Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!
Well, this week will be interesting. We have a four way tie for last place and I’m sure that was just an accident. :::rolls eyes::: Let me tell you, one of that four is not like the others – what the hell is Calvin still doing at the bottom of the leader board? Personally, I’m not convinced that Maureen belongs down there either, but I would only put her above Amber and Ryan by a point. Calvin by 2 or 3 points. I think that Maureen has been a bit overscored on more than one occasion but I like her so I ain’t too mad. Calvin, on the other hand, has been robbed on more than one occasion. Not sure what they’re seeing there, honestly. Lindsey has been doing a tremendous job in choreo and I think she has a harder job than Sharna, the other standout female pro this season. Good lord, Calvin was throwing Lindsay around…it was amazing.
I think that Laurie landed in about the right spot this week, as did Marilu and James. Terra…I don’t know what to make of her. I LIKE her so much, a lot of the time, but the contemporary dance didn’t do much for me. Conversely, her Samba kicked ASS. I think it has to do with her small stature which limits her ability to get that flowy, smooth finish to dances like Contemporary. Not her fault, but at some point they will have to score her in comparison to other competitors. I think she’s just too high on the leader board this week.
Speaking of the leader board…
You would think this week would be easy…but no. That four way tie makes it very difficult indeed. Last time we had one, I thought that V.Ice was safe and he went home. :::sniff::: It’s hard because they each only need ONE vote per million votes cast than the other. So, if five million people voted, Amber (for example) only needs FIVE votes more than Calvin for him to go home over her. Essentially, if one fan group of the bottom four got a little lazy…boom.
What do those four on the bottom need to do to be safe other than get the one vote per million votes cast?
Unfortunately for them, Laurie is the one that’s immediately above them on the leader board and I don’t think any (or all) of them are going to get the 4.4k more votes per million votes cast to pass her. No way…that would be a truly shocking elimination. While that sort of elimination could happen, I don’t think it will be this week.
Next is Jana. Now, I think that Calvin might just get the 8.7k more votes per million votes cast to beat Jana…but that could be wishful thinking on my part, a la V.Ice. But really, it’s likely that Jana and Laurie (and Terra and Marilu and James) are completely irrelevant and the person going home is one of that bottom four. And I think Jana is probably out of reach for at least two of them, maybe three.
Ryan, Maureen, Amber and Calvin. I’m assuming that Calvin is safe. So, Ryan, Maureen and Amber. Amber has Maks (whose likely splitting some votes with Val) – that’s a pro and a con all rolled into one. Ryan has Cheryl and he’s turned out to be a charming guy, all in all – that’s a pro and a pro. There’s the whole Rio thing, but in the days of Donald Trump does anyone even remember? That leaves us with Maureen, a TV icon, but whose pro is probably the male pro with the smallest fanbase right now. But there’s no denying Maureen’s icon status and she is VERY nice. There’s a lot to be said for likable.
At the end of the day, I think that Amber comes out on the short end in this four way match up. I think Calvin is the only one with a prayer of passing someone above him, and of the three remaining I think Amber is the one whose last week did her no favors, who’s dancing too timid and who has a distracted professional. She’s also a woman outside the demo of the show, unlike Maureen.
But, just so you can see how the people above the bottom four stack up, here’s what Laurie needs – and I don’t think she’s in first place this week in the combined score. She has to do a lot to get past James.
And then there’s Jana – I don’t think she’s getting past anyone above her, but lucky for her it probably won’t matter. She’s got a good cushion of people below her.
Just to take a look at what it would take for Jana to be eliminated, since if it’s anyone other than the bottom four it would likely be her, let’s run the numbers down. For Jana to be eliminated, ALL of the following things would have to happen:
- Maureen, Amber, Ryan and Calvin would ALL have to get 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Laurie would have to get 4,400 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Jana would have to NOT get 4,400 more votes per million votes cast than Marilu AND Terra, AND;
- Jana would have to NOT get 13,100 more votes per million votes cast than James.
