Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I think I made most of my impressions pretty clear in the Live Blog for Week 1.  Sometimes they change over the course of the week and upon rewatching the show, but since I was away from home for more than 10 days, including last Monday night, I haven’t had a chance to rewatch.  Maybe next week.

Since there is a results show this Tuesday night, I assume that no one is eliminated until Tuesday. Is this an assumption?…runs to check the press release…okay, the press release said that the first elimination is on Tuesday night and is based on week 1 and week 2 scores and votes.  Of course, this means that this calculation of the numbers is only to show the standings (and my thoughts on who would go home) of week 1 only. I’ll have to do a quick DBTN update on Monday night to see if my thoughts on who’s leaving change based on Monday’s dances.  I love my sleep these days, so when there’s a results show it usually means a late night…for me and Courtney both. Anyway, look for the DBTN update at about 2 pm Eastern on Tuesday.  Courtney’s power rankings typically go up after the show or first thing Tuesday morning. When there is no results show, Courtney’s power rankings will go up on Tuesday and I shoot for Thursday. SHOOT FOR…I don’t always make it. 🙂 If you missed Court’s power rankings this week, just click the link to read them…when you’re done here. 😉

Anyway, here are the current standings and percentages:

dwts-23-wk-1-table-1

Look at all the pairs!! One has to wonder if they plan this or if it happens organically…I don’t think anything happens organically on this show anymore, but I’m the cynic in the group.  Anyway, I think the bottom half contestants could all be in danger, theoretically, and I think the top half (from Babyface and up) are likely safe for this week, barring a disastrous dance and bad scores on Monday night. Something to remember: it’s week 1 – often we see someone in the top half take a plunge because suddenly they don’t have 2 to 3 weeks to prepare a dance and/or they’re no longer in their wheelhouse. I’m looking at Vanilla Ice (LOVED his dance…but was it a fluke?), Hinch (I *think* he’ll be fine) and Calvin to see if they get better or worse this week. I also think it’s possible that now that the first week is done we might see improvement in certain areas – like Amber, Marilu, Jana and maybe even Maureen.  It all hinges on what their pros do, really. Maks was dragging Amber too much – I think he needs to focus on what she can do and not just what he wants her to do. Derek? This is usually where he’s genius – of all the pros, he recognizes the strengths and weaknesses of his partner the best and works with what he has.  Gleb – he’s got a decent partner in Jana, he needs to learn to balance content with flash or sexy. He can’t afford to have Len down on him every week. Learn to play this game, Gleb – I feel fairly confident he can do it.  Maureen is one I worry about. Artem’s history on this show is not a good one and he’s not shown that he will work hard when he figures he doesn’t have a shot to win.  Perhaps he’ll prove me wrong – I hope so, because I really like Maureen a lot.

Also really curious to see how Ryan does – Cheryl Burke (especially a Cheryl who’s had a break and is re-invested) is a damn good pro. She’s tough, she’s a good choreographer and she’s a good teacher. If Ryan is still invested and not discouraged (and I think she can get him there), he could go a long way. And he should thank those idiotic protesters too. Humiliate someone in a very public way and you’ll find that the exact opposite of what you want to happen, happens. People get behind him. And people love an underdog. I think it’s an American trait, although I could be wrong. We’re so damn quick to judge and condemn someone – but public humiliation? Lots of people don’t react well to that. I would bet the protest bought him more weeks than anyone will realize.

Anyway, I digress. It happens. We see Rick Perry at the very bottom of the leaderboard. I liked Rick…then I watched Bill Maher on HBO this morning and he reminded me of a lot of things I had forgotten. 🙂 Yes, DWTS made Bill Maher. Sorry Rick. Not a fan, dude. But you’re pretty harmless these days. All that said, plenty of people like Rick and I doubt he’ll go home this week. What does he need to be safe?

dwts-23-wk-1-table-2

For you newbs out there, the column called “Votes Needed Per Million” represents the number of votes per million votes cast that the lower scoring couple in the “Dancer Comparison” column needs to be safe over the higher scoring couple. As you know, the person with the lowest combined score and viewer votes (each counts for half their total score) is the one who goes home. I do this post to calculate the votes needed based on the scores as a way to *guess* who I think is most likely to go home.

