DWTS Season 20, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers
Interesting week on DWTS. Not sure what their goal was, if there was a goal. I do wonder if Riker is killing it in votes and this is how they give him a narrative and show they were right all along. Conversely, maybe he needs help and this is their way of giving it to him. That said, I really liked his dance a lot. I don’t believe he was a whole 3 points ahead of Nastia – not at all, especially upon re-watching. Basically, every complaint that Len had about that Tango was BS…I’ve watched the dance several times and I don’t see it. I would’ve put Nastia up with Riker, Willow is good where she is as is Rumer. I guess, on re-watching, the only score that hacked me off was Nastia’s.
So, was it because she was so early in the night? That’s twice in the last three weeks that she’s gone either first or second. That’s fair, I suppose, since she had the 8th spot in week 1 and she’s had the pimp spot twice. Rumer, on the other hand, has only danced in the first few dances once and has been in the last 3 dances three times. Pretty good placing, I’d say. Riker was in the first four dances three times and had the pimp spot once. Out of the top three, I think Rumer has had the most beneficial placing, BUT, that was then, when there was a lot of low hanging fruit to be picked off. What they do going forward will be more telling. If Nastia and Derek go first or second AGAIN, then I will be pissed. Once upon a time, going first or second mattered less and less as the season has gone along, but nowadays it seems they low ball the first good couple out of the gate. Whether this is intentional or coincidence I have no idea.
Anyway, let’s take a look at how the couples did this past week.
Deceptively tight grouping on the leader board. Of course, there’s that mess with immunity that could throw a wrench into things. The Press Release reads like the high scorer from Monday night will get immunity – I have to assume from being eliminated tomorrow night. That’s fine…I find it somewhat unlikely that either Riker or Nastia are in danger, so if either of them gets it, it’s fine and dandy. What I’m not so sure of is Willow and Rumer’s standings with the voters. I’m also not sure if the “extra points” from the dance off will apply to Week 6 scores or Week 7 scores. This is extremely messy and I wonder if they planned this thinking there was going to be an actual results show on Tuesday night instead of an Anniversary special. Because if there was a results show, then they could combine week 6 scores with week 7 scores, add the three points where earned and then eliminate someone on Tuesday based on all of that. NOW, how are they going to do it?? Add the three points to the week 6 scores?? Jaysus.
IF they add the points to week 6 scores and then recalculate it to see who goes home, they could really screw something up. Why?? Because the celebs and pros have shown in the past that the strong dancers aren’t willing to take on the weak dancers. They tend to pick on other high scorers. That could create some craziness if, for example, Chris and Robert dance off and Chris wins. Oy veh. I may cry BS if that happens.
Anyway, I’m going to proceed as normally and if I’m still feeling alright by the time I get to the end, I may do a theoretical 3 point add to see what that does. All of this may be meaningless, but we’ll see. Robert is our low scorer of the week and, provided he doesn’t get three points, let’s take a look and see what he has to do to be safe.
Those are relatively small numbers. I don’t think he’s getting past Noah, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that he’s beating Chris…or even Rumer. It’s just hard to say. Did the judges know there were going to be extra points and immunity when they handed out the scores last week? Probably, but didn’t everything change AFTER Monday night?? By that, I mean that they changed the air date of the Anniversary special and the first results show? I’m asking for sure because I’ve been busy and sick and I’m not sure when that happened. Why this might be important is that the judges could have handed out scores on Monday night thinking that this was just chance number 1 to impact the outcome of the show. They might have thought there was another whole round of dancing added to the mix instead of just a potential 3 points. Interesting thought.
Anyway, I think Robert is getting past Chris, but not Noah. Rumer I’m not sure of. I think Nastia beats out Willow, but that Robert can’t get past either of them. If I’m wrong, it’s Willow that’s in trouble, not Nastia. Nastia only needs ONE point to beat Willow and I think she’s managing that. But I skip ahead. What does Noah have to do to be safe?
I think Noah is beating Chris easily and possibly Rumer and Willow too. Nastia?? Hard to say. That’s not a lot of points and I don’t have a feel for how Noah is doing with voters. If there is anyone who can take out a front runner, it’s him.
Anyway, I think Robert and Noah are both beating Chris which would make both of them safe. But what about Chris? Can he still be safe?
Wow. Very small margin between him and Rumer. That said, I have a hard time believing that he makes it. I think he is more likely to beat Willow, and that isn’t very likely. But man, with totals this low one has to wonder how much danger that Willow and Rumer are in.
Okay, the easiest way to lay this out is the old way. For Rumer to be eliminated, ALL of the following has to happen:
- Robert gets 7.1k more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Noah gets 5.4k more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Chris gets 1,800 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Rumer DOESN’T get 3,550 more votes per million votes cast than either Nastia or Willow, AND
- Rumer DOESN’T get 8,900 more votes per million votes cast than Riker.
This is fairly serious danger zone stuff here. If the men below her are doing as well as I think at least two of them are, then she could be in trouble. Will be interesting to see if she gets immunity or the 3 points. I do think that Rumer could beat Willow. What I’m not so sure of is if Robert or Chris are getting the votes to get past her. I bet Noah is.
