DWTS Season 22, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

It is weeks like this where I seriously consider not watching this show any more. To make matters worse, this season follows a season like the one we had with Bindi. Good lord, I’m not even sure where to start.

If I weren’t so lazy, I would go back and dig up half a dozen videos of CAI and the other bozos saying stuff like “You screwed up your footwork, but I don’t care!!” and then rewarding them with a 9 or a 10. I’m positive there’s a video out there of CAI commenting on how a dance was so entertaining she had to reward it with a high score, even though there was a slip up, or a lift, or some other issue. This is where they really pull back the curtain and you see it’s just an old dude at the controls and not some magical wizard – the manipulation is clear. Yeah, Wanya screwed up. But I would be WAY MORE okay with his scores if I wasn’t positive that worse dancing has been given higher scores when the dancer is one of the chosen.  But Wanya isn’t one of the chosen. He gets the Bethany tone of voice along with the Nastia packages. I said it back when Bethany was on the show – just watch CAI’s body language and listen to her tone of voice when she’s talking to either Bethany or Wanya. It like they committed a capital offense. It’s all designed to show or imply to the viewer that the recipient just ain’t all that and they don’t deserve your votes. Bitch please. You aren’t in a position to be that condescending – you won the night in the Team dance, but that bar was pretty low.

And that clown Antonio is worthy of ass kissing and high scores despite the fact that he’s barely rehearsed until recently and threw Sharna under a bus? Yeah, not cool.  If he’d been killing himself in rehearsal all this time, I MIGHT have a different opinion – but we know that isn’t the case. And spare me on the “he has another job” bs. Wanya has been touring this whole time and CANCELLED stuff so that he could rehearse more.

Ya know, after giving it some thought – and thinking about how Derek would have gotten hosed for so blatantly repeating himself – I think Ginger benefits from low expectations of both Val and her dancing. (Likewise, Wanya…and Derek…often suffer from extremely HIGH expectations). They really don’t expect too much, so when she pulls out a good dance (that looks remarkably like all of Val’s other ATs) which is nothing special – they rave. I’m sure the fact that she’s an ABC employee has nothing to do with it. *snort* And I’ve got some swamp land in Florida I could sell you…actually, the worst thing I can say about Ginger is that I don’t REMEMBER her dances. I just remember being flabbergasted at the scores she continues to get.

Despite my disgust with the course of this show, I’m still somewhat convinced that the people in trouble this week aren’t male. But it could be a close thing. Take a look at the scores.

DWTS22 Wk 8 Table 1

In no universe should Ginger be in first place in the 8th week of competition. Just no. Mark is giving Paige far more challenging choreo and she’s still out dancing Ginger.  I do think they also need to get a bit more real with Nyle (or maybe they aren’t bothering because he’s running away with it). Dude still has posture problems and he looked weird in hold – definitely not a dance that should have gotten a higher score than Paige. And yet Paige – the best dancer this season – is in third place after no real noticeable errors or issues. It’s nonsense. :::sigh:::

Welp, anyway. I have no idea what’s going to happen with this double elimination. My gut kinda tells me that Paige and Wanya are toast, but that could well be my pessimist side trying to gain dominance. 🙂  What’s Wanya gotta do?

DWTS22 Wk 8 Table 2

When I look at all the couples as a whole and see what they all need to be safe I’m just not so sure that Wanya is the one with the problem.  Everything kinda hinges on how freaked out his fans were when he not only landed at the bottom of the leaderboard, but was put in jeopardy.  He needs less than 6k votes to get past Antonio and less than 9k to get past Paige. Unfortunately for Paige, I think he gets past her due to the two things I mention above – low score and jeopardy.

Normally, this is when I would say “Antonio? Who cares if Wanya gets past him, he only needs to get past one to be safe.” Not true this week. This week you gotta stay out of the bottom two completely because those two are going home. So, Wanya needs TWO of the follow things to happen to be safe this week:

  • He needs to get 5,900 more votes per million votes cast than Antonio, AND/OR;
  • He needs to get 8,800 more votes per million votes cast than Paige, AND/OR;
  • He needs to get 11,700 more votes per million votes cast than Nyle, AND/OR;
  • He needs to get 14,600 more votes per million votes cast than Ginger.

