DWTS Season 21, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

As you know, I’m technically vaycay, but I thought I would step in and do the numbers for week 1…quickly. You may be on your own for week 2. We’ll see.

All in all, a great week. No clear cut winner…not even sure that Nick totally has it in the bag anymore. Jury is out. But we’re a long way from the finale. ๐Ÿ™‚ My top dancers are Bindi, Nick, Carlos, Alexa. Loved Alek, but I’ll be shocked if he pulls out another good dance. Loved Victor – so cute. Actually, there was no one I didn’t like except Kim…and that was one bad dance. I don’t see how she pulls it out this week, frankly. Here are the scores and their percentages:

table 1

It should be clear that nearly everyone is safe on Monday night. Kim, Chaka, Victor, Paula and Gary are all down there at the bottom and at least 32k votes away from Hayes and Andy – and neither them should be in danger based on that buffer zone. As you can see below.

table 2

I personally would be shocked if either Paula or Gary go home, just based on personality. I also think (hope??) that Victor will be safe. I think it’s going to come down to Kim and Chaka. What it boils down to is this:
– Kim needs 4,000 more votes per million votes cast than Chaka, OR;
– Kim needs 12,000 more votes per million votes cast that ONE OF Gary, Paula or Victor.

Do you think she can do it? I sure don’t. I think Kim goes. If not Kim, well, Chaka needs:
– Chaka needs 8,000 more votes per million votes cast to beat either Gary, Paula or Victor.

She might beat Victor, but I don’t think Kim beats Victor OR Chaka…therefore, I think Kim goes home.

How’s that for not belaboring the point? ๐Ÿ™‚ Don’t worry, I’ll get way more long winded once vacation is over. ๐Ÿ™‚