For Willow to be eliminated, ALL of the following has to happen:
- Robert gets 10,650 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Noah gets 8,900 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Chris gets 5,300 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Rumer gets 3,600 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Willow DOESN’T get the one vote needed to beat Nastia, AND;
- Willow DOESN’T get the 5,350 votes per million votes cast to beat Riker.
Okay, so I don’t think that Willow is getting the votes to beat either Nastia or Riker, so I think those two are safe. While it’s possible that Noah could be beating her, I don’t think Robert or Chris are. So, I *think* she is safe.
I tend to think, with these scores as they are, that Robert, Noah, Chris and Rumer are the bottom four. I think that Noah beats Chris and maybe Rumer, and I don’t think that Robert gets the votes to beat him, so I think that means Noah is safe.
That leaves us with Chris, Robert and Rumer. The key in this equation is, oddly, Chris and how he’s really doing with the voters. If he just squeaked by Patti with a couple votes (remember he only needed one) and Robert was not a real bottom two, then he may be going home. But he only needs 1,800 votes per million to catch Rumer.
To cut to the chase, I think that Robert and Chris are the bottom two and that Chris goes home. That said, I would not be surprised to see any combination of Robert, Chris, Noah, Rumer and Willow in a bottom two. It’s just that close and we don’t really know how any of them are doing in votes.
This, of course, makes the immunity and the addition of three points and how they decide to do that math all important. A game changer.
Let’s pretend that they do the immunity and the dance off three points and it all counts against tomorrow night’s elimination. I think it’s quite reasonable to assume that one of Rumer, Riker or Nastia get immunity. If Willow gets it, and she’s not very obviously better than the other three, watch out in week 8. I’m going to guess that Nastia gets it because she’s dancing with a new partner and she has Charleston (that is, she won’t have her Derek handicap, even though Derek did the choreo). Riker has Quickstep and I’m not sure how well either he or Allison will do with that dance. As for Rumer, she has Jive and I have no idea how they’re going to manage a 60’s jive to a current song. At the end, either Rumer or Nastia will get it and the one who doesn’t get it is likely to win their dance off. For the sake of looking at what it does to the numbers, I’m going to say that Nastia gets it. That leaves:
Rumer
Riker
Willow
Robert
Noah
Chris
I think that Riker ends up dancing against Rumer (or Nastia) and loses. Then I think that Willow ends up dancing against Robert and wins, leaving Noah and Chris to dance off. Now that’s an interesting conundrum. Who wins?? The immunity dances aren’t going to be easy and Noah’s range is more limited (theoretically) than Chris’ is. Man, I don’t want to be the judges on this one.
But this is all theoretical and they may not end up doing it even remotely similar to this. So, for the sake of seeing the impact of three points, let’s say that Chris wins. Here’s the new leaderboard, assuming they do give Nastia the 3 points – even though they’ve only done that once. Most of the time the immunity winner gets screwed out of three points which could have the impact of changing the cumulative score leader.
So now there’s a three way tie for first place between Riker, Nastia and Willow. Rumer is two points behind in second place and Chris is in a very close 3rd place with 73 points. That leaves Robert and Noah way down at the bottom with 67 and 68 points, respectively. Oy vey. Robert essentially goes from having a real shot at safety to likely being eliminated, in this HYPOTHETICAL scenario. Sure, he doesn’t have to do much to beat Noah…but Noah’s NOAH. Everyone else is a lot further away than they were sans the three extra points.
When it comes to Chris and Noah, suddenly, it’s a lot harder to get past Chris for both Robert and Noah.
I’m not going to belabor the point, mainly because we have no idea if this is even close to what they will do. But, if it shakes out like this, I think the bottom three becomes Robert, Noah and Chris, with Robert much more likely to go home than he was before.
What do you think?
PH, last season the 3 points counted towards the following week. They didn’t recalculate for the current week. I think all immunity did was save Janel last season.
I too think Chris will be eliminated.
Thanks for doing this. I wasn’t expecting you to this week (hence why I did a massively diluted version in the comments of the power rankings post. Sorry!) Interesting to have to return to potential future scores as a benchmark rather than knowing who has what. I agree with you that it’s a jumble of a mismatch of a hotchpotch from which very few people are safe. Chris’s time should be up, but I’m very confused about who’s actually going.
Sure, Ananya, but that doesn’t mean they will do it that way this week. I mean, why call it a dance off if it doesn’t count for the current week?? The press release is just too ambiguous.
@PrincessHeidi I should probably explain that it wasn’t that I posted my numbers comment in your stead, just that before I posted it I thought “Is this going to tread on PrincessHeidi’s territory?” But I decided it was probably OK because everything is so messed up this week I didn’t think you’d be able to find anything to even speculate about. Thanks again.
In S17 (Cher Week), didn’t they count the 3 points for the current week & not the following week?
I will guess the elimination is either Robert or Chris.
Chris must get low votes last week, but I think his votes might increase a little bit this week. On the other hand, Robert had two bad weeks in a row, he might get less votes this time.
If there is a shocking elimination – I will guess it’s Willow because people might not feel she is in danger and forget to vote for her.
