DWTS Season 20, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Ah where to start this week? Well, I could rant about the judges (or was it just CAI) being total nut jobs in their scoring – towards Nastia and Robert, in particular – but I feel like I’m preaching to the choir and I got it out of my system earlier in the week. Besides, it very likely doesn’t matter that CAI is a complete ass, because I don’t think anyone is touching Nastia, Riker, or Rumer. And probably not Willow either. Although you never know…

DWTS 20 wk 5 table 1

Anyway, our crack addled judges underscored Robert pretty badly relative to others, like Chris and Patti, who aren’t as good at dancing – although Miss Patti is still my ball of light. 😉 As a result, this is the week that truly tests Robert’s place in this competition. Chris was able to beat Suzanne – although he needed few votes to do so, so it wasn’t a real test. THIS will be a real test…and I’m a skeered of the results. I love me some Robert. What does Robert need to do to beat at least one person to be safe?

DWTS 20 wk 5 table 2

Now if you’re me, you look at the above table and go “shit.” More than 10k votes to beat Chris. Jaysus. Well, 10k is really not that many votes. People have beaten MUCH bigger margins. Can’t remember what the record is (and I’m too lazy to look it up cuz it’s nice outside and I wanna go drink a nice shandy – writing this on Saturday, btw – even I draw the line on Sunday mornings…unless we’re talking champagne brunch then I’m all in), but it might still be Kurt Warner sending Audrina Patridge packing by getting around 45k more votes per million votes cast than her. In that context, 10k ain’t much. But dang – who wins this battle, the Bachelor or the Shark?? Please let it be the shark.

I honestly have no idea. I don’t have a feel for how either of them are really doing. And no, I don’t think that anyone is trying to get rid of Robert. There are times when I think the judges do that, but I don’t think this is one of them. Both men are ABC-family. There is nothing to gain by trying to keep one over the other, that I can see. It’s not logical. If one is getting substantially higher votes, then that’s the one they’re going to want to keep. I see no motive in keeping one over the other.

For the sake of argument, let’s say that Robert gets his 10k. What does Chris need to be safe?

DWTS 20 wk 5 table 3

Now, you’ll note that I left Miss Patti entirely out of the equation in my discussion above even though she has the same score as Chris. Why did I do that? Well, in looking at Chris’ table, I realized that it was also Patti’s table. Which means my gut says that Patti has another week in her. She only has to beat Chris by ONE vote to be safe and I have to believe that she’s getting that one vote. See, this is how I figure it – I figure that I can’t be the only woman in America who adores Miss Patti even though she barely dances.  Now, they may also LOVE Robert (as do I), but I have to think that she’s getting votes too. And she only needs ONE, so…

So, in looking at Tables 2 and 3, what stands out to YOU? What stands out to me that Willow, Riker, Nastia and Rumer are most likely safe. There are some nice big numbers between the upper tier and the lower tier which should be a nice cushion.  I don’t think Noah is going anywhere yet, even though Chris and Patti need less than 4k to beat him. I don’t think either one is beating him, although even if they were I don’t think Robert is, so he’s likely safe too.  However, it should be noted that he’s technically in the lower tier – he needs more than 20k votes per million votes cast to beat Willow – so my not including him in the lower tier is simply my thought that he’s safe for a while yet and is not based in actual scores.

That leaves us with Robert, Chris and Patti. These are my bottom 3 for the week. Now, I think Patti is getting the ONE vote to beat Chris. So, I think she will end up being safe, although they may put her in jeopardy just to be cute. Oh, another possibility is Robert and Patti splitting votes, I suppose, which could give Chris an opening.  But I’m going to stick with Patti being safe.

That leaves us with Chris and Robert. I have to believe that Robert is going to end up being safe – he’s enjoying himself so much and Chris just…isn’t.   So, I think Chris is going to be eliminated. If not him, then Robert. Third choice is Miss Patti.

Keep in mind that the numbers are relatively small, still – any one of Robert, Chris, Patti or Noah going home is not going to be “shocking”. Not really.  What would be shocking is if Willow, Riker, Rumer or Nastia get eliminated. I don’t think that’s going to happen this week. Take a look at their numbers.

DWTS 20 wk 5 table 4

You’ll see that Noah has a LOT of ground to cover to get past one of the top 4. Willow has less ground to cover to get past the top three, but it’s still a good bit. If the scores continue to shake out like this in the next two weeks, and Chris and Patti get eliminated, be on the lookout for a shocking elimination.  If Robert does very well on his next two dances and one of the top 4 doesn’t keep up their game, while Noah is still in the competition? It could get interesting.

Of course, it could get interesting before then. As we’ve often pointed out, people who are likely to have similar fanbases often can’t both be sustained in the competition. And we have two pairs would could be called “similar”. We have Willow and Riker – similar age group for fanbases, both less reliable than Nastia and Rumer. Then there’s Nastia and Rumer. They have fewer similarities – the main one is age group. Their fanbases are likely to be very different, Olympian versus Hollywood kid.  So, things could get interesting…but it all depends on this week’s elimination, really. If Chris or Patti go this week, and the other goes the following week – look out in week 8. Could get crazy.

Anyway, part of me expects them to start touting a “shocking elimination” and that elimination being Chris, just because he’s a few points ahead. So don’t freak out until Chris, Robert and Patti are all called safe. Then you have my permission to totally freak out. 🙂