DWTS Season 20, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers
Now is when it starts to get real. No more low hanging fruit to be picked off – at least not in my opinion. This is a week where I start off writing this post really not sure what’s going to happen. The scoring didn’t seem too crazy – keeping in mind that I missed Michael’s dance and haven’t gone back yet to watch it. The rest of it seems pretty reasonable. Chris is higher than I expected, so I guess Witney toning down the choreo to his level (which is what you’re supposed to do, really) paid off. Part of me wonders if the judges thought he was going home and were being kind. In any case, if I were ranking the couples, this is probably what I would have come up with, based on Monday night.
Let’s take a look at the scores and the corresponding percentages:
Finally, there aren’t a whole bunch of ties – Patti is all alone at the bottom. I’ll tell you what, though – I’m not at all sure she is going home. She doesn’t have to do a lot to beat Michael. See below.
This is why this week is hard. Patti doesn’t have to do much to beat Michael, but Michael doesn’t have to do much to beat Suzanne. Suzanne has to work a bit harder to beat Chris, but she is Suzanne and she is a TV icon whose demo falls in line with the DWTS audience. Not to mention that she seems to be having FUN. The head gear may have cost her though. I don’t know.
Anyway, I skip ahead. In a nutshell, all Patti needs is 6,400 more votes per million votes cast than Michael to be safe. I tend to think that she can get that. I still wanna be her when I grow up – I can’t be alone. If she doesn’t beat Michael, she needs nearly 10k more votes per million votes cast to beat Suzanne. Not so sure about that one. Hard to say.
It may not matter. It seems we have some of the possibly larger fanbases toward the bottom of the leader board and some of the questionable fanbases higher up in the rankings. This is what makes it hard. How large is large and how questionable is questionable?? If all those who I consider to have uncertain fanbases were at the bottom, it would be easier. I think Michael’s is questionable, which is why he might be in trouble.
As you can see, Michael needs only 3,200 votes per million votes cast to beat Suzanne. The real question is, can he do that? If he can’t beat Suzanne, and Patti is beating him, then he goes home – unless he’s beating someone higher up the leaderboard. Chris is the next person up the leader board, and Michael would have to get 12.8k more votes per million votes cast to beat him. This I don’t think he can do, because Chris is part of Bachelor Nation. I also have a hard time believing he’s beating Robert, because Robert has been so endearing.
Okay, so who’s safe? Nastia, Riker, Rumer, Willow and Noah I’m calling definitely safe for this week. Patti could be killing them all, but there’s no way that Michael or Chris is passing any of them. I tend to doubt that Suzanne is beating any of them either. But remember, she doesn’t have to – she and Michael only have to beat ONE other person to be safe.
I tend to believe that Robert is safe. He may not be beating anyone above him on the leaderboard, but I don’t think anyone below him is passing him either. That leaves us with Patti, Michael, Suzanne and Chris.
I showed you what kind of votes Patti and Michael need, what kind of votes does Suzanne need?
It’s probably easier to see what’s going on with Suzanne if I break it down like this. For Suzanne to be SAFE, she needs ONE of the following things to happen:
- Suzanne needs for Patti to NOT get 9.6k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- Suzanne needs for Michael to NOT get 3.2k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- Suzanne needs 10k more votes per million votes cast than Chris, OR;
- Suzanne needs 12.8k more votes per million votes cast than Robert, OR;
- Suzanne needs 16k more votes per million votes cast than Noah, OR;
- Suzanne needs 22.4k more votes per million votes cast than Willow, OR;
- Suzanne needs 25.6k more votes per million votes cast than Rumer, OR;
- Suzanne needs 28.8k more votes per million votes cast than either Nastia or Riker.
Now, I don’t believe she’s beating Noah, Willow, Rumer, Riker or Nastia but Robert and Chris are questionable. She could be beating them, but I kinda doubt it. I do think that it’s more possible that Michael doesn’t cover the spread. Tough call. I kinda think Patti covers the spread, at least for one more week. Which makes it sound like I’m thinking it comes down to Michael and Suzanne. And that is what I’m thinking. 🙂
But first, let’s take a look at why I think Chris is safe this week.
