New Las Vegas Odds For Dancing With The Stars Week 5 – Lots Of Switching Going On
What a difference a week, another dance, and an elimination can make. The odds makers have placed their new bets for week 5 of Dancing With The Stars Season 20 at Sports Bovada. Note how there has been some switching among the contestants compared to last week’s odds. It’s also interesting how someone in the middle of their predictions have been eliminated every week so far. Could the same happen this week? I don’t know, but, be sure to let us know what you think in comments after you take a look….
Nastia Liukin 10/11
Willow Shields 3/1
Rumer Willis 7/2
Riker Lynch 12/1
Robert Herjavec 12/1
Noah Galloway 33/1
Suzanne Somers 66/1
Chris Soules 100/1
Patti LaBelle 100/1
Last week’s Odds:
Nastia Liukin 10/11
Rumer Willis 3/1
Riker Lynch 6/1
Willow Shields 10/1
Michael Sam 20/1
Noah Galloway 20/1
Robert Herjavec 20/1
Chris Soules 50/1
Suzanne Somers 50/1
Patti LaBelle 100/1
My thoughts: First of all, I was shocked to see Riker and Robert tied. Robert stepped it up last week, but, I don’t think he has the dance ability of Riker in the least. Then again, it’s not always about “dance ability”? I also think Noah is making a bigger impact than the odds makers think. He should be in 5th place (atleast) in my opinion. Though it’s interesting….every time I ask my boss and my co-worker what they think of every show and who they are liking the most this season, they say NOAH! My Dad is loving him too, but, he loves Nastia as well. He’s been giving all of his votes to her and Derek every week (good job, Dad!). Anyway, other than switching Noah and Robert, I think the odds makers are about right. I’d place the top four in the same way right now. I was really happy to see them put Willow in second especially.
Heidi and Court, what do you think?
Courtney: Not a whole lot to add about this week’s odds – glad they finally see that Chris is really not much to sneeze at, but like Vogue, I’m also a bit puzzled at why they have Riker & Robert tied. Then again, if they’re buying into what the judges are saying…it would make sense, because Riker kinda got picked apart while Robert got praised this past week. I don’t think Robert has gotten a very harsh critique yet – they’ve gone pretty easy on him, while Riker (the better dancer) seems to be getting a lot more constructive criticism about everything from his hands to his frame to “dancing like a girl”. Have wonder if the oddsmakers also recognize that Rumer’s becoming a tad one-note, too…as she’s been slipping a bit each week since week 1. Good to see Willow making her way up the chart – I think she’s going to be one to watch in the coming weeks.
Heidi: They seem to buy into what the judges say every season with no regard for anything else. The exception being Nastia, I think. Have the judges really raved over her? I don’t think so – not any more so than they have Rumer. But she has been beating Rumer in scores the last few weeks, so maybe that’s the difference. But not enough for Willow to knock Nastia down in the rankings. It’s all rather interesting. I would love to know how they come up with this stuff. Honestly, I don’t know what’s going to happen (for a change) and that is rather exciting. I still don’t think Nastia can win (and Derek’s show was extended to the 7th due to it’s popularity, so no let up on his schedule), I have a hard time believing Willow can win….but I also think that if Rumer were killing it in votes she would be getting better scores. After all, there is nothing the judges like more than being “right”. If Riker’s fans are the voting kind, he could actually win. I just don’t know. So, I guess I can understand the odds being a bit hinky. 🙂
I always enjoy seeing these numbers predicting the winner and reading the Angels take on them, but the numbers I most like to read are PH and the discussion about current week elimination.
I think if Noah and Sharna can make it to the finals, between what she’ll choreograph for their freestyle, his being military and overcoming such trauma by hard work, AND his complete embrace of this dwts experience, they might be hard to beat. They seem to be getting widespread media exposure by places that don’t really cover dwts, eg this morning, midwest town, running errands, classic rock station had a long interview with them and the dj’s were really promoting him/them.
If they make it to the finals I can easily see top 2 being Noah and Nastia.
