DWTS Season 21, Week EIGHT – Dancing by the Numbers
What a week. I don’t even know where to start with how disappointed I am in the blatant shenanigans of the judges and the producers. I’m quite disgusted. It does lead me to wonder just how scripted the judges were…and clearly, how worried they are about how they are perceived by the squeaky wheels on social media (looking at you Jules).
Anyway, it’s over and done with and despite their best attempts at…whatever…I doubt they were totally successful. Bindi’s fans are rallied, Alek’s likely are as well, Nick’s are…Nick’s. They’re likely rallied to defend their guy for his part in the “baby shower” (tm Cidra) that was Monday night. That leaves Carlos, Tamar and Alexa pretty much forgotten in the middle. I mean really, I doubt that was their intent, but at the end of the day you have three fired up fanbases who likely didn’t need firing up – and probably not what you intended at all.
As always, I could be wrong, but it seems to me that if you were looking to shake up the leader board and give Nick a boost, you SHOULDN’T tell Bindi she’s in a league of her own, that you can’t give her “10s every week” and that you’re “searching really hard for a flaw” before giving her a nine and Nick enough points to get within striking distance of her cumulative score (which WILL become important later in the season, I’m sure). First, the fans aren’t STUPID – they see why you’re “searching” and the reasons aren’t good. Second, saying all those things makes it look like some sort of conspiracy (like, why do you HAVE to look harder at her than you do at anyone else?). Third…can’t think of a third. Anyway, why not just say her shoulders looked like a problem to you and give her a 9?? Talking too much gets these judges in trouble.
So, is it all for just the drama of it? I can’t for the life of me figure out what the point of all that was. I doubt Nick needs saving and what is their vested interest in Carlos? Why is he more important than Alexa (or Alek for that matter)? I can’t figure out what Carrie Ann was looking at when she said it took Bindi and Derek “a while” to get started, since both Witney and Derek had a “rally the crowd” moment at the beginning of the dance and then Bindi proceeded to do a shit ton of GOOD jive while Carlos…didn’t. NOT ONE judge voted for Bindi over Carlos after WEEKS of her out dancing him?? You can SEE the two dancing side by side and most of us have DVRs – so we know she’s wrong. But why is it necessary to make sure that Bindi doesn’t get the two points. Or that Carlos does? And is the simple answer that CAI is reading a script and Derek changed up the dance off choreo after the dress rehearsal?? But again…why?
Seems to me that all roads lead me back to “saving” Tamar and Carlos OR just making this thing a horse race. I think it was pretty clear they intended Tamar to win the dance off, and they clearly went out of their way for Carlos. Nick is at the first position and Carlos in the second, so it’s a bit of a leaderboard shake up. But what I think is that they showed their hand in a big way – I think they are determined to get rid of Alek and Alexa for some mysterious reason. IF Tamar had won the dance off she would be at 30 points – one point ahead of Carlos and would have knocked Bindi down to 4th place. Alexa would be down at 25 with Alek and would LIKELY be going home next week. Instead, she’s got a 10k vote margin over Alek and Tamar isn’t quite as safe as she was the other way. Interesting. Infuriating.
Anyway, what we have is a bunch of scores that look like this:
Nick is four points ahead of his closest competitor, Carlos. Bindi and Tamar are one point back from Carlos and Alexa is just one point back from them. And this is why none of their machinations really seem to make sense. ONE point is not going to save Carlos from Bindi or Tamar, and possibly not from Alek either. That leaves Alexa. Why were they anxious to put space between Alexa and Carlos? Why do they like him better?? I don’t get it.
Anyway, our low man on the totem pole is Alek, who they seem to not want around anymore. Here’s what Alek needs, in terms of votes. Remember (since I was asked about this last week), the numbers on the right hand side of the table are the number of votes needed *per million votes cast*. It’s just a way to figure out the vote difference between the couples, since we don’t actually know who’s getting what in actual votes. It’s a way to take the judges scores into consideration and figuring how many more votes people with lower scores need to be safe.
As you can see, Alek needs more than 10k votes per million votes cast in order to beat Alexa and be safe – not a huge number by any means. People have beaten far larger spreads. I’m not so sure that he’s beating Alexa any more…it *feels* like Alexa is on a roll of some kind. I say “feels” because that’s how I judge this show a lot of the time – just a feeling you get based on a whole bunch of different metrics, some of which are intangible. It’s more often right that wrong, but I have been wrong before. I consider myself to be a fairly average view of DWTS – and I *really* like Alexa and I want her to stay. I voted for her during the dance off, although I throw all my regular votes to my number one, Bindi.
Anyway, I consider this to be another somewhat difficult week to call. For those of you new to this site and having a bit of trouble following along, Alek needs ONE of the following things to be true in order to be safe:
- Alek needs to get 10,310 more votes per million votes cast than Alexa, OR;
- Alek needs to get 15,465 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Bindi or Tamar, OR;
- Alek needs to get 20,620 more votes per million votes cast than Carlos, OR;
- Alek needs to get 41,240 more votes per million votes cast than Nick.
