, in my opinion.
I think my top 4 right now would be Nastia, Rumer (or Willow), Redfoo and… wait for it…. Suzanne! I have a feeling Suzanne is gonna be great. Kinda hoping she kicks some butt! Just hope Tony gives her some good choreography. If she indeed does well and the audience that has seen for years is behind her and votes, I could see her in the finals.
First out? My initial thought is, sadly, Charlotte. I am crossing fingers and everything else that she comes out on Week 1 with a great Jive that gets the judges and the audience excited and makes them all want to see more. If she could at least make it to Week 3 and THEN be eliminated (so.. second out) that would be great! 😛
If Charlotte isn’t first out then I think it could be Patti or Robert.
Very surprised by Charlotte spot and Rumor’s those two can be switched. Also would put Redfoo and Willow higher. As Of Riker I see him in the top 4, unless he doesn’t connect to the audience, then he’s just another Cody.
Yeah, I’m also thinking Charlotte will be the first out. I initially had it at Robert but I think he’s probably got a bigger fanbase from a fellow ABC show in Shark Tank, and I guess that is fairly similar to the DWTS demographic perhaps? It’s a shame because I don’t want to see Keo going out first again, but I kinda struggled to fully enjoy their live streams in comparisons to the others so far, and I’m not sure if she’ll be the most natural (no Carl Jr’s pun intended) of the contestants.
Love a bet myself, still waiting for the odds to be released here, but I’d say the two favourites above are accurate. If Rumur Willis comes out at 16/1 in the UK then I’ll certainly have a few coins on her as that price is to high to ignore. They’ve played it well putting Noah at only 4/1. They know if he can dance he’ll be a lock in for the final so keeping his odds low pre show is a smart move.
I couldn’t call a first elimination at this point. If a market for first elimination was available at an oddsmakers, I’d have to put money on Charlotte as her price would be excellent based on the above oddsmakers having her as 5th highest ranked celebrity. But in reality I think she’ll dance well on the night which could save her. First out for me will be one of Charlotte, Robert, Chris or Patti. In any order those 4 will probably be the first couples to leave the competition barring any shock elims.
I read on another sight(can’t remember which I think it was the ABC forum) that there won’t be an elimination until the third night which guarantees they all get to dance at least 3 dances. If this is true, how do you guys think this will (affect if at all) who goes out. I can’t remember if it has been done before. I guess they’d eliminate 2 couples instead of 1.
It sounds weird, but I’m really hoping we get a lot of surprises this season. Most of the celebs. are really likable so if they can all dance I’m hoping the dark horses/underdogs can connect with the audience.
I also agree that Nastia won’t win this season. I’m thinking either 2nd or 3rd.
I am not sure about Noah’s capabilities and/or the military vote, so for the latter reason he may make top 4.
Charlotte and Patti are way too high, Rumer and Willow are too low, however, Rumer and Willow are my picks for surprise eliminations.
I’m calling it now… Redfoo is my pick for this seasons “hidden gem”. I hope to see a top 4 freestyle from this pair.
My Top 4.. In no specific order, probably Nastia, Riker, Redfoo, and either Rumer or Suzanne.
I was kinda shocked by some of those. They underestimating rumor and Suzanne big time. If I was a betting man, I would say either robert and patti out in the first two weeks respectively. If I had to guess who the final five are going to be I would say nastia, Noah, redfoo, Suzanne, and roumor.
I have to agree with everyone that I think that nastia isnt going to win but will great. I kinda feel like out of the ones I mentioned, redfoo is going to be the crowd favorite though. He definately knows how to work a crowd.
I totally se Nastia winning because If yoy remember on season
Sandy, I think you’re probably right about Willow being a surprise elimination. She may go early, too. Unfortunately, I think a lot of older viewers will be upset about her age and send a message by not voting for her no matter how well she does. And, I don’t think the younger viewers they are counting on will vote.
I also think Riker may suffer from the same fate, not from angry older viewers, but I just don’t think the younger teen viewers, if they tune in, will be that invested to vote.
I hope I’m wrong.
I totally see Nastia winning this season because If you remember on season 16 and especially season 17 there were also those too many people of the pewee football mentality: “Let other pros have a chance to win!” and guess what ? Derek won 😉 And of course not to mention she’s a gold olympic gymnast ..
I disagree that Willow will be an early elimination. If she dances as well as Sadie and has suitable choreography, I don’t see the problem. She is an actress who already has a professional career and a successful one at that. If Mark conducts himsrlf as he did last season, and why would he not, than it will be fine. Older voters have grandkids and they presumable root for them when they have something they want to do. So by extention, they will root for a young lady reaching for her dream.
