Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Another week, another bout of wackiness when it comes to judges scoring – luckily not as bad as in previous weeks.  Well, perhaps I should say ‘not as widespread’ as in previous weeks because it was still pretty bad in at least one instance.

If Len had been around this week, Jana would have gotten a 7 or 8 for her Argentine Tango – I think you can count on it. He’s shown recently that he doesn’t limit that just to Derek’s partners. But he wasn’t there so the travesty of Jana getting a perfect score while the better AT is three points lower. Why? Well, I suspect that Jana has been on the bubble and the leader board this week reflects the top half (to the judges) and the bottom half…with Marilu kinda straddling the middle ground, which is quite dangerous. The judges, I think, have roughly grouped the couples in that way – with the possibility of Calvin falling out of favor and Marilu rising. I think the jury is out for them on those two couples. Everyone else is either top three or bottom three.


I don’t think the judges are going to get exactly what they appear to want – one bad dance from Jana, which is scored accurately, and I think she might be toast. Of course, it depends on how long they can keep her safe – because you can be damn sure she’s safe this week. I would be very surprised if she were to be eliminated. For those wondering *how safe is safe*, for Jana to be eliminated, ALL of the following would have to happen:

  • Ryan and Terra BOTH would have to get 32.8k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Maureen has to get 29.6k more votes per million votes cast than Jana, AND;
  • Marilu has to get 19.7k more votes per million votes cast than Jana, AND;
  • Calvin AND Laurie BOTH would have to get 9.9k more votes per million votes cast than Jana, AND;
  • James would have to get 6.6k more votes per million votes cast than Jana.

I think James, Calvin and Laurie are probably beating her, but I would be surprised if anyone else is, with her getting a perfect score.  So, I’m calling Jana safe.

I’m also thinking that Calvin, Laurie and James are safe – think those three are the vote getters, although Calvin may be on the low end of that triad, simply because the sheeple have watched him get underscored for WEEKS now. I think when it eventually comes down to him and Marilu, whoever has the higher score will likely be safe. But that is likely at least two weeks away. Hopefully. 🙂 And if Jana ends up with the same score as them, she will likely be the one to depart.

So that leaves us with Marilu, Maureen, Terra and Ryan. Terra and Ryan are on the bottom and they don’t have to do too much work to be safe.


As you see from the above table, they really don’t have to do a lot to get past Maureen. If each of them get 4k more votes per million votes cast than her, Maureen could be toast. But Marilu is in a dangerous spot – those two need 13.2k more votes per million votes cast to get past her, and while I don’t think BOTH of them are doing it, one of them might be. Hard to say. But I jump ahead.  I’m inclined to think that Terra and Ryan both are getting the votes to beat Maureen.

Let’s assume they do – what about Maureen?


If Ryan and Terra get past Maureen, Maureen would need nearly 10k more votes per million votes cast than Marilu to stay over her. I don’t believe she’s getting that. Both women are in the same demo, but Maureen is kinda needy and the audience doesn’t generally go for that – and she has Artem while Marilu has Derek. Huge difference in fanbases there.

That 10k votes makes me think that Marilu is safe. My gut says that Ryan and Terra aren’t getting past her either – I could be wrong, of course.  And Marilu needs for Maureen, Ryan and Terra to not get the votes to beat her because I don’t think Marilu is beating anyone above her this week.


They’ve just put a nice, huge cushion between Marilu and those above her. This is why I say Marilu is middle of the pack in the judge’s eyes – and Calvin could rejoin her in that middle unless he is nearly perfect in the coming weeks. He’s certainly not getting the slack that Laurie, James and Jana have been getting. Or should I say “was” in the case of Laurie? Nah, I’m quite sure they’ll be back to pimping her as soon as the lower tier are gone. While I’m talking about Laurie, James and Jana…


As you can see from all the previous tables, these three are going nowhere this week.

So, if Jana, James, Laurie, Calvin and Marilu are all safe, that brings us back to Terra, Ryan and Maureen. Less than four thousand votes.

Ryan and Terra only need ONE vote per million votes cast for one to stay over the other. Who’s getting the one vote? No clue – I would guess Terra, but it’s hard to say. Rio seems like eons ago now. I think it’s more likely that both of them are getting the less than 4k votes per million votes cast to stay over Maureen – and that’s what would have to happen. Ryan and Terra need the 4k votes, and Maureen doesn’t get the 10k she needs to get past Marilu.

And this is my guess.  Maureen goes home…and I bet they put Marilu in jeopardy for a change. Just for excitement value.  Maureen is my first guess.  If not Maureen, then I think Ryan. But dang, my gut is really telling me Maureen.

What does YOUR gut say?