DWTS Season 25, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!
Welp. Here we are again. It’s still summer, so I’m going to keep this brief – hopefully – then I’m going outside.
Overall, I thought the show was really good this past Monday – I don’t have any real gripes other than I think TO was underscored by a point or two. I wonder why they seem to do that on purpose? It’s got to have been pointed out to them by NOW that they really almost always low ball the first dancer out of the gate, not just in week one, but in many/most weeks. WHY??? Seems stupid and artificial.
But other than that, I thought we had a pretty good night. No one really sucked. That happens from time to time, but usually week 2 is a real eye opener. We’ll see how it goes this week with two dances.
Anyway, here’s how the leader board stacked up:
I think that stacked up kinda how I expected it to, with a couple exceptions. Vanessa did far better than I expected her to do, as did Frankie, while Debbie and Drew didn’t do as well as I expected or hoped.
In looking at the cast, they all seem to be on a somewhat level playing field. That, combined with no one who was really crappy, does make it a bit challenging to determine which two might be going home. My inclination is that – with some exceptions – the eliminations will go in order starting at the bottom of the leader board. But let’s take a look at it a bit closer and see if my initial thoughts hold out.
Barbara is at the bottom of the leader board, so she is naturally at the biggest risk of elimination.
Now, I like Barbara and I threw a few votes her way, but there are enough misogynists in this country – STILL – that I suspect that she might not stick around. That would be a shame, as we need the lighthearted fun people on this show to counteract those who tend to get too into it and competitive. But Barbara has the nerve to find her partner – who is a black man – attractive, and as many people realize thanks to our current POTUS, that just won’t fly. It’s a damn shame, and the combination of racisim and sexism I’ve seen in reaction to Barbara is quite upsetting. But perhaps it’s good to realize that that mentality is still out there so that we can work towards change.
Anyway, mini-rant over. Barbara only needs 4,200 more votes per million votes cast to be safe over TO. That’s nothing. But…I don’t think Barbara can get past the TO/Cheryl combination, or the Drew/Emma combination. For that matter, Debbie is above her as well – it’s a tough row to hoe. (Inside Joke). If it were Sasha that were immediately above her, I think that Barbara might be safe. I don’t think Sasha really made an impact on the competition – she’s the person of the season who I have a tendency to forget. Never a good sign.
But, on the off chance that Barbara is safe, TO is the next person on the firing line.
I honestly don’t have a feel for how popular TO might still be. I know he was a controversial figure at one time, but is he popular? No idea. This is partly why I think the leaderboard order might be the way it goes. TO could be really popular, but so are Drew and Debbie.
Let’s break it down another way: there are some folks who are fairly obviously safe on Monday night. Who are they? Jordan, Lindsey, Vanessa and Nikki are almost certainly safe on Monday night. I don’t see any way that any of them are eliminated. Derek, Frankie and Nick are also almost certainly safe via a combination of fanbase and scores. You’ll note that I left out Victoria – I don’t think she has a guarantee of safety, although I don’t think she’s in danger this week. Val has his fans and she’s probably high enough on the leader board to be good for a bit. But she and Sasha cannot afford a bad dance. In Val’s case, I seriously doubt they would give him a bad score even if they deserved it because they can’t want him to leave too soon.
That leaves us with Barbara, Terrell, Drew and Debbie. Of the four, Barbara has the lowest score combined with possibly the smallest fanbase. Unfortunately, I think that combination will mean the end of the road for her. There is always a possibility that she got a lot of votes because people liked her, but I’m afraid I don’t have that much confidence in the audience. And if they did, who would go? I think it would be between Terrell and Drew and I’m leaning toward Terrell.
So, that’s my conclusion for Monday. As for Tuesday, I’m working on the assumption that Monday night’s scores and votes will determine who goes home on Tuesday, then Tuesday’s scores and votes will determine who goes home next Monday as usual. As a result, I’m going to close it here and you can look for a new DBTN on Tuesday afternoon.
It’s honestly so hard to picture anybody going home already-nobody did so horribly, in my opinion, in week 1 to already say “you’re going home” LOL That being said, I can see those bottom 4 as a possibility. The idea of losing two couples this week still seems wacky to me-hate that the producers are doing that so soon ????