As you can see, Chris only needs 3,200 more votes per million votes cast than Robert, and 6,400 more votes than Noah. Now, he may not cover either of those spreads, but he’s got several people below him. Here’s what would have to happen for Chris to be eliminated – ALL of the following:
- Patti would have to get 19.2k more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;
- Michael would have to get 12.8k more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;
- Suzanne would have to get9.6k more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;
- Chris would not be able to cover the spread between him and everyone above him on the leader board (Table 5)
Like I said, it’s possible that Patti is killing it…and Suzanne could be beating him…but I don’t think all three of them (Patti, Michael and Suzanne) are covering the spread. Which means Chris would be safe. That leaves us with Patti, Michael and Suzanne. Since I think Patti gets her 6,400 votes to beat Michael, I think she’s going to be safe. Which leaves us with Suzanne and Michael. Long winded way to get there, but that’s how I logic it out. I’m not sure that Patti beats Suzanne and that will determine if the last two standing are Patti and Michael or Suzanne and Michael. A third possibility is, of course, Chris and Michael could be the last two, if Patti and Suzanne are both getting tons of votes.
I am leaning toward it being Suzanne and Michael or Patti and Michael. And in all scenarios I think Michael gets eliminated.
Boo. From here on out it’s pretty much going to suck.
Wow, great article, the eliminations from here on our are going to suck, but this one will tell us a lot about where the fan bases stand. I honestly think RIKER/NASTIA-ROBERT on the leaderboard are safe. I am convinced Patti is killing it in the votes, but i don’t think she covers the 22k spread needed to pass Robert, nor does Michael cover the 15k spread. S is my question mark, but I think likability protects Robert and Kym for at least one more week.
My prediction, Suzanne and Michael are the Bottom 2 with Michael going home
Thank you for the Numbers post, Princess H! Always appreciate this, even if at times I have to read twice to fully grasp everything, LOL!
I believe Patti is able to cover the difference between her and Michael and Suzanne. She is just so amazing, an icon, and I’m pretty sure lots of the regular viewers vote for her.
To me the numbers indicate that either Michael or Suzanne goes home. I’ll be sad; I like both of them. I just hope that their dances next week turn out good. At least, the celeb going home will do so on a high note.
Believe me, it hurts my brain at times to figure out what I think will happen, Nobleze. 🙂
#2 Nobleze – I need to read it twice as well and still get myself confused. Hats off, as always, to you Heidi.
I also think you are right with the bottom two and with either one it will be sad to see them go.
After this week it’s going to be tough and all couples better be bringing their A game, especially to appease Grumpy Len and do things they ways he likes them done.
Great post as always, thanks for number crunching. One of these weeks I wish the judges would just give even scores so we could really see fanbase power….
I know I’ve asked this before – do we have any estimation on how many millions of votes DWTS gets each week? You mention votes per million, but on average how many millions of votes are cast? I know it changes each week and probably increases in the semis and finals, but i’ve never had a good idea.
thanks!
Bing is predicting Suzanne to be eliminated, but I tend to agree more with you. Peta hasn’t been eliminated this early since her first season, so that’s sad.
Can see boos in the ballroom and another lecture by Tom and Erin if Michael goes on Monday. “You gotta vote guys”. I will predict Michael goes home since I have doubts over his fanbase unlike Chris last week & he really did get badly lost in the shuffle on Monday.
Suzanne will be going home this week …as Nicole Scherzinger asked her 5.23m followers to vote for Michael-Peta on twitter.
Also Micahel is giving the show a lot of buzz due to the controversial statements he made recently which offended other gay NFL players. So i DON’T think DWTS is going eliminate him anytime soon.
DWTSFAN is right I forgot about Nicole tweeting her support for them. I think this week will tell us a lot in terms of fan support.
I am looking for a few things
1) I think Patti is killing it in votes, but by how much compared to the others
2) Robert’s fan support is difficult to judge, clearly people really like them but is that motivating people to pick up the phone?! Is the Shark Tank audience voting?!
3) Suzanne is the biggest question mark for me in terms of support! She is a TV icon but is she drawing the numbers to beat out Robert or Chris?! And keep Patti and Michael from making up the spread
I think it’s tentatively down to Michael or Suzanne, but that is a far from definitive guess
I thought Chris got a bit of a gift score last week because I too think they thought he was going home. Which makes me sad because I’d rather Michael stay, he seems to have more potential to keep growing as a dancer imo.