Rumer & Val don’t have large fan base, and Val calling women b*tches, because they dared to make comments about Rumer posture in a pic he posted. I guess he was attempting to show off her figure, but disguise it by saying something about her fundamental being on point.
Judy I really hope I’m wrong. I’m 50 and have a daughter that just turned 15 and would not have a problem with her dancing with Mark. I’ve just read a lot of negative comments and talked to friends who thinks she’s too young. Man, they really are outraged, too. LOL
Sadie was 17, and I really think most of the votes came from older Duck Dynasty voters at least in the beginning. I could be wrong though.
I hope I am wrong for her and Riker’s sake.
Without checking with anyone, I would say that anything you read on the ABC boards is utter bullshit. If it turns out to be right, it will be a complete accident.
Dee, i hope so too! Willow may be young in age but I doubt she is immature in work ethic and her decision to take part in the show. It seems too bad to penalize a young person for reaching for their goals whatever they are. But haters will find something to hate I guess. Imo, she doesn’t seem to be over sexualized. If she was, then I would have a problem supporting her but she seems very age appropriate.
Dee, could you start calling yourself Dee2 or some such thing?? We have another long time poster named Dee and it’s going to get confusing for people.
Your logic doesn’t follow, Maria. Last season there were tons of peewee football types out there and Derek took fourth. Derek danced with Shawn Johnson and took second.
There is really no telling, but being that this is his third Olympian (counting Amy, although maybe I shouldn’t since she was a double amputee up against TWO huge Olympians), and he has 5 MBTs….well, the odds are stacked against them, no pun intended. Unfortunately, some of the mental midgets who watch this show do believe in the “everyone gets a trophy” philosophy.
What makes you think she’ll dance like Sadie, Judy?? Just because she’s young?
Princess Heidi, LOL I don’t know where I read about the couples being eliminated on the 3rd night, but I’ll keep that in mind. I usually just come to this sight first and then read the pros and celebs. facebook and instagram pages. There were A LOT of negative comments about Willow’s age on Mark’s facebook and Instagram. I really felt bad for her and him.
Thanks
Princess Heidi, Yes, Not a problem.
Thanks Dee – I think everyone will appreciate it, including both Dees. 🙂
These odds are very messy to me. I think Nastia and Noah are in good spots, but I do not think Riker will make it to the top 3. Also ranked way too high are Charlotte and Patti. Ranked too low are Rumer and Redfoo.
In my opinion:
Possible contenders: Nastia, Noah, Rumer, Redfoo, Michael Sam
Will last for a bit: Chris Soules (bachelor fans will vote him thru), Willow (Mark’s populatiry will keep her for a bit, but her fan base age worries me), Riker (i bet he leaves around the same time Jonathan did last season, fan base is young), Susanne
First few people to go: Patti, Robert, Charlotte
Strangely conservative and non-commital is how I’d describe these odds. Still, it’s refreshing not to see any 50/1 and 100/1s in the basement.
I have no skill at actual odds-making. So without the mathematics, here is how I’d divide the field at this stage:
Contenders: Nastia, Noah, Redfoo, Rumer
Dark Horses: Willow, Michael
Middle Roaders: Riker, Suzanne, Chris
Early Outs: Patti, Robert, Charlotte
Can’t wait for the premiere!
Top Five:
Derek & Nastia
Sharna & Noah
Redfoo & Emma
Robert & Kym
Rumor & Val
I really believe this is how it will shake out.
I’m predicting this will be the top six:
Redfoo & Emma
Willow & Mark
Rumer & Val
Suzanne & Tony
Natsia & Derek
Sharna & Noah
Charlotte, Chris or Robert will be the first one eliminated. Patti will last till week 4 or 5 (She has a huge fanbase that will keep her on for a few weeks).
Top-4 to me are going to be –
Noah-Sharna
Rumer-Val
Refoo-Emma
Nastia-Derek
Winner will be anyone from Noah or Rumer. Nastia and Derek will come 2nd/3rd.
And Riker or Willow are my choices of ”surprise” eliminations. I don’t think Riker has a very likable personality …didn’t enjoy their rehearsal much.
I am super interested to see Chris and Witney dance together. I don’t think Chris will be a natural dancer however he has a fabulous teacher and choreographer in Witney. Gorgeous looking couple by the way!
