Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, seems there was a bit of protective scoring going on – were we right to be worried about Terra? In any case, she did a great dance, she was just a bit overscored.

Unfortunately for Jake, Maureen had a good, nostalgic dance and Ryan overcame his protesters (and the heart shirts a bunch of people wore will likely touch hearts as well, and Amber is still dancing with Maks. I would be STUNNED if Maks were ever the first one out. Your pro won’t win you the show, but he should prevent you from being first out.

That still leaves us, more than ever, with Rick and Jake. You’ll remember that after last week, Jake was tied with Maureen and Terra was within striking distance. Where did we end up after two weeks of dancing?

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That’s a whole lotta points and it generally means the margins get smaller. No difference this time around.  Jake now has a lot more work to do to get past either Maureen or Terra.

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You see the margin has narrowed a bit between Rick and Jake, making it easier for Rick to get the votes to be safe. He also needs fewer votes to get past Amber, Maureen and Ryan – don’t know if he’s managing that, but he doesn’t have to. He only has to beat one person and I think it’s Jake.

But let’s take a quick look at how Jake is doing.

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Oh dear. Those judges being overly kind may have caused problems. See, Amber got the same score as last week and so did Ryan – but Jake got two more points, so that margin has narrowed pretty seriously – from 6k down to 3k.  that’s a big deal. Maureen is safer, but both Amber and Ryan are much less safe.

But, Amber and Ryan and dancing with Maks and Cheryl – I dunno, I think they are both good. If one were in danger it would be Amber…but I don’t think so. I tend to doubt that Amber, Maureen or Ryan are passing anyone above them either.

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So…Table 2 shows all the votes that Rick needs to be safe. I think that he’s at least getting past Jake.  I have a real hard time believing that Jake is getting past Maureen, Amber or Ryan, but I suppose it’s possible.

I think the bottom three in this scenario is probably Rick, Jake and either Amber or Maureen – probably Maureen.  But I think that the women pull it out and it will come down to Jake and Rick.

And even with these new numbers, my gut is telling me that Jake is the one going home tonight. He has a ton of twitter followers – but those don’t equal votes, especially when your fanbase is YOUNG. I could certainly be wrong, but Jake has a brand new pro plus he’s young – it’s the double whammy. Rick Perry’s fans are square in the Demo that watch this show, as are Maureen’s – plus Maureen had a good dance with Florence. Amber has Maks and I can’t believe his fans would let him go home first. Same goes for Cheryl, plus Ryan is an underdog right now.

So, I’m sticking with Jake. Honestly, I’ll be really surprised if it’s anyone other than Jake or Rick.

I had such a good record last season…let’s see if I still got it. 😉