Dancing with the Stars Season 22, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

There is SO much I could say about the scoring this past week on DWTS – so much BS, so little time. It’s already been mostly said, no need to go over it again. Ridiculous.

Ridiculous scoring leads to problematic leader boards! I think it’s very unlikely that there will be an elimination this week, what with the switchup and all – they’ve not done one to date, I see no reason to change now, UNLESS they have succeeded in getting rid of Doug. If it’s mission accomplished, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do one. But I am working under the assumption there won’t be one. Here are the numbers from Week 4:

DWTS 22 Wk 4 Table 1

As you can see, pretty big disparity between Doug, Jodie and the rest of the cast. Certainly both Doug and Jodie had issues with their dances this week, but that disparity is ridiculously huge. Protecting Antonio and others at Doug’s expense. How ridiculous??

DWTS 22 Wk 4 Table 2

My basic reason for doing this post this week is so that you all can see what the judges have done with this scoring. They’ve made it VERY difficult for anyone other than either Doug or Jodie to go home. Those numbers are just too huge. The problem with this is that Jodie has been in jeopardy twice in a row. That may not be a coincidence. Once can be brushed off as the producers screwing around. Twice often means they are trying to send a message. I don’t think they want her to go, and for that reason I don’t think they will change their ways and we won’t see an elimination on Monday. Let’s face it – Doug only needs 9,500 votes per million votes cast to get past Jodie. Not that hard of a number for a guy who has survived being on the bottom of the leader board a few times now!

But, most likely, the scores above will be added to next weeks scores (switch up week) and the combined weeks 4 and 5 will determine who is eliminated in week 6. Let’s just take a brief look at what they could do and how the voting totals could change by adding another week of Scores. Here is my guess at the scores:

DWTS 22 Wk 4 Table 3

The big guess is that Jodie will do very well with Val (and Maks will be there to hand out a 10). Jodie doing well could very well mean the end of Doug if everyone else does pretty well. You can even up Doug’s score by four points and he still has a tough row to hoe. This is just an example of what could happen, keep in mind.

DWTS 22 Wk 4 Table 4

In this scenario, Doug needs close to 20k votes per million votes cast to stay over Jodie or Kim. And if anyone is in trouble other than Doug, it’s very possibly Kim. Right now, with just the week 4 scores, Kim is fairly insulated. Doug needs about 25k to get past her and Jodie needs about 15k – now, who knows how well Doug is really doing, he didn’t have to work that hard to beat a margin last week. He could be getting that 25k. But Jodie? I doubt she’s getting the 15 to beat Kim in the week 4 only scenario. If she were doing that well, I don’t think they would have put her in jeopardy two weeks in a row.

That could all change. If it works out like I suspect it might (Table 4) – given that Kim has Keo doing a V. Waltz and Jodie has Val, who can do a good Paso if motivated, it appears to be stacked in Jodie’s favor. If Kim ends up tied or close to tied with Jodie, then it becomes a question of which woman is getting the votes. Both are with pros that have questionable fanbases – Sasha may be picking up some Derek voters, but I would bet the bulk of those are going with Mark. But odds are REALLY stacked against Doug. I have a hard time believing they will give him anything higher than a 28, in which case someone would have to seriously fail on Monday to be at risk against him.

Unless he’s really killing it in votes. That will likely be determined, come Monday. 🙂