It is hard to say who’s going home but I think it might be Debbie. With the work pace they are putting the cast through these first 3 weeks it will be a miracle if several don’t end up with injuries and are out early. Two dances and two shows week 2, plus they will only have 4 days before they have to do it all over again. Crazy! It will be interesting to see if the quality (dancing & choro) suffers.
Debbie will go, IMO.
Horrible running order+ most forgettable dance of the night+ doesn’t have too big of a fanbase +new pro, with small fanbase = recipe of elimination.
I’ll also be happy if that happens #fingerscrossed. Debbie is just trying to milk sympathy votes talking constantly about her Lyme disease.. its actually disrespecting to the people who suffers from the disease, the way Debbie is trying to milk it for votes.
Hope the rest are safe. I enjoyed the rest.
Thanks for the breakdown, as always.
I am indifferent towards Barbara; I didn’t have any particular reaction towards anything she did last Monday.
However, there was a similar stir last season with Bonner and his behavior towards Sharna, so why would people being bothered by Barbara for similar behavior be considered racist, sexist, ageist, etc?
I also think Barbara is going home, and if Sasha wasn’t so relatively far ahead of her she’d probably be the one leaving. I’m seeing a surprising amount of support for Drew considering how low he was on the leaderboard (not that I’m unhappy about the love for him!) so I think he’s okay for Monday’s elimination. 🙂
I also think it will be Barbara and Terrell. I saw a number of people upset that Terrell was low balled Monday, but even so not seeing many pledging support. The only variable for me is Cheryl vs. Alan as to whether Debbi might go instead of Terrell. I’m disappointed that Drew hasn’t shown much commitment so far, but I think he’ll be safe at least for Monday.I hope he and Emma got in enough practice time this week.
I also feel like it will be Barbara boweing out on Monday night, and the only scenario i can see shielding Barbara until Tuesday night is if Debbie withdraws from the competition. As much as it pains me, because I really want to see what Alan and Keo can cook up for Debbie and Barbara, but I just don’t see a future for them on the show beyond this week. On the off chance Barbara is safe and Debbie doesn’t withdraw, i think Terrell and Victoria* are in trouble. Terrell because his dance went first and in the grand scheme of things I don’t think I had seen much of him during bumpers or other contestant interviews, that coupled with an early running order, and the rest of the dance skill or entertainment value from other stars just peaked after his dance. Now why I think Victoria might be in danger is because of her running order coupled with what I like to call Laurie Hernandez syndrome (just constantly bubbly and positive), which isn’t bad, but it doesn’t quite set you apart in this cast of overabundance in personality. Also if Val overtalks Victoria in interviews it’ll be a very telling sign. I know this sounds like a long shot, but no one else really strikes me as in danger.
*Sasha also seems to fall in this Laurie Hernandez syndrome category, but I get the vibe that she’s pretty serious about the show. Next week will truly tell.
Personally I hope Debbie goes home if not Monday then Tuesday. Nothing against her, I just think she made a mistake doing the show on this particular season. It’s hard enough for her to rehearse and dance with her health issues but to be touring on top of that is too much and I feel like it showed. For her own health and wellbeing I think it’s best she leaves sooner rather than later. I predicted TO to go a few days back and I still wouldn’t be surprised. But it doesn’t look great for Barbara. Sasha has just enough of a cushion this week but if she doesn’t get better (I think she will for what it’s worth) then it’s only a matter of time. Of course Drew is getting support, he’s likeable and probably the most demographically recognised star of the cast. He’ll be around for a while yet no doubt.
I hope Terrell isn’t one of the ones going home because I want to enjoy seeing Cheryl for a while. Pretty sure Barbara will go, though, and I think Sasha will go, too. Debbie may hang on one more week.
Just excellent. I was so looking forward to this series starting up again!! Oh but how mixed I am for who is going home. It’s sad as I don’t want to see any of them go yet. Right now I’m getting the most negative vibes on Barbara, Sasha and Debbie.
