Dancing With The Stars Season 24, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!

So this week you have to ask yourself this question: Just how solid are Bonner and Sharna??

Are they getting a ton of votes or has everyone forgotten about them? You tell me, cuz I just don’t know.  I’m leaning toward people have forgotten him. He hasn’t made much of an impact, whereas I feel like the other potentially low hanging fruit (Nick) has made more of one – for getting screwed more than anything else. 🙂  But let’s look at the numbers.

Raise your hand if you think the judges (for whatever reason) thought that Nick would be the one going home this week and accidentally gave him a higher score than what they would have if they thought he was staying.  :::raises hand::: As you know, we’ve had much discussion over the last couple years about how much the judges know about the voting – if the producers tell them. I’ve always been of the mind that they tell LEN and Len sort of guides the narrative that the producers want to sell. Whether they tell him outright or they just give him hints, who knows? Anyway, I tend to think the judges buy their own BS half the time and had convinced themselves that Nick was leaving and that Erika was awesome. They really should read this blog – we’re right a good amount of the time. 😉

Anyway, Nick could actually make it through this week – it’s a tough call.  I almost wonder if we’re in “shocking elimination” territory – and I’m looking at Heather.  But I skip ahead. David is low man on the totem pole and I very seriously doubt he’s leaving just yet. Take a look.

David only needs about 3,300 more votes per million votes cast to beat Bonner and be safe – that should be a walk in the park for a guy who recently won a world series. Not only that, but he needs less than 10k to beat Rashad and about 16.5k to beat Nick and Heather.  See, this is why it gets interesting this week – I think that David and Rashad are raking in the votes. I think Rashad is probably getting enough votes to beat the spread for everyone above him except maybe Normani and Simone…and maybe even them. I think David could well be beating Bonner, Nick and Heather…and if I’m right about both of those things, then suddenly Bonner, Nick and Heather are your bottom 3. And this whole shebang becomes very difficult to call.

So, is David beating Bonner? I think yes. Is he beating both Nick and Heather? No idea. I am leaning toward yes. So, let’s assume he’s safe. What does Bonner need to be safe?

See, this is why it’s hard this week. Is Bonner beating Rashad? No. But also, that 13.2k more votes per million votes cast to get him past Nick and Heather is a lot harder for him than the 16.5k probably is for David.  Can he do it? He only has to beat one of them to be safe. Which one? Either? Neither?

Hmmmm. I’m really leaning towards neither, which means that Bonner would go home. I think that the Bachelor and Gleek beat a previously unknown bull rider…or at least Bonner can’t cover that spread.  I kind of can’t see a way around it – David beats Bonner, Rashad beats nearly everyone, Bonner can’t overcome a 13k spread to get past Nick and Heather.

Just for a minute, let’s pretend that Bonner is safe. I’ve already said I think Rashad is going exactly nowhere. So, what about Nick and Heather? How safe are they?

Their safety hinges almost entirely on David and Bonner and the strength of their fanbases. Rashad has certainly blown past that 6.5k more votes to beat them (unless a lot of people fell for the “lets call him safe early in the show” ploy by the producers), so forget him for a minute.  For Nick and Heather to be safe, they need ONE of the following things to happen:

  • They need for David to NOT get 16,500 more votes per million votes cast than them, OR;
  • They need for Bonner to NOT get 13,200 more votes per million votes cast than them, OR;
  • They need for Rashad to NOT get 6,500 more votes per million votes cast than them, OR;
  • One or both of them need to get 6,600 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy.

Okay, so I doubt that last one is happening but you never know. If it were, we are back to Bonner because there’s no way that Bonner is getting nearly 20k more votes than Nancy. The Rashad thing – no. David? Argh!!

Okay, my gut keeps saying that Bonner is the one going home. I think David beats Bonner, Rashad beats everyone except Simone and Normani, David may or may not beat Heather and Nick – but it doesn’t matter because I don’t think that Bonner does and David beats Bonner – clear as mud?

So, I’m going with Bonner being eliminated – mainly because 13.2k votes is kind of a lot for him. BUT, if Bonner, Rashad and David are all called safe, it comes down to Nick and Heather and are YOU certain that Heather is getting one more vote per million votes cast than Nick? I’m not positive. That’s when things could get interesting. Me thinking that Heather would be next is probably wishful thinking on my part and my second choice should be Nick. Should be. 😉

What do ya’ll think?