Dancing with the Stars Season 22, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers
There is SO much I could say about the scoring this past week on DWTS – so much BS, so little time. It’s already been mostly said, no need to go over it again. Ridiculous.
Ridiculous scoring leads to problematic leader boards! I think it’s very unlikely that there will be an elimination this week, what with the switchup and all – they’ve not done one to date, I see no reason to change now, UNLESS they have succeeded in getting rid of Doug. If it’s mission accomplished, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do one. But I am working under the assumption there won’t be one. Here are the numbers from Week 4:
As you can see, pretty big disparity between Doug, Jodie and the rest of the cast. Certainly both Doug and Jodie had issues with their dances this week, but that disparity is ridiculously huge. Protecting Antonio and others at Doug’s expense. How ridiculous??
My basic reason for doing this post this week is so that you all can see what the judges have done with this scoring. They’ve made it VERY difficult for anyone other than either Doug or Jodie to go home. Those numbers are just too huge. The problem with this is that Jodie has been in jeopardy twice in a row. That may not be a coincidence. Once can be brushed off as the producers screwing around. Twice often means they are trying to send a message. I don’t think they want her to go, and for that reason I don’t think they will change their ways and we won’t see an elimination on Monday. Let’s face it – Doug only needs 9,500 votes per million votes cast to get past Jodie. Not that hard of a number for a guy who has survived being on the bottom of the leader board a few times now!
But, most likely, the scores above will be added to next weeks scores (switch up week) and the combined weeks 4 and 5 will determine who is eliminated in week 6. Let’s just take a brief look at what they could do and how the voting totals could change by adding another week of Scores. Here is my guess at the scores:
The big guess is that Jodie will do very well with Val (and Maks will be there to hand out a 10). Jodie doing well could very well mean the end of Doug if everyone else does pretty well. You can even up Doug’s score by four points and he still has a tough row to hoe. This is just an example of what could happen, keep in mind.
In this scenario, Doug needs close to 20k votes per million votes cast to stay over Jodie or Kim. And if anyone is in trouble other than Doug, it’s very possibly Kim. Right now, with just the week 4 scores, Kim is fairly insulated. Doug needs about 25k to get past her and Jodie needs about 15k – now, who knows how well Doug is really doing, he didn’t have to work that hard to beat a margin last week. He could be getting that 25k. But Jodie? I doubt she’s getting the 15 to beat Kim in the week 4 only scenario. If she were doing that well, I don’t think they would have put her in jeopardy two weeks in a row.
That could all change. If it works out like I suspect it might (Table 4) – given that Kim has Keo doing a V. Waltz and Jodie has Val, who can do a good Paso if motivated, it appears to be stacked in Jodie’s favor. If Kim ends up tied or close to tied with Jodie, then it becomes a question of which woman is getting the votes. Both are with pros that have questionable fanbases – Sasha may be picking up some Derek voters, but I would bet the bulk of those are going with Mark. But odds are REALLY stacked against Doug. I have a hard time believing they will give him anything higher than a 28, in which case someone would have to seriously fail on Monday to be at risk against him.
Unless he’s really killing it in votes. That will likely be determined, come Monday. 🙂
Yeah after that bad edit, not a great performance, and the gap – right now I’d lay money on Doug going home, even combining next week’s scores.
Biggest concern (as usual this season, I am beginning to sound like a broken record) is Kim and Keo. I hope for BOTH of their sake that they have a great showing. Keo is still shaky to me, and Kim is the least-experienced of the female dancers. I hope I’m wrong, but his track record isn’t great.
Yeah after that bad edit, not a great performance, and the gap – right now I’d lay money on Doug going home, even combining next week’s scores.
Biggest concern (as usual this season, I am beginning to sound like a broken record) is Kim and Keo. I hope for BOTH of their sake that they have a great showing. Keo is still shaky to me, and Kim is the least-experienced of the female dancers. I hope I’m wrong, but his track record isn’t great.
Interesting as always. I agree with your score estimates for week 5 too. True, if Doug makes it past this week we’ll know that A LOT of people in addition to me are voting for him. I also agree, so much protection for Ginger, smh so that Jodie and Kim are next in line for danger.
Sasha is getting the Emma vote, all her hardcore fans are voting for Sasha. She’s campaign for then as well.
I hope Doug makes it. Peta got a good tango out of Tommy Chong but they loved having him on. IMO Doug is more likeable and relatable than Antonio and to a degree Von. He’s throwing their game plan off. But they will low score him and then his fans will blame Peta even though his scores are low with Karina. I’d rather Ginger leave. She’s so meh to me.
Karina said she thinks Doug would excel at a cha-cha or the rumba which he hasn’t danced, yet. Hope he has a chance to shine before he’s eliminated probably next. In terms of Mr. all-American pride as a sports legend & giving back (w/ autisim awareness), Doug has it over the reality TV stars, boy band singer & the male model…but even w/ his stronger fame, it’s hard to surpass those 6’s from the judges last week. Shame bc/ it’s fun watching a non-natural dancer try his best & compete, plus I love Karina & want to see her showcase her talent.
