DWTS Season 25, Week 2 (Monday Night) – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, if that wasn’t the most f@#$@# up bunch of scoring then I don’t know what is. Maybe I shouldn’t tempt fate and make it even worse tonight, but damn – that was just bad. Who in the world besides a delusional fangirl believes that Vanessa and Victoria should be tied with Jordan at the top of the leaderboard with Lindsey a full three points below them?  Don’t get me wrong, I like all the people involved, but there ain’t no way those two ladies are on par with Jordan and that far ahead of Lindsey, EVEN with the breaking of hold.  These judges desperately need Mark, with Derek very unlikely to ever return, and they are NOT doing a good job of rewarding the best choreographer they have – who choreographed an excellent dance last night. And Lindsey’s dress was just freakin’ amazing. No idea how they did that, but man!

My only critique of Mark was the break in hold and spending a beat too long in the “cocoon”.  Victoria? Her legs were too soft throughout the dance (watch her kick) – yes, I get why that might be the case, but in the past the judges went on and on (and on and on and on) about needing to score differently abled contestants the same as everyone else, yet are doing nothing but gushing over Victoria. I think Victoria is a lovely girl (and anybody that prevents Val from talking gets my vote), but fair is fair. I understand we’re still on the Val Character Rehab tour, but let’s give it up, shall we?? As for Vanessa – another woman that (so far) I REALLY like. In fact, I think she would have a shot at winning if paired with Derek or Mark. But Maks isn’t quite up to the task. I’ve got an appreciation for Maks, thanks to his brother – but that dance couldn’t touch what Jordan or Lindsey did.

Anyway, how about Frankie – that dude is a delightful surprise!! He’s going to charm his way in to the top 4, possibly taking out a C-bro when he does. I also really like Nikki and Drew and Debbie is also growing on me. Honestly, I really like the entire cast with the possible exception of Terrell (and he sent a very nice tweet today about Barbara that explained his comments, to me anyway) – but what I don’t like is the extreme pimpage of Nick, Vanessa and their partners. Do you realize that Nick and Vanessa get DOUBLE the camera time of all the other couples thanks to the producers need to have them all together in the shots after each of them dances?? Meanwhile, other couples get no Erin time at all, like Debbie. This sort of subtle manipulation, combined with the crap ass scoring is what will ultimately make me cut this show from my list of things to watch.  And it’s a shame because I think they might have the best overall cast they’ve had in quite some time. But they seem determined to ruin it.  :::sigh:::

And I just realized that I’ve forgotten about Sasha who was also ahead of Lindsey with a not-nearly-as-good dance. Never a good sign.  The question that was running around in my brain last night was something that someone else noticed last season and I didn’t pay much attention to it. I don’t remember who it was, but the thought is that, essentially, if you dance in the first hour, you are underscored. If you dance in the second hour, you score much better – whether you deserve it or not. So, I made a table to check it out…and it seems to be, for the most part, true.

You’ll notice there are exceptions – Derek and Terrell both were in the second half last night and were still scored on the low side, but other than them, everyone scored well above dancers who did just as well, but who danced in the first hour (Nikki and Lindsey).  In week 1, it was also largely true with the exception of Jordan who might have actually been in the second hour thanks to the opening number.  But everyone in the second hour scored a 19 or higher (except Nick), while everyone in the first hour scored an 18 or lower. This feels somewhat compelling to me. Of course there are exceptions – there’s always going to be one dancer that does so good they can’t find a reason to screw them over…and one who does so poorly that you can’t pimp them without it being very obvious.  I would argue that it’s now becoming obvious that either there is some plan in place here, or that the judges brains just get lazy in the second hour of the show. But I’ll keep on keeping track. 😉

Anyway, on to the leader board:

And this is a leaderboard that is just all f*cked up, in my opinion. Sheesh. Well, with Nick and Derek on the bottom, things might get interesting. What has to happen for them to be safe??

