DWTS Season 21, Week Nine – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, I figured you all would want to know who I think might get eliminated on Monday even if we don’t think someone is actually getting eliminated on Monday. We don’t really know for sure if it’s happening or not, but I’m leaning toward not.  I think what they’re going to do is take the points from this past Monday and the points from this coming Monday, combine it with all the votes from those two nights, and eliminate someone on the 23rd – finale night one. But I’m just guessing. 🙂

You’ve already read my rant on the disgrace that was DWTS Week 9, so I will just jump straight into the scores from this past Monday and the percentages.

DWTS Week 9 Table 1

Unlike last week, it’s Bindi who is out in front with a five point lead over Nick and there is a full 12 points between Bindi in first place and Alek in last place.  I think it’s safe to say that Bindi is safe, barring an outcry of “Derek has won too many times!!”. But what about the rest of them?

DWTS Week 9 Table 2

As you can see from the above table, Alek needs less than 10k votes per million votes cast to be safe over Carlos. That’s nothing. This is another reason why I don’t think we’ll see an elimination on Monday night – it could well be Carlos heading home.  For Alek to be safe, he only needs ONE of the following things to happen:

  • Alek has to get 9,300 more votes per million votes cast than Carlos, OR;
  • Alek has to get 21,700 more votes per million votes cast than Nick, OR;
  • Alek has to get 37,152 more votes per million votes cast than Bindi.

Now, I don’t think he’s getting the votes to get past Bindi but he is getting what he needs to get past Carlos. What I’m not sure about is Nick. I’m really curious to know how he’s really doing in the grand scheme of votes. I guess we only have little more than a week before we find out, but I expect to see Nick and Bindi standing with the trophy between them a week from Tuesday.  Mainly because I don’t think Carlos can get past Nick…but Alek is a wild card. I don’t know that Alek is beating Nick this week, but the margins usually shrink the more points you add to the total. If they get small enough, we’ll definitely see what Nick is made of.  So, look for them to low ball Alek even more than they already do this coming Monday. If they score him higher than normal it means he either had a dance too good for them to ignore…or he couldn’t beat the margin to get past Carlos.

What about Carlos? Well, I suspect, right now, that he’s going to take 4th place. That said, if they low ball Alek enough on Monday night and don’t eliminate anyone until the 23rd, Alek could take third place. It all hinges on how things shake out on Monday. If Carlos gets a couple perfect scores and Alek is still getting 8s? They’re trying to widen the margin. Funny thing is, last week with the Alek and Carlos being together a lot, they were totally hysterical and entertaining. I just was watching parts of the show again and both were cards. Could make things interesting as more viewers start to watch towards the end of the season.

Anyway, what has to happen for Carlos to be safe? ONE of the following:

  • Alek doesn’t get the 9,300 more votes per million votes cast than Carlos, OR;
  • Carlos gets 12,400 more votes per million votes cast than Nick, OR;
  • Carlos gets 27,900 more votes per million votes cast than Bindi.

Yeah, the number for Carlos to beat Nick is still pretty small, I just don’t think he’s doing it. I could certainly be wrong, but that’s actually one of the few things besides Bindi being safe that I feel relatively sure about.  If Carlos did manage to beat Nick, I still don’t think Alek can beat Nick, so in that instance Alek would go home.

So, Nick and Bindi are likely safe which leaves us with Alek and Carlos.  I suspect, if there is no elimination on Monday, that it is Carlos that would go home. IF they decide to eliminate someone on Monday, I would bet it is Alek. Follow me? That’s my obtuse way of saying that they’ll only have an elimination on Monday if it’s Alek going home.

But I think they want to go into the finale (that’s all planned out) with four couples. Much easier to just change this Monday instead of having to change any plans they may have for this Monday AND the finale.

We’ll see – only a little more than a week. What do you think?

ETA: It’s Monday night and Tom just claimed that either Bindi or Nick had the lowest combined total of judges scores and viewer votes. Keeping in mind that this show is filled with drama addicts and there is NO RULE that Tom’s script has to be truthful, especially if no one is going home, let’s take a quick look at the numbers to see if it’s actually plausible. 

For Bindi to be the theoretical eliminee, ALL of the following would have to be true:

  • Alek got 37,200 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Carlos got 27,900 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Nick got 15,500 more votes per million votes cast than her.

Now, call me crazy, but I don’t see Carlos, at least, making those votes. Don’t really believe the other two are either. For it to be Nick, ALL of the following things have to happen:

  • Alek got 21,700 more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;
  • Carlos got 12,400 more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;
  • Nick DIDN’T get the 15,500 more votes per million votes cast Bindi.

While the first and the last may be true, I can’t imagine that Carlos is getting 12.4k more votes per million than Nick.

I’ve been wrong before.  Nick is low man on the totem pole again this week. we’ll soon find out if I am or not…except they just gave him and Bindi a huge boost by calling both in jeopardy.