I don’t think that Alek is getting the votes to beat either Bindi or Nick, so I call those two safe. The question is, is he beating Alexa, Tamar or Carlos??
Something to keep in mind is that during the public voting in the dance off, Andy beat Alek by a few percent and still ended up going home. Yes, I understand the points and the voting count for this week, my point is that Andy beat Alek in the public vote but Alek had the votes to overcome a less than 7,000 vote margin from last week and be safe – but it makes me wonder if he’s on the bubble this week. If Alek is killing it with the public, you would expect that to be a tiny bit reflected in the public vote for the dance off, even if a tiny percentage actually voted for the dance off. But maybe it’s not. After all, I voted for Alexa, but my actual votes go to Bindi. I think we need to give it a tiny bit of consideration though.
Alexa is a bit different. While Andy only beat Alek by 4 percent, Alexa slayed Tamar 76% to 24%. That’s pretty massive…..however, I would also wager that Alexa had a whole bunch of Derek fans behind her (and that Bindi didn’t get the same consideration from Mark fans OR Val fans). I don’t think these numbers can really be relied on, so I would only give it a weight of about 20% in my consideration of who’s going to be safe and who isn’t.
So…is Alek getting the more than 15k votes he needs to pass Tamar or the nearly 21k he needs to beat Carlos?? Let’s look at what the others need and then figure it out. First…Alexa.
As you can see, Alexa only needs about 5,200 votes per million votes cast to beat Tamar. That is *nothing* – and I think she can do it. It doesn’t matter if Alek is catching her, as long as she is beating one other person, and I think she’s beating Tamar.
Moving on, what does Tamar need to be safe?
Tamar needs that same 5,200 votes per million votes cast to beat Carlos. No idea if she’s doing it. She got beat in the live vote, but so did Carlos. What would it take for Tamar to be *eliminated*? For her to be eliminated, ALL of the following has to happen:
- Alek has to get 15,465 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Alexa has to get 5,160 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Bindi has to get ONE more vote per million votes cast, AND;
- Tamar does NOT get the 5,160 more votes per million votes cast to beat Carlos, AND;
- Tamar does NOT get the 26k more votes per million votes cast to beat Nick.
I think Alexa gets the votes to beat Tamar, so I think Alexa is safe. I think it all hinges on Carlos and Alek, Tamar being safe or not. Is Alek getting THAT many more votes than her? And is she getting that small number of votes to beat Carlos?
Let’s look at Carlos…he needs more than 20.7k more votes per million votes to beat Nick. I don’t think there is any way he is getting that. But does that mean he’s in trouble? Well, lets look at it…for Carlos to be *eliminated*, all of the following things have to happen:
- Alek has to get 20,700 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Alexa has to get 10,400 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Bindi AND Tamar have to get 5,160 more vote per million votes cast, AND;
- Carlos doesn’t get 20,700 more vote per million votes cast than Nick.
If all of those things happen, Carlos goes home.
Now, see if you can follow me as I break it down: Bindi is likely easily beating at least Tamar and Carlos and those below her aren’t getting the votes to pass her, so she’s safe. Most of the people below him aren’ t getting the votes to pass Nick so he’s safe. Alexa is, I think, getting the 5,160 votes to beat Tamar, so I think she’s safe. That leaves us with Alek, Tamar and Carlos.
This is the hard part. And I keep writing things then erasing them, but the sad fact is I’m just not sure. Part of my gut is saying that Alek is going home, that he can’t get the votes to beat Tamar and Carlos. Another part of me thinks that Tamar is going home…and the final part thinks that surely Tamar can get that 5k votes to beat Carlos. If she can, is Alek getting the 20k votes to beat Carlos?
:::sigh::: Alexa may be beating Tamar, but is she getting 20k more votes per million than her husband? I tend to think no, so I think he’s safe. That leaves us with Alek and Tamar. Tamar doesn’t need many votes to beat Carlos, but I just don’t know if she is. Maybe. You see the problem? You can go round and round in this manner for hours…and it feels like I have.
Because I can see how Alexa could be beating Tamar, but not Carlos, and how Tamar could beat Carlos, but Alek can’t beat Carlos…I have to think we might lose Alek this week.
If not Alek…I think my second choice would be Carlos. Or Tamar. Of course…I could be wrong about Alexa too.
So, I’m going with Alek as number 1 elimination. Carlos or Tamar is my second choice. What do you think?
For some reason I feel like Tamar might be leaving us come Monday. I feel like tptb might want the PenaVega duo in the finale with Nick, and that they don’t want Alek there. I don’t feel like they particularly care who out of Tamar and Bindi stays or goes, but Bindi will obviously make it to the end. I’m not entirely sure if Alexa is getting the votes she needs to surpass Tamar, but I feel like she might be and since I feel like Alek could very well be beating them both in the voting department I just kind of sense that Tamar is out next. I’m probably wrong though.
