DWTS Season 21, Week EIGHT – Dancing by the Numbers

What a week. I don’t even know where to start with how disappointed I am in the blatant shenanigans of the judges and the producers. I’m quite disgusted. It does lead me to wonder just how scripted the judges were…and clearly, how worried they are about how they are perceived by the squeaky wheels on social media (looking at you Jules).

Anyway, it’s over and done with and despite their best attempts at…whatever…I doubt they were totally successful. Bindi’s fans are rallied, Alek’s likely are as well, Nick’s are…Nick’s.  They’re likely rallied to defend their guy for his part in the “baby shower” (tm Cidra) that was Monday night. That leaves Carlos, Tamar and Alexa pretty much forgotten in the middle. I mean really, I doubt that was their intent, but at the end of the day you have three fired up fanbases who likely didn’t need firing up – and probably not what you intended at all.

As always, I could be wrong, but it seems to me that if you were looking to shake up the leader board and give Nick a boost, you SHOULDN’T tell Bindi she’s in a league of her own, that you can’t give her “10s every week” and that you’re “searching really hard for a flaw” before giving her a nine and Nick enough points to get within striking distance of her cumulative score (which WILL become important later in the season, I’m sure). First, the fans aren’t STUPID – they see why you’re “searching” and the reasons aren’t good. Second, saying all those things makes it look like some sort of conspiracy (like, why do you HAVE to look harder at her than you do at anyone else?). Third…can’t think of a third. Anyway, why not just say her shoulders looked like a problem to you and give her a 9?? Talking too much gets these judges in trouble.

So, is it all for just the drama of it? I can’t for the life of me figure out what the point of all that was. I doubt Nick needs saving and what is their vested interest in Carlos? Why is he more important than Alexa (or Alek for that matter)? I can’t figure out what Carrie Ann was looking at when she said it took Bindi and Derek “a while” to get started, since both Witney and Derek had a “rally the crowd” moment at the beginning of the dance and then Bindi proceeded to do a shit ton of GOOD jive while Carlos…didn’t. NOT ONE judge voted for Bindi over Carlos after WEEKS of her out dancing him??  You can SEE the two dancing side by side and most of us have DVRs – so we know she’s wrong. But why is it necessary to make sure that Bindi doesn’t get the two points. Or that Carlos does? And is the simple answer that CAI is reading a script and Derek changed up the dance off choreo after the dress rehearsal?? But again…why?

Seems to me that all roads lead me back to “saving” Tamar and Carlos OR just making this thing a horse race.  I think it was pretty clear they intended Tamar to win the dance off, and they clearly went out of their way for Carlos.  Nick is at the first position and Carlos in the second, so it’s a bit of a leaderboard shake up.  But what I think is that they showed their hand in a big way – I think they are determined to get rid of Alek and Alexa for some mysterious reason. IF Tamar had won the dance off she would be at 30 points – one point ahead of Carlos and would have knocked Bindi down to 4th place. Alexa would be down at 25 with Alek and would LIKELY be going home next week. Instead, she’s got a 10k vote margin over Alek and Tamar isn’t quite as safe as she was the other way.  Interesting. Infuriating.

Anyway, what we have is a bunch of scores that look like this:

Week 8 Table 1

Nick is four points ahead of his closest competitor, Carlos. Bindi and Tamar are one point back from Carlos and Alexa is just one point back from them. And this is why none of their machinations really seem to make sense. ONE point is not going to save Carlos from Bindi or Tamar, and possibly not from Alek either. That leaves Alexa.  Why were they anxious to put space between Alexa and Carlos? Why do they like him better?? I don’t get it.

Anyway, our low man on the totem pole is Alek, who they seem to not want around anymore. Here’s what Alek needs, in terms of votes. Remember (since I was asked about this last week), the numbers on the right hand side of the table are the number of votes needed *per million votes cast*.  It’s just a way to figure out the vote difference between the couples, since we don’t actually know who’s getting what in actual votes. It’s a way to take the judges scores into consideration and figuring how many more votes people with lower scores need to be safe.

Week 8 Table 2

As you can see, Alek needs more than 10k votes per million votes cast in order to beat Alexa and be safe – not a huge number by any means. People have beaten far larger spreads. I’m not so sure that he’s beating Alexa any more…it *feels* like Alexa is on a roll of some kind. I say “feels” because that’s how I judge this show a lot of the time – just a feeling you get based on a whole bunch of different metrics, some of which are intangible. It’s more often right that wrong, but I have been wrong before.  I consider myself to be a fairly average view of DWTS – and I *really* like Alexa and I want her to stay. I voted for her during the dance off, although I throw all my regular votes to my number one, Bindi.