@Jane, that’s only because the results from season 17 were determined by the previous week’s votes and the scores from the current week.
Yes, which to be honest is the weirdest voting system I’ve ever seen.
I think Willow might be in danger, simply because I believe the fans likely to vote for her might be split between her and Riker as this is the case in my house. Although we are usually big Derek fans, both Willow and Riker caught our attention this season (I have older teenagers who know who both of them are and like them as celebrity dancers) – and we split votes in the beginning, however now we just vote for Riker.
I am really hoping that both Riker and Willow have huge voting fan bases and that both stick around until the finale.
I think Robert will have the votes to beat Chris, but I think it all hinges on this dance off and where these 3 pts will lie. I personally think it will end up counting towards the following weeks scores/eliminations. I know it’s weird but eliminations are always determined by the previous weeks scores so I think it will stay the same. The only other question is whether the immune couple also gets 3 pts as that could be an advantage/disadvantage with the double elimination.
But to be honest, there is no way the producers have thought this through properly
For the umpteenth week in a row, I have said that Chris will go home but gosh darn it I’m always WRONG!! I really hope it’s him. Give the guy want he wants and send him home!!
I also really feel that the producers of this show are making stuff up as they go along!! There’s not too much thought process going on!! It should be interesting I guess!
Thank you, Princess Heidi, for your numbers post as always and this week in particular, especially with all the variables and possible scenarios. I’ve thought either Chris or Robert would be leaving this week, but now I don’t know. Might be a week to sit back with glass of wine and watch it all unfold.
What do I think, PH? I think you’re amazing and I *know* my head’s spinning.
To TPTB: “Oh what a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive.” This is what comes from all your last minute changes. If I was trying to fix this mess, I’d keep the scoring/elimination this week as straightforward as possible. Have the elimination based on Week 6 scores/votes and add the victors’ dance-off points to their score for Week 7 so they count in Week 8’s elimination. Whether or not the immune couple gets the 3 points will depend entirely on who they are (Rumer? 3 points; Riker? Maybe; Nastia? Nope).
For the elimination, I’m going to think positively and say Chris’s time is finally up –Chris is relieved, Witney is grateful, I’m delighted–everybody wins!
I always love this post. I am guessing the extra points gets carried to the following week as that could really have an impact with a double elimination. Scores will likely be telling as well this week with an upcoming double elimination. I really hope Chris goes this week.
Thanks PH. That’s a lot of work. Too close for comfort.
I think I’m just going to DVR the show tomorrow night. FF to the end or check the board to see who is eliminated. I’ll watch the couples dance and then vote. I might watch the dance off and the rest of the show later. If Chris doesn’t go home tomorrow night…I just don’t know….
Oh, gosh! So much to take in. I truly appreciate you still doing this despite being sick, Princess H. Thank you!
With numbers and theories swirling in my head, I tried to formulate a comment that makes sense. Guess I won’t have to; Cidra #12 did it for me, LOL! Thanks, Cidra, for putting my thoughts into words, and so much better than I could possibly have. I’ll add here my hope that it’s Chris going home tomorrow.
I’ll be very interested to see the top scorers tomorrow. With the double elimination next week the margins are gonna be so important. I’m sticking to my gut feeling that Noah is gonna bump one of the better couples (probably Willow) out of the top 4 and potentially one of Rumer, Riker or Nastia from the top 3. As for tomorrow’s elim I think it’ll be Robert or Chris with the survivor going home next week. The immunity should go to either Rumer or Nastia. In the end one couple of Riker, Nastia, Rumer or Willow will end up losing their dance off, whoever that couple is will be in big trouble next week imo.
@M8 I agree with absolutely everything u said. But u never know….but def I hope chris goes home tomorrow instead of robert.
Willow could be in big trouble if she doesn’t win immunity. Her dance wasn’t very memorable and her fan base has been sketchy from the start. Both Willow and Riker have been competing for the same voting demographic, but after his last few performances, I tend to think Riker’s winning that battle which is another problem for Willow.
I think we’re all in agreement that Chris should leave next, but will he? I guessing he won over some votes with his ‘breakthrough’ and he’s got Bachelor Nation backing him so it’s possible he gets past another elimination unscathed.
Everything depends on how immunity and the extra points play out. I’ll be bold and say that if Willow doesn’t get immunity, she’ll be eliminated. If Willow does get immunity (BTW- I think she’s got the best shot at winning it), I’ll say it’s Chris who will be leaving.
I think that Noah is not going anywhere. I think he has a lot of support. But I’m really gonna be very sad to see Robert go. 🙁 I don’t care about Chris. He doesn’t want to be there anyway.
If Chris doesn’t leave this week, I will lose my faith in this show. Everyone else left apart from him puts in so much effort for the dances, specially Robert. Whereas Chris gets a higher score for clapping his hands and barely moving throughout his performance.
I heard the phone lines were pretty busy for both Willow and Nastia and they both have a pretty good fanbase, so in terms of votes I think they should make it. I doubt Noah will leave, everyone loves Noah and people vote for him like crazy. Rumer and Riker again, have a good enough fanbase. So I’d say Robert or Chris will be going
For the top four, in terms of fanbase I’d say it’s something like this – Nastia > Willow > Riker > Rumer.
