Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!
Well, another night of crap ass scoring by judges who were having a hard time hiding their agenda. I mean what the hell was going on there? It’s almost like they got together before the show, had some wine and decided what scores they were going to hand out…and then several people over performed and didn’t match the low scores that were determined over drinks.
A huge problem with this show – HUGE – is the assigning of themes and dances. You give Laurie – the gymnast – a dance with few to no rules on a week where the theme whose middle name is “gymnastics”. Then you turn around and give EVERYONE else dances with very clear rules – and mark them down when they don’t execute. Of course Laurie got 10s – there was no way to “miss” a step, or have not enough body contact, or whatever. It’s ridiculous that you have couples dancing Jazz up against V.Waltz, Quickstep, Paso Doble and Tangos. Ridiculous. But worst of all, Val had a dance where anything goes, to an MJ song, with a 16 year old gymnast…and did we see anything close to what both Derek and Mark choreographed when they had partners with similar skill sets? Nope. Not even close. It’s a waste of a great partner.
:::sigh::: But why bother? I’m not the least bit surprised.
Anyway, I think Babyface is likely history and I’m thinking that Marilu will end up being safe. She and Calvin were both so underscored that I suspect they are getting the votes. I hope so, anyway. Here’s where the leaderboard was at the end of the night…and keep in mind tomorrow is a double elimination.
Why do I think Marilu will end up being safe? Well, there just aren’t many votes needed by her to get past someone that’s above her – and she has Derek, in addition to fitting squarely in the demo that watches this show. Question is, who’s the person who will go. First, Babyface:
As you can see, he has fairly sizable margins to overcome…and I don’t think he’s going to make it. Certainly not over Marilu or Calvin – and to be safe this week you have to do better than two people. I don’t think it’s happening.
How about Marilu? Smaller margins. If Babyface goes, she has to beat one person above her in order to be safe.
I kinda think she beats both Jana and Ryan. Not sure about Maureen and Amber – the judges overscored them so tremendously, they might have saved them. She could well beat both of them. It’s a tough call. But let’s say that she beats at least Ryan, since she only needs 3.9k more votes per million votes cast. That’s nothing! So, what does Ryan have to do?
I think Ryan beats Jana, Maureen and Amber. I know lots of people say they aren’t voting for him, but he’s really likable and those protesters did him a huge favor. I think he’s going to pull it out one more week.
So where does that leave us? Obviously, at the top of the leaderboard, James and Laurie are safe. I’m loving Terra and I doubt I’m the only one – I’m saying she’s safe, easily. I think Calvin has nothing to worry about. I’m a little nervous for Marilu, but I think she’s doing better than one or three people above her on the leaderboard. I think Ryan is safe because he’s also doing better than a couple people above him.
That leaves us with Babyface, V.Ice, Jana, Maureen and Amber. I think Babyface is going home. But who else? V.Ice, Jana and Calvin are in a three way tie which Calvin wins easily. I think V.Ice is getting the ONE vote more than Jana. If Babyface is going home, that would make V.Ice safe. So, that leaves us with Jana, Maureen and Amber.
Oy veh. This is a tough call I think. The question is – is Jana getting the 3.9k more votes per million votes cast than Maureen or Amber? I have no idea. And between Amber and Maureen, who’s getting the ONE vote? Dang. I think Amber gets the one vote thanks to her partner Maks and her faux controversy this week. If Babyface is eliminated, this makes Amber safe. Looking at it another way, Jana needs TWO of the following things to happen in order to be safe:
- Jana needs Babyface to NOT get the 19,200 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
- Jana needs Marilu to NOT get the 7,700 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
- Jana needs Ryan to NOT get the 3,900 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
- Jana needs ONE more vote per million votes cast than either V.Ice or Calvin, OR;
- Jana needs 3,900 more votes per million votes cast than either Amber or Maureen.