I think it’s Michael going home as I agree with PH logic. I really don’t think Nicole S. asking her followers to vote has any measurable effect on votes. The only easy way to vote is by phone and the window for doing that is pretty small. And even picking up the phone and dialing it for a show you don’t care about for a celeb you might know nothing about, so what if someone famous you follow tells you to do it. As for her followers who follow dwts, they’re going to vote for whoever they were going to vote for, imo. One effect of her tweet is to make her followers take notice of the show in general and perhaps make them take a peek on utube or tune in for a minute next week, *maybe*
Thanks for this! I love, love, love Dancing By the Numbers posts!
Fascinating fascinating as always!! You have my brain getting a good work out already this morning. And Wow, I didn’t realize Pati and Michael were so close. And then there is the numbers between Suzanne and Chris. 😯 Wow, I’m not sure what’s going to happen, but, I’m almost thinking it might be Michael going home too. ….which is ok because I’m not sure his heart is in it like the rest of them. I like Suzanne, Patti, and Chris more. I hope hope it’s not Chris. He’s just starting to bloom. I’d love to see him continue on for what we were beginning to see last week.
Vogue, you’re such a sweet softie I bet I can get you to change your mind :). Only kidding, you don’t need to change your mind, we all like who we like. But I was just reading more about Michael Sam and he’s sure had a hard life. I think he needs this show way more than Chris, I’m not talking finances, but the pleasure of the journey as some have had, being surprised by the joy and transformation…
Thanks. I’m torn and not sure what to think? lol
I think Michael might have done better with a partner like Emma who knows how to bring out her partners’ endearing qualities. Peta seems to do better with partners who are “camera ready” if you will. I agree with PH’s prediction that he might be next because his routines have been forgettable for the most part and I’m not sure the audience got a taste of who he is. I will be a little surprised if the others didn’t connect with the audience more, but this season has been a difficult one to predict so only a few eliminations would really surprise me. If not Michael, I also think perhaps Suzanne. As with Peta, I don’t think Tony brought out the best in his partner, and I don’t think he should be allowed in the wardrobe design room.
Even tho I’m sad that he’s likely going home, I’ll admit to having not voted for him or connecting yet too much to their dances. I was just reading the lyrics to his song for this week and then reading more about his childhood and it made me sad and wanting to root for him more. But all along I’ve always wanted him last longer than Chris because I just don’t get the whole bachelor thing plus to me Chris moves lurchy. But I’m happy that people here like all different people.
I agree with Rachel that this week will give us an indication on how people are voting. It’s going to be hard to predict from here on out.
My gut is Michael and Suzanne are the true bottom two (even if they don’t tell us that). I go back and forth on who is going between the two of them. I really don’t think Michael is pulling in that many votes as he didn’t come in with a dedicated NFL fan base like our other football players have. Suzanne does have the nostalgia factor and she is fun and light hearted. Ahhh I can’t decide. I’m going to say Michael…for now.
Robert is actually very interesting to me. He’s an okay dancer, very endearing, charming, people love him and Kym and the Shark Tank audience is actually in line with the DWTS fan base. There are a lot of comments about him on the DWTS Facebook group so people are talking about him. There’s a small part of me that wonders if he’ll knock someone out of the semis or maybe even the finals…
I don’t think that’s ever been revealed , SueB. I wish. But I get the feeling that it’s a low number, otherwise they would be bragging about it a la American Idol of days past. “30 million of you voted!” and so on. If DWTS was pulling those kinds of numbers, I think they would say so. It might only be just a couple million.
Gee, DWTSFan, why should we believe you since this is the third elimination in a row that you’ve predicted it would be Suzanne?? Really, even a stopped clock is right twice a day so maybe Monday will be your turn.
I do fear the most for Michael, which is a shame because I think he has the potential to go deeper into the competition and show growth. But he had an off week at a really bad time. If Michael is not going home, then I think it’s Suzanne, who I also think has more to show but I’d be less disappointed if she went home on Monday.
Suzanne doesn’t have to beat out Robert or Chris, CC, she only has to hope that those below her don’t cover the spread. She doesn’t have to do both, she only has to have ONE.