@Anushka Oh, I hope you’re right. I want to see Willow do well, and while I have faith in her fan base, other people don’t seem to. For the record, I don’t mean to disparage Riker, who’s impressed me, but none of the Hunger Games fans I know have heard of R5.
I dont think Willow is doing bad with the votes. she gets a lot of support on twitter. i think she is fun to watch – hope she sticks around.
All I want is for Chris to go home tonight. Then I’ll be happy. I would hate to lose Robert, or anyone else really, over Prince Farming over there.
I’ve been worried about Willow as well, but then I have notices that she has more fans than I previously thought.. many of which are voting just for her and not Riker. Of course this doesn’t mean she’ll outlast him or anything but I’m a bit more hopeful she could potentially make the finals.
I will also add that my gut feeling says Willow might end up getting immunity tonight. Being that the Jazz is sort of like a Freestyle, I think it would just be easier for her to do as opposed to a dance that is more technical like Rumer or Nastia’s. Combine that with the fact that is a Futuristic Jazz (probably the best “era” of the night) and with Mark’s creativity? I’m expecting big things. Who knows, she might even get the perfect score… I guess I’m just hopeful 😛
I was actually thinking Rumer might get the perfect score last week, and she could have had the choreography been good.
Mr A – I know how you feel, I like watching Riker dance but even I hadn’t heard of R5 before this show. But then like he said, his band became popular only last year. Whereas THG is popular worldwide, so that has to count for something.
I hope Willow has a larger fan base than some of us think. I think a lot of her fans are international and can’t vote.
I think their futuristic jazz dance will definitely be over the top, and hopefully in a good way. The only thing I’ve seen about it is a clip of Willow doing a flip high in the air while strapped to a harness. It did look pretty cool in slow motion. And, I’ve seen the term ninja as in Ninjazz thrown around. Who doesn’t like Ninjas. LOL
Any idea of the order yet. I feel for who has to go first.
M8, it’s practically a certainty that one of Riker, Nastia, Rumor or Willow will end up losing their dance offs because of how the tend to pick their competition. But, IMO, you don’t know if they’ll be in “big trouble” until you see the rest of the scores. Willow is most at risk, I think. It will certainly be interesting.
The problem with twitter support, Cecilia, is that it often doesn’t translate to votes. See Bethany Mota. Or Cody Simpson. Or any of another half dozen young celebs. Riker’s apparently skews a bit older (late teens/early twenties) so he might have the edge. And he has the edge in scoring as well.
Excellent post as always. I’m with you with your bottom three. it wouldn’t surprise me to see either Robert or Chris eliminated tonight. I hope it’s not Chris. I’m enjoying his journey more.
@Dee2 Being that the dances range from the 1920’s to the Future, I hope TPTB were smart to do the dance order accordingly — so starting with Riker’s Quickstep and ending with Willow’s Jazz. I just feel like it would be pretty weird to go from an 80’s dance, to a futuristic one and then back to the 60’s. My OCD-self would not like that at all.
CC NY Good point about the order. I’m a bit OCD as well.
Wow…the immunity challenge makes this week a big ole mess. And of course DWTS makes up the rules as they go so they can direct the results in the way they want.
I do think Rumer could have been in danger this week but I think the immunity challenge and the combination of Chris and Robert will save her. I just have this feeling she’ll have the highest score (maybe even a perfect score) and will therefore end up with immunity and probably 3 extra points. I just don’t think they can risk her having two bad weeks in a row. It’s hard to say if their agenda has changed or if last week was just a fluke. The jazz was so obviously bad there is no way the judges could get around it. I also just have this feeling the producers want to snag Mama Demi eventually so they want to make sure her daughter does well.
Willow is a massive question mark to me. She really faded into the background last week BUT her routine has a lot of potential tonight. I think Riker’s popularity/votes very much depends on how he does on a given night. He’s had two strong weeks in a row but I don’t have high hopes for his QS. At this point he may have gained enough goodwill though. I’ll be worried about him next week with a double elimination.
I’ve basically talked around who I think will be eliminated though…I had faith in Robert last week but this week…well I just think Chris had a stronger dance and his package was much better than the week before. Therefore I think Robert is eliminated this week.
I have yet to get one right, but I believe Chris will outlast Robert so I’d have to say Robert will be tonight’s elimination. I like him a lot, but the showmance is starting to be over the top IMO so even though I find it painful to watch Chris dance, I wouldn’t care too much either way. The real drama will begin next week when we get down to the nitty gritty with Noah and his fan base. His story is incredible and it’s impossible not to admire and support him, but at this point I feel like it has less and less to do with the DWTS journey as there is no progression. I actually enjoyed their week 1 dance the most. Last couple of dances he seemed frustrated, maybe not to the same extent as Chris, but I’m definitely noticing the tension. I sense that he wouldn’t mind making an exit now before the game becomes even more grueling.
I think the fan bases of pros are also important factors. Some pros actually have more fans than those stars. Witney is one of the most popular female pros and have lots fans. Chris might be benefit from her votes.
