DWTS Season 24, Week TWO – Dancing by the Numbers!
So, week 2 was…odd. Some things I understand – Rashad and Normani, Heather and Simone. But when you look at the scores, how on this planet do Nick and Charo get the same score? And how is Simone a full three points below the leaders and a point below Heather? Yeah, she had some hip hop in her routine, but so did Heather.
Anyway, there doesn’t appear to be a clear producer agenda just yet and that, combined with who danced in the last half hour really makes me wonder just who is getting the votes this season. It could make things very interesting through the rest of the season. They aren’t pushing the ringers super hard (yet) and that is…interesting. David getting the pimp spot is also interesting. Let’s take a look at the scores.
This is the point where I would start to worry about Erika…lucky for her Mr. T’s score is so low because she’s in the real danger zone. The people below her are ALL better known, some having icon status. Nancy, Nick, Charo, Mr. T and David all probably have more voters than her. The only question being is it enough for all of them to pass her? I’m going to say probably not this week. Mr. T would have to get roughly 18,300 more votes per million votes cast. But I jump ahead…
And you’ll see that Mr. T isn’t a sure thing for elimination. He only needs 9.2k votes per million votes cast to get past either Nick or Charo. This is going to be a tough call – 9.2k isn’t very much, but we’re talking about Charo and Nick. I think if he beats anyone it’s going to be Charo as she’s kinda wearing on people (although she appears to have Bill Shatner in her corner). I think Nick’s chunk of Bachelor Nation is still large enough to keep him safe…plus he’s funny. 🙂 If Mr. T doesn’t beat either Charo or Nick, he needs about 15.2k to get past David. I can almost guarantee that’s not going to happen.
And that brings us to Erika and Nancy. Nancy needs ONE more vote than Erika and I think she gets it, which make her safe. Mr. T needs 18.3k more votes per million votes cast than Erika. Could be close!
Let’s assume for a moment that Mr. T gets the votes to be safe. The next lowest person on the totem pole are Charo and Nick. I’ve already said that I think Nick is safe, but what about Charo??
Charo only needs about 6k more votes per million votes cast to beat David and there’s no way in hell I see that happening. Charo was in the middle of the first hour and David had the pimp spot. I think that writing is on the wall. For now. Where does Charo go from there? Well, Nancy and Erika. Like I said, I think Nancy beats Erika so that leaves Erika vulnerable to Charo. Charo only needs about 9.2k more votes per million votes cast in order to be safe over Erika.
So, IMO, we’re down to Mr. T, Charo and Erika. Is there any way that Erika can be safe by beating someone above her on the leader board? Well, considering that the people above her are Simone, Bonner, Heather, Normani and Rashad? Not likely at ALL.
So, the question for me is, Is Erika getting enough votes to protect herself from Mr. T and Charo. And the answer, for me, is…probably? I think she’s probably safe thanks to that 18k more votes that Mr. T needs – that might be enough.
And that leaves us with Mr. T and Charo and a difference of 9,200 votes per million. Man. Which one will prevail?
Here’s my final wager: Mr. T will be eliminated. If not him, then Charo. If they are both called safe, watch out Erika. And get your scores up – you’re on a high dollar cast and you can’t afford to be “okay”. I suspect (but have no clue for sure) that David and Rashad are sucking up the available votes like a vacuum cleaner. When two, maybe three cast members seem dominant, that makes it VERY dangerous for everyone around them. That’s my gut feel for the cast right now. It could change. 😀
Thank for the always enlightening Numbers post Princess Heidi! Once I came to understand these, I’ve looked forward to it every week. And you can only get this here newbies!
Big sigh though, I want Charo OUT. Sooner rather than later. Sorry Keo.
Good job Miss Heidi!!! I agree….it’s going to be between Charo and Mr. T. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nick was in the bottom three either. In the end, I think Mr. T is heading home.
Charo supposedly wants to quit anyways maybe the stars will align and send her packing. I’
From looking around Facebook and other “casual corners” it seems David, Bonner, Rashad, and Simone are getting a lot more support from the GA than others, but I could be wrong.
I honestly think if Mr. T is indeed at the bottom this week and Charo is second from last they may have a surprise double elimination to get rid of her.
I know MrT doesn’t really move a lot but he has such a great attitude and I love Kym, I’m hoping they will get another week.
Question, if it came down to Erika and Heather how many votes would Erika need to stay over Heather? I know that this is an unlikely scenario, but I question how strong Heather’s fanbase is. Especially if the Chmerkovskiy clan fans are splitting their votes (idk if they are that’s just an assumption on my part??). Part of me wanted to know because she might not come from a huge fanbase, and also when we hit the point of the season where there’s no more weak contestants how will she stack up voting-wise.
Absolutely agree!! Those are the lower three on the totem pole but I, also, wouldn’t be surprised if some sort of drama was stirred up with Charo possibly “quitting”?
I, also, wonder if this week the producers will throw in a couple that’s been doing well, along with one of the lowest couples, during elimination just to screw with our heads. ? Hate it when they do that cause you know let’s say Lindsay and David couldn’t possibly be in elimination this week! It’s bullshit! But they would do it on purpose….???
I completely agree with your assessment. I’ve had Erika pegged as the “shocking elimination” that’s not shocking to anybody who understands how things work on this show since the beginning of the season.