And so on. The problem is, I only see the first one happening. She might be beating Maureen. Which means Maureen would be eliminated. This is a really tough call. Let’s do the same thing for Maureen. Maureen needs TWO of the following things to happen in order to be safe:
- Maureen needs Babyface to not get the 23k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- Maureen needs Marilu to not get the 11.5k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- Maureen needs Ryan to NOT get the 7,700 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- Maureen needs Jana, V.Ice or Calvin to NOT get the 3,900 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- Maureen needs ONE more vote per million votes than Amber
Now, which two of those is happening? Babyface and…ah hell, I dunno and it’s late. I can’t decide if it’s going to be Jana, Maureen or Amber going home with Babyface.
My gut says maybe Maureen…but my gut is only batting 500 so far this season. 🙂
ETA: And my gut woke up this morning, re-read this post and started to think that Jana might be the one in trouble. So which gut will be right? Or will I drop to .333? 🙂
After Tom’s tweet I’m actually very worried for Terra tonight. Her fanbase going into this was questionable but what mainly matters is how the general DWTS audience reacts to the contestants. I think most of them like Terra but I wonder how many have actually been voting for her? I want to say she’s getting more votes than at least Ice, Maureen, Amber, and Jana, but not entirely sure about that especially after Tom’s warning about not voting.
Its been a while since you’ve had to do such a complicated numbers post Heidi, I can’t remember one in a long time. I’ve been waiting for it with anticipation.
Seeing the figures just puts it more into perspective for Babyface. Those numbers are huge, I just don’t think he stands out enough for it to happen, if say Ryan or Vanilla Ice were in his position I think they could have pulled it off but not him.
As for the other elimination, I’m confidently sticking with Maureen. Tom mentioned that there would be a “shock” elimination online and Maureen who finished joint 4th on the leaderboard would fit that bill to the general demographic who watch the show and have no idea what actually consists of a shock elimination. Like I said on the PR thread, she had the worst running order spot of the night and the worst package I’ve seen for a while. As we all know very well, a negative package can absolutely kill you when it comes to votes.
Amber had the publicity no matter how stupid it was and also has Maks so she should be fine for one more week.
I would pick Amber to leave.
After seeing that Tom tweet, I have a gut feeling that the show will end up pulling a Sabrina Bryan again.
My gut says Jana, too, PH. She’s been fine, but fairly unremarkable, and I’m not sure about the size of Gleb’s fan base that could help save her over a Derek, Sasha, Artem, etc.
But maybe that’s just oversimplifying it.
Babyface and Maureen and probably Terra if they wanna go that route as far as shocking goes. I feel a lot better about Marilu now.
Just as I was considering not watching tonight 🙂
I agree with everyone that Babyface is toast. He’s not the most compelling contestant, but he does have a charm about him and there are definitely some people I would prefer to leave over him. Allison holding back tears after that dance also killed me.
As for the second? Tom’s tweet is really interesting. I’m worried for Marilu bc I don’t think she’s making enough of an impact, but if the 2nd person is a surprise I can’t see Marilu going since she’s at the bottom of the leaderboard. That being said, Derek leaving this early would be a surprise. They got all my votes last night. I think if she had any partner other than Derek (and maybe Val) she would be in serious trouble.
I actually think its either Terra or Jana. Terra’s been scoring well all season, but I have no idea where her fanbase is at. I don’t really see anyone super gung-ho about this couple. Jana and Gleb have not been living up to their preseason hype and I’m not really sure where their fanbase is at either. But Maureen or Amber would make sense too.
Bottom line? Anyone other than James, Laurie, or Calvin wouldn’t shock me.
I think it’s Babyface and Jana. I “feel” like Maureen fits more with the target demographic of the show, and she’s also been fairly memorable. Jana, in my opinion, is the most forgettable contestant this season. She’s made no impact whatsoever and has a boring pro on top of it. Sometimes it’s better to be bad than bland.