And as for the top 4, Rumer might have smallest fan base, but I think the general audience love her and her parents. I am not worried for Nastia but I am worried for Riker since Allison doesn’t build her fan base yet. I hope he and Allison can make it to final, love their dance.
I think it’s either Robert or Chris leaving tonight. I am enjoying Robert much more than I initially had thought I would. And gazing at the lovely Kym ain’t too shabby either.
To me, Riker has been one of the biggest surprises this season. I find him very sweet and hard working.. there is actually something childlike and innnocent about him. So it wouldn’t surprise me if Riker has won over some new fans this season. For me, the biggest turning point was his Jack Sparrow Paso Doble. Wow, that was my favorite dance of the season so far.
International fans can vote through Facebook, and maybe ABC.com. I tried making an account there but it wasn’t accepting, either a network connection problem or the fact that I’m not from US.
And yes, fan bases of the pros definitely matter. Derek, Mark and Val are bound to have huge fan bases. Witney will probably have a bigger fan base than Allison. Some of Sadie’s fans will vote for Willow, Janel’s fans for Rumer and so on.
And I agree with the showmance. TPTB is blowing it WAY out of proportion, for example, Erin asking them to make out if the got a good score. All in all, last week definitely wasn’t the best.
Please let Christ be eliminated tonight. He doesn’t want to be there, Witney seems to have checked out and to me it’s very obvious. Just go home. I’m enjoying Robert, but I would rather see him leave over Noah or Willow.
@Anushka – I agree that pro fan bases can be a big factor. I think Derek is the only pro whose fan base has potential to actually carry a celeb very far if they don’t come in with their own fan base. I do think most of Rumer’s votes right now are probably from Val/fam fans but I guarantee Janel fans are not voting. There is a massive war going on via twitter between Janel and Val/Rumer fans. Since there was all that drama post season with Janel/Val and now Janel/Rumer I don’t think Val can count on their votes.
PH thanks so much for your amazing stat report and I hope you’re feeling better!
There are some hardcore M&M fans on Tumblr and it seems that most of them have transferred their fervor to Robert and Kym. That couple is being shipped hard and it seems that they are supporting them more than Val and Rumer. I know he’s not the best dancer, but Noah gets my votes….
If those shippers are voting as they did for Meryl and Maks than will certainly effect the outcome.
I think Robert is in the most trouble tonight, just based on two rough weeks and the judges doing him no favors, while they lavished Chris with overscoring, overpraising, and by all accounts a much more favorable package than he probably deserved. I do HOPE it’s Chris going home tonight, but I’m leaning a little more towards Robert – but he’d be my next to go wish anyway, so I suppose I’d just have to put up with Chris stomping while Witney dances around him for another week.
Good point, Fig. Whether it’s Robert or Chris getting the boot this week, I can’t see the survivor making it through next week’s double-elim. So if we’re stuck with Chris, he should only be clomping around for one more week. The only thing that could throw a wrench in that scenario is if Clod-hopper Chris gets overscored yet again and wins his dance-off. That would be dire!
Hope you’re feeling better PH! Thanks for taking the time to write so thoroughly while sick!
I want it to be Chris as I thing C’s nickname of Clydesdale is apt. I think it may well be Robert for the reasons Fig lists.
I think they won’t let Rumer go no matter what, she’s in for the finals. Despite her pro, she’s pretty likable, and with her background/natural ability, and what she’s learned from her pro, she’s usually an easy enough dancer to watch. AND if there’s any chance they can have papa in the audience for finals they are certainly going to want that. I don’t think they’ll just give her the win tho, even if they want Val to have one. I think they will stack the deck a bit but won’t just give it to them.
#DLT, I don’t think Val and Rumer can count on Zendaya’s fanbase either. Many of the fans of that couple are voting for Riker, Robert or Noah. He doesn’t have a solid fanbase of his own as it seems linked to former partners, imo. That being said, I wonder just how far tptb will pimp her to keep her in til the end. She must have a great public relations team working for her because she is getting a lot of visibility via the media. Tonight will perhaps reveal the producers hand.
The only caveat to my thinking that Robert is in slightly greater danger than Chris is that although Robert has been raked over the coals a bit by the judges, TPTB have been giving them very positive packages, too, and pushing the showmance angle. I have learned never to underestimate the power of the shipper, but I wonder if the general audience lost some of their own romance with Robert and Kym – just enough to eliminate him. Guess we’ll see tonight!
Love the breakdown PH. Lastt week when I heard about the double elimination, I thought for sure Rumer or Willow would be one of them (Prob Rumer). The main reason was that the finals have been predominantly female celebs the last few yrs, and I couldn’t believe they would allow both eliminations in one night to be male celeb. But if there is only one elimination tonight, I really hope it is Chris. But part of me wonders if they announced how close Chris/Patti were in votes, so that when Chris stayed his fans would start voting more. Personally, I hope not.
Hmm, Tom’s tweets are always interesting: “Will we have a surprising elimination or will winning immunity provide a reprieve?”
Whenever he says something like this, it makes me completely rethink what I’ve assumed. I just hope that Willow is okay, as I do think she had one of those “fade into the woodwork” dances, even though it was cute and totally solid. I think Nastia and Riker are good, with Rumer & Willow I think are the most likely “surprise” eliminations just based on last week.
