DWTS Season 24, Week One – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, here I am again. Can’t say I’m overly excited about the show this season – silly fangirls, judges acting stupid, the producers using Julianne as a Heather apologist…all very annoying.

But there were a few actual bright spots. I loved David and Rashad, I thought Nick was funny and I liked that he wasn’t afraid to call a ringer BS.  Love Simone, but I’m hoping that Sasha doesn’t play it too safe in the coming weeks. I’ve seen a lot of criticism of their Tango, but I have to say…I think it was the music. That music was crap. Just ONCE this season I would love to see an actual TANGO.  Think Alexa and Derek – that kicked ASS. Hell, just about any Tango he’s ever done. He generally goes more traditional in the tango steps and music (when he has a choice) and I think the white flowery dress and the light, not-very-tango-y music of Simone and Sasha just ruins it for me. You can see the difference if you watch many of Derek’s – dark and intense.

Thinking of Derek’s dances makes me miss what this show CAN be, when allowed. I think just ONCE this season, I would like to see something unexpected – granted, we got that with David and Lindsay’s great quickstep, but I mean unexpectedly amazing. Like a Pretty Woman Tango. Or a 50’s Paso. Futuristic Paso.  I could go on. But when Derek and Mark are both gone, it doesn’t look good. The only consistently good choreographers on this show right now are women and they don’t have the strongest partners. At least not yet. The mediocre choreographers have the big ringers. It’s frustrating.  It sets up this season to be a big disappointment.

So here is my plea – Lindsay, Sharna, Sasha and Emma: I am begging you to not play it safe. KILL IT. All I’m asking for is the next Futuristic Paso. Lindsay and Sharna definitely have it in them – I’ve seen it. I know they can do it. I’m not asking you to be Derek Hough – Dereks don’t come around every day. But I HAVE seen you choreograph some amazing dances with James, Noah, Calvin, Alek and others.  Sasha and Emma? This is your chance to show everyone what you’re made of – you both have great partners. Step up. I don’t have to have Derek for this show to make me happy. I need great choreography…and a lack of producer manipulation would be great, but we’ll take one thing at a time. :::sigh:::

Honestly, if Normani or Heather win this season it will just be so damn boring and cliché and unexciting. How exciting is it for a big ole ringer to come in, a Chmerkovskiy to coast by on so-so choreo, and they still manage to win?  And not even because they were so great, but because everyone else is either not doing well, are underscored or the producers have an agenda…or all three.

Anyway, those are my hopes for the season. And I talk all about that because the numbers? Ain’t nothin’ to see here. Honestly, I can’t imagine anyone other than one person going home.  Remember back before the season started when I said that I think Erika might be the first to go unless Chris really bombs? Yeah, well…

I think it’s safe to say that Chris bombed. Lots of people can survive bad first dances. It’s the follow-up that will kill them and he really didn’t do well with Erin either.

For the sake of newbies to this show, every week I take the scores that each of the couples got and determine how many votes per million votes cast they need to be safe over the other couples.   For those of you who don’t know how DWTS works, it’s an equal combination of viewer votes and judges score.  For the judge’s scores, each couples score is divided by the total points handed out to get that couple’s percentage or rank. The viewer votes are handled the same way – the votes a particular couple gets is divided by the total votes cast for their percentage, or rank.  The two percentages are added together and the couple with the lowest combined total goes home.  Obviously, we don’t know who’s getting what votes, so that’s where the guess work comes into play.

So, using the above system, what does Chris need to be safe this week?

Chris needs nearly 10k more votes per million votes cast in order to “beat” Mr. T and be safe. Remember, if only one person is going home, each contestant only has to get a combined score better than one other person to be safe.  If Chris isn’t getting 10k more votes per million votes cast than Mr. T, his next option is Charo – he would need roughly 13,450 more votes per million votes cast to stay and for her to go home.

Just for the sake of argument, let’s say that Chris miraculously gets the votes to stay. So who would go instead?

This is a bit scary – Bonner would be going up against Charo and Mr. T, two people easily called cultural icons to the main demographic that watches this show. If I had to pick I would give the edge to Mr. T. Yes, he has to cover a margin for Charo to go home, but he only needs about 3,320 more votes per million votes cast in order to be safe. I also think he would easily beat Bonner at this point. Lucky for Charo and Bonner, there is no way that Chris is getting the votes he needs to beat either of them. I would be shocked and I’m rarely shocked by who gets eliminated any more.

This brings it back to Chris versus Mr. T. I don’t see any way that Chris survives to week 3. Mr. T lives to dance another day.  Charo better get a grip because her act will wear thin very quickly – and Erika better start killing it – Gleb, step up your game, dude. As soon as Erika dips within striking distance of Charo and Mr. T, you got problems.