Julia, I’m with you on Tamar leaving. I’m torn between Alek and Tamar. I’m not sure if he can overcome the big margin, and with Tamar she just doesn’t seem to do it for a lot of people. She’s forgettable.
I think Alaxa is beating Carlos in votes and they want them both to end thus the Carlos pimping. The way Nick was treated makes me wonder a little about his votes even though I can’t believe I am saying that. For some reason just don’t think he has the personality of some of his other band mates. I think Tamar or Alex is going home though.
On a related note, I know someone said Alek was probably going to get the Nastia treatment in that we’d be seeing repeats of his Week 7 package for the rest of the season. Well I wouldn’t be surprised if we do see it again, but right now they seem to be doing that with Tamar. A new promo has that “best dancer in the competition” clip in it. To quote someone on twitter, I would not want to be the TV Val sees that on. So now I’m thinking maybe they do actually want Bindi in the finale over Tamar for whatever reason. I mean, obviously she will be there, but the continuous airing of that Tamar bit might be TPTB trying to protect Nick or the PenaVegas over her.
We all thought Tamar was leaving last week so I wouldn’t count on that. She has quite a large fan base and is on a daily talk show plus basically a big part of the black community is voting for her. So I really don’t know what’s gonna happen because although it seems like the general audience hates her she has a fan base of her own and it doesn’t seem like Carlos has one nor the general audience loves him. Unlike James, Carlos isn’t likeable and well obviously can’t rely on the fan girl shippers . All I know is that Alexa Bindi and Nick are probably safe.
I don’t understand why they’re interested in keeping Carlos around. To me, Alexa and Alek seem a lot more like and enjoyable to watch than Carlos.
I do agree with you though about we might be losing Alek. I think it’ll between either him or Tamar. I can’t decide if people ever really warmed up to her. I liked her in the beginning, but recently I’m not really enjoying her dances.
Bindi and Nick are pretty much safe for the final.
Of the remaining 4, I really really only want Alexa to be safe. I hope Tamar goes.
I think alek probably will go too and he and bindi are my faves. What makes me angry is that if the judges actually did their jobs during the dance off alek would be in a much better position to stay. He at least attempted the samba which should have been awarded. With those two points he would be tied with alexa and one point away from Tamar. Granted it wasnt great, but he actually completed the dance style assigned. It does seem they just want him gone…but why? I also agree that alexa seems more solid. I Think they will put the carlos alek duo in the bottom two.
Thanks for another awesome numbers post Heidi!! I always love reading how you reason things out. 🙂
My gut says it’s Tamar or possibly Carlos going, although it’s possible that my gut is listening to my wishful thinking. 😛 I wouldn’t be shocked if Alek were eliminated, but I hope he’s not. I also don’t understand why TPTB are trying so hard to pimp Carlos and I hope it fails and he doesn’t make the finale.
I didn’t think Tamar could go yet, but, now I really have to wonder. I fear it’s Alek, but, I really hope it’s Tamar going or Carlos. Great numbers post again, Heidi. You make me think. I always love that.
I don’t understand about Julianne either. How long she’s been a judge? Does she know that “Julianne shouldn’t judge because she always give Derek 10”, “Julianne shouldn’t judge, she’s bias because Derek is her brother” will always there no matter what? She would be parading from the east coast to the west coast giving other pros, mainly Val, all the glory and it WiLL NOT stop people from saying those things. I also think Bindi is safe. I just hope the producers doesn’t throw her under the bus later in the season. Can’t help but to think about their manipulations. I agree PH, I think some of Derek fans are voting for Alexa too, maybe splitting votes? The problem is we don’t really know how “safe” Bindi is. I remember Bethany was never placed in jeopardy and finish 4th place. Even Rumer was in jeopardy once. I just hope that Bindi is getting that much votes and not TPTB way of making people think she’s “safe”. Anyway, I agree about Alek getting eliminated.
Bindi is hot in the news right now, more so than any other contestant this season. She has been since the season started, but the buzz surrounding her picked up even more after Most Memorable Year night and has barely seemed to die down since. So I’m pretty much convinced she’s getting more than enough votes to get through right now. I wouldn’t worry about her not being in jeopardy yet. Though I have noticed that for whatever reason, Derek’s partners aren’t often in that position until they are being eliminated and idk why that is.
Again, they want lots of things for the finale and you have to keep all of them in mind. They want the big vote/media attention getters – like Nick and Bindi. They also want the best dancers – that’s everyone but Alek. They want drama. They want pros going on tour to win. How they prioritize these things and satisfy all of them is very difficult.
