Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, another night of crap ass scoring by judges who were having a hard time hiding their agenda. I mean what the hell was going on there? It’s almost like they got together before the show, had some wine and decided what scores they were going to hand out…and then several people over performed and didn’t match the low scores that were determined over drinks.

A huge problem with this show – HUGE – is the assigning of themes and dances. You give Laurie – the gymnast – a dance with few to no rules on a week where the theme whose middle name is “gymnastics”. Then you turn around and give EVERYONE else dances with very clear rules – and mark them down when they don’t execute. Of course Laurie got 10s – there was no way to “miss” a step, or have not enough body contact, or whatever. It’s ridiculous that you have couples dancing Jazz up against V.Waltz, Quickstep, Paso Doble and Tangos. Ridiculous. But worst of all, Val had a dance where anything goes, to an MJ song, with a 16 year old gymnast…and did we see anything close to what both Derek and Mark choreographed when they had partners with similar skill sets? Nope. Not even close. It’s a waste of a great partner.

:::sigh::: But why bother? I’m not the least bit surprised.

Anyway, I think Babyface is likely history and I’m thinking that Marilu will end up being safe. She and Calvin were both so underscored that I suspect they are getting the votes. I hope so, anyway.  Here’s where the leaderboard was at the end of the night…and keep in mind tomorrow is a double elimination.

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Why do I think Marilu will end up being safe? Well, there just aren’t many votes needed by her to get past someone that’s above her – and she has Derek, in addition to fitting squarely in the demo that watches this show.  Question is, who’s the person who will go. First, Babyface:

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As you can see, he has fairly sizable margins to overcome…and I don’t think he’s going to make it. Certainly not over Marilu or Calvin – and to be safe this week you have to do better than two people. I don’t think it’s happening.

How about Marilu? Smaller margins. If Babyface goes, she has to beat one person above her in order to be safe.

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I kinda think she beats both Jana and Ryan. Not sure about Maureen and Amber – the judges overscored them so tremendously, they might have saved them.  She could well beat both of them. It’s a tough call. But let’s say that she beats at least Ryan, since she only needs 3.9k more votes per million votes cast. That’s nothing! So, what does Ryan have to do?

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I think Ryan beats Jana, Maureen and Amber. I know lots of people say they aren’t voting for him, but he’s really likable and those protesters did him a huge favor. I think he’s going to pull it out one more week.

So where does that leave us?  Obviously, at the top of the leaderboard, James and Laurie are safe. I’m loving Terra and I doubt I’m the only one – I’m saying she’s safe, easily. I think Calvin has nothing to worry about. I’m a little nervous for Marilu, but I think she’s doing better than one or three people above her on the leaderboard. I think Ryan is safe because he’s also doing better than a couple people above him.

That leaves us with Babyface, V.Ice, Jana, Maureen and Amber.  I think Babyface is going home. But who else? V.Ice, Jana and Calvin are in a three way tie which Calvin wins easily. I think V.Ice is getting the ONE vote more than Jana. If Babyface is going home, that would make V.Ice safe.  So, that leaves us with Jana, Maureen and Amber.

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Oy veh. This is a tough call I think. The question is – is Jana getting the 3.9k more votes per million votes cast than Maureen or Amber? I have no idea. And between Amber and Maureen, who’s getting the ONE vote? Dang. I think Amber gets the one vote thanks to her partner Maks and her faux controversy this week. If Babyface is eliminated, this makes Amber safe. Looking at it another way, Jana needs TWO of the following things to happen in order to be safe:

  • Jana needs Babyface to NOT get the 19,200 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • Jana needs Marilu to NOT get the 7,700 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • Jana needs Ryan to NOT get the 3,900 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • Jana needs ONE more vote per million votes cast than either V.Ice or Calvin, OR;
  • Jana needs 3,900 more votes per million votes cast than either Amber or Maureen.

And so on. The problem is, I only see the first one happening. She might be beating Maureen. Which means Maureen would be eliminated. This is a really tough call. Let’s do the same thing for Maureen. Maureen needs TWO of the following things to happen in order to be safe:

  • Maureen needs Babyface to not get the 23k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Maureen needs Marilu to not get the 11.5k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Maureen needs Ryan to NOT get the 7,700 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Maureen needs Jana, V.Ice or Calvin to NOT get the 3,900 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Maureen needs ONE more vote per million votes than Amber

Now, which two of those is happening? Babyface and…ah hell, I dunno and it’s late. I can’t decide if it’s going to be Jana, Maureen or Amber going home with Babyface.

My gut says maybe Maureen…but my gut is only batting 500 so far this season. 🙂

ETA: And my gut woke up this morning, re-read this post and started to think that Jana might be the one in trouble. So which gut will be right? Or will I drop to .333? 🙂