And I don’t think Nicole, as much as I love her, has the power to sway the public in large numbers. Only Bieber has that kind of power. 🙂
Peta is one of my favorite pros, and I’ll be sad to see her go so early. But I don’t think Michael’s heart is in it, though I’d rather see him stay over Suzanne. I don’t really care too much for her, and LOL yes, keep Tony out of wardrobe! I don’t think Patti will be on too much longer, either. Her dances are enjoyable, but I’d rather see more from those who have a much higher potential to improve.
Yeah, I think Patti only has one, maybe two, more weeks in her. It all hinges on how well Chris and Robert do.
Thanks for the numbers PH. I think Michael’s DWTS journey is over. While I feel it’s absolutely the wrong elimination, my guess is Michael will be relieved once the initial sting of getting the boot wears off.
The judges have been using him for target practice for the past two weeks, nit-picking everything, while they tongue bathe others who are far worse dancers. So I’d rather put him out of his misery.
I hope the judges have the decency to give him some positive feedback on Monday. The disparity in their treatment of the celebs is pretty distasteful to me.
Exactly, Cidra. It’s actually what I find to be the most difficult part to stomach about DWTS. I love the show when it’s at its best – positive and heartwarming, genuine, and embracing the strengths of each person. What I hate is when the producer agenda interrupts this to degrade or disrespect or discount anyone’s particular efforts. I know there are some people that like the international versions of DWTS that are much more harsh, but I prefer the respectful, conscientious judging that I know this show is capable of, but seems to forgo on occasion.
I have only voted for Michael as I think he does have more talent than Patti, Chris, and Suzanne, put together. It will unfortunate to see him go as I think he could be in the top 5 or 6.
I already knew about his childhood and his football history. I am sure that this will be an unpopular opinion, but I’ll bet he’s getting the LGBT community and supporters votes. As far as the other gay players, there were only a few who spoke out against him. Even those players who did are getting heat because they are speaking out annonimously. It understandable, but it’s not getting much support or respect. You want to speak out as part of the gay community and you don’t like someone else representing you, then say your name or shut up.
Michael is getting more support and respect for being honest and living his truth. He may not get an NFL contract, but he’s not hiding either. Mad respect from me.
PH. Thanks again from this post! Your hard work is appreciated. This is one time I hope your wrong….I will be bummed.
Watching Michael’s dance last Monday, DH commented that perhaps as a Defensive linebacker Michael doesn’t have the same ‘moves’ as the other football players who have been successful on the show for their dance abilities (running back, wide receiver etc). I just found it amusing that he would think of DWTSs in ‘football think’, and clearly in his personal opinion Michael doesn’t move as well on the dance floor as precious DWTSs football contestants.
Granted DH will watch DWTSs when I have the show on TV, but he wouldn’t vote anyway. It will be interesting to see if the football fan base will vote based on an association with football in general, or were/are they voting based on perceived skill level.
Ummm – that would be previous not precious!
Is there a reason why Michael is getting nitpicked by the judges? I feel like there’s usually a motive for doing so: either a) he’s a naturally gifted dancer + he’s getting a ton of viewers votes, so TPTB want to even out the judges’ scores/viewer votes so that all the other contestants have a “fair” shot in the competition (ie, Nicole from season 10, Shawn from All-Stars, Amber from season 17) OR b) TPTB want to “protect” another contestant from getting eliminated & so, are using Michael as a tool (ie, Ralph from season 11 to protect Chelsea, Charlie from season 18 to protect Meryl).
I don’t think either possibilities fit into Michael’s situation, so maybe there’s another reason that I don’t know about. But if there’s no reason why, I think it’s really mean of the judges & TPTB to treat Michael this way.
Don’t the ‘stars’ get paid based on tiers of weeks they y ‘stay on the show? If michael is really just in it for the ‘job’ (ie cash) then he might be a little mad if they give him the Ralph treatment and send him home earlier…
Sueb #31, I read in some article (not sure where) that each celeb gets $150,000 for signing up and gets additional $$$ for every week they progress. I think I read that during season 16. I could be wrong, though.
Michael is a not that great of a dancer and hell he is not even a ‘star’ …so if he goes home, it’ll be fair only. Also, I DON’T think the judges are nitpicking him for ”any motive”..but it’s just he danced bad last week.