I’ll miss Barbara if she leaves – today she’s been talking about giving her competition sleeping pills in the guise of ‘dance vitamins’. Lol there’d be outrage about her encouraging roofies if she said that on the show.
If they have to get rid of two this week, I wish they’d just eliminate them both on Tuesday after the two dances rather than one each night. Everyone has worked hard on learning two dances at least let them dance.
But does that mean there’d no further double eliminations this season?
I’m kind of confused, PH! Which one are you calling a ‘ho? Barbara or Debbie? Kidding! 😉
IMO its gonna be between Barabara, Terrell, Debbie and Drew
Yeah back to normal with Emma. I hoped they might finally realise her ability and popularity after winning the mirror ball with a non-dancer but it seems they don’t favor her.
Shame really
Geez Jada, not much challenge in narrowing it down to FOUR people.
Gee, Cali, perhaps because they said she was too old for him and one person even made a rather racist remark. READ THE COMMENTS before posting.
What makes you think that Drew is any less committed than anyone else, Rose1? There are people every single season that sign on while having other commitments – most of them handle it just fine.
Reminder – we don’t know what the scoring is for the second elimination. The leader board could change dramatically tonight, making some more safe than they are tonight.
Oh fer cryin’ out loud. Emma has not been hosed by getting Drew. She WANTED DREW. She knows him, wanted to dance with him and he’s on a VERY popular TV show in this country. Hardly screwed. Give it a rest already.
The female pros are just less likely to get ringers with some dance experience because most men don’t take dance in their early years like women do. Sad fact. Getting someone with no training but natural dance ability IS AN ACCIDENT. Rashad was an accident. They don’t audition celebrities to see how well they dance before they ask them on the show and assign them a partner. If someone is a football player, they’re either going to do well or not – no telling which way it will go.
I definitely like Barbara is the most obvious elimination of the night. It makes me say once again poor keo he’s such a good dancer and works so hard but every season they saddle him with the worst celebs on the show. It’s such a shame.
I can definitely see Debbie or T.O being the next eliminated. Debbie definitely wasn’t helped by her running order position or T.O he wasn’t bad tho but as everyone has mentioned may have been out of the spotlight just slightly too long.
I would also agree Sasha was forgettable. She comes from a show with a big fan base but she’s not the biggest star of the fan base and the show is now off air. So I don’t know how much that will help her. Also before you drag me for that I am of the PLL fan base. She could surprise me but I do see her eliminated in the earlier half of the show.
Victoria another top mention well she’s a mystery too. Seems to be really glad to be here, has val as a partner, an amazing backstory and wasn’t terrible. This is a combo for making to the upper half of the competition normally. But this season has a lot of great potential and could be very surprising and depending on if TPTB push a val agenda as usual or not she could be an earlier elimination. Guess we will find out it’s going to be an exciting seasons.
Night one has me rooting for Frankie and Jordan.
Drew is a mystery I think he’s got potential to improve but will he? I’d be surprised to see him eliminated this week but then again there’s a part of me that would be.
This elimination is such an interesting one to me because, with the scores so close, there are alot of people that could conceivably go home and we really don’t have a feel yet for who will vote for what celebrities.
Of the bottom four, I think Drew is safe. Maybe it’s personal bias because I like him so much, but my feeling is there is a lot of cross over from his show to DWTS and he made a good impact personality-wise. I also think Shark Tank cross-over could help Barbara, but I wonder if people’s reaction to her interaction with Keo doomed her.
Although Barbara has a good chance of going home, I personally think the bottom two is Debbie and TO- both flew under the radar, didn’t have memorable dances, and I’m not sure about their fanbases. I would rather have Debbie go between the two, but I’m going to guess TO.
Adding to what Heidi said – yeeeeah, Emma & Drew was a mutually-decided thing, they knew each other beforehand (despite what their first-meeting package would have you believe), and in the coming months it’s going to make a lot more sense why they ended up together. It’s very much a “you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours” situation. As I’ve said to others regarding the Emma/Drew partnership – make what you will of that hint. But I’ve been told there was also a Twitter exchange between the two last year, whereby both expressed how awesome they thought it would be for Drew to do the show and be paired with Emma – so I’m having a hard time understanding where all this “Emma got screwed again!!! Wahhhhhhh!!!!” nonsense is coming from.