I think we are at the point where they would like Nick and Bindi, the highest vote getters of the Tamar/Carlos/Alexa combo, the married couple, and the good to great dancers. Thinking about it logically, it seems they would want to lose Alek and Tamar. Losing those two gets them the most in of their competing desires in the finale. Whether they will actually get all that is what’s in question – since I don’t believe they actually rig the votes. They manipulate the audience to try to get them to vote how they want. Monday we find out if they succeeded.
Sometimes they are “protecting” someone…and sometimes they’re just trying to get rid of someone else. It IS two different things, actually.
You have a mouse in your pocket, Amanda?? Who is “we all”?? I called Andy as the one leaving. Speak for yourself.
That is NOT what I said, Thiana. Please read my post again. I said that Derek fans very likely voted for Alexa in the dance off. That is all.
Man, I wish you people would read more carefully. This sort of thing is happening more and more, on every post.
@ Julia – That’s an interesting observation about Derek’s partners not being in jeopardy before their elimination. I could be wrong, but I wonder if TPTB have figured out that Derek’s fans are rabid (and numerous) enough that putting him in jeopardy might kickstart them into voting harder and that it might be better to let sleeping dogs lie, so to speak. He’s never had a problem with early eliminations and TPTB aren’t going to be trying to pimp him to win since he “wins too much”.
Sorry if I misread what you said PH. I was reading it too fast.
just letting you guys know, I’ve been seeing a few posts with my name on it even though they weren’t by me, including the earlier one on this page.
I’m torn on this too… Part of me says it may be the week we lose Alek, thanks to all of the dance off and scoring shenanigans. But the other part of me can’t forget that he survived that really poor edit. Not only that, his package this week was pretty compelling. Also, Tamar and the PenaVegas have all been in the bottom previously. Which just says to me that their votes haven’t been so steady. But it’s hard to know if the bottom couples in elimination are in fact the true couples in jeopardy.
This is indeed a tough one. I’m going to hope against hope that we don’t say goodbye to #hotboynation on Monday, but I’ll definitely be prepared.
TPTB knows the large audience votes Alex gets but I still think they will vote him off this Monday somehow. Then the Penavegas. I’m suspicious about this Bindi contract deal hitting the media at this time. I can’t think she needs the votes. Not only does she have her fan base but Derrick has his own.I think the judges are still hot over Nick and he might switch places with Bindi but I still think she will be #1 and Nick maybe #2.
Again, the “Derek’s partners never in jeopardy” is a fallacy.
If the story about Bindi’s contract has any impact at all, it’s more likely to make people feel FOR her, not against her.
I said recently, PH (about Derek’s partners and jeopardy status). I’m pretty sure neither Bethany nor Nastia were put in the bottom before their respective eliminations, and Bindi hasn’t yet been there either. I’m a little fuzzy beyond that. Was Amy ever there? What about Amber or Kellie or Shawn, or people before that?
You actually didn’t use the word “recently”.
Jennifer was in jeopardy. That’s what I remember off the top of my head and I don’t care enough at this moment to go look for more. I’m sure there were more.
FYI – I did a study a few seasons ago and found that people who were placed in jeopardy even once don’t win the show. The ONLY exception as of the time I did the study was Jennifer. I think I did that AFTER Amber, Kellie and Shawn, so the answer would be no. That said, we haven’t always had jeopardy. It started in…Season 10? Or later. Again, to tired to go look right now.
@PrincessHeidi Rumer was in jeopardy 2 times and won so was Meryl anda few others. Derek’s partners are mostly never in Jeopardy until eliminated Amber Nastia Kellie Maria Bethany Shawn I could go on.
Oh I meant to say recently in my other post sorry!
I think the findings from your study sound pretty accurate. A winner being in jeopardy seems like the exception, not the rule. Since Amber’season, I know Rumer was a couple times, and Meryl was at least once, but I don’t think Alfonso ever was. I’ve noticed the most recent two runners-up we’ve had were in that position relative;y frequently during their seasons.
“People have beaten far larger spreads” Heidi I’m curious now, do you remember the reigning champ of the largest spread covered ever? I remember someone mentioned Kurt Warner covered something around 40k per million votes and managed to stay over Audrina Patridge. Or maybe remember anyone who’ve beaten rather large spreads? I’d love to know that.
Hi. Just to say Alek lost a lot of votes because the West Coast (where he is from and has a large base in Ore and Cal) couldn’t vote in the dance off He will stay on in my opinion. Also count in in order to vote the dance off early (5 – 7 pm), you can’t be at work or since we are auto commuters – driving — we were not voting the dance off. What do you think
He is still going to get eliminated! Bye
Amanda, I don’t appreciate your tone. BYE and please don’t come back!!
@Daniel – It’s either Kurt Warner in season 11 or Ralph Macchio in season 12 – can’t remember which. But both were in the neighborhood of a 40K margin to overcome…and both did.
