Dancing with the Stars Season 22, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, we sadly all called Mischa’s elimination – it was a bit of a no-brainer when looking at the numbers.

But what now? Very tough call.

When I look at the numbers on weeks like this one and I have to wonder if it’s all planned in advance. I mean, really – the three football players tied at the bottom?? I have a hard time with “coincidences” like this. But then you look at the cast as a whole and you realize that maybe all is how it should be. Personally, I think Kim’s dance was a bit safe and probably not worthy of a 22, as much as I love her and Sasha both. I also don’t think that Jodie danced at the same level as Paige – but I get that Paige may have gotten docked for lack of content.

Marla and Ginger are also tied and I actually agree with this one. Marla has a bit of a timing problem, but Tony is actually doing a pretty good job with her. She wasn’t as soft as she was in weeks past. Ginger I just plain feel sorry for – her choreographer is NOT serving her well. Who was it that said it was contemporary by the numbers?? Yeesh. And YES, I know that Val didn’t choreograph it – but perhaps he should step away from Jenna and on to an actual contemporary choreographer. Doesn’t he know any? Is this what happens when you stick exclusively to the Fam?? Ya know, the very worst thing I can say about a couple on this show is that they’re boring – and unfortunately, Ginger ain’t the only one. Anyway, here are the scores and the percentages:

DWTS 22 Wk 3 Table 1

And now I confess – I just don’t know what to do with these numbers. 🙂

It should be an easy assumption that Doug is out, right? He’s next on “the list” that the judges probably have, but I’m just not so sure. And here’s why:

DWTS 22 Wk 3 Table 2

Doug needs barely 4,200 more votes per million votes cast than either Ginger or Marla. And to top it off, he needs less than 8,500 more votes per million votes cast than Kim. If he gets ANY of those things, he’s safe. Yeah, he only needs one more vote than either Von or Antonio, but I don’t think we’re there yet. I’m not convinced that either of those two will make the finale, but I don’t get the sense that Doug will be the one taking them out.

So the question is: does Doug have the juice to beat Ginger, Marla or Kim?? I have no clue.  So, I go and look at the running order. Well, all but Ginger had crap running order.  :::sigh::: No help. Next, who was in jeopardy – only Doug.  The thing you have to remember about jeopardy is that it’s only a predictor about half the time. The other half it’s just BS.

If Doug were to beat any of the ladies I would normally think it would be Ginger. She is certainly less well known than either Marla or Kim…or should I say that the typical DWTS viewer is likely to have more history with both Kim and Marla, and therefore more nostalgia…making them more likely to get votes. But Ginger has Val. He may not have millions of followers, but his fans are zealots.  Unfortunately, I don’t think Tony or Sasha can say the same. This kinda levels the playing field between Ginger, Kim and Marla.

Which dances had an emotional impact? I have to give the advantage to Kim and Doug in this respect. Doug made me cry and Kim made me smile…Marla and Ginger made me say, “Oh. That’s nice.” Not exactly ringing endorsements, although I thought Marla did a better job than in previous weeks.

You see why I’m having problems? I can see problems/advantages with ALL the couples in the bottom half of the leaderboard. So, based purely on emotion, let’s say that Doug gets the votes to get past either Ginger or Marla – what do they have to do to be safe?

DWTS 22 Wk 3 Table 3

Oh geez. Not very much. Around 4,200 votes to get past Kim and around 8,500 to get past either Jodie or Paige. My brain hurts.

Okay, let’s approach this from a different angle. Who is most certainly SAFE this week? I think that Von, Antonio, Nyle and Wanya are definitely safe. That brings us down to Jodie and Paige. I’m going to say that Jodie is safe for now, based entirely on Fuller House and the fact that she is tied with Paige who likely has a much smaller fanbase.  And that’s pretty much the ONLY reason. Jodie was in jeopardy this week which could be a signal that she’s not getting the votes they would expect or want her to get.  But she only needs one more vote than Paige and based on that, I’m going to call her safe. Paige is the better dancer, and is getting better, more exciting choreography from Mark. If Paige pulls ahead in scores in coming weeks, Jodie is no longer so safe.

Okay, so let’s focus on Paige for a moment:

DWTS 22 Wk 3 Table 4

As you can see, Paige needs very few votes to get ahead of either Nyle or Wanya but I don’t see that happening, so it’s more about the people below her and if they are getting the votes to get past her. In a nutshell, for Paige to be safe she needs ONE of the following to happen:

  • Paige needs for Jodie to NOT get one more vote per Million votes cast, OR;
  • Paige needs for Kim to NOT get 4,220 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Paige needs for either Marla or Ginger to NOT get 8,500 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • Paige needs for Von, Doug OR Antonio to NOT get 12.7k more votes per million votes cast than her.

These are not big numbers and they make me a bit nervous. I think Paige is getting a lot of votes from Derek fans, although I doubt very much they are voting at full power. But some is better than none. It’s very possible she’s getting that one vote over Jodie, but right now I doubt it. Kim? Kim might be getting the votes to get past Paige – tough call (and she might also benefit from Derek’s absence, thanks to Sasha). I don’t think that Marla is getting the votes to get past Paige. I don’t think that Marla is a dynamic enough of a dancer and I don’t think that being the *ex*wife of the Donald is really going to get her that much.

My thought is that Nyle, Wanya, Antonio and Von may be getting the bulk of the votes – the first two from the general audience, the latter two from the football fans. That leaves the rest of the cast and there may not be much difference in the votes they are getting. That means that even the small margins might be hard to overcome.  For that reason, and for the fact that I don’t think that Marla or Doug are getting past her margins, I’m going to guess that Paige is safe for another week. She moved from the crap slots in the dance order, to the top of the second hour – a good sign. If she keeps the standard high, and Mark keeps the choreography good and memorable, then she can gain new fans. I think she just needs a bit of time.

That brings us back to Kim, Ginger, Marla and Doug as the people likely in some danger. I honestly can’t point at anyone in the cast as safe for sure except my bulk vote getters (Nyle, Wanya, Antonio and Von) – and that’s totally temporary. As the level of difficulty in the dances increases, one or more of those four might find themselves in danger.

Anyway, these four – Kim, Ginger, Marla and Doug – are the people in the most trouble this week.  And looking at those four, my gut says it will come down to Marla and Doug. I would be very surprised if Ginger were to be eliminated this week – I cannot say the same for Kim. It wouldn’t surprise me. That said, I think it will be either Marla or Doug.

I think it will be Marla, actually. My gut is telling me that they double jeopardy plus the emotional dance MIGHT have saved Doug this week.  The number 4,220 is just SO tiny and his dance had more impact than hers did. Yes, both had crap spots in the running order, but I think Doug is slightly better off.  I also think his status as a footballer might provide him some votes from the older demographic that watches this show.

Either way, I won’t be surprised, but I will be a tad unhappy. I like both of them and I could certainly name at least three other dancers I would rather be eliminated Monday.

How about ya’ll??