I think it is HIGHLY likely that Jana is NOT getting the votes to pass Marilu, Terra or James, and I think that Laurie is passing her easily. Question is, are ALL of the bottom four getting 8,700 more votes per million votes than Jana? I think that one or two might (Calvin and Ryan? Or Maureen and Calvin?)…but certainly not all four, and that’s what would have to happen for her to be eliminated.
As a result, Marilu, Terra, James, Laurie and Jana are all very likely to be safe this coming Monday. I happen to believe that Calvin will be safe.
Of the remaining three, I think it comes down to Maureen and Amber, with Amber going home. On the crazy alternative topic – if I’m wrong, it could be Amber and Jana in the bottom…with Amber still going home.
We’ll see. Now you’ve seen the numbers, who do you think has the juice to make it to week 7?
I’ve never seen Calvin play football but I love him on DWTS. He’s been getting low balled every week so I sure hope he’s not the one going home. My choice would be Maureen, Amber or Jana. Thanks for crunching the numbers each week, Princess Heidi!
Think it’ll be between Amber and Maureen for sure and don’t mind either one leaving. I wonder if they’re gonna put Laurie in jeopardy just for the drama? It won’t be surprising this week cause of her score. They did that to James so why not her. She can’t have it easy every week.
I’m happy to see you think Calvin is likely safe. I will be so sad if he gets eliminated. If his tied for bottom score was accurate it wouldn’t be so bad but I completely agree that he doesn’t belong in that group score wise.
I’m thinking (and hoping) that Amber will go home. She had a fairly unmemorable dance, and Laurie is only one point off the bottom on the scoreboard, so people who might usually throw some votes to Amber may give them all to Laurie this week.
I’m really hoping that neither Ryan nor Calvin go home, though I will be only sad and disappointed if Ryan leaves, but outraged if Calvin does, since he has been getting lower scores than he deserves.
One of your best Number’s post ever. You did it again, Heidi!!
And I’m with you….what the heck is Calvin doing so low? I have just loved him and he’s been so consistent every week. He should be in the top 3 imo.
Anyway, I’m with you. I think it will be Amber going home…or Maureen. Atleast, I hope that’s the case.
Should definitely be Amber IMO. She has a huge fan base though so I think it will come down to how many of them voted. I don’t think Maks base is as strong as it used to be although he has a handful of serious power voters lol.
Frankly, I’m hoping that it’s Amber (and Maks) going home. While she’s a lovely woman, their dancing disappoints me badly. I keep waiting for a break through for her that isn’t happening and I don’t think it will with her pro. And no switch up week in sight.
I’m angry over how stingy they are to Calvin and Lindsay week after week! He’s been a totally unexpected joy for me from week 1! So much for the NFL season last go round……. And I agree that they are being generous with Terra (and Sasha) and I don’t quite grasp why. Is it a kind of Noah/Nyle syndrome? I feel like they are afraid to come down hard on the differently abled contestant. But in the case of the afore mentioned guys, I expect they had massive voting fanbases. I truly doubt that Terra does. So basically, the judges are afraid they will themselves be hardly judged for being “mean.”
It is definitely between Maureen and Amber. While Maureen has that desperation vibe that is a big turn off, Amber’s edit is whiny, slow and lumbering like Kim Kardashian when she was on the show, lots of promise, no delivery. Even though Amber has a big social media presence, it just doesn’t make a strong impact on DWTS. So, next week will probably be team dances, and since the Chmerkovskiy vote is getting split and Maks does not seem to be as invested as he was with other celebs, she is probably the one to go.
I also wanted to say before I hit the button that Amber probably would have left last week, but the dramatic dust up with Julianne probably bought her another week, and since this was no elimination she has stayed longer than expected. I think Carrie Ann sort of gave away the production’s hand when they asked Amber how she felt about that Samba, thereby absolving them of the body shaming incident since Amber now felt great about her costume, her dance, and girl power.