If I had my way, I’d have Chris>Robert>Noah eliminations in that order, with a final four of Nastia, Riker, Willow, and Rumer. We’ll see if my wish comes true.
I think nastia will either get immunity or the extra points…and if there is a surprising elimination it might be willow…i like her but I think she got lost in the mix last week. Also, when they sometimes say “surprising” and then they label redfoo being eliminated surprising…well no it wasnt…so if its robert or chris I won’t be surprised. But, yes if riker or willow get eliminated I guess you can consider that shocking..although both have been in “jeopardy” before.
Why are we having a double elimination
There is no double elimination tonight.
Tom has called “suprising elimination” when they really weren’t that surprising at all. At least, not to me. 🙂
If I was Tom/DWTS I would have kept that info quiet. It will just put more light on who ends up getting immunity and if it seems like DWTS “fixed” anything. Almost wonder if they’ll put the top 4 in jeopardy to add drama to it.
I personally think Willow is the one most in danger. Her routine got lost in the mix and all season I’ve questioned who is voting for her. I think people are at the point we they aren’t spreading their votes around anymore.
I think they want 2 couples in the finals. I noticed the finals is only 1 hours long, and I can’t see them fitting in 8 dances in 1 hour.
I meant 3 couples
Meryl and Maks didn’t get the trophy on shippers alone. That was a perfect storm (pro never won, showmance, fresh Olympic champ, great judges scores, massive pimping) that is not being replicated by anyone this season. I prefer to believe that psycho shippers are a minority. And I love Robert and am not a shipper. I”m sure I’m not the only one.
You don’t really thing that Tom just randomly tweets DWTS info without permission and approval, do you, DLT?? Hell, they probably stand over him and check his spelling before he lets one fly. 😀 There ain’t no way that he’s randomly spilling stuff on his own.
You also assume the average person on twitter recognizes the machinations of TPTB – they don’t. Many of them believe everything, including that the Bachelor is real and that Mark and Derek bought a love nest together (as opposed to a house to flip).
Ananya, the finale is always only an hour.
Yeah, I loved Meryl but was definitely not a shipper. I would have rather seen her in a “fair” season, which I think she’d still have done very well in, and with anyone who was not Maks, even Val.
PH, not the finale, the finals on Monday night. I remember reading it .
I loved Meryl too and I don’t ship. I also love Amy so I would have been happy either way. What pisses me off is the attempt of TPTB to try to use Vucan mind games with me. In fact it makes me want to do the exact opposite.
Erin has made a few wired comments about Kym and Robert that make my eyes want to roll out of my head! Seriously the guy just got separated last summer Erin!
@Ananya Are you sure? That sounds like a very short final. Even the British version, with 3 couples, no commercials and less “messing about” is usually about 3.
I’ll try to find the abc release where I read it. I remember being very surprised.
This was out on Wet Paint……Here’s ABC’s schedule for DWTS:
• Monday, April 20: Spring Break Week 6 (8 to 10:01 p.m.)
• Monday, April 27: Eras Night Week 7 (8 to 10:01 p.m.)
• Tuesday, April 28: Results Show the DWTS 10th Anniversary Special was moved to this night! (8 to 9 p.m.)
• Monday, May 4: America’s Choice Week 8 (8 to 10:01 p.m.)
• Tuesday, May 5: Results Show with Double Elimination (8 to 9 p.m.)
• Monday, May 11: Semifinals Week 9 (8 to 10:01 p.m.)
• Tuesday, May 12: Results Show (8 to 9 p.m.)
• Monday, May 18: Finals Week 10 (8 to 9:01 p.m.) *note one-hour time
• Tuesday, May 19: Finale Results (9 to 11 p.m.) *note later time
The Bachelorette will premiere on May 18, right after that one-hour DWTS show.
I think the final performance night was almost always an hour until they started doing four couple finales. Then, season 18 was an hour and a half, with the finale results being two hours. I believe the finale has always been two hours.
Really, it will depend on ABC and their lineup.
Don’t quote that other site here. This is where they get most of their stories.
I don’t mean that shippers are going to make Robert the winner – not by any stretch. I do think that shippers aren’t just the fanatics, but the kind that are even a little swept away by “the connection” that Kym and Robert supposedly have and might be enough to help him past Chris – not to mention those that just like Robert and Kym, romantic suggestions aside. Again this is about Robert versus Chris, not Robert versus Riker/Nastia or any of the other frontrunners.
Forgetting the schedule for the finals night, just the basic math implies there will only be three couples if the double elimination stands next week:
Monday, April 27: 1 couple eliminated; 6 remain
Monday, May 4: 2 couples eliminated; 4 remain
Monday, May 11: 1 couple eliminated; 3 remain
Monday, May 18: Finals – 3 couples perform
Now it’s possible they’ll scrap the double elimination next week or not eliminate someone the week of May 11 (though I don’t see the point in that).
I’m having a very bad feeling about Willow getting eliminated tonight 🙁
Tom’s tweet about the ”surprising elimination” is really making me nervous about Willow. I hope she’s safe.
