Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers!

This was written during and after the first (HISTORIC) Presidential Debate. You’ve been warned. 🙂

I have a sniffing, loud guy in my ear, so I’m having a hard time concentrating, but how on earth is Terra two points ahead of Marilu?? This is a mystery to me. I think Marilu had a balance problem right at the beginning of her dance (she’s 64, after all), but that was a good dance. Then again, how did Laurie get a full three points more than her, lift and all?? And is that the first time Val’s ever actually been called on a lift? He’s done them before but I don’t remember him getting so nailed on it.

Anyway, I think Terra (and Laurie) did do a good job, I just don’t get the scoring two weeks in a row that insulates her. I’m afraid that once the people they want to leave, actually leave the scoring may change and that is fair to no one. It’s whiplash inducing for people who don’t know just how manipulated this show really is. 

Anyway, here’s how it stacks up for this week, with an elimination tomorrow night.


First I calculated it as if the scores that the immune folks had zero percent of the votes and let me tell you, the margins were huge. There was no way that either Marilu or Terra were in any danger. Then, I remember that they *claim* that it’s the “total points awarded” – so I added those points back in but only did the match ups for those without immunity. And it’s not so clear cut when I do that.

Now, as usual, Rick is on the bottom.

I have to apologize. I’m trying to write this during and after the most disastrous presidential debate in modern history and I’m seriously having trouble focusing on anything other than that. But I have to try to finish it because I know I won’t have time to do it tomorrow.

FOCUS, Heidi!! 🙂

Alright, can Rick overcome a fairly small deficit and be safe tomorrow? Don’t count Emma and a happy go lucky, funny guy (who also happens to be a conservative) out of this competition. Here’s where Rick stands.


Rick only needs about 6,200 more votes per million votes cast than either Amber, Babyface or Ryan. This is a REALLY tough call. ANY other season, when Maks (yes, Maks, not Amber), Babyface or Ryan weren’t involved, I would say that absolutely Rick would be safe. But we are talking about those three contestants and pros. My gut is telling me that Maks and Amber might be in trouble…or perhaps Babyface.  I just think that Rick is making a lot of hay with the audience. I’m dyed in the wool liberal and I like the hell out of the guy. That is extremely telling. I love Babyface, but he moved so small and really didn’t dance that well. Ryan was freakin’ hilarious in his package. Amber was somewhat forgettable. For that reason, I think it’s going to come down to Rick, Amber and Babyface.

But let’s say that Rick does managed to get the votes.  How are Ryan, Amber and Babyface doing?


Now, as you might remember if you’ve been reading these posts for a while, Rick, Amber and Babyface only need ONE more vote than each other – that sentence was horrible grammatically, but there you go. I’m in a haze of orange.  In this three way tie, I’m going to give it to Ryan who is still basking in the safety of public humiliation. If it’s between the three of them, I think that it will come down to Amber and Babyface with Amber winning out on the strength of Maks fanbase. If this turns out to be wrong, we’ll have to have another separate conversation about the strength of Maks’ fanbase. 😉

So, what happens at the end of the day? I think Marilu and Terra are safe. I’m still mystified by Terra’s scores, but it doesn’t matter yet. I really like Terra. She gets to the heart and she’s fun – and perhaps she’s getting the votes and that’s behind the judges scores. Or perhaps they just want her to survive the lesser dancers below her and Marilu. Who knows? I do think that Marilu gets the 6k plus to beat Terra if necessary based on her own demo and Derek’s fanbase.  But I don’t think Rick gets the 22k to beat Terra, and I don’t think that Amber, Rick or Babyface get the 15.4k votes to beat Terra.

That leaves us with Rick, Babyface, Amber and Ryan.  I think Ryan wins the three way tie between him, Amber and Babyface. That leaves us with Rick, Babyface and Amber.  My gut says that Amber/Maks beat out Babyface/Allison, which would leave us with Rick and Babyface…and this is one tough call.

Rick needs to get at least 6,160 more votes per million votes cast than Babyface. Can he do it? Well, let’s just say that I would not be at all surprised to see Rick called safe first tomorrow night. Marilu or Terra next.  I think it comes down to Rick, Babyface and Amber and that Babyface will end up leaving us tomorrow night.