DWTS Season 24, Week THREE – Dancing by the Numbers!

Thanks to Derek and Julianne Hough for their fantastic performance the other night…and for blowing up my Derek twitter search. That was a struggle to get through. 🙂 Amazing dance – I loved it.

As for the rest of the dancing, no one struck me as horrible, but at the same time, I was only really impressed by Nancy and David.  I still wonder why Nick is getting so badly hosed every week. What is the deal? I have a hard time believing they are trying to give Peta an early exit – she’s a competitor and there’s no way she wants an early exit, baby or not.  And fact is, Nick is NOT a dancer like many of the women are and he’s doing pretty darn good for someone who is a complete novice. I think he was better than Bonner by a good bit (and Peta is doing better for him than Sharna is for Bonner), yet he got the same scores from Len and Bruno as Mr. T and Charo did. In what freakin’ universe?? I love Mr. T  – but he is not the dancer that Nick is, not even close. Come on, judges. Why is the bar set so high for Nick? You’re treating him like he’s a pro not living up to expectations, instead of Joe Bachelor who’s never danced before.

Courtney already discussed the lack of lift calling for Heather by CAI – beyotch please. Your game is old. And I could seriously live without Julianne going into raptures over Heather – she is a PROFESSIONAL DANCER dancing with another professional dancer. You need to be MORE critical and have more of a reaction when she doesn’t bring it. Jaysus.

What makes me kinda happy about this season is this feeling I have that it’s not going the way the producers may have intended.  I have no proof – and the producers may still work to change this – but I kinda feel like David and Rashad are running away with it.  It almost seems like the season Donald Driver won- the producers sure didn’t want that to happen, but it did anyway. I don’t think David will win, but I would not be surprised to see him and Rashad as the last two standing. The only question is if they are getting enough votes to make the producers reluctant to mess with it. We’re already seeing Rashad getting his scores right after the dance, short packages – that’s the Marilu treatment. Will that subtle manipulation continue, for him and David both?? I hope not. I would like to see a more organic season for a change…and really, so far, their manipulation has been pretty subtle, as far as I can tell.

Anyway, let’s look at the scores…

Mr. T and Bonner are at the bottom with Nick and Erika close behind. I’ve seen lots of people assuming that Mr. T is going this week…and I’m so not sure of that at all.  But first things first.

First question is – is Bonner getting 1 more vote per million votes cast than Mr.T?? I think probably yes. He’s not doing it for me, but I think he’s handsome enough that he’s still getting some votes. Plus there’s the whole showmance angle – those people are relentless in a disturbing way. But the fact that he’s tied with Mr. T, who is an icon, can’t be overstated.

So, the next question is, can Mr. T get the votes to get past either Nick or Erika?? He only needs 6,400 more votes per million votes cast – that is chump change. Now, I don’t think he’s getting past Nick, but he certainly could be getting past Erika. It’s a real possibility.

So, I think Nick beats Erika – and I think Mr. T isn’t catching him.   And I think Bonner gets 6,400 votes to get past Erika and he beats Mr. T by the one vote.  If true, this would make both Nick and Bonner safe. Considering that the people above the four of them are Rashad and David, I think it’s a fairly safe bet that it comes down to the four of them.

Just to be on the safe side, let’s look at Erika and Nick, assuming that Mr. T and Bonner are safe.

As you can see, that same small, 6,400 vote margin exists between Erika/Nick and Rashad – but there ain’t no way. The next option is David and the 15k vote margin. Again, ain’t no way. The other margins going up the leader board just get bigger and bigger and it’s not likely happening.  I think, for right now, the four most at risk are at the bottom of the leader board.

So, what this means is that I think that Erika and Mr. T will be in the bottom two, regardless of if they put someone else in jeopardy.  But which will go home?

I am kinda leaning toward Erika, believe it or not.  Most are saying Mr. T…but I still keep thinking Erika.  That’s what my gut keeps saying (and sometimes it lies).  I just keep forgetting she’s on the show.

Final answer: Erika is my first choice. If not her, then the T.