My rankings
Noah
Nastia
Redfoo
Suzanne
Robert
Willow
Michael
Rumer
Riker
Patti
Charlotte
Derek took fourth last season because let’s be honest bethany was not a great dance in comparaison of alfonso , sadie and janel . And he took second with shawn because as everybody knows melissa kept saying ” I have never won I have never won and shawn and kelly did ” so of course they are gonna vote for her but this season it’s different
* not a great dancer *
I still think this season’s top four is kinda hard to predict, but I’m hoping for the finalists to be (not my prediction, just the ones I’m hoping to be the finalists):
– Nastia and Derek
– Noah and Sharna
– Michael and Peta
– Robert and Kym
Nastia is almost a shoo-in I guess, I just can’t see her getting eliminated before top 4 (though it’s not impossible). Noah and Michael are my favourites who I want to see dance very well, and the last one is jmore of a wishful thinking because I love Kym so much, but Robert could always go the Bill Engvall route too if he’s as charming, hopefully.
I don’t think that there’s such a high probability that Nastia and Derek win, but I also don’t find it impossible. I mean, last season, Bethany wasn’t one of the bast dancers at all and if she had been paired with anybody else (including Val), she probably wouldn’t have gotten so far. It was sure that last season will bee between Sadie and Alfonso, but it was’t so much about their partners, it was about their personalities and dance skills. So if Nasia has both, she actually has a big chance, paired with Derek or not.
I also think that there’s no chance that Rumer will be eliminated so soon, I don’t know what this predection is based on, but her dancing seems pretty good and considering how Val and his partner were treated last season, I think that her palce in top 4 is almost certain.
I’m sure this ranking will be a bit different after we see them dance. Viewers will probably hold Nastia and Derek to a higher standard only because “Derek won so many times.” I don’t think this statement will ever end. Whatever. Redfoo will be this season’s Tommy. Riker seems really nice based on the video. Did anyone noticed how many times he said “thanks” or “thank you”? He’s also a good learner. If Allison can teach him a proper technique and choreography, he has a good chance of winning. Of course this is only based on one video so might be wrong. My top 4 in no particular order: Noah, Nastia, Riker, Willow/Rumer.
I have to add Redfoo in the mix.
I think any person partnered with Derek will go far. Last year, Bethany was NOT a natural dancer but Derek knows how to showcase his partners. I’m interested in getting to know Nastia and see what we see of her personality. Back in the day, I followed gymnastics pretty in depth and Nastia didn’t always come off looking good. I realize some of this has to do with the competitive nature of the sport and hopefully, she has grown up a lot since those competitive days. Am looking forward to seeing how her personality comes across.
I think Redfoo and Emma will do much better than these odds are giving them. For whatever reason, I think Suzanne can move, at least she could back in the day. So I’m looking forward to that. Riker and Allison, I just don’t know about. First impressions of Allison from last year, means she has things to overcome this year. Rumor is going to go farther than they have her, even if that is based solely on Val. Same with Willow. Val and Mark’s fans are good for any contestant for getting farther than they have these two listed at.
I’m looking forward to this season.
Val and his partner were treated very well last season. VERY well. Any crap was of their own making. And that has nothing to do with how they’ll place. Val has gone out early with very good dancers before. Considering that he’s mired shipper wars of his own making could be a problem.
That list makes me wonder what criteria they’re using. I can get with Nastia & Derek being highly placed, but there are a lot of them that are just screwy.
My final 4 (not having seen them really dance) are Nastia, Redfoo, Rumer, and Noah. As for the early exits, I’m thinking Charlotte first (no fan base, wicked-hard first dance), followed in no particular order by Michael (same fan base issue), Patti, Robert, and the Bachelor. I’m thinking the possible “shock eliminations” are Suzanne and Riker, ’cause I’m wondering if his fans will vote.
And with my luck, it’s most likely that NONE of this will turn out like I’m thinking! Bring on the premier! 😛
The person at ABC retracted her statement about no eliminations the first two weeks. She might have paid a visit to PDH. I’ve read that Rumer has background in aerials (not sure what that means exactly) but based on the rehearsal video, she looks like she learns quickly and to me, she looks strong. Gut feeling is both she and Nastia will be in final four.
My top four guesses in no particular order are the same as Heidi’s—Nastia, Redfoo, Rumer and Riker. I also think it doesn’t mean much until we see them dance and get a sense of who they are and how they connect with their partners. I think Noah might replace Redfoo or Rumer in that list. He is charming and if he can dance at all he will win people’s hearts.
Based on the rehearsal vid, Riker is not another Cody. He is more personable and seems teachable. In spite of reports about dancing lessons, he didnt appear to be burning the floor, but I can’t help but think he will turn it on when he’s performing.