While it seems impossible for Babyface to make up those numbers (though other dancers in other seasons have made up more – somewhere in the neighborhood of 40K per million is the record, I think – PH would know) and so probably is going home, I think a lot of the other underscored folks from this week are making up the deficit, and we’ll get an elimination of either Amber, Maureen or Terra (or an outside chance of two of them). Looking at PH’s numbers, I can’t see either James or Laurie leaving – there’s no way that *everyone* is beating them – and I doubt that Marilu or Ryan would qualify as a “shocking” elimination based on last night’s leaderboard and the fact it’s a double elimination. Calvin was so underscored that I think he got the votes. I don’t know about Vanilla or Jana – they had the same score as Calvin, so they’re also just two points away from Marilu, and so equally close to the bottom of the leaderboard, but they weren’t underscored the way Calvin was, and neither of them have been leaderboard toppers, so it wouldn’t be shocking from that perspective. Vanilla’s been in the bottom of the pack until last night, and Jana’s been in the middle. I don’t know.
Given Tom’s tweet and PH’s numbers, I’m going to say Babyface is going, and the shocking elimination will be Amber, Maureen or Terra, with an outside chance of two of them going, or Jana being the shocking elimination.
Would Jana classify as “shocking” though? She’s pretty much near the middle/close to the bottom and I don’t think they would say that’s as shocking as someone who did pretty well last night and had a high score, which is why I think it’s Terra. She got her first 9s and people probably assuming that she’s 3rd in the leaderboard that she’s safe.
I took another look at Tom’s tweet, and he said that with the double elimination “surprises await” and “the danger of supporters not voting becomes clear”. Even though he doesn’t say it’s shocking, I don’t think that the bottom of the leaderboard (so Babyface, Marilu and Ryan) qualify. Not sure if Vanilla, Jana, or Calvin would either – but Maureen, Amber, and Terra most likely would. The biggest surprise (other than Laurie or James leaving) would be if Babyface *doesn’t* leave.
I agree, Butterfly. Have a feeling they’re gonna put one of those three (Maureen, Amber, and Terra) in jeopardy at the start of the show, or call one of the lowest scorers (Babyface or Marilu) safe first and create the suspense. I actually wouldn’t mind Marilu being called safe early so I can watch the show with no worries.
With Tom tweeting this: “With 2nite’s double elimination, surprises await. And the danger of supporters not voting becomes clear.”
What if both Maks & Derek went home. That would be a surprise elimination if their fans didn’t vote for their pros more than Babyface & Maureen’s fans voted for them. It can be anybody when they throw out surprise elimination but no one would be surprised if the two at the bottom got voted off. Oh the anticipation!
@maria, could be possible, however with marilu’s score, it angered a lot of Derek fans and encouraged them to vote more. If anything, I don’t think they’re basing this on a pro standpoint.
Holy Crap. Babyface and James or Calvin. Thanks a bunch Tom.
Or hell, maybe it’s Laurie and her supporters aren’t voting as suggested by KellyK a few weeks back, but I seriously doubt she’s leaving.
Who would be the next “Sabrina Bryan?” I still say James or Calvin. Great improvement, great dances last night, high energy and great desire to continue the journey–yeah, either one of these 2 would surprise me.
FWIW–Maureen’s rehearsal footage: self-serving, crying totally grated on me. Is she a perfectionist or just a whiner? Artem’s expressions remind me of Tony D’s when he got stuck with Kate G. I really feel sorry for Artem. I don’t think Maureen “gets” what this is about and for me, she was over scored. I found their dance beyond boring last night.
#Maria_D I can imagine Maks going home because his fans are most likely splitting their votes with Val.
But I can’t imagine Derek’s fans not voting. If anything, they are voting for him more now than they have ever voted before.