Sorry to be a message hog, this is a great numbers post by the way. I think Calvin is being scored low because he is getting the fan vote that maybe impacting on Laurie, since her partner vote gets shared with his brother. But viewers know who they like, and Calvin’s name is always mentioned in the top 3.
If it goes to top 4- I could see a real battle of freestyles amongst Sharna, Derek, Lindsay and Val.
@Casanova, Court said on twitter sometime in the last week or so that team dances are going to be on Halloween.
Btw, am I going crazy and not calculating correctly, or does DWTS need to have another “non- elimination” night to be on track with the finals? By the end of the night on Halloween, there will be 6 couples left. The finals isn’t until November 21st, (which makes it an 11 week season) hence if they eliminate one couple by the end of the night on November 7th, that leaves them with 5 left two weeks before the finale when they want to have 5 couples on November 13th, one goes home and then 4 the week after for the finals. So I’m curious how they are going to do this, because I highly doubt they’re gonna have an 11 week show and have a 3 couple finale like the spring. They have no other show taking their spot after 8 PM on the 21st, so that gives freedom for a 2 hour finals like in the past fall seasons.
@Tina, I think they’ll have 4 freestyles, then eliminate one person at the end of Monday night, then top 3 do the fusion dances announce 3rd place mid show Tuesday then the winner at the end.
@CM yep, 4 freestyles Monday night the 21st, then elim then 3 dance the fusion on Tuesday the 22nd.
However, at this point of the competition if one couple gets eliminated every week leading up to the finale, we are going to have 3 couples going into the 21st, so I think sometime between now and the 7th, there has to be another week with no elimination.
Thanks for the heads up #Tina on the Team Dances. I like a team dance to have an even split in the numbers, but I guess the tired Halloween theme out ranks fairness.(((ha))) Oh well, given the dates for finishing this season, I guess it is possible that it will be a 3 person finale, although it makes more sense and frankly more entertainment to fill the hour with 4 freestyles and a judge’s redemption dance. Right now I could see Laurie and James go head to head on Paso Doble.
I am wondering why I see so few practice videos for Calvin and Lindsay compared with some of the others? I would like some behind-the-scene with them. Are then not doing them?
@Tina:
I think the eliminations have been adjusted to one per week now.
Week 6 – 8 left after the elimination
Week 7 – 7 left…
.
.
.
Week 10 – 4 left
Finale Week Night 1 will end with 3 couples left only.
Val hasn’t been able to compete in that group before, Casanova, I don’t know why anyone thinks he would start now.
They can and have done a three person finale – in fact, that used to be the norm. It could be that way again this season.
There have been very few in general, nl. I don’t know if I’ve seen more than one with Marilu.
I think Maureen will leave as Amber has Maks. Also she went first in the running order and Amber went fairly late. I still don’t think the producers want Maks gone yet. She was ridiculously overscored last Monday.
This week could be very interesting. I, like pretty much everyone, think its probably between Maureen and Amber. Both are at the bottom, and both had less memorable performances/stories IMO than other contestants. I really like Maureen, so I’m hoping its Amber, but I’m thinking its Maureen. I also think, even with jeopardy last week, that Jana is still floating towards the bottom. I think she’s safe this week, though.
I would have not had Vanilla Ice anywhere near jeopardy, though, so who knows.
I agree with the majority about Maureen and Amber. I think Jana’s story probably was relatable to a lot of people from what I saw this past week so I think she’ll get some votes to be safe from that. I honestly cringe every time Amber dances. Don’t know what it is, but it doesn’t seem like she’s enjoying herself as much as the others.
I hope Amber goes home, she’s not a dancer and it’s annoying to hear her whining and complaining instead of doing what needs to be done and stop with the pity party.
I think week 6 will be last week scores and this week scores combined with this weeks voting which would mean it could be anybody. these are the combined scores from this week and last week.