After Derek won two MBTs, I didn’t think he would win another. I was sure with Jennifer, absolutely sure with Kellie and doubly absolutely sure with Amber. So, again, I’m with all of you who think he and Nastia won’t win. But. . .I can’t wait to see their dances.
I saw the rankings and you are right -they are weird. I watch shark tank and Robert has a good personality but he tends to sulk if things don’t go his way. Love Suzanne and I think she will surprise. First out for me are Patti, Charlotte and Chris. (Maybe Renfoo will go early). Really like Noah, and Michael, as well as Suzanne, Willow’s partner Mark, Val, Kim and Derek.
The rankings seem odd except for a few not sure how its worked out. Val and rummer definitely not that low.I think they will surely will be in top 4 my pick nastia,rummer,Noah (if he’s even a little good at dancing)he will surely be there rooting for him as well I have a feeling ppl will love him no matter what 🙂 and redfoo. Would so love to see nastia and Derek take it last time I had gut feeling that Derek won’t be able to make top 3 but this time I feel strongly that he just well may take the gold 🙂 anyhow we will c some great dancing in the end its about how likable The celebs are so its two N’s standing out for me Noah and Nastia
I don’t understand why Robert is soooo low. He has a pretty big fan base from shark tank and I think he will surprise us with his dance moves based off of some of the rehearsals. I’m not so sure Val’s fanbase is going to help rumor as much as it did Jamel. I also don’t see viewers jiving with redfoo for him to make it past the midpoint of the competition.
I’m quite excited for this season, but I’m not sure I agree exactly really with the odds placed on the bet. I’m surprised to see Rumer and Willow placed pretty low white Charlotte quite surprisingly high. Mark does have a pretty good history with partnerships with younger celebs, so with the right choreography and effort, I can definitely see Willow making it at least to the top 4 or 5.
Somehow, I don’t think Nastia and Derek will win this season, it seems too obvious or gimme gimme if they do to the audience although from clips I’ve seen, Nastia does seem like a very sweet person. I would love to see Noah get far with Sharna, I’ll love to see Sharna choreograph a freestyle as well, although I also love Allison and Peta. I agree generally that Patti and Robert, possibly Charlotte will be the first ones out, although Suzanne, Chris, Michael, and Riker are still of a bit of mystery to me. I can see Redfoo really excelling the high energetic dances but I think there would have to be a lot of effort going into the more styled, calm dances such as Waltz or Rumba. I think Redfoo will bring lots of energy and it’ll be fun to watch him and Emma though.
As we know, large fan bases do not equal votes. That being said I’m a big fan of Shark Tank. If Mark Cuban “throws down” on his twitter feed for MAVS fans to vote for Robert, they will. He is their hero. They carried him to week 5 when the judges mercifully scored him low enough to send him packing. Robert is very athletic and in good shape. Does not guarantee he can dance, but he gets the training aspect of the show. Add in Kym’s fan base (me included) who have been praying she would return, I think her fans will be voting like crazy to insure she hangs around for awhile. So Robert is my dark horse pic. What the bookies use for reference is beyond me. But if they see this as sports-dance, then I would venture to say their early pics lean toward the sports-centric background and the # of wins by their partner.
“Mental Midgets”. I really like that!
I’m with Vin in thinking Suzanne has a shot at top 5. After last season with Tommy I’m no longer putting mature age into the negative column. Suzanne is well known to the core viewing audience and she has a popular pro.
My surprise elimination would be Riker. My “For the love of God! Please just go away!” early elimination would be The Bachelor.
Top 4-Redfoo and Emma, Nastia and Derek, Rumer and Val, Noah and Sharna
My guesses for top three are Nastia and Derek, Rumer and Val, Redfoo and Emma. I am still thinking and hoping Nastia may win this thing if she dances as well as I hope she will. I love the challenge she offered to Derek about the fact that he has 5 “silver” MBTs and why not go for a “gold” one? Why not, indeed? LOL. Win or lose, I am loving team Houghkin and can’t wait to watch their beauty on the dance floor.
# DW couldn’t agree more. I wish some people just forgot abou Derek’s 5 MBT’s and enjoyed their dance. It would defenitely be fair to Nastia.
I also have high hopes for T. Houghkin. Thinking about the freestyle Derek created for Bethany, thinking about how much Derek has undoubtedly been inspired by RCMH/NYC and that this will be his first choreographic opportunity to express some of that, and thinking about the level of ability he will have with Nastia, they will be a force. This gold mirrorball is somehow bringing All Stars (not happily) to mind. I would love for (Shawn’s Olympic teammate) Nastia and Detek to get the gold.