You do realize you’re acting childish AF, don’t you Amanda?
I think that Alek’s package and his icon choice likely played well with the conservative-leaning DWTS audience, and that will save him this week. I hope so. I don’t understand why the producers seem to want him gone – he has a compelling story. I’m guessing that Tamar will be eliminated this week.
In earlier seasons, were the two in jeopardy typically the bottom two? I don’t remember when they started saying “while not necessarily the bottom two…”. I wonder if Jennifer Grey was really bottom 2 when she was in jeopardy – I think it was her samba week.
I hope it’s Tamar, but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Alek.
I would like final three to be Bindi, Nick and Alexa. I suppose I’d like Alek for fourth spot, even though it seems like a long shot. I do like him and I’m curious to see a Lindsay freestyle.
As long as it’s not Tamar and Val in the fourth spot, I’m happy.
As I CLEARLY said, Amanda, I did the study a few seasons ago. You could go on all you like, you would still be a child trying to act like she actually knows something. Incorrect.
Julia, the big thing that I noticed in that study was that there was a couple different patterns to “jeopardy”. Some seasons it meant nothing, other seasons it was a clear indication that someone was going to go home. The problem is, you never really know until a season is over which pattern they are going with. Of course, once Rob Wade took over, everything changed – and not in a good way.
Kurt Warner is the one I always use as an example, Daniel – Audrina was, I believe, at the top of the leader board and was eliminated and Kurt had to beat something like 48k votes per million votes cast to do it. There may have been bigger ones, but I can’t go back and look right now.
Funny thing was, Courtney and I were telling people and telling people that she was going to be eliminated early and wouldn’t win, and very few people would believe us. 🙂
Was Noah ever in the situation that required these sort of odds? I’m asking because I think he and Alek share a similar fanbase and Noah was never the strongest dancer, but still made the finals. I know it’s not comparing apples to apples, but for this show, it’s the best I’ve got. I personally remember thinking that Noah was going to be eliminated a few times last season and was wrong (I hadn’t found this site yet, obvs).
As I said, Lea, the dance off counted very little in my estimates. That said, I don’t think it matters that much that the west coast didn’t vote.
No, marintx, not always. And, as I’ve said, Jennifer’s season was a bit odd. EVERYONE was in jeopardy at one point or another.
Noah can’t be even remotely compared to Alek, IMO. Noah’s challenges are so obvious, and dancing was, for him, so much more of a challenge.
And then Noah proposed, which propelled him into the finale, IMO.
@PH Agreed that Noah was in a world of his own with regards to challenges… BUT, for me as a viewer, Noah’s shortcomings had more to do with his ability to learn the choreography than his physical attributes. He would often make mistakes and missteps that to me, had nothing to do with legs and everything to do with nerves, like Alexa. I was thrilled Noah made it as far as he did and it was fun to root for him. And TBH I was nauseated when he proposed… that made me not want to vote for him.
In any case, I think Alek has a good chance at some decent scores given his dances and I’d love to see him get through another week.
Thanks for all the time and effort with these numbers posts (and all the other posts as well). You’ve been spot on all season!!
I dug up the two “Dancing by the Numbers” posts in question – here’s the one from the week Audrina was eliminated, and Kurt needed an absurd amount of votes to pass her: https://www.puredwts.com/2010/10/26/dwts-season-11-week-6-dancing-by-the-numbers/ and here’s the one from the week Romeo was eliminated, and Ralph got a huge margin of votes to stay over him: https://www.puredwts.com/2011/05/10/dwts-season-12-week-8-dancing-by-the-numbers/ The margin Ralph had to overcome wasn’t as huge as I thought – only about 23K. But Kurt? He had to overcome a margin of 40K+…and it did happen.
EDIT: The exact amount of votes Kurt needed to get past Audrina was 48,300 votes per million votes cast – and since Audrina was in 2nd place that week, everyone else also got the necessary margins to pass her, and she wasn’t able to get past Brandy at the top. Goes to show how few people were voting for Audrina.
Just want to say I’m on the west coast and I voted in the dance-off. Since it was an online vote as opposed to a Twitter vote, I just went to the site at the last half hour of the show and voted.
Man, this site has pulled me into another world. It’s like I’m not even watching the same show anymore.
@marintx you’re probably right about Alek’s package going over well with that demographic. I think his package played well to the conservative-leaning audience, Alexa’s to the Christian crowd, Nick’s to the romantics, and Bindi’s to pretty much everyone in the general audience. Part of the reason my guess for this week is Tamar was because her package/dance combo was nice, but to me it didn’t particular stand out in comparison to most other people’s. Carlos’ didn’t either (neither of their combos seemed to appeal to a particular segment of the general DWTS audience like everyone else’s) but he’s higher on the leaderboard right now and was put in jeopardy so it might be harder for Tamar to beat him this week.