Thanks Princess Heidi! I always love the “numbers” posts. And no worries here about your batting average. I agree that this is the end of the line for Babyface and Allison. Sad in that I really like him and the choreo that she’s done for him. But he’s never really gotten a whole performance well. He has moments of brilliance but overall, isn’t leaving a big enough splash. And I doubt either Kenny or Allison has enough voting fans to pull out a deficit.
The second elimination was already hard to call. And Tom’s tricky tweet makes it much more interesting! Since Tom mentions a surprise and the dangers of not voting, I don’t think the second elimination is Marilu and Derek. She has the second lowest score so the only way you could call that elimination “surprising” would be on Derek. But he has a passionate, voting fanbase. I don’t think they’d be out yet with the other pairs close in scores.
I don’t think Tom’s tweet would be in regards to controversial Ryan and his popular partner Cheryl. I think Amber’s controversy, her slutwalk and the publicity that she got, plus Maks’ fans will give her a pass this week.
I DO think that Tom’s tweet could be about Jana (and Gleb) but my gut says it’s about Maureen or Terra. I expect Maureen is known and loved by a large portion of the audience but she hasn’t had a breakout dance and it was a pretty unflattering package yesterday. But my guess is, Terra and Sasha will be eliminated tonight.
@dancewithme I don’t think it’s James. He just has too big of a following and Indycar has watch parties and whatnot and votes for him every week. I think if anything it’s Terra, she’s in the “top 4” in scores so that’s any easy position for someone to get complacent and not vote. My thing is is that there have been instances where Tom has hinted a surprise or shocking elimination and it wasn’t. For example, Sherri Shepard, so I’m curious to see if this is shocking to the general DWTS audience or to us who knows this show really well.
Could be Terra too. Even though she’s gotten high scores so far she has been in jeopardy. That would be a shame because I’ve loved everything she’s done but with so many other good ones on this season, I can see how there aren’t enough votes to go around.
Gosh, it really could be anyone, Ryan, Jana, Terra…..
I mean if I were Babyface or his friend LA Reid with the $$ they have, I would personally set up my own phone banks to hire people to vote for me non-stop.
Bloody Tom and his random tweet sending everyone into a panic. He won’t really know who is popular and who is coming off well with viewers all he can go on is scores. Which means a surprise for him would be a couple finishing somewhere like joint 4th on the leaderboard (Maureen, Amber) and still get eliminated. I don’t think Marilu or Ryan would be seen as a surprise to him on that basis. Hence why I’m sure it’s Maureen as Tom would probably see that as a surprise considering her leaderboard placement.
People seriously need to chill over James or Calvin though. Both will be absolutely fine! I’m happy to look like an idiot if either of them get eliminated because it’s not going to happen.
@M8, the DWTS instagram just posted about elimination and said “tonight’s results show kicks off with a surprise in one hour.” Very interesting..
Marilu’s latest tweet has me worried. I know Derek somehow knows if he’s getting eliminated and prepares his partners. Marilu tweeted she’s thankful to all of D’s fans “whatever the outcome”. I’m probably reading too much into it, but it’s giving me the same vibe as Nastia and Derek’s social media posts before they were eliminated.
Tell you what Tina, I’ll be happy when it’s back to normal Monday nights with no results show at this rate haha. Although I’m not sure how they are going to do eliminations next week if tonight is the last results show.
That’s a good point, M8. Maybe they are having a double elim this week and not eliminating anyone next week because of no Tuesday show and no scores/votes to carry over? I didn’t think of that until now.
Ananya, it looks like she was responding to a fan that said they hoped she was safe, but I don’t think it means too much. If it’s a surprising elimination, I don’t think she falls in that category based on where she on the leaderboard.
So Derek is performing two amazing dances tonight. Won’t it just be his luck to do Emmy winning dances and then get eliminated?!!! Fingers crossed that he and Marilu still have a chance to dance next week!
When they’re in second to last place, Derek would be foolish NOT to prepare her in some way. Just watch his face during the show – he’s right alot.