In the table above, for example, Rick needs ONE of the following things to happen in order to be safe this week (pretending there is an elimination on Monday):

  • Rick needs to get at least 6,062 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Jake or Maureen, OR;
  • Rick needs to get at least 12,122 more votes per million than either Amber or Ryan, OR;
  • Rick needs to get at least 15,153 more votes per million than either Vanilla or Terra, OR;
  • Rick needs to get at least 18,183 more votes per million than either Babyface or Calvin, OR;
  • Rick needs to get at least 21,213 more votes per million than either Jana or Marilu, OR;
  • Rick needs to get at least 33,333 more votes per millon than either Laurie or James.

Now, the above is the actual numbers. Going forward you will see me round up and be approximate and only post the table for the sake of brevity and laziness.  I also normally won’t post the comparisons for every dancer – only those I think could be in danger.

Personally, based on his pro and his standing, I think that Rick will be safe – I think he can get past Jake, but possibly not Maureen. He only needs to do better than ONE celebrity.  And I think the two in the most danger of getting beaten by Rick are Jake and Terra. Jake is obvious – Rick only needs about 6.1k more votes per million than him –that’s a pretty tiny number. Why Terra and not Maureen? Well, Maureen is from an iconic TV show and she’s right in the wheelhouse of the main viewing demographic of the show.  Terra isn’t and she has a fairly new pro. But lets’ look at their numbers…

dwts-23-wk-1-table-3

This table is the reason why Jake, despite his teenybopper fanbase, is in trouble – he’s surrounded by people who are just unlikely to be the first out of the season. Amber isn’t well known, but she’s dancing with Maks – and I imagine his fans are NOT going to let him be the first out of the season. So, while Rick only needs 6.1k to get past Jake and Jake only needs 6.1k to get past either Amber or Ryan, I’m just not thinking it’s going to happen. Amber is with Maks, Ryan is with Cheryl – these pros are back for a REASON.

So, I think that Rick is safe because he can beat Jake, and Maureen is safe because she’s Maureen (and she only needs one more vote than Jake), and I don’t think that Jake will beat either Amber or Ryan because of their pros…and that brings us to Terra.

Is Terra legit in danger?  Let’s look at this in a slightly different way.

dwts-23-wk-1-table-4

Above are the next two groups of comparisons. You’ll see that both Amber and Ryan only need about 3k votes to beat either Terra or Vanilla – that’s nothing. So, combine the fact that Amber and Ryan are dancing with Maks and Cheryl with the very low number of votes they need to beat Terra and Vanilla and I think it’s safe to say that those two are going to be safe.  Vanilla only needs ONE vote to beat Terra and I think he can do that easily – very memorable performance and he’s again in the wheelhouse of the voting demo. Sort of.

So,  what does Terra need to be safe? She needs ONE of the following things to happen:

  • Terra needs for Rick to NOT get 15.2k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Terra needs for Jake OR Maureen to NOT get 9.1k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Terra needs for Amber OR Ryan to NOT get 3k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Terra needs ONE more vote per million votes cast than Vanilla Ice, OR;
  • Terra needs 3,031 more votes per million votes cast then either Babyface OR Calvin, OR;
  • Terra needs 6.1k more votes per million votes cast than either Jana or Marilu, OR;
  • Terra needs 18.2k more votes per million votes cast than either Laurie or James.

So, look at the above and ask yourself what is possible/likely.  Jake and Maureen could get the votes to beat Terra, but can Rick? That’s a tough one. I think Amber, Ryan and Vanilla Ice are all getting the votes to beat her and Terra isn’t beating anyone above her. That leaves us with Rick, Jake and Maureen. I think Maureen is going to be safe.

That leaves us with Terra, Jake and Rick. I’m guessing they will be the bottom three.  I tend to think that Rick can’t get the 15.2k votes to beat Terra, which would mean she was safe.

That brings us to Rick and Jake – can Rick get the votes to beat Jake? Well, I already said I think that he can. Which means that Jake would be eliminated.

Final guess: Jake would be eliminated IF there were an elimination on Monday night. Since there isn’t, there’s still time for him to change the game. Problem for him is, there’s time for EVERYONE to change their game. So, lose the smirk and try smiling – what you’re doing ain’t working for me.