Do you think they will do a double elimination the week after next – if they do not do the elimination this coming Monday? I saw a post circulating on FB from Tom Brady and he was throwing out support for Doug…..showing an old Wheaties box with Doug on it. I’m not sure how much that will help, but it certainly cannot hurt. I think Doug is likely in trouble, but also believe he is getting more votes than Jodie and maybe Kim. If they do not do a double elimination, he may very well be safe (depending on the scoring next week).
Er, I love Emma, but if there was enough of an “Emma vote” to matter, she would still be a pro. Sad to say it, but her fanbase ain’t close to having the impact that Derek’s can, if properly motivated.
Excellent once again, Heidi! I think you are right. It’s between Jody and Doug. I’m hoping Doug can make it over Jody.
It’s funny how at the beginning of the season we thought Jodie was going to be someone who was going to slay it every week, but it seems to be the complete opposite. I’m not sure if that’s because of her pro or because of lack of confidence,
I’m thinking they might actually have an elimination next week because if they don’t and it’s a three-person finale (and I believe I heard it is) they’ll have to eliminated six couples in four weeks. And that elimination will be Doug or a “shock” boot of Jodie after a wildly praised (deservedly or not) dance with the Judge’s Pet. I think Doug being called safe early and not being “in jeopardy” for the first time actually may have been a bit of a disadvantage for him this week, since Jodie was there and that usually lights the fire for fans to vote. Also he didn’t have a very large margin to overcome to be safe last week (I think he was one point behind Marla on Week 3, right?) but he could still be getting a ton of votes!
I think Kim could also be in danger for a Week 6 elimination (whether there is one Monday or not) because the style she got for switch-up doesn’t seem very suiting to a couple with a big height gap.
Why won’t DWTS let the voters see how they’ve voted? That’s the only way I’ll believe our votes actually matter.
Sandy (#7), Interesting thought that TPTB might pull out the ol’ double-elim. I wouldn’t put it past them if Doug is 2nd from the bottom and Jodie or Kim are the bottom. They see those three as completely expendable cannon fodder. So if they need to lose one of the women a week early to get rid of Doug, I think they’d do it. The only reason they might hold off and stick with a single elimination in that scenario (even if it means keeping Doug) is if they’re worried about Ginger and need someone to throw under the bus to saver her the following week.
I’m predicting if there IS a double elimination (which there will have to be at least one of at some point regardless of if it will be a 3- or 4-couple finale unless they cut someone on Monday) it won’t be until Week 7 or later, unless they want things to be uneven for the team dance round like in Season 18. If they do an elimination on Monday they’ll probably do team dances Week 6 and if not then Week 7 with either 4 couples vs 4 couples or 4 vs 3.
It’s been uneven in the team dances more than just Season 18. I don’t think they care about that.
Thanks for the numbers, PH! It frustrates me how TPTB can manipulate the outcome with Doug, Jody, Kim and even Ginger just by what switch-up partner they give them, what dance they get and when they do an elimination. Put Maks as a judge on top of that and my blood is boiling!
I’m not sure if they’re manipulating the outcome through the switchup partners (although they certainly appear to have done so in seasons past), but it seems likely that those who need benefits get them.
I never understood not doing an elimination the week of switch-up. I know they dance with someone else during the show, but the elimination would be based on the week before when they are with their normal partners. Have everyone dance with their new partners and then put the couples back together at the end of the show for the elimination. Unless I’m missing something?
Either way, I think on paper it’s Doug but I actually wonder if he’s getting more votes than I think. He’s like the “dad” of the season.
Mods … Do we have any idea how many votes are cast for average weekly show? I always wonder that when I read the phrase “x votes per million cast” in your posts. So, for an average week, roughly how many million votes are cast? Thanks for the great work in keeping us informed & entertained!
We don’t know, Karen. If we did, we could do the numbers with a lot more certainty. The reason why we do the “per million” thing is because it’s really the only way to come up with any number at all.
I feel that if Antonio is not putting in the rehearsal time and his social media and “getting things done” is so important to him, then cut the chord and get him out. Yes, the next elimination is probably going to be between Doug and Jodie, but I’d rather Antonio leave before either of them. They both truly want to be there, have great attitudes and work at it. Putting in less rehearsal time in a WEEK that the others do in TWO days is ridiculous. I said it week one, Antonio loves Antonio. So there’s one less football player. I would love to see it happen.
I’m predicting no elimination next week followed by a double elimination the week after, with Doug and Kim going home. Jodie will get high enough scores on the switch to save her for now.
The press releases on “Broadway World” and such usually always mention “someone will go home at the end of the night” and the one for Week 5 doesn’t mention that so I’m gonna guess there’s no elimination on Monday.
If there was, my money would be on either Doug or Jodie (mostly Doug).