I think Willow will be fine as she is one of the best dancers imo. I think it’s between Robert and Chris. maybe it’s Robert that is the “surprise elimination”?
Honestly the shocking elimination could be either Robert or Noah. Robert because even though he’s at the bottom, he’s very likeable and has a lot of potential. Noah we all know why he’s gonna be shocking. He’s an inspiration.
I agree Tina…it could be Noah too.
Would Willow be considered a surprising elimination? Surprising to me would be if Nastia/Rumor/possibly Riker/Noah went home.
When I hear shocking elim and immunity together, I automatically think of Rumer.
If TPTB really want her in the finals, and she is the low person on the totem pole, I can totally see her “winning” immunity.
Fig I agree. I am not a shipper, but I love Kym and Robert and split my votes to give them some the last 2 weeks.
PH#55 You’re killing me. Laughing so hard We talked DWTS at lunch today. And the question came up about shippers and votes and how, other than what I share, they have no idea what is going on behind the scenes! The SANE people in my office agreed that rabid shippers vote, but the average viewer has no idea what a shipper is, nor do they care. This would include peeps like my mom and her card group who drop their cards to mass vote for that “cute little Derek.” This year it’s 1/2 for Derek and 1/2 Robert, because he reminds them of the young men I danced with in my youth. Ahhh….
I think Willow (or Riker) winning immunity could lead to an interesting turn of events because that would mean Rumer & Nastia would have to face off against one another in the dance-off, since it’s usually the best 2 dancers. I think this scenario would be very interesting to watch because I think they are they 2 best (technical) dancers in the competition.
But who would win? I think Rumer has the advantage since she’s danced all 3 styles before (Cha-Cha, Salsa, Foxtrot) & Nastia has only danced 1 (Foxtrot). But then again, Nastia is a former Olympian who is used to competing under pressure so she would have an advantage over Rumer in that way (meaning she’s least likely to headcase).
In my guess, I think Rumer would win since she’s “the chosen one” & TPTB don’t want the general DWTS audience to view her in a negative light (they want them to think she’s the best dancer). But Nastia is more precise (IMO) & rarely makes mistakes that I think it could be possible she could win against Rumer. And if Rumer loses, would her chances of winning the MBT go down?
In my opinion, I think TPTB don’t want to risk that kind of scenario to happen. Since their pimping of Rumer & Val is so obvious, I think they will do whatever they can to make sure either Rumer or Nastia wins immunity so that neither of them goes up against each other in the dance-off. But I’m hoping this happens because I think it would be so fun to see what happens, especially if the judging goes against Rumer’s favor.
PJ, you could have something there!! I can see that happening too.
Robert wouldn’t be a surprise because he’s on the bottom of the leaderboard. The way Tom tweets (aka how the producers think the audience thinks) usually means anyone other than Robert is a “surprise”.
I’ll never trust Tom on surprising eliminations ever again after all that tongue swallowing he did the night Sherri Shepherd was eliminated! (as if that was a big surprise!). Knowing him he probably thinks The Bachelor going home is a surprise.
That said, I think it might be Willow. Those vote margins are very SMALL. I can see all 3 of Chris, Robert, and especially Noah passing her. Her dance last week was very forgettable. They put her in jeopardy once before. And not sure her fan base is that big with the show. Alot of the fans had a problem with a 14 year old being on the show to begin with.
I think it’s between Willow and Chris. After seeing Heidi’s vote totals, I am really thinking it’s Willow. And that would be a surprise.
Agreed, PH – and that’s why I’m hoping it’s Chris. Even though I don’t care for Robert, I adore Kym and I’d take them dancing another week rather than Chris’s miserable face as Witney dances around him.
I’m curious about running order tonight too – if they’ll set it up according to how they want to award immunity, or if they’ll go for the big story at the end with Nastia and Sasha.
That’s true, Miss. My brain is not working right today. lol
Losing the dance off doesn’t affect ones chances of winning, but it could affect someone staying past tonight, depending on who’s dancing. I expect that if Nastia and Riker are doing well in votes, neither will win immunity and it will go to someone more at risk.
Of course, all four of the top could already be safe and not need immunity so it will go to whoever. It’s hard to know until the season is over.
So many competing needs for TPTB, Fig!! Do they play the big drama of Derek getting hurt, yet stepping in and choreographing?? Or do they put her close to the beginning so she’s less likely to get immunity and the big DRAMA will be Willow getting immunity, meaning Nastia and Rumer duke it out, Nastia with a new partner?? What to do, what to do?? 😀 My guess is that Derek’s injury has changed their narrative a bit – it’s been all over the media for a week now and it might now take precedence over getting Rumer to the end. LOL. Of course, Katherine Jenkins posted video of Derek actually kicking the light to break his toe (really bad) and the video was yanked rather quickly. I suspect they’re asking Katherine for the footage. I suspect that also means that Nastia goes towards the end with the big reveal. So, which is bigger – the need to have Bruce at the Finale or Derek Drama? Or will they find a way to have both?? 😀
My guess is if anyone of the top 4 dancers talent-wise are in danger it would be Willow, just because I feel like she’s been protected via scores and promoted to the audience most this season. Wouldn’t surprise me if she gets immunity (as a save by TPTB).
