Dancing with the Stars Season 22, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well. I almost feel like writing this particular blog is a waste of time this week. Why? Well…read on.

Essentially, there is a pretty insurmountable hurdle for one of our contestants, mainly because a couple others who could have sheltered her gave great performances on Monday Night. Check it out.

Table 1

Mischa is a full four points below the next two contestants (Kim and Antonio) and, unfortunately for her, those two contestants are either likeable from an iconic TV show or from a NFL team with a rabid fanbase.  She has a lot of work to do and I don’t think it’s going to happen for her.  See below.

 

Table 2 week 2

Mischa needs ONE of the following things to happen in order to be safe:

  • She needs roughly 18k votes per million votes cast to beat either Kim or Antonio, OR;
  • She needs roughly 22.5k votes per million votes cast to beat any of Nyle, Von, Marla or Doug

And it just goes up from there. I just don’t see it happening. Her only shot might be Marla because Marla is likely the next weakest fanbase in those two groups, but I just don’t see it happening.  Why Marla? Well, see below.

Table 3 Week 2

As you can see, both Kim and Antonio only need about 4,500 votes per million votes cast to get past Nyle, Von, Marla or Doug. That is chump change and I think of those four, Kim and Antonio get past Marla fairly easily. Which would leave Marla and Mischa in the bottom.

But Mischa still would have to get more than 22.5k votes per million votes cast to beat Marla and I would be utterly stunned if that happens.  I think they will put Marla and Doug in jeopardy with Mischa and Mischa will ultimately go home. I do hope the poor thing goes out on a high.

More interesting to me is: what happens after this Monday?

I would guess that Marla would be next, with Doug possible – unless Karina choreographs another strong dance for him. I’d watch out for Doug if I were the other contestants. Karina showed this past Monday that she can craft a dance for him that he can handle and look good. You don’t have to be a choreographic genius – you just have to serve your celebrity well. Karina is one of the pros doing that, along with Mark, Lindsay, Peta and Sasha. I think that Keo is starting to show some promise. I think the rest of them need to up their freakin’ game. Derek is GONE. You have no excuses for not shining and making your celeb shine. No more whining about Derek. It’s all on YOU now. Get it together.

Unfortunately, a couple seem to have taken Derek’s absence as an excuse to relax and not strive for even better dances. What is with that? Is it a lack of creativity? Are there other issues? What? If they are doing what Derek did (pre-Season 15) back in the day and holding their choreo in their pocket and creating an upward trajectory – big mistake. There are too many big names/talented celebs in this group. You can’t afford to slack off.

Besides all that, you are on the verge of BORING me. There is literally nothing worse I can say to a choreographer. Yes, I am a Derek fan and his dances are routinely amazing. There are a few from last season that I could see getting Emmy nominations. So yes, my standards are high. But there is NO reason why these choreographers can’t work and learn and bust out some amazing dances. None. Derek, the guy who isn’t on the show this season, is apparently taking Flamenco lessons. It’s about growth and constantly learning new things. LEARN from him. PLEASE. It’s for your own good.

Amazing choreo on this silly show leads to bigger and amazing opportunities. And Emmys.