And really, when you compare Drew’s first dance to Bill E.’s, Billy Dee’s, Mike’s, & Rick’s first dances…Drew came out pretty decent. I think the only two partners Emma has had that looked better straight out of the gate were Rashad (and I agree with Heidi – I think he was an “accident” and TPTB were not anticipating that he would do as well or be as popular as he was) and Hayes (who was a fluke as well, because Emma wasn’t even supposed to be on season 21 and only got brought in to meet head count once Peta had to bow out). So again – NONE OF THIS “POOR EMMA” CRAP. My god, she gets one really good partner and suddenly her fans are spoiled…
:::edit – if you feel you have to parse your comments based on some getting through and some not, I suggest you go elsewhere cuz I’ll just block that crap. ~Heidi:::
As for tonight: #1, I think there will be a natural elimination, even with Drew’s injury if he’s unable to go. (That will probably get somehow addressed tomorrow night.)
Prediction… Heart says Barbara, head says Debbie. I think you’ve talked me into it. The recipe is just too perfect, and, frankly, unless she brings the opener strong tonight, this one might be more of the same.
Last season there was an emphasis on the Stars with the most practice time in the dance studio being the champs. This season it seems like the Star with the least amount of practice time, and a lot of practice time that is not actually spent dancing, is Debbie. Even though I am a proud member of the Electric Youth Army, based on that DWTS formula to success Debbie leaves us tonight or tomorrow.
Won’t accept anyone saying Emma got the short straw this season. She got arguably the biggest fanbase ringer of the season and someone she’s wanted as her partner for ages. She has a mirrorball now and I really don’t think she’ll care that she won’t be getting another one this season.
Adding on more re: Emma – besides what Courtney is hinting at, I have seen multiple tweets directed at Derek by Drew over the last few months. It’s quite clear to me that Drew and Jonathan are friends with Derek (and possibly Mark) and have been for a while. Who on the show is Derek close with?? Emma and Sasha, to name two. This was so not an attempt to screw over Emma. That’s a ridiculous thought actually.
It’s been ONE week, Nukegrrrl.
Er, NO, M8 – not a fanbase “ringer”. That’s a step over the line into hyperbole. Someone instantly recognizable to EVERYONE is a fanbase ringer – see Jennifer Grey and Donny Osmond. Drew is quite popular, but I would never go that far. He’s certainly not better known that Nick Lachey. He’s more *relevant* than Nick Lachey, but not better known.
I think it’s pretty transparent that the celebs at the bottom of the leader board and also in the first of the running list last Monday and looks like at least 2 are in the first out of the gate tonight, could possibly go home this week.
I’m hoping that Debbie & Alan at least get to dance both nights. I threw all my votes to them last week. I think Alan has great potential as a good choreographer, but he obviously won’t get to show it much this season, since a Waltz doesn’t give way to “burning the floor” very much (although I thought their Waltz was beautifully executed). And, if they last until Tuesday night, I will be happy to see their A.T. tonight and Quickstep tomorrow night.
I agree that Drew and Emma most likely have a bigger fan base than Barbara & Keo or Debbie & Alan. Although, Keo and Barbara get along quite well, I also agree that I would have liked to see him with a partner with good potential to challenge him to tap into his creativeness. I think Keo is a very nice man and a gentleman at that, and certainly has had a great attitude. I look at the heart in a person.
We will be sad if it is Barbara. She was a pleasant surprise. Honestly, she was one of a handful that I remembered at the end of the show. She made us laugh.
I’m sure TPTB want Sasha to stick around as long as possible. It has just been announced that a new PLL spinoff along with fellow co-star Janel Parrish is premiering on the Disney owned Freeform channel.
[…] If you want to hear my thoughts on the matter and you have some time to kill before the show, you can read Dancing by the Numbers. […]
That’s something the network and producers would have known for a while, Sandy, and they didn’t do her any favors last week.
No coincidence that it’s been announced this week mind.