Of course, I don’t think he’s ever been this low on the leaderboard in week 4…
Poor Tom. LOL.
Since the offical instagram posted a photo of V.Ice and Maureen with their “surprise” comments, bet it’s neither of those two. Although they could be trying some reverse psychology.
Tina, IMO, most of the time when Tom and the show hint at a shocking elimination, it really hasn’t been one. I guess we’ll see. Then again, I would only be surprised if it was James, Laurie or Calvin.
The judges and TPTB structured the scores last night and now we have to sit and hope that the viewers voted to keep their favorite pro and celebrity in a position to dance next week. You are right, as always, Princess Heidi, that Derek knows how the game is played and will have warned Marilu of how things could play out.
They call Babyface and Marilu to the stage and call both of them safe?? That would be a hell of a surprise right at the start of the show. And that would make me at least half wrong right off the bat. 😀
I was gonna say Heidi, if they want to spring a surprise, call Babyface safe straight off the bat. That would raise some hell! Just guessing Maybe Vanilla and Maureen will be the last two standing as to who the second person is to go home? Or they could have just found a any old random photo and posted it. I’m not even going to try and guess at what they are playing at. I’m still sticking for BF and Mo to go though.
Ditto on Derek, he’ll have said something to Marilu. It’s strange because he’s never been in this position for as long as I can remember. He’s bound to be nervous.
Thanks so much for your numbers analysis PH. It’s awfully tight for the second one to go.
We will hear Tom remind viewers of the importance of voting. I wish fans could remind the judges of the importance of scoring fairly.
If not for Tom’s tweet, I was thinking Jana and Babyface. Now, I think Terra and Jana.
Sorry I mistyped my email address!
Bummer. Hate seeing V.Ice go home. He was awesome to have every week like Rick. And is this the earliest Witney has been out since her first season as a pro?
Have to say, I am surprised Amber has stuck around as long as she has. I just don’t see the votes coming in for her. Maybe for Maks. But I guess she isn’t necessarily getting the votes it’s just the others are getting even less than her.
Glad Terra was safe. And Gleb. 🙂
Well done, Miss. I was about to die with Gleb and Jana at the end. I was so glad when they were called safe!!
It’s disappointing to see James in the bottom. That could rattle him, but I hope people will vote for him.
Dear god, JAMES WAS NOT IN THE BOTTOM. James was put in jeopardy, which could mean something or absolutely nothing. Someone has to be there, and it’s not always the couples that are in imminent danger of elimination. I’m more inclined to think that James’ jeopardy appearance was more for the sake of drama than anything else, but I’m still encouraging people to create more accounts to vote with, to be safe.
I agree with you, Dee. The judges act upset when certain celebrities are eliminated. They
need to realize that a lot of the time that their scores and comments help put the celebrities in jeopardy!
I wonder too, that Calvin and Marilu were scored so low because they’re killing it in votes…as opposed to Laurie and Mo and Amber. Amber’s Tango was weak at best. Not sharp whatsoever. Maureen is doing better but is still kinda forgettable like Jana…and even Terra. I didn’t even know who Jana and Terra were until they were announced as cast members for this season. THIS is the only reality show that I watch. The other TV show being Grey’s Anatomy. I like to think I’m up on pop culture as I read People magazine weekly & hadn’t seen either Terra or Jana in the magazine in the last few years.
I don’t think there’ll be an elimination next week as it’s down to one night now…..hence the reason for the double elim this week. I hope Amber is the next to go.
I hope they don’t have an elimination next week because I think it’d be terribly unfair on whoever goes as they could only base it on yesterday’s scores and votes plus maybe next Monday’s scores. So pretty much an unofficial triple elimination. Remember when Randy Couture got screwed over by a similar situation in Season 19. It’s MMY year night which is bound to be emotional, just let the couples get on with it without having to worry about an elimination then it’s back to the usual format the week after. If they have to have another double elimination down the line to make up the numbers then so be it.