DWTS Season 21, Week FIVE – Dancing by the Numbers
I saw some concern this week on the blog about Alek and I want to reiterate right away – I’m not worried about Alek. At all. If he were to go home this week it would be the most shocked I’ve ever been in the history of doing the numbers for this show. Don’t know if that helps anyone or not, but there you have it. He may not be the best dancer, but he has a ton of stuff going for him. These things should be obvious, but let me spell it out for you:
- He’s a hero in the military in the mold of JR and Noah – who finished 1st and 3rd, respectively.
- He’s had a run of crap luck (UCC and Spencer) and people love to support someone like that, who has held up well in spite of said crap.
- The SHOWMANCE. Come on. You watched Meryl and Maks, right? You don’t think it was just dancing that got them the title do you? It was the fauxmance. Alek has it even better because this showmance is a realmance. 🙂 They ain’t playing, like Meryl and Maks clearly were.
I could probably think of more stuff, but that more than sums it up, doesn’t it?
Now look at these scores and realize that he may be second from the bottom but there’s a lot of space between him and Paula.
Now, there aren’t a lot of votes between Paula and Alek, relatively speaking – people have certainly overcome worse. But I’m pretty sure that if it’s NOT Paula, it won’t be Alek. It is a very tough call on who it would be other than her. I don’t have a good idea for how she’s doing on votes. Let’s take a look at what she needs in order to be safe. She has to beat ONE of the voting amounts on the right side of the table below.
It’s tables like this one that make me wonder how much the judges look at the numbers in advance (or how much they review the scores) and how much they know about how the couples are doing in terms of votes. Do YOU really believe that it’s a coincidence that the people I think MOST likely to be getting lots of votes (besides the top 2 of Bindi and Nick) are all clustered at the bottom with Alek and Paula, while those who are most likely to be in danger (Alexa, Carlos and Andy) are all closer to the top??
It could be a coincidence, in large part. After all, Alexa’s dance with Derek really DID kick ass, and Carlos and Andy did a decent job as well. Both better than in recent weeks. And I guess that Tamar and Hayes didn’t have THAT good of a night. Hmmm…well, I guess it’s plausible.
Anyway, Paula needs a good 16.8k more votes per million votes cast than Alek and more than 22k to get past Tamar. I don’t really believe she’s managing either of those. If Paula is going to beat anyone, I still think it’s Andy, unfortunately. If she were, by some miracle, passing Alek then I think Alek is still safe.
See how few votes he needs to beat either Tamar or Hayes? I think he beats both of them quite handily, and Andy as well. How do the rest of them shake out and how likely are they to be safe?
So, Paula needs the most votes in order to beat someone and be safe on Monday night. Now, since I think Alek is easily beating Tamar (5.6k votes) and Hayes (7.5k votes) and possibly even Andy (11.2k votes) that means if it’s not Paula, it’s more likely to be one of them.
Now, Tamar may not be beating Hayes, but I’m willing to bet that she’s beating Andy (5.6k votes) and possibly even Alexa (9.4k votes), so she’s likely to be safe.
If Bindi, Nick, Tamar and Alek are all safe, and Hayes is beating Andy (3.8k votes), that leaves Paula, Andy, Alexa and Carlos in the danger zone. I think Alexa will survive due to the Derek effect and because she’s probably doing better than Andy AND because it’s very unlikely that Paula is getting nearly 32k more votes per million votes cast than her. The same likely can be said for Carlos. Paula would have to get more than 37k votes per million votes cast than him for him to be in jeopardy.
That leaves us with Andy and Paula. Since I think that Alek, Tamar and Hayes are all getting the votes they need to pass him, that means Andy has to hope that Paula isn’t getting 28k more votes per million votes cast than him.
I don’t think she is. I think Paula will be exiting on Monday night. And if, by some chance, she’s called safe? Then it will be Andy.
What do you all think?
I couldn’t agree more, Heidi. Alek will be safe. I also think he will go all the way to the finals. We will see.
As for who is going home….sadly, Paula. I loved her and Mark last week, but, technically, she’s the weakest.
Great numbers post again!!
I always love your Numbers posts, Heidi and this is no exception. I agree with you 100%.
I always love reading these post PH!
While I really enjoyed Paula with Mark and I think that Paula has a good following – I have to agree that she is most likely going home. Honestly, I think Louis has done her wrong! I think poor Tamar suffered under Louis’ wishing he were back on the show! Good grief…he put her out there like she was supposed to be a Samba Beyonce Queen!