I can easily see Robert making it at least to top 5 because he also seems to be so completely embracing the experience. Mark gushed about him on afterbuzz because he has no ego and works his tail off.
Other than Riker and Robert I think these odds are much more realistic.
Oh boy, If Mark comes in 2nd again he might explode. Shirley wasn’t too happy last season.
I really wished Riker had a better partner. Allison is a great dancer, just not in ballroom. I’m sorry. Hopefuly he wont get Cody’d, but i have no assurance.
It is Disney week and week 5… Hopefully there wont be a coincidence.
Yeah, Noah is too low. He could easily make the finals if things go his way; probably knocking Riker, Willow or maybe even Rumer tbh. I mean if YouTube views are any indication (which isnt realiable, I know), he is certainly going to make Top 4.
On FB Noah’s contempory has like 18 million views. Nastia’s AT has over 3 million. The rest are not really in the radar. So I get the feeling these will be the top 2. And the funny thing is on Monday I felt these two were underscored. But the thing with Noah is I felt he shined in the AT and Contempory because lifts were allowed. Now barring Jazz, Salsa, and Freestyle he cant do lifts in his dances.
Yeah, but, Ananya, you can’t judge who is going to win by views or likes or whatever on YT or social media. For instance, last season Bethany Mota’s twitter likes and YT views were off the hook and look how that turned out.
At this point I THINK the order will be Noah, Nastia, and Rumer. Unless Noah and Sharna get injured or the judges start low balling their scores I think Noah wins. It will be a toss up between Robert, Willow, and Riker for 4th. It just depends upon who messed up and who shine more.
Jess (the old lady one). I don’t know if Mark will be upset if he comes in 2nd this time. He really seems to respect Noah, Robert, Nastia, and Rumer. I think there was something about Alfonso that grated on Mark’s nerves. Maybe his dance/entertainer experience. I’m not saying he didn’t respect/like Alfonso. Something just seemed off there.
Please let me know if I’m out of line in responding to posters. I don’t want to come off as quarrelsome.
I agree Heidi! I don’t know what is going to happen and is a nice change! I don’t remember the last time the audience did not have an pretty realistic idea of who were going to be top 3. The last couple of eliminations will be painful for sure.
Has Nastia been at the top all of the LV Odds?
I really think the top 3 will be someone from the top 4 in that list(Nastia, Willow, RUmer, Ryker) and Noah. I also agree that RObert is a bit too high. At this point I believe it will depend a lot on the pros. That makes me worry for Ryker and Rumer because I have no doubt that Derek, Mark and Sharna are pros at creating routines for the audiences. They know this game. So does Kym.
I want to add… although I think Robert is to high, I’m not ready to discount him just yet. Personality has taken people far in this show and if he and Kym keep being so lovely they might continue to add fans/votes (especially the older audiences which we know is huge). And maybe once Patti and Suzanne are gone (assuming they leave first) maybe some of those votes will go to him.
@Ananya – Noah’s video has basically gone viral on my Facebook feed – people who don’t even watch the show are watching it, commenting on it, and sharing it. But therein lies the issue: I doubt very many of them are actually tuning in and voting for Noah. All those views are just that – views. You can’t really make a correlation between how many people are watching and how many are actually voting.
And I think you’re oversimplifying a bit with the whole lift thing, too – I don’t think Noah’s appeal lies solely in his ability to do lifts.
Vogue, I know it’s not a perfect indicator, but I still feel it’s a sign of who might end up
In the finals. Last season I believe it was Sadie who constantly got crazy amount of views on SM. So I definitely see Noah bumping out either Rumer, Riker, or Willow out of the top 5. Then again lot can change in the next 6 weeks.
Oh how I love the Vegas odds-makers…always give me a chuckle.
These odds are slightly more realistic than they have been but I still don’t think Nastia is winning. I honestly think she’ll come in 3rd place. I really go back and forth on who I think will make the finals and the final order. I think that’s mostly because I question the size of each celebs fan base. No one has a runaway massive fan base, they are all fairly equally. And even with Riker and Willow I don’t know if their fans will keep voting.