I just reached Simone’s dance, aND wondering how on the world she didn’t get atleast 1 or 2 8’s. That was a really good dance. But she’s probably safe at this point.
Sorry, I meant rewatched.
I’m hoping Charo goes – it was entertaining Week 1 but too over the top annoying last week. Most of my votes went to Rashad, but I did throw a few to Mr. T, Erika and Nancy. I enjoy watching Mr. T and Kym even though he’s not a great dancer.
I’m over Charo. One week of her insanity was enough, so I hope she goes.
Anyone else secretly hoping Charo quits on live tv after she gets her scores? It would make for some great tv!
I really hope she goes home, one way or another.
@ JD#14 that would be great!
@JD I’d buy a ticket to see that 🙂
I’ve heard a bunch of people say they are sick of Charo and voted for Mr.T to try to save him and have her go. I know it’s just s drop in the bucket compared the the whole voting audience, but it gives me hope. If enough people feel like that…
PS: Thanks to the mods for all you do. I discovered a flooded basement when I tried to watch the show on Monday, without you guys I’d have no idea what happened.
Charo needs to go! She’s annoying & her schtick is worn out
I’m hoping Charo leaves. She doesn’t want to be there, so let her go. I don’t think she’ll be missed. If it doesn’t happen, and it’s between Mr. T and Erika, I want to see Erika go. I thin her attitude of “look at me, I’m rich and I can have anything I want” doesn’t sit well with a lot of viewers who are struggling to make it paycheck to paycheck. Plus, she’s not a good dancer.
I would like to see Mr. T get at least one more week. He knows he’ll be out soon, but he’s still trying.
And @JD, I agree with you 100%. It would be wonderful to see her walk out after her scores live tv. But I would feel awful for Keo.
A question for the mods. If she were to do that, would there still be an elimination as planned or would they go ahead with it and the future double elimination wouldn’t be done?
@Cindy – Unfortunately, we don’t even have a precedent for such an event 😛 I’d guess they’d first try to talk her down off the ledge, convince her to come back in the ballroom and stick around for the elimination, possibly even throw their weight around with the ol’ “you signed a contract” gig. If she still insisted on leaving, I’d guess they’d forego the elimination – but would probably go through the motions of putting some people in jeopardy, before getting down to two couples standing there and saying “Had there been an actual elimination, one of you would have gone home”. I think they’d still need to fill time, and would probably still have to act as if there was an elimination.
Dance-wise I don’t look forward to Mr. T or Charo’s performances, so that aspect is a wash. Based solely on their attitudes, however, I really hope its Charo that goes. I also notice that a lot of people are turned off by her, but I wonder if enough of those people voted for Mr. T or if they (like me) voted for someone else. I wouldn’t be surprised by either of their exits.
Nick and Erika are wildcards to me right now. Cindy, I actually like Erika and her dancing. I think she’s unexpectedly funny. I can see how her style might turn off people, though. My problem for the second season in a row is Gleb. I really, really hope he steps it up with their jive and shows another side of Erika. Otherwise they are in trouble.
With Nick- usually I wouldn’t be concerned about his elimination because Bachelor contestants always last too long IMO. Anecdotally, however, I have noticed that there are a lot of Bachelor fans that just don’t like him. I’m curious about the number of votes he’s actually getting.
I hope Charo doesn’t go! She’s like the only entertaining person in the show. She’s not annoying she’s just crazy. That is her thing. I’m always laughing the entire time.
Ah, the numbers post! Always look forward to this, so thank you, Princess H!
It makes me sad that Mr. T and Kym might be going home on Monday night. Yes, he isn’t much of a dancer, but I like Mr. T more than some other celebs this season. And I love Kym; always a class act and a very good pro to her partners.
The “general audience” doesn’t reside on Facebook. That’s a microcosm like any other.
I’m sure as hell no laughing, Jazz. She’s p****** the hell out of me.
FYI, re: Nick – you might see people who don’t like him, but that’s true with every bachelor and bachelorette. And I believe Steve noted that the ratings were up.
Anon, I think they’d be more likely to do it with Normani or Heather…whichever they deem to not be getting enough votes.
Nick, the difference between Erika and Heather is about 6k votes. But for Heather to truly be at risk, EVERYONE below her, including Mr T and Charo would have to get significantly more votes that that – I don’t see that happening just yet. Once Charo, Mr. T and Erika are gone, then I’m sure we’ll be revisiting this topic. 🙂
Thanks Colleen!
OMG Heidi I could not agree more!! No doubt it would also add some dramatic effect to the elimination lol ????
I always wonder if the top tier is grabbing 80% of the vote, with the bottom tier fighting to get 3% vs 2% in order to stay.
Not sure where to post this:
Have we seen the latest Las Vegas Odds yet? I remember seeing their odds preseason but that was it. It’s always interesting to see how the odds change once the competition starts heating up.
Once Charo, Mr T, & Erika are gone,which should be soon; the competition should get real. Heather & Normani, being matched with the C brothers will likely have the judges support to the end and I think the rest have decent fanbases to keep them around for a while. I’m hoping to see some new pros in the finals this time. Like Julianne, I’m excited to see what Sasha and Simone can do with freestyles. Emma & Rashad,too. We already know Sharna can KIll It if her partner can dance at all, and Bonner’s not bad.