I will hate to see the fun that is Paula gone…but she hasn’t made great strides and we are at that place in the contest where “progress” matters.
I do think Paula leaves this next week, but I will say that I think if it’s a shock elimination, I fear it would be Hayes – just like I feared for Willow last year (and was right to fear that week) for a few reasons:
– Arguably the most forgettable dance last week;good but lost in the shuffle
– Likable, but not necessarily enough people’s number one
– High enough scores that it gives a false sense of security
– Bad running order
– young fanbase that we know is very unreliable
– Paula is in the demo/large fanbase, and had her best and most memorable dance last week
What I think could save Hayes is that he did have one of the stronger dances the week before, a lot of moms love him, and so do their daughters – so I’m hoping he got enough votes last week to counter what may have been a low-vote getting night this week
This is all conjecture, and I think if Hayes survives this week – which he probably will, despite my misgivings above – he will have a good shot at lasting a few weeks more and even into the semis (depending on how they arrange eliminations).
Oh, and wanted to add that I think Tamar is also at risk a bit – more than Andy this week. Wobbly dancing and a bad partner connection – but again I think she does have enough of a fanbase (and Val’s – which is decent-sized) to survive. But I also know there’s a lot of Val fans that do not like her, so maybe the attitude – which I actually love – will bite her in the butt.
So I think in likelihood of elimination, for me it’s Paula>Hayes>Tamar. I do hope it’s Paula.
I adore the numbers post PH! Thanks for doing this work week after week! I agree that I do expect Paula to be the next out. (Even though I remember well the Cloris, Tommy Chong, Bill Engvall effect.) And boy do I want Alek to last!
I loved Mark & Paula’s number this last week and hope Louis comes up with something good for her bow out to Vogue but it’s time for her to exit.
I agree with Fig regarding Hayes. I don’t think he’s getting as many votes as people seem to think. Yes he’s a nice kid, but I’m willing to bet that the main demographic who see him that way and enjoy watching him also enjoy watching Alek or Bindi and are throwing all their votes at those two, leaving Hayes out in the cold. Really it all depends on whether his tween army are power voting or not. If they’ve cooled off like other’s before him (Cody, Willow, Sabrina etc) then I think he’s in big trouble if Paula is beating him on votes.
I really hope Paula goes though, she’s the weakest by far, I’m not a fan of her or Louis and I want to see some really good team dances next week without her wearing one team down. If Paula does go then I think Andy is toast next week with Allison and probable bad scores to come this Monday.
Thanks, peeps. 🙂
Young fan bases are very unreliable…but many/most of them get to at least week 7 or 8. If Hayes makes it past this week, look for him to stick one or two more (maybe more) because he’s a better dancer than some of the other younguns PLUS I think he’s doing better than Alexa or Carlos. Now, thanks to Derek, Alexa may have bought a couple weeks.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Hayes were to go before Alexa or Carlos…but I don’t think he’s going before Andy or Paula.
I totally agree that he’s going to stick around if he’s safe this week, I just think if he is going to be eliminated early, or there’s a shock elim, this would be the time for it to happen to him because of all the other factors. Same goes for Tamar for her own particular reasons, and yeah Andy for the reasons you list, PH.
I do still think Paula is gone. That’s a pretty hefty amount of votes.
?REALMANCE !!
Per usual, Princess H, a brilliant numbers post. And per usual, have to read twice to fully appreciate it, LOL!
I have to agree, Paula’s going home next week despite her very fun number with Mark Monday night.
#Figmentation, hope that Hayes is not another Willow. I would definitely want him to stay over Paula.
I may be the odd one out here, but I just don’t see Alek and Emma as being into each other for real. Showmance yes, but realmance? I’m getting the “great friends” vibe. When Erin interviewed them, yes, Emma said she’d go on a date, but she couldn’t exactly say she wouldn’t. And then Alek said something like “that didn’t sound very confident.” He’s right, it didn’t! In all the interviews after the show, she seemed to be missing the “spark” she usually has. Her words didn’t match her body language. She didn’t seem enthused in usual Emma form, though I’m well aware she may have been a bit upset about the scores. But after that she didn’t post a single photo of their dance together, and she usually always posts dance photos. All of the shipping may have made her uncomfortable so she chose not to touch it. I think she wanted to dance with him because he’s got so much potential and as a dancer, that’s exciting to work with. Also as she said, she never got to do a rumba before and she always wanted that opportunity. He gave her that. They seem very friendly and definitely have chemistry, but that doesn’t always equal romance. There’s different kinds of chemistry. Friends need chemistry too, as do dance partners. I never thought Maks and Meryl were into each other either. Just great friends who adore each other, and that’s a beautiful thing.