I’m also ambivalent about the finals because it all depends on how much TPTB interfere. After the first episode I said Rumer is winning because she’s a good dancer yes but mostly because the show is pushing for Val to win. They’ve toned it down some but I think they will start her “comeback” arc during Disney week and slowly start to pimp her up again. If that’s the case I think she’s winning. If they just let things play out then anyone from Willow to Noah could end up winning.
If either of those celebs end up winning the FAM is going to have to keep their mouths shut. No one will feel sympathy for them if they pick on a 14 year old or a war vet.
Yeah, there is NO reliability in facebook or youtube views. We seem to have this discussion every season. Some of the videos by some of the worst dancers got tremendous number of views and the person in question did not win. Bethany is the most recent example. James was an example – if facebook likes were accurate, Amy would have gotten fourth while James got second.
As for Noah winning?? You guys are forgetting a very important part of the equation – the judges. Unless the judges suddenly start throwing lots of 9’s Noah’s way, he’s going to have a huge hurdle to overcome in the finale if he makes it that far. I doubt very much you’re going to see a repeat of all 8s (that was memorable year stuff, afterall) – even if he does get all 8s, it might still be impossible. Because at some point Nastia, Rumer, Riker and Willow are all going to be getting combinations of 9s and 10s.
You can say as often as you like that it is the voters who count – but that is ONLY true when the scores are close to tied.
Sadie also had decent scores most of the time, Ananya.
I’m loving this season’s unpredictability for some reason. The right top 6 should be Noah Robert Willow Rumer Nastia and Riker but even that is not a guarantee. It’s really hard to figure out how many votes Robert and Noah are pulling in compared to the others. I’m hoping this week provides some clarity. I compare them to Candace in a way as we didn’t see a huge fanbase presence on social media but she made the final.
Hi Dee2, It wasn’t me who said Marks would be upset, I agree with you he seems to really respect the ones you listed. Of course like anyone he would like to win sometimes but I think he’s happy his partner is embracing his creativity and is having fun this season no matter the outcome. Also, I know it’s not for me to go against what might be against the site rules of conduct, but I never mind someone commenting on my comments and disagreeing, especially when state respectfully.
An interesting question: how much money actually gets bet on this? After all, in sports, the lines and odds (and their movements) reflect what the public is doing, not necessarily what the books think will actually happen.
Princess Heidi That’s why you are so much better at predicting than I am. It sounds bad but I’m just ready for Suzanne, Chris, and Patti to go. I don’t want any of the others getting knocked out because of them.
#Jess(the old lady one). I’m sorry. I’m at the Drs office on my phone and it’s hard to see/figure it out sometimes. I’m getting old
I don’t seem to understand how both riker and willow were in jeopardy their scores were pretty high . Does that mean they aren’t getting enough votes compared to the others ??? Will they be knocked out by low scoring couples???
I wonder if people vote for “second favorites.” Like, if their favorite that they hardcore voted for getsvoted off, would they not vote? Switch votes? Vote based on a pro they like? Maybe wait until the finale to vote? And then I know some who just vote based on the freestyle they like best.
Really interested to see how it plays out.
gabyro, jeopardy either means they aren’t getting the votes or it means nothing at all – it is just used as a dramatic device. This is one of those things you don’t figure out until it’s over.
These odds are getting more and more realistic as the weeks go on. I don’t think Nastia and Derek will win though. I honestly don’t think they will be in the top four. Robert has been out performing Riker in technique, however, he doesn’t have the natural dance ability that Riker has (Anna said the exact same thing on Afterbuzz about them). So for me they really are more evenly matched. Maybe if Riker had a pro with more ballroom experience he would be higher in the pack? I like Allison but for me she stands out like a sore thumb when compared to the other pros. Not in a bad way, just in the fact that she is so different. And Kym is sooo amazing at making her partner shine and showing the audience a complete journey.
My top four are Rumor, Willow, Robert & Noah. Two young couples with amazing dance ability, technique and performance. And two who are “fan favorites”. Noah has such an inspirational story and Sharna has done such an amazing job with him I see him in the finale. If he isn’t then Nastia or Riker could fill his spot.