I, unfortunately, think it might be either Alexa or Alek though my dream final four would Alek, Alexa, Bindi, and Nick. I am inclined to think that Alexa has picked up support over the last few weeks so I THINK she might be safe. That leaves me with Alek and I just honestly don’t know how many votes he could be getting. IF he’s safe this week I think he’s in the finals for sure.
Ideally either Carlos or Tamar will be eliminated but I just don’t know if it’s in the cards. Tamar’s fans are very vocal but I just don’t know if they are actually voting. I also don’t know what to make of her losing the fan voting portion of the dance off. Val’s fans are all over twitter and every other social media platform so if nothing else I expected his fans to up her voting amount.
I had attributed the close margins of the public vote for Andy & Alek’s dance off ( 54% / 50%) to Allison’s large fanbase. After a bit of redemption package, I think Alek will survive this week but I don’t see him making it farther after that. My dream final is for him to be in the final 4 so I will be pleasantly surprised if he does somehow edge someone out to make it. My personal feeling is that it’s going to come down to Carlos or Tamar who will be the one to go this coming Monday.
It was very telling to me that Tamar not only lost the fan vote in her dance battle, but just how large the margin between she and Alexa was. In contrast, Alek and Andy’s was very close, and I think if the west coast had been able to watch at the time Alek might have taken it. I don’t know if that would have been the case with the Tamar vs. Alexa battle. If Tamar does survive this Monday I feel like it’ll have more to do with Val’s fans than Tamar’s because I barely hear anything from them. Most people I know voting for them are voting because of Val and don’t seem to care about Tamar. I know his fanbase doesn’t touch Derek’s but it definitely exists. I’m seriously thinking if Tamar had another pro other than him she probably would have been out by now.
@Julia, except if that pro was Derek! D works with his partners to focus on the positives and remember to enjoy every week. He really invests in getting to know them and build a relationship – that gets even the trickiest ones through. We could have seen a sample of it if Derek had gotten Tamar in the switch up. It would have been a different side of her for sure.
Agree that by the numbers Alek will likely be going home (& if not this week, soon, bc/ the judges will continue to underscore him.)Shame really, bc/ at least Alek always does the dance assigned w/out reverting to big productions, hip-hop dancing, hiding behind costumes or doing the worm. Maybe if Len was judging, he’d appreciate Alek’s technique, posture, sturdy waltz frame/hold, & sticking to the dance assigned…a jive is a jive the entire dance, not just a little bit of jive & the rest a performance dance favored by other teams. Guess, Alek could have used those extra two points in the face-off w/ Andy who strangely won for blowing off the dance & doing the worm.
Thanks for another interesting numbers post, PH! I enjoyed reading and sorta going along with you in the journey to figure what’s gonna happen come Monday. I think I am with you as far as potential eliminations are concerned. Alek does appear to be at the end of his journey. The Carlos angel is just beyond my comprehension – I have read through all possible reasons – and only the Whitney instead of Mark angle seems to make a little sense. I do think the judges are unusuly kind to Whitney, even when she is slack as a choreographer, but come down hard on Mark consistently. So there could be a grain of truth in that theory. That aside, even from the POV of pure dancing, I do feel he is the weakest link – as much as I have enjoyed him and Lindsay this season. But I would be delighted if he springs a surprise this Monday with his AT and Paso, coz then I’d want him to stay for another week. I am not a fan of Whitney’s AT or Paso, and am excited to see Lindsay’s – so hoping that works in his favor.
Who I would like to see leave is Tamar. She is adding absolutely no value to the show for me as a viewer and I don’t see her wanting to be here and do it well. In her head, she is way above this show and caring about anything related – so I would really want her to go this Monday. She feels like a guest who has overstayed their welcome 😉
I honestly wonder if Tamar would have done all that well with Derek either. She’d definitely have a lot of support from his fanbase and I’m sure he’d put his usual 200% into it to try to get it to work bur for some reason but I just can’t see them gelling all that well or having that great a connection (I can’t really see Tamar having that kind of spark with ANYONE on the dance floor tbh). But maybe it would have worked. I think she would have been an interesting challenge for him for sure.
Yeah, don’t come in here for the first time and claim you have insider knowledge on who covered what spreads. No one gets that info as an insider unless they’re Rob Wade himself, for one thing…for another, you have no standing here.
The Audrina example came to mind for me too.
Another example that’s hard to compare because the season was so weird in terms of votes from the previous week being combined with the scores from the current week was when Bill Engvall beat out Elizabeth Berkley who was 14 points ahead of him on the scoreboard. He must have gotten at least 45.000 more votes than her the previous week. That same season Christian Milian was way ahead of several contestants on the scoreboard when she went home when combined from the previous week.
2 more I can think of- Kristin Cavallari 6 points ahead of Chaz Bono in week 3.