Anyway, I consider this to be another somewhat difficult week to call. For those of you new to this site and having a bit of trouble following along, Alek needs ONE of the following things to be true in order to be safe:

  • Alek needs to get 10,310 more votes per million votes cast than Alexa, OR;
  • Alek needs to get 15,465 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Bindi or Tamar, OR;
  • Alek needs to get 20,620 more votes per million votes cast than Carlos, OR;
  • Alek needs to get 41,240 more votes per million votes cast than Nick.

I don’t think that Alek is getting the votes to beat either Bindi or Nick, so I call those two safe. The question is, is he beating Alexa, Tamar or Carlos??

Something to keep in mind is that during the public voting in the dance off, Andy beat Alek by a few percent and still ended up going home. Yes, I understand the points and the voting count for this week, my point is that Andy beat Alek in the public vote but Alek had the votes to overcome a less than 7,000 vote margin from last week and be safe – but it makes me wonder if he’s on the bubble this week.  If Alek is killing it with the public, you would expect that to be a tiny bit reflected in the public vote for the dance off, even if a tiny percentage actually voted for the dance off. But maybe it’s not. After all, I voted for Alexa, but my actual votes go to Bindi. I think we need to give it a tiny bit of consideration though.

Alexa is a bit different. While Andy only beat Alek by 4 percent, Alexa slayed Tamar 76% to 24%. That’s pretty massive…..however, I would also wager that Alexa had a whole bunch of Derek fans behind her (and that Bindi didn’t get the same consideration from Mark fans OR Val fans). I don’t think these numbers can really be relied on, so I would only give it a weight of about 20% in my consideration of who’s going to be safe and who isn’t.

So…is Alek getting the more than 15k votes he needs to pass Tamar or the nearly 21k he needs to beat Carlos?? Let’s look at what the others need and then figure it out. First…Alexa.

Week 8 Table 3

As you can see, Alexa only needs about 5,200 votes per million votes cast to beat Tamar. That is *nothing* – and I think she can do it. It doesn’t matter if Alek is catching her, as long as she is beating one other person, and I think she’s beating Tamar.

Moving on, what does Tamar need to be safe?

Week 8 Table 4

Tamar needs that same 5,200 votes per million votes cast to beat Carlos. No idea if she’s doing it. She got beat in the live vote, but so did Carlos.  What would it take for Tamar to be *eliminated*? For her to be eliminated, ALL of the following has to happen:

  • Alek has to get 15,465 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Alexa has to get 5,160 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Bindi has to get ONE more vote per million votes cast, AND;
  • Tamar does NOT get the 5,160 more votes per million votes cast to beat Carlos, AND;
  • Tamar does NOT get the 26k more votes per million votes cast to beat Nick.

I think Alexa gets the votes to beat Tamar, so I think Alexa is safe. I think it all hinges on Carlos and Alek, Tamar being safe or not. Is Alek getting THAT many more votes than her? And is she getting that small number of votes to beat Carlos?

Let’s look at Carlos…he needs more than 20.7k more votes per million votes to beat Nick. I don’t think there is any way he is getting that. But does that mean he’s in trouble? Well, lets look at it…for Carlos to be *eliminated*, all of the following things have to happen:

  • Alek has to get 20,700 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Alexa has to get 10,400 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Bindi AND Tamar have to get 5,160 more vote per million votes cast, AND;
  • Carlos doesn’t get 20,700 more vote per million votes cast than Nick.

If all of those things happen, Carlos goes home.

Now, see if you can follow me as I break it down: Bindi is likely easily beating at least Tamar and Carlos and those below her aren’t getting the votes to pass her, so she’s safe. Most of the people below him aren’ t getting the votes to pass Nick so he’s safe. Alexa is, I think, getting the 5,160 votes to beat Tamar, so I think she’s safe. That leaves us with Alek, Tamar and Carlos.

This is the hard part. And I keep writing things then erasing them, but the sad fact is I’m just not sure. Part of my gut is saying that Alek is going home, that he can’t get the votes to beat Tamar and Carlos. Another part of me thinks that Tamar is going home…and the final part thinks that surely Tamar can get that 5k votes to beat Carlos. If she can, is Alek getting the 20k votes to beat Carlos?

:::sigh::: Alexa may be beating Tamar, but is she getting 20k more votes per million than her husband? I tend to think no, so I think he’s safe. That leaves us with Alek and Tamar. Tamar doesn’t need many votes to beat Carlos, but I just don’t know if she is. Maybe. You see the problem? You can go round and round in this manner for hours…and it feels like I have.

Because I can see how Alexa could be beating Tamar, but not Carlos, and how Tamar could beat Carlos, but Alek can’t beat Carlos…I have to think we might lose Alek this week.

If not Alek…I think my second choice would be Carlos. Or Tamar. Of course…I could be wrong about Alexa too.

So, I’m going with Alek as number 1 elimination. Carlos or Tamar is my second choice. What do you think?