I daresay Derek’s injury made way bigger news than anything Rumer – even with Bruce and Demi – has done or has the potential to do.
Although I do think it’s slightly possible that Rumer is at risk for elimination, she’s probably safe over Chris and Robert – so if the top four are safe then they’ll just settle to build up for the Derek drama.
I did see Katherine’s video – and how quickly it was taken down. I wondered if it was for liability purposes, or to unveil tonight on the show.
Honestly I don’t REALLY care if someone gets immunity and they deserve it – even if it’s Rumer – but if it’s obvious that they overlook mistakes or a weaker dance, or overscore/underscore – then I’ll be a little pissy. I’d feel the same if the ones I like more were awarded it.
So it sounds like there are no more points to be added before elimination? In that case, with a margin of 1.6-1.8% of the total points awarded between first place Riker and last place Robert, whoever gets the least votes pretty much goes. Riker and even Nastia would still be a possible shock elimination. It would be far from the first time the person top of the leaderboard went home, and it’s happened with far wider margins. If Willow might be in danger because she’s been in jeopardy once, Riker’s been in jeopardy twice. I want to believe it’s Chris, his time is beyond done, but the whole thing makes me uneasy, and not just for Willow.
That video of Derek is on IG I just checked so it’s still floating around……
My point was that it’s no longer on Katherine’s account.
Agreed Fig. If they really deserve it…and they don’t get a pass for something that someone else got ripped for…then I would be too.
But what are the odds of that actually happening?? 🙂 I mean every week someone gets praised where they previously docked points for a dance with a similar move.
Where did you get that idea, Mr. A?
If they were consistent in anything (vain hope, I know) there’d be an elimination without tonight’s scores, then tonight’s points would factor into the next elimination. But I have no idea when anyone’s getting eliminated any more, I’m half expecting to be eliminated myself, or at least be told I’m in jeopardy, so it’s just a thought.
PH I just checked out Katherine’s IG and its still there.
Not “still” Jill – she apparently re-posted it, since it only went up 17 minutes ago.
Makes me wonder if she realized she should ask Derek before she posted it the first time. Or she told the producers to take a hike. 🙂
I like that idea. Katherine is a very sweet girl, but she’s fierce. Girl gets what she wants.
The plot thickens…..,
I’ll be surprised if Derek/Sasha and Nastia are not the last to perform. Nothing to do with the immunity but because it’s the biggest drama of the series so far.
I don’t see Nastia as bulletproof from elimination though. If she gets scored as bad as she has been all series e.g 9s across the board with an 8 from Len/Julianne and then goes on to lose her dance off against say Rumer/Riker for example. If that scenario came to play coupled with Noah having a good week and a winning dance off, I’d put her in danger of elimination next week as well. She’s in just as much trouble as Rumer, Riker & Willow should she have a bad night scores wise. I don’t think she will though as Charleston is normally a high scoring dance if performed correctly. Still fancy her or Rumer to grab the immunity with Willow an outside shot.
I just feel like Noah is a juggernaut and it’s going to take a lot more than what some people may think to get rid of him. Right now I’ll just stick to my gut, that one of Chris and Robert will go tonight but someone very good is going home next week and we’ll have a much better idea who that might be when we see the scores added up from tonight.
Ugh! I love Tom to bits, but I wish he wasn’t such a loyal “compay man” who takes to Twitter at the behest of TPTB. I really didn’t need his tweet messing up my zen. All this speculation is making my head hurt.
For me a legitimate surprise elimination would be one of the top four or Noah. Of those, Willow definitely strikes me as most at risk. Losing her instead of “Prince Farming of Clydesdale” would be a truly bitter pill to swallow. Based on the way she’s been dancing, I’d like to see her at least make the semi-finals.
Robert leaving would be disappointing but hardly a surprise, and Chris’s exit would be a cause for celebration on my part.
Yeah, putting Nastia in danger seems like something they might do just for shits and giggles. 🙂 Of course, they’re just as likely to call her safe first just to be nice.
Yes, I do think they are schizophrenic. 🙂
Oh, and the official DWTS twitter is now going with “Will Derek be able to perform tonight?” Note they don’t use the word “dance” but “perform”. Heh. So clever. Not.
Interesting numbers, and with the show tonight rolling out as it’s been, what if Chris gets the two points in lieu of Rumer. Does that put Rumer into a bad spot? If they add these two points to tonight’s scores and last week’s scores, could Rumer be that shock elimination? Hmm… Just some random thoughts don’t take it with a grain of salt.
Spontaneous girl’s night during DWTS. Wine, food, and WHINE when Willow was eliminated. Most were betting on Chris or Noah leaving. I am amazed at the diverse group of ladies I know who are voting for Robert using every possible phone line, FB and ABC. Very odd.
Adored Derek’s dance for Sasha & Nastia. Great concept. Great dance. Love how he integrated himself into the vignette.
Noah, I’m sorry, but he’s not dancing. He’s my hero and a young man to admire. I hope he springboards from DWTS into other venues for himself and other wounded warriors. And I agree, “HI AMY” good to see you girl. Like the car commercial voice-over she’s doing now.