I’m not going to weigh in on the real-ness or whatever of Alek and Emma but I do think there’s a distinct difference between them and Maks/Meryl – they aren’t partners (I know adoy). But by that I mean I don’t think their romance/showmance keeps Alek around any longer than the normal contestant. The audience isn’t going to be around to watch whatever is going (or not going on) between them and give them a reason to vote. Additionally, the narrative of Meryl “opening” up and “taming the beast” Maks was something the general audience really ate up. So I just don’t see Alek and Emma translating into a ton of general audience votes.
That being said, I do think the general audience loves him and he’ll likely go quite far – and he didn’t need a showmance/romance to do it. That stuff is just gravy.
@Darleen. Hayes seems to have some crazy fans, so maybe Emma was pulling back to minimize future attacks by them. However, she did put her head on Alek’s shoulder in a very affectionate way after the dance when Tom was talking about Alek’s broken nose.
If I broke the nose of anyone, especially someone I was friends with and happened to be a national hero, I’d probably act exactly like Emma did. Erin Andrews saying you should go on a date does not equal a real relationship. Editing hours and hours of footage to only show where Alek talked about Emma’s sexiness right before they were doing a very sexy dance does not equal a real relationship. Plus, as @Figamentation said, there is not much benefit of a showmance between two people who are not partners anymore.
Paula does have a lot of ground to cover, but I Could see her pulling out another week to two due to a big fan base.
I wouldn’t be surprised by a Tamar “shocking” elimination.
It will certainly get them “some” votes – but I don’t think anyone is claiming it will be the bulk of the reason he’s been kept around (unlike Maks and Meryl). I listed two other seasons for him being safe before that one.
As for whether it’s real or not – I’m as flummoxed by those anxious to discount it as I am the shippers themselves. You all confuse me, by being invested one way or another in a relationship or lack thereof. We’re not going, by the way, just by what we see on screen, but by behind the scenes reports. So those of you anxiously denying that they’re really interested in each other best relax, cuz as of last week you’re already wrong. 😀 Geez, because she’s not licking his face on camera she’s not interested?? I wouldn’t judge someone’s desire for a date (or not) by what they do on screen. Not everyone is going to lay it all out there or fake it (Val, lookin’ at you) for votes. Some people actually do their best to keep their private life private.
Paula is very popular and likeable, I remember all the years she was on QVC with her cookbooks and hams. I can really see her staying for another week or two. I like Tamar and I think she is a good dancer, but even though I have been giving her votes every week, she may not be connecting with many of the audience because she seems a little aloof. I agree that she may be the shocking elimination, but I hope not.
I don’t think Tamar will be cut, but I agree she isn’t really into the performance aspect. She’s a fine dancer though and together with Val’s fan base seems to have considerable support, not to mention the judges’ support.
I’m not a fan of what tptb are doing with Alek with the showmance, but I do think it is increasing his vote count as it has increased interest from the shipping part of the viewing audience, which as we know is substantial. I’m not sure yet that I support a place in the finals though. A lot remains to be seen because in the end he’s a so-so performer, no comparison to JR or Noah in my opinion, for different reasons.
The biggest surprise for me has been Nick who I loved in the beginning, but have all but forgotten week to week. I think he has realized this gig is much more difficult than anticipated. At first I thought perhaps Sharna wasn’t the best fit, but after the disaster with Wit I don’t think the pro is the issue. I still think he will be standing at or near the end thanks to his following though.
This week I think Paula will likely squeeze through again and Andy will leave which would make me sad because he is in my top three along with Bindi and Alexa.
I’m not so sure about Val’s fanbase. I don’t think it’s any bigger than Marks. If it were all that, he would have a larger social media presence. He certainly does have the producers and the judges behind him though.
I recently rewatched Andy and Sharna’s dance and it was amazing. I do wonder if, like Alexa, he’ll get another week on the strength of that dance. We’ll see. 🙂