IMO, CHRIS is a better dancer than Michael.. and Suzanne/Patti both are more entertaining than him. So Micahel neither dances that great, nor he’s got that entertaining personality like Patti or Suzanne.
DWTSFan, I’m going to gently disagree with you about whether Michael Sam is a “star”. He’s the first openly gay footballer to play in the NFL. Big headlines and protests from small minded individuals resulted from this.
He overcame a lot to get to where he is. One brother was shot and killed, two older brothers were both incarcerated, at one point in his childhood he was homeless and lived with his mom in her car, he was the first person in his family to go to college. I think he’s as much an inspiration as Noah is.
I do think he’s in jeopardy of going home, which is a shame. He has potential to be a good dancer. The spark is there. I hope Peta comes up with a great dance for him Monday night and that Michael rises to the challenge regardless of whether he goes home or not.
IMO Michael has much more potential than Chris. I am sorry, but Chris barely moved during their AT. As others have said, he was simply a pole that Witney danced around.
My one complaint about Peta is her penchant for lifts. I feel whenever she has a dance that allows lifts, she goes overboard. I love lifts, but only if they add to the dance, not if they are the dance.
DWTSfan, I have to agree with Susan2, Michael is a “star” in DWTS terms, and I definitely think he’s a better dancer than Chris. In my opinion he’s also dances better than Suzanne or Patti (neither of whom do much actual dancing).
I feel he is being singled out for the harshest criticism and least praise because TPTB consider him (and Charlotte before him) as this season’s cannon fodder. The show doesn’t want to lose icons like Suzanne and Patti or Bachelors (who bring that fan base) too early in the season so the Stooges can’t be honest about their (lack of) dancing. Therefore, to give the appearance that they’re “judging”, they nitpick Michael and Charlotte.
Cidra, your comments make sense and help to put things in perspective. Unfortunately, Sam doesn’t ooze much personality, which seems to make celebs on DWTS fly under the radar. I thought Jacoby was somewhat similar, except Jacoby was more high profile. I think that’s the problem some are having with Nastia, those that aren’t targeting her to knock Derek down anyway..
Michael hasn’t been in the fake bottom 2 or 3 like Noah or Suzanne but then maybe they don’t care if he goes home.
To me, Michael is as much of a star as most of the past celebs that have done.(Except for some true ICONS) but I like Michael and I would much rather Michael stay and Chris leave. Chris was way over scored for an AT that consisted of Chris just standing in one spot while Witney danced around him.
Great to be back on here, had some real computer issues.. and a stubborn hubby… Let’s just leave it at that. 🙂
Cidra #36, if Michael is being nitpicked in order to protect Suzanne & Patti, that makes sense to me, although, I always thought NFL players had bigger fanbases than Bachelors.
And I agree w/ Sandy #39, I would rather Michael stay over Chris (although I prefer Witney’s choreo over Peta’s), but I feel Michael is not only a better natural dancer, but has a more interesting story to tell, being the first openly gay NFL player.
Cidra, I could not agree more. My question is are people really watching to see Patti or SS dance? I like Patti, but she’s not going to be around unless Artem actually has her dance more. At least I find her entertaining!
I can’t even watch SS. It is just too painful on every single level. I really don’t care if she is a TV icon. She needs to go.
Michael’s last dance wasn’t great, but he was underscored. He kept in time, did not drop Peta, and actually danced by you know moving around the floor! Chris was basically a pole that clodded around a few times and he got higher scores? Suzanne had a few glaring mistakes and got the same scores as Michael?
I don’t get it.
Jane, the thing is, Michael doesn’t have an established one team fan base that will vote diehard no matter what like Hines Ward had SteelerNation, Emmitt Smith had Dallas fans, etc. that kept them in long enough to pick up more casual voters as the season has gone on. He’s not quite standing out.
At the same time, I think Peta let him down choreographically the last couple weeks. YMMV, of course.
CM, I agree Peta let Michael down with last week’s choreography; way too many lifts. I think the problem with Week 2’s Foxtrot wasn’t the choreography but the lack of rehearsal time because Michael had to concentrate on the NFL veterans’ combine. For him, it was the right decision to focus on the combne, but it did hurt him on DWTS. As you said, he’s just not standing out.