Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, this week will be interesting.  We have a four way tie for last place and I’m sure that was just an accident. :::rolls eyes:::  Let me tell you, one of that four is not like the others – what the hell is Calvin still doing at the bottom of the leader board? Personally, I’m not convinced that Maureen belongs down there either, but I would only put her above Amber and Ryan by a point. Calvin by 2 or 3 points.  I think that Maureen has been a bit overscored on more than one occasion but I like her so I ain’t too mad. Calvin, on the other hand, has been robbed on more than one occasion. Not sure what they’re seeing there, honestly. Lindsey has been doing a tremendous job in choreo and I think she has a harder job than Sharna, the other standout female pro this season.  Good lord, Calvin was throwing Lindsay around…it was amazing.

I think that Laurie landed in about the right spot this week, as did Marilu and James. Terra…I don’t know what to make of her. I LIKE her so much, a lot of the time, but the contemporary dance didn’t do much for me. Conversely, her Samba kicked ASS. I think it has to do with her small stature which limits her ability to get that flowy, smooth finish to dances like Contemporary. Not her fault, but at some point they will have to score her in comparison to other competitors. I think she’s just too high on the leader board this week.

Speaking of the leader board…

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You would think this week would be easy…but no. That four way tie makes it very difficult indeed. Last time we had one, I thought that V.Ice was safe and he went home. :::sniff::: It’s hard because they each only need ONE vote per million votes cast than the other. So, if five million people voted, Amber (for example) only needs FIVE votes more than Calvin for him to go home over her. Essentially, if one fan group of the bottom four got a little lazy…boom.

What do those four on the bottom need to do to be safe other than get the one vote per million votes cast?

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Unfortunately for them, Laurie is the one that’s immediately above them on the leader board and I don’t think any (or all) of them are going to get the 4.4k more votes per million votes cast to pass her. No way…that would be a truly shocking elimination. While that sort of elimination could happen, I don’t think it will be this week.

Next is Jana. Now, I think that Calvin might just get the 8.7k more votes per million votes cast to beat Jana…but that could be wishful thinking on my part, a la V.Ice. But really, it’s likely that Jana and Laurie (and Terra and Marilu and James) are completely irrelevant and the person going home is one of that bottom four.  And I think Jana is probably out of reach for at least two of them, maybe three.

Ryan, Maureen, Amber and Calvin. I’m assuming that Calvin is safe. So, Ryan, Maureen and Amber. Amber has Maks (whose likely splitting some votes with Val) – that’s a pro and a con all rolled into one. Ryan has Cheryl and he’s turned out to be a charming guy, all in all – that’s a pro and a pro. There’s the whole Rio thing, but in the days of Donald Trump does anyone even remember? That leaves us with Maureen, a TV icon, but whose pro is probably the male pro with the smallest fanbase right now.  But there’s no denying Maureen’s icon status and she is VERY nice. There’s a lot to be said for likable.

At the end of the day, I think that Amber comes out on the short end in this four way match up. I think Calvin is the only one with a prayer of passing someone above him, and of the three remaining I think Amber is the one whose last week did her no favors, who’s dancing too timid and who has a distracted professional. She’s also a woman outside the demo of the show, unlike Maureen.

But, just so you can see how the people above the bottom four stack up, here’s what Laurie needs – and I don’t think she’s in first place this week in the combined score. She has to do a lot to get past James.

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And then there’s Jana – I don’t think she’s getting past anyone above her, but lucky for her it probably won’t matter. She’s got a good cushion of people below her.

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Just to take a look at what it would take for Jana to be eliminated, since if it’s anyone other than the bottom four it would likely be her, let’s run the numbers down. For Jana to be eliminated, ALL of the following things would have to happen:

  • Maureen, Amber, Ryan and Calvin would ALL have to get 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Laurie would have to get 4,400 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Jana would have to NOT get 4,400 more votes per million votes cast than Marilu AND Terra, AND;
  • Jana would have to NOT get 13,100 more votes per million votes cast than James.

I think it is HIGHLY likely that Jana is NOT getting the votes to pass Marilu, Terra or James, and I think that Laurie is passing her easily. Question is, are ALL of the bottom four getting 8,700 more votes per million votes than Jana?  I think that one or two might (Calvin and Ryan? Or Maureen and Calvin?)…but certainly not all four, and that’s what would have to happen for her to be eliminated.

As a result, Marilu, Terra, James, Laurie and Jana are all very likely to be safe this coming Monday. I happen to believe that Calvin will be safe.

Of the remaining three, I think it comes down to Maureen and Amber, with Amber going home. On the crazy alternative topic – if I’m wrong, it could be Amber and Jana in the bottom…with Amber still going home.

We’ll see. Now you’ve seen the numbers, who do you think has the juice to make it to week 7?