James 57
Laurie 55
Jana 49
Marilu 48
Amber 48
maureen 48
ryan 46
calvin 47
terra 52
I hope Amber goes home as well. Her expiration date and style of each dance is way past due for me. I just hope Ryan and Cheryl are safe. I hope they didn’t get mixed in the shuffle in viewer votes and were able to stand out.
TPTB might want Amber and Maks to stay for at least for Halloween week for team dances and pit the two C. bros against each other or have them up against Derek…who knows?
Unfortunately, I think it will be Maureen who will be eliminated. I can remember her story a bit, but not her dance from last week.
Not hardly, Jin. It will be last weeks scores and last week votes just like always. Why would they change it? Cuz you want them to?
Ambers a bit whiny, but Maureen appears desperate. She seems sweet but desperate. That’s the turn off for me, who knows what the main demo thinks about that. I’ll just say that amountge four at the bottom, Calvins the only one who’s almost guaranteed safe, everyone imelse is varying degrees of ‘maybe’ to ‘hope you have power voters’.
I think Amber’s going home. In addition to being out of demo range, her dance wasn’t particularly memorable. Fluffy, good but not great, preceded by a MMY that wasn’t particularly emotionally-grabbing.
@PH re post #17 I hear you regarding Val and his poor freestyles. I only put him in that group because I can’t see Laurie not being there. I would like to see Derek there, not because I think Marilu will win necessarily, but that her V Waltz is an indication that she is capable of top 4, maybe higher. I used to think that was Terra, now I think Marilu has a shot if she doesn’t psyche herself out. It would be way cool to see someone over 60 in the top tier.
I agree that it’s Maureen or Amber going home – and I’m fine with either choice. If Amber didn’t have Maks, I’d bet on it for sure – but he does have a devoted fanbase, that while they may be splitting votes for he and Val, are certainly on higher alert than for Laurie. But as likable as Maureen can be, she also seems a bit desperate which might turn people off as well. I’ll say Amber goes, but for me it’s almost a coin toss at this point.
I don’t think Jana is in danger this week – she has enough of a cushion and her MMY was fairly vulnerable and got a lot of attention. I don’t think that will carry her much longer, but I think she has at least one more week if not two before she’s booted as a “shocking” elimination – that is, unless she and Gleb finally have a breakthrough dance.
I love Jana, but I don’t think she will be considered a “shocking” elimination – only James and Laurie will be honestly. We are at that point now where after Amber and Maureen leave, it’ll be hard to see anyone go but nobody aside from those two that will be considered a shocking elimination.
I don’t consider a Jana a shocking elimination either, just that the show and media will spin it as such.
I’ll be sad if it’s not Amber. I don’t think anyone else deserves to go tomorrow based on last week.
Mods, do you know if Lindsay or Sharna have been using outside choreographers? I know Lindsay used Alan Salazar in the past two seasons (more in season 21 than 22), and I haven’t seen any comments from Alan or Lindsay about outside choreography. Alan was very eager to take credit last season, but he hasn’t taken any credit this season, which is leaving me wondering if he hasn’t been ghosting. Either way, Lindsay’s choreography has been incredible.
As for Sharna, her ex-boyfriend Paul used to help her with choreography. He probably doesn’t anymore now that they aren’t a thing, but does Sharna use outside choreography? Whether she uses it or not, her choreography with James has been great this season.
To lose the work of Lindsay this early on would be a real shame, and I will certainly be power voting for her and Calvin next Monday.
Great numbers write up! I hope Amber goes; at least Maureen and Jana put effort in each week. I also think Amber is the weakest dancer left.
I think and hope it is Amber that is going home. I’m enjoying watching Maureen’s journey. I don’t see the desperation that some have seen. I just a see woman who is having fun and is grateful for the experience.
They all have to go at some point though for there to be a winner. I still have hope that it might be James. So unless it is him that goes tonight, I will be happy.