Nick and Derek only need about 3,700 more vote per million votes cast to get past either Drew, Debbie or Terrell. That is NOTHING.  I’m quite sure that Nick will be safe with little trouble – He only needs ONE more vote than Derek does and he might just get it to be safe. That leaves Derek.  Him I’m not so sure about. The people above them are Drew, Debbie and Terrell. If he’s going to beat anyone, it will probably be Terrell. I was left with a good impression of both Drew and Debbie last night, and I wager both are more solid in terms of fanbase than Terrell is. What Terrell does have is Cheryl – but has Cheryl been gone too long? Or is her fanbase still kicking?? Terrell also got a very unflattering edit last night.

I’m thinking that both of our basement dwellers, Nick and Derek are going to end up being safe tonight. I think Nick beats Derek and Terrell at least, which makes him safe. I think Derek beats Terrell – not sure about Drew or Debbie, but I’m leaning toward him not beating those two. So, what do Drew, Debbie and Terrell need to do to also be safe?

Drew, Debbie and Terrell only need 3,400 votes per million votes cast to get past Lindsey and Nikki.  Again, that is nothing. I’m somewhat worried about both of them, although I don’t think Terrell gets past both of them – possibly Nikki.  I tend to think that Drew definitely gets past Nikki and possibly Lindsey. I don’t think that Debbie gets past Lindsey, but possibly Nikki.

Drew, Debbie and Terrell also only need one vote more than the other two to be safe. In that trio, I think Drew wins the day, which would make him safe.

That’s part of what makes ties good.  You can look at those tied and guess who wins in the votes and decide those people are safe.  So, Nick versus Derek – I think Nick gets the one votes. With Drew, Debbie and Terrell I think Drew and Debbie both get the one votes. And between Lindsey and Nikki I think Lindsey gets the vote.  T

That means that Nick, Drew, Debbie and Lindsey would be safe for sure. That leaves us with Derek, Terrell and Nikki. I think Derek beats Terrell. That would leave us with Terrell and Nikki – and I hope like hell that Terrell can’t beat the 3,400 vote spread to take out Nikki.

So, what do Nikki and Lindsey need to do to ensure their safety??

Nikki and Lindsey need about 7,300 more votes per million votes cast in order to beat Sasha and Frankie. I think they can both beat Sasha…but not Frankie. I suspect Frankie is killing it with the audience. He’s great.

Anyway, I think that Nikki and Lindsey will be safe.  I don’t think Sasha is in any danger since Derek would need to get 14,600 more votes per million votes cast and Terrell would have to get 11,000 more votes per million votes cast.

Ultimately, I think it might come down to Terrell and Derek with a potential surprise of either Nikki or Sasha in there. I hope I’m wrong about that.   Let’s look at it in a slightly more coherent manner. For Nikki (and Lindsey) to be safe, ONE of the following must happen:

  • Lindsey does NOT get one more vote per million votes cast, OR;
  • Nick OR Derek do NOT get 7,300 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • Drew, Debbie or Terrell do NOT get 3,700 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • Nikki gets 7,300 more votes per million votes cast than Sasha or Frankie.

I think she does not beat Lindsey or Frankie, but I think she can beat Sasha AND I don’t think that Derek or Debbie beat her – I could be wrong about that last one, but I feel good that not all of it will fail and she’ll end up being safe, as will Lindsey with her.

I look closely at Nikki, Lindsey and Sasha because they are somewhat unknown (it’s all relative) compared to the big sports figures and former boy bander. So, Sasha needs ONE of the following things to happen in order to be safe:

  • She needs Nikki to NOT get the 7,300 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Sasha needs for Frankie to NOT get the one more vote per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Sasha needs for Drew, Debbie or Terrell to NOT get the 11,000 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Sasha needs for Nick or Derek to NOT get the 14,600 more votes per millon votes cast than her.

When you look at it like that, it’s easier to believe that Sasha will be safe at least due to Derek, Debbie and/or Terrell. Perhaps that’s the reason for the overscoring??

So, at the end of the night, I’m going with Terrell as being the person eliminated. Second choice is Derek, with an outside chance of a surprise with either Nikki or Sasha; Nikki before Sasha, since she’s lower on the leaderboard.

What do you all think???