I already mentioned that I thought he was getting past Paige. But who else?? Maybe Antonio – that would certainly be the easiest, but we don’t actually know how Steeler Nation is doing. I tend to think that the fear of God/lack of arrogance that Wanya’s fans seem to have might have done the trick. But if not? Ginger could be in trouble. I wager the only reason that she’s at the top of the leaderboard is because she’s just not killing it in votes. We’ve seen that happen many, many times.  I think the judges are protecting her and hoping to get rid of Wanya – based on the attitudes and tones of voice at the judges table where Wanya is concerned versus Ginger.

At the end of the day, I think Nyle is safe for sure, and I think that Wanya gets past Paige, Ginger, and MAYBE Antonio. Not sure on that last one, but if I’m right about the first two it doesn’t matter. Give me a minute and I’ll change my mind. 🙂 Speaking of Antonio…

DWTS22 Wk 8 Table 3

As you can see, Steeler Nation could be a nation of total idjits and still get past the three people above him on the leader board. TINY margins. Tiny. Even if Wanya gets past Antonio, I doubt he has any trouble getting past Paige or Ginger. See where I’m headed with this travesty??

Paige/Mark fans really need to hope that there is just no love for Antonio in the vast majority of Steeler Nation. I think it will be a near thing. Those numbers are so small, it just makes it too easy for Antonio – unfortunately.  I have to believe that he is safe, based on those numbers. He may not over take Nyle, but I think that he can take the two women. But I’m not ready to call him safe just yet. Let’s look at the rest of the board.

DWTS22 Wk 8 Table 4

:::sigh::: Well, you tell me?  I think Paige beats Ginger. But she needs TWO things working in her favor. If she, by some miracle is getting the 3k to get past Nyle (hey, it’s not that many votes and his dance wasn’t all that), then that makes Paige safe and puts it back on either Wanya or Antonio.  Most likely Wanya.  But I get ahead of myself. What does Paige need to be safe? TWO of the following:

  • She needs for Wanya to NOT get 8,800 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • She needs for Antonio to NOT get the 3k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • She needs to get 3k more votes per million votes cast than Nyle, AND/OR;
  • She needs to get 5,900 more votes per million votes cast than Ginger.

See why this is a tough one? The difference between her being safe and eliminated literally comes down to 3,000 votes per million votes cast. That is nothing.

Okay, so I’m calling Nyle safe – I think that’s a given when nothing else is. So, now I’ll skip to Ginger. For Ginger to be safe she needs for TWO people to NOT cover the spread. That means she needs:

  • Wanya to not get 14,600 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Antonio to not get 8,800 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Paige to not get 5,900 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Nyle to not get the 3,000 more votes per million votes cast than her.

Now, if none of those things happen, she’s fine. But I think at least two of them will happen.  I think Nyle and Paige get the votes to pass her. That leaves her with Wanya and Antonio. Antonio is a yes, IMO which puts Ginger in the bottom two. The only question is with who.

This is where it gets really complicated and I’ll try to explain it best I can – I’m a more intuitive math person than anything. The question is back to Wanya. I think Ginger is bottom two, but if Wanya gets the 14,600 more votes per million votes cast than her and she’s low woman on the totem pole, who’s there with her? If Wanya DOESN’T get the 14.6k votes, then he’s there with her unless he passes one of the other two.  I think he passes Paige, at least, so Wanya would be safe.

Which means that Paige and Ginger would be bottom two. Unless Paige gets past another person besides Ginger (this is all assuming that Ginger is the person at the very bottom which might not be true – just trying to explain how hard it is to make a guess).

Put a different way…

  • I think Nyle beats at least Ginger and Antonio, so he’s safe.
  • I think Antonio beats Paige and Ginger, so he’s safe.
  • I think Paige beats Ginger…not sure on anything else.
  • I think Wanya beats at least Antonio…not sure on anything else.
  • I think that at least three of the four people below Ginger on the leader board beat her.

What this means is that I think Ginger will be eliminated and she’ll take either Paige or Wanya with her. It’s all because of the double elimination – if not for that, I’m not at all sure Ginger would be leaving. But with the double I can look at the board and see at least three who could take her out.

Paige and Wanya are more difficult to determine because they’re in a pack and we don’t know how anyone is doing. I’m more inclined to think Paige is leaving with Ginger because of the same reason I think Ginger is leaving – I can look at the board and I think the other three are beating her.

But I would not be surprised if it were any combination of the five except for Nyle – Nyle would surprise me, when nothing else would.

I’ve had a great track record this season – I think I was only half wrong last week. Was right every other time. I hope like HELL I’m wrong this time. Well…I hope I’m HALF wrong. 😉