I agree with the Las Vegas odds for top four and really hope Nastia will win because I don’t think anyone else comes close to her talent and I just can’t get enough of Team Houghkin’s wonderful dances. I was thinking about her “Most Memorable Year” package and wondering if it was harder for people to relate to a triumph rather than a set-back, and whether it would’ve been better received if she had explained how she had to overcome her injuries even to be able to participate in the Olympics. Oh well, water under the bridge. I was a little surprised also that Riker and Robert were tied as I think Riker has a lot more natural talent but Allison is holding him back, I fear. I love Robert’s heart and dedication and his teaming with Kym is just adorable! For that reason, I hope he lasts a while longer as Chris, Noah, Suzanne, and Patti exit, in that order.
I still don’t think Nastia-Derek can win …the biggest drawback is lack of chemistry and emotions. If Derek-Nastia can work on their chemistry more ..then i think they can win.
Derek’s choreography will be great as always …but her boring personality and lack of chemistry will not let ’em win.
IMO, Rumer-Val still has the maximum chances of winning so far.
I hope i’m wrong and Nastia-Derek wins somehow as i’m rooting for ’em.
DWTSFan, you have the “maximum chances” of annoying the piss out of me with the way you state your own opinion as fact.
Nastia doesn’t have a boring personality to everyone though. I don’t find her boring at all and I see the chemistry between her and Derek forming more and more each week. On the other hand I just don’t see what is so personable and charismatic about Rumer. Yes she is a great dancer but her intensity and her earlier ego turned me off of her rather quickly.
Like with all the couples on this show, everyone relates to each celeb differently. You see Nastia as boring but that doesn’t make it a concrete fact. If that is your opinion then awesome and you are entitled to it, but saying she has no chance to win because she of that? I just can’t get behind that because as I said, I don’t personally find her boring at all.
I don’t think Nastia is boring at all. She probably has a solid fan base along with Derek’s who aren’t going anywhere. The only real threat to them at this point might be Noah.
DWTSFan, I don’t find Nastia to be boring. I love her and Derek and I think they can win.
Nastia is opening up every week and the chemistry is getting better by the day. She is sweet and silly I found her silly from the 1st rehearsal video they posted where she was trying to imitate a fox for the Foxtrot if they keep at it they may totally win
I find her very sweet 🙂
Gee, DWTSFan, is this the same sort of assertion you make every single week about Suzanne Somers? “Nastia is boring.” “Suzanne will def be eliminated this week.” Blah blah blah.
You know, that old adage of “if you repeat something often enough it becomes fact” may work for Republicans, but we’re smarter than that around here. I also don’t buy the “I hope I’m wrong” angle either – just FYI.
DWTSFan It is not uncommon for people to see themselves in others and react accordingly. Hence the observation, “There’s something about that ol’ boy that I don’t like about me.” For your consideration.
Tired of all the talk about lack of chemistry, etc. To me, Nastia has been all in from the beginning. For some reason I think performing with someone (vs. alone) has been the biggest adjustment for Nastia. And I think now that she’s her 2008 win (arguably her greatest solo performance) has been commemorated in a dance with Derek, it’s going to be a new ballgame for her out on the floor. Especially since they have Jazz, I expect this dance to be phenomenal.
About Rumer, the similarity in her dance routines is mirrored in her costumes. When I saw her in costume last week, even before they started dancing I knew what to expect. Change it up!!!
And a random thought about Willow. I’m wondering if the elaborate production is actually quite helpful for her, as an actress, to get into character.” After all, she doesn’t have much life experience to fall back on. Just a thought.
Courtney, the lift thing was a personal preference. The first two weeks I felt Noah was very limited in his movements and steps, compared to weeks 3 and 4. I’m curious to see how Sharna choreographs a foxtrot for Noah.
I know Nastia’s chances of winning are reduced due to Derek’s success on the show, but it really will be a shame. I see her as so far ahead of the other contestants. Even at AB they were discussing how great it would’ve been to have Meryl and Nastia in the same season. I don’t want a season 15 type disappointment, but I guess I should prepare for it.