I’m actually a little concerned for Alexa – while I do agree that she’s picked up steam and is very likable, I have to wonder if there’s any sense of complacency by voters because she seemed to be a bit out of the woods. Also her being in the middle of the pack with a good but not standout dance – that could be bad. I hope these fears prove unfounded and that the Twitter vote for the dance-off indicates at least somewhat that she will easily overtake Tamar.
Have there been any other rumblings about a double elimination? I’d prefer if there was a four-person finale, as I think the only reason that we didn’t have one last season was because they wanted to eliminate the possibility of Rumer and Val losing out on a win to Nastia and Derek.
I hope that Alexa is the next one out. She’s just not doing anything for me and she is constantly messing up/ forgetting steps on the dance floor. As for that AT, I really disliked it a lot. Maybe another style of dance would’ve suited that David/ Goliath idea better? I like her better than Carlos personality-wise but Carlos for me is the better dancer of the two.
I think Alek’s rehersal package will help him and I think and hope that he’ll stay a bit longer. I’m not ready to say goodbye!
I haven’t heard a peep about a double elimination from antyone involved with the show and I think the reason we didn’t have a four-couple finale last season was because they were only allotted one hour for the first night. As a result, it all felt pretty rushed to me.
I’m a little worried for Alexa as well, especially if she really is splitting votes with Carlos. If that is the case I don’t know who’d be getting more votes after this week. IMO Alexa’s dance sticks out in my mind much more, but Carlos had the higher score, but he was also in jeopardy. So it might be pretty even between the two this week in terms of votes. There are also Witney and Mark’s respective fanbases to contend with, though I doubt either’s make that much f an impact here.
Agree that Alek is most likely to leave this week. They repeated both his and Tamars parts of their negative packages again in this weeks show. I think they’re pushing for a PenaVega finale with Nick and Bindi. Also each of them have an “impressive” dance this week (Argentine Tango and Contemporary) so that would get them both probably at the top of the leaderboard if they execute the dances properly and would save them from elimination in the semi-finale week propelling them into the finale? Just a thought..
I have learned so much since I found this site. Thank you all. I am pleased by the dances that Alex is doing this coming Monday. I think he will do great and as often happens, then be eliminated.I hope not. I live in the midwest and I couldn’t vote for HIS dance off. How many others couldn’t either. (Maybe he would have won it)
I had never thought about it before but they probably want the celebrity winner to do a little touring and be an excellent dancer and Bindi fits the bill. I don’t understand why they have to find a fault in order to give her a 9. They didn’t do that with Max & Meryl. They rec’d perfect scores most of the season.
In my mind Alex is already a winner, he jumped into DWTS having never danced or seen the show. He shows up, takes direction, hasn’t made any stumbling mistakes, dropped Lindsay, forgotten his steps or mentally checked out. And that isn’t even adding the stress of the shootings, or Spencer’s attack. For his age, he has patience, he’s courteous and even though I hated to see his one loss of temper on camera, I don’t begrudge him it one bit. Throughout this season, his fanbase has been huge to keep him in; we will have to see how it was last Monday.
I don’t know about Bruno, but I’m fairly convinced the only reason Julianne gave a 9 was because she was hearing the whiners saying “It’s not fair Bindi always gets 10s it’s just because Derek is her brother” which is totally stupid and completely ignores the fact that he’s had lower finishes than average since Julianne joined up as a judge.
#shart — I don’t understand why you couldn’t vote in the dance off. I live on the west coast and I was able to, just as every week I start voting online at 5pm local time (8pm in the east where it’s live). Although I vote early, I usually stay away from social media until the show starts on the west coast so I see the show fresh from beginning to end. I did the same thing this week, but from the dance off pairings I knew that Nick had won immunity. In any event, when abc does/puts up something online, it’s online in all time zones.
I honestly wish they would do away with the immunity thing Its only a way for TPTB to do their manipulation Nick obviously needed to be saved with his low scores from week 7 I mean really if Bindi deserves 10’s every week then give it to her why nit pick to prevent it. Tamar’s attitude and all the negative packages makes me wonder but then they may want Val to stick around as to promote the tour. As far as Carlos and Alexa they are probably splitting votes With all that said my guess is either Tamar or Alek bc I think both Carlos and Alexa are getting more votes even with split votes than Tamar and Alek One of them will be going home.
I’m just nervous for Alexa! I want her to pass her husband so badly but the judges are gunning to get Carlos into that finals!
I don’t know Suzy, I’ve never had problems voting before. I was watching the dance offs and my finger was ready to vote and the second Alek & Lins dance was over the message came up about the voting time is up for this. It wasn’t 30 seconds like it was supposed to be, it wasn’t 3 seconds. I don’t know. I think Alek will do real well on Monday. Unfortunately, he will probably be eliminated and after that, I’m not interested in the others so may not watch.
