DWTS Season 24, Week TWO – Dancing by the Numbers!

So, week 2 was…odd. Some things I understand – Rashad and Normani, Heather and Simone. But when you look at the scores, how on this planet do Nick and Charo get the same score? And how is Simone a full three points below the leaders and a point below Heather? Yeah, she had some hip hop in her routine, but so did Heather.

Anyway, there doesn’t appear to be a clear producer agenda just yet and that, combined with who danced in the last half hour really makes me wonder just who is getting the votes this season. It could make things very interesting through the rest of the season. They aren’t pushing the ringers super hard (yet) and that is…interesting. David getting the pimp spot is also interesting. Let’s take a look at the scores.

 

This is the point where I would start to worry about Erika…lucky for her Mr. T’s score is so low because she’s in the real danger zone. The people below her are ALL better known, some having icon status. Nancy, Nick, Charo, Mr. T and David all probably have more voters than her. The only question being is it enough for all of them to pass her? I’m going to say probably not this week.  Mr. T would have to get roughly 18,300 more votes per million votes cast. But I jump ahead…

 

 

And you’ll see that Mr. T isn’t a sure thing for elimination. He only needs 9.2k votes per million votes cast to get past either Nick or Charo.  This is going to be a tough call – 9.2k isn’t very much, but we’re talking about Charo and Nick.  I think if he beats anyone it’s going to be Charo as she’s kinda wearing on people (although she appears to have Bill Shatner in her corner).  I think Nick’s chunk of Bachelor Nation is still large enough to keep him safe…plus he’s funny. 🙂 If Mr. T doesn’t beat either Charo or Nick, he needs about 15.2k to get past David. I can almost guarantee that’s not going to happen.

And that brings us to Erika and Nancy. Nancy needs ONE more vote than Erika and I think she gets it, which make her safe.  Mr. T needs 18.3k more votes per million votes cast than Erika. Could be close!

Let’s assume for a moment that Mr. T gets the votes to be safe. The next lowest person on the totem pole are Charo and Nick. I’ve already said that I think Nick is safe, but what about Charo??

 

 

Charo only needs about 6k more votes per million votes cast to beat David and there’s no way in hell I see that happening. Charo was in the middle of the first hour and David had the pimp spot. I think that writing is on the wall. For now.  Where does Charo go from there? Well, Nancy and Erika. Like I said, I think Nancy beats Erika so that leaves Erika vulnerable to Charo. Charo only needs about 9.2k more votes per million votes cast in order to be safe over Erika.

So, IMO, we’re down to Mr. T, Charo and Erika.  Is there any way that Erika can be safe by beating someone above her on the leader board? Well, considering that the people above her are Simone, Bonner, Heather, Normani and Rashad? Not likely at ALL.

So, the question for me is, Is Erika getting enough votes to protect herself from Mr. T and Charo. And the answer, for me, is…probably? I think she’s probably safe thanks to that 18k more votes that Mr. T needs – that might be enough.

And that leaves us with Mr. T and Charo and a difference of 9,200 votes per million. Man. Which one will prevail?

Here’s my final wager:  Mr. T will be eliminated. If not him, then Charo. If they are both called safe, watch out Erika.  And get your scores up – you’re on a high dollar cast and you can’t afford to be “okay”. I suspect (but have no clue for sure) that David and Rashad are sucking up the available votes like a vacuum cleaner. When two, maybe three cast members seem dominant, that makes it VERY dangerous for everyone around them. That’s my gut feel for the cast right now. It could change. 😀