I think there was a backlash to overpimping of Rumer the 1st week. So they backed off, but I expect it to be back in full force by week 6 or 7. I think producers will push for a Val win.
The casinos are great money managers and not DWTS experts. Money bet changes the odds. Of course bettors are going to be influenced by each weeks performance. Right now at 11/10 Nastia is even odds against any of the other competitors (the 10 percent is the vig or casinos share). The bookmakers want even amounts bet so all the bets cancel out and they get their 10 percent. While this is more easily seen when there are two teams the principle remains the same when there is a field. Since you can not get points it is a money line bet.
What one has to remember is there is only 1 winner, coming in 2 loses. As an example Noah making it to the finals only matters if he wins.
A better example is the big change in odds this week with Willow. people reacted to her high score and Mark’s partnership and bet the odds from 10 to 1 down to 3 to one. The bookmakers want to even the money bet on willow.
Im just curious Princess Heidi, whos your Top 4 (in terms of making it to the finals) sonfar?
I think I said a while ago (although it’s possible I just thought it) that my likely top 4 are Nastia, Rumer, Riker and Robert. That was a while ago and I’m tempted to replace Robert with Willow, but it’s a really tough call.
Please note that this is NOT my preference, but it is what I think is likely right now. I think if I picked my personal top 4 it would be Nastia, Riker, Robert and Willow. I do have a feeling that I would love Rumer if she were dancing with anyone else. But the arrogance of the first two weeks and Val’s overall attitude is a problem for me.
I love watching Nastia and Derek dance. I’ve never had a problem with their chemistry and I think it’s just going to get stronger each week. I think they could win even though a lot of people are rooting for Val “because he’s never won before.” That’s not a good enough reason for me.
I could easily see Noah winning too – Sharna’s been doing a great job with him. If for any reason Derek and Nastia were out, I would definitely give my votes to Noah – or Ryker if he’s still in it.
I agree with Dee2 (#16), I really want Chris, Patti, and Suzanne gone in the next 3 weeks. The gulf between them and the other six is growing every week. So I’d be annoyed if any one of the bottom 3 stayed over the other 6.
At this point, I don’t see Noah making the finals. I think a quarter-final finish would be an excellent result. The judges are giving him well-deserved praise for the beautifully unique routines he and Sharna are doing, but they’re not getting carried away with their paddles. He and Sharna are amazing, and I expect they’ll continue to improve and expand on what Noah can do technically and bring out more and more performance quality in his dances every week. Will that be enough to keep him competitive with Nastia, Rumer and Willow? Right now, I don’t think so.
Currently, the 4 I see in the finals are: Nastia, Rumer, Robert, and Willow.
The 4 I would *like* to see in the finals are: Nastia, Rumer, Willow and Riker, with either Nastia or Willow taking the MBT.
As much as I love the sweet sincerity of Robert/Kym’s dancing, I find Riker much more dynamic on the floor. I think he’d almost be a shoo-in if he’d been paired with a ballroom-trained pro. I think he and Witney would have been amazing.
Those odds seem about right, although as a few others mentioned, I don’t see Nastia winning at this point.
I have a feeling Robert will pick up more votes as Suzanne/Patti are eliminated (it’s just a guess, but I think their fanbases will cross over to support Robert).
On the other hand, I think Noah might have peaked with ‘Most Memorable Year’ week and might plateau for the rest of the season. I don’t see the judges scoring him much higher, and while he does get tons of social media buzz, that doesn’t automatically translate to votes.
Riker and Willow are the most difficult to gauge when it comes to how many votes they are getting. I think younger fanbases tend to vote either fanatically or not at all.
Final Four Predictions: I think both Rumer/Nastia are F4 locks at this point. The other 2 spots could go to any combo of Riker/Willow/Robert and *maybe* Noah?
Final Four I want: It won’t happen but I can dream, cant I?Willow/Riker/Robert/Nastia. If Rumer is able to break out of the intense, hardcore dances and shows some range, I’d consider her over Nastia, but that doesn’t seem likely.