Tamar will leave on Monday, TPTB will try and push Alek to leave next week in order to get what I believe is their dream final 4, but I think Alek can beat Carlos on votes next week. Alexa has very strong dances next week which will get her the scores needed to make the final. TPTB have worked hard all season to drag Alexa and Carlos through the competition but I think Alek has the juice to sneak past Carlos, forcing TPTB to pull a husband v wife jeopardy in the fpsemi final instead of the final 4 which they’d prefer. I’m more interested in the scoring of Nick and Bindi from here on in. I’m expecting Nick to be given 10s aplenty from here on in while Bindi gets picked on again.
I would LOVE for Tamar to leave on Monday rather than Alek. I’m still hoping he makes the FInals…but I guess that’s not gonna happen! Still rather have either PenaVega in the Finals over Tamar ANY DAY!
I don’t know that Alek will be able to get past Carlos – the margins are likely to be a lot bigger next week than they are going into this week.
Woo thanks Court and Heidi! Always fascinating to learn these numbers, and 48k per million does seem really huge. I’ll make sure I’ll credit you guys when I include that on my blog. Now that I think about it, I’d love to dive back to all the past numbers posts and see who got the biggest spread covered each season, and if someone actually covered bigger spread than Kurt. Knowing my habits, I think I will lol.
Daniel, think Bristol Palin always beat the odds w/ low judges scores relative to the large public vote in her favor. It’s more fun to watch the show when it’s unpredictable, otherwise you can just hand the mirror ball to the best dancer on week one & forget the next three months of feigned competition.
But, sarah, you always knew that Bristol wasn’t going to win. And you were always pretty sure that Jennifer was going to win. At least I was.
I read all the comments above and was glad to find out that someone is posting on Saturday!
What my wife and I want to have happen is for Tamar/Carlos to leave this week, then the other next week.
What we think will happen is that Alek will leave this week or the next, and only one of the Tamar/Carlos/Alexa trio will also leave.
While we want Bindi to win, in our opinion Alek has by far shown the most overall growth this season, and we marvel at how far Lindsay has come as a pro since her first attempt with the boxer. We also would love to see a Lindsay freestyle for Alek, and eagerly anticipate Derek’s for Bindi.
I don’t know how the judges can watch a replay of some of their apparently scripted comments and not cringe from the way they come across. Does anybody have any idea how much they are paid?
So I don’t know where else to post this its sort of random – but are Emma and Sasha perhaps back together? Coz we know from the Alek stuff she’s “off the market”.. I’ve been noticing they’ve posted a lot of pics together over the past couple of weeks which are kinda different than the ones they normally have together and now Sasha just posted a really cute lovey-dovey pic of he and Emma dancing together and Nastia commented in love emojis?
Too much, Lee.
Unless the job is as a paid shill, then they’re probably being paid about right.
PH, My hat’s off to you for crunching the the numbers and wading through all those possibilities to give us your best guess for who’ll be getting the boot on Monday. Thanks for the shout out on the “baby shower”. I’ve been out of town for a few days and am trying to get caught up.
My feelings wouldn’t be hurt if Tamar or Carlos left. While I’d be sad to see Alek and Lindsay go, I’d be OK with it because the judges are just using him as a whipping post these days, and I don’t think anyone deserves that kind of treatment, especially not a nice guy like Alek.
I’m a huge Bindi fan and all my votes are going to her obviously! I live in Australia so it’s Monday for them & Tuesday for me. So when I’m at work in the morning they’re setting up and when I’m on my lunch break the shows in the middle of it so I get all these notifications on what dance is on and who’s going to be next and their score results.. So really it’s either eat my lunch or check Twitter for the scores.. And it’s usually Twitter over food on Tuesday’s for me haha. So reading This and seeing that Bindi will most definitely be safe makes all my worries disappear so thankyou ??
There’s no such thing as “definitely” Caitlyn.
Don’t stop voting Caitlyn….it’s getting down to the Nitty Gritty!! I’ll be power voting for Bindi and Derek from here on out!!
What they both said ^. After tonight it gets scary.. Gotta vote like crazy
PH, with 2 dances this week, and one of those will probably have the same score for 2 couples won’t that tend to make margins smaller? This is about the time scores tend to be higher and fan voting determine who leaves.
Hmm.. Since we have 6 couples left, wonder if they are gonna call two couples safe/in jeopardy early on and leave the last 4 till the end and determine their fate then. I just like it at the end cause that way nobody feels extra pressure or stress. But Stoli, the margins will definitely be closer for sure especially if there are multiple perfect scores. At this point in the game, most of the time the judges leave it to the fans to decide.
Generally speaking, Stoli.
My guess Tina is should Tamar or Alek be the couple to go, they’ll call whichever PenaVega needs the votes more in the bottom two to try and create a voting backlash. It’s worked all season so far for them.
@Lee (#72) – TV Guide reported last year (I think) that Bruno was making $60,000 per episode ($30K per hour). It’s a great gig, if you can get it. 🙂