Eh, the top tiers seem reasonable to me. Methinks it would be a Nastia, Rumer, Riker, Robert, Willow and Noah top 6, unless someone else pull a Tommy and ended up pushing one/two of those from top 6/5.
I would LOVE to see Robert in the finale, it’s been forever since Kym did a freestyle (though her last one, Hines’, was one of the worst freestyles of all winners for me). My personal top 2 would be Nastia and Robert, actually.
I’d also like to see Noah doing a dance that must be strictly in hold the whole time like Quickstep or Tango. I think Sharna will be smart with the choreography, since now the dances left for Noah to do lifts were Jazz and Salsa (and Freestyle, of course). I’d like to see the return of Derek’s Quickstep as well.
I am going to have to disagree with this thing about Nastia & Derek having no chemistry and Nastia is boring. She is everything but boring!!! I love to watch perfection, and that is what this beautiful, blond, pure and natural, young lady is all about. She has much expression. So what do people want her to be like, over smiling, touchy feeling Robert? Although Robert has calmed down somewhat in the touchy department. Nastia is growing out of her stern, no emotional state from gymnastics and I’m enjoying her; and they are such a cute and well-matched couple. I can’t wait to see what Derek comes up with this coming Monday. This guy is totally amazing me with all that he has going on and yet manages to choreograph amazing dances for Nastia. I am thinking that having jazz style dance, Derek will choreograph something cute and funny; because it seems that jazz is that type of dance for it.
Heh. I loved Kym and Hines freestyle. I don’t remember many freestyles besides Derek’s, but I remember that one.
I enjoyed the drumline in Hines and Kym’s Freestyle. It was definitely better than the Kirstie/Maks and that bizarre Chelsea/Mark freestyle. It just seemed very…them.
I loved Kym and Hines freestyle as well. I loved the drumline and the lifts. It was a risk and it paid off. Actually it’s become one of my favorites.
I loved Hines’s freestyle because it was so different and so “him” (but also so *not* her). An Aussie female ballroom dancer doing a football halftime-inspired freestyle complete with drumline? She knew exactly how to showcase Hines. Kym is a top-notch pro.
Their freestyle was a party in the ballroom for sure. I also remember Donald and Peta’s freestyle for being so unexpected and so much damn fun.
I’m glad we are talking about some these past freestyles, it gave me an excuse to go and watch them again! And I love them now just as much as before.
And Yes, Donald and Peta’s was another one of my favorites.
Kym has always been a top notch pro. That woman is GOOD. She knows what to do for her celebrities and it as good, if not better, then the other female pros currently on the show. And I include Sharna.
I am soooo happy Kym is back to be honest, she combines a perfect mix of modern interpretations of style with classic ballroom, and I forgot how much I was missing some classic ballroom numbers until I saw her Waltz last week
I totally agree with both PH and Rachel. Kym brings something to the ballroom that the “newer” female pros just can’t pull off. She exudes sophistication even when she’s being sexy. The difference is that she is never blatantly sexy like some of the others with their grinding moves, etc. She tends to play it more cheeky if she’s going that route.
I’m on the Kym is GOOD bandwagon.
Agree – Kym is THAT good!
I loved Kym and Hines’s freestyle! Very unique, very “him”. I still wish I had seen freestyles from Romeo and Ralph that season. 🙁
And I love Kym’s approach to the show. No gimmicks, she is always a professional.
Alright, I’m alone then in the “Kym is totally, completely amazing but her freestyle with Hines sucked” wagon. Maybe the fact that I’m just not that much of a fan of the man counts? I also love Karina so much but her wind machine freestyle with J.R. wasn’t one of my favourite either, and I’m a fan of him.
The only sad part is, its likely that Kym will go back to judging in Australia after this season. I hope the producers try to convince her to stay on the show beyond this season, she is fantastic.
Not only is Kym fantastic, Rachel, but she is needed here imo to add some sophistication and “classic” moves to the female pro side of the show. I love Sharna and Emma, but they are not as seasoned as Kym yet and their choreography tends to be more modern. Kym adds some variety, especially since Cheryl and Karina are gone. I LOVED Hines freestyle! It’s one of the few freestyles I remember other than Derek’s.