DWTS Season 25, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!
You really want me to believe that SIX couples all got a 24 on the same night?? That’s utterly ridiculous.
I also am having a hard time with a top three that consists of Jordan, Lindsey and…Victoria?? Very nice girl and all, but in no way was she a point ahead of Lindsey and 3 points above the rest of the pack. Makes you wonder if she’s in a bit of trouble. I don’t find her much more memorable than Sasha, sad to say. And the producers are certainly more invested in Val than they are Gleb, for some strange reason.
Now that you mention it, Frankie, Jordan, Lindsey and TO were the ones that are still sticking with me several days after the show aired. Not a great sign for the rest, I must say. Drew and Nikki are up there as well – and kudos to Artem and Emma for making sure that their celebs don’t fade into the woodwork. Neither is coasting and both are doing some good work here. Both did a brilliant job showcasing their celeb and doing something to get the audience talking. They are not coasting.
That doesn’t mean they’ll be safe…but I do think that Jordan, Lindsey and Victoria are our “safe” ones this week. What does the leaderboard look like? Well, like I was saying – pretty damn simple.
So, Nick is the low man on the totem pole. And there are 6 people above him all with the same score. The question is: does Nick have the ability to get enough votes more than any of that 6 to be safe? What kind of votes are we talking about?
So, Nick needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than the 6 people immediately above him on the leader board – Frankie, Nikki, Sasha, Vanessa, Drew and TO. Question is: does he have the juice to beat any of those people?
I’m thinking there are one or two that he might be able to pass. I know I called Sasha as the one to be eliminated last week and nothing has changed to make me thing she’s any safer this week. Nikki is the only other one in that group that I feel like could be in danger.
Thing is, when someone is put in jeopardy it can go one of two ways. Typically (or as of the last time I studied it), if you are put in jeopardy, it means that you’re not long for this world. There are, of course, exceptions to this rule. But Nick’s problem is that he’s been there more than once – so it’s only a matter of time, IMO, before he’s gone. But the producers putting you in jeopardy does often stimulate votes. Is that working this time? Hell if I know. 😉
At the end of the day, I think it comes down to Nick, Sasha and Nikki. One of those three isn’t long for this show. We already know that Nick needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than the group above him, but what about that group? Who is most likely to be safe??
Well, I don’t think there is any way that that group gets 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey. But they don’t have to – they only need ONE more vote per million to be safe over the others in their group. So, out of Frankie, TO, Vanessa, Nikki, Sasha and Drew, who are the kids getting the votes? Well, I think Frankie and Drew always were getting the votes. I think, after last week, TO is getting the votes for a while longer. He sure won me over. That leaves us with Vanessa, Nikki and Sasha. I think Vanessa is doing fine – she’s only in trouble if crazy fans decide that Maks is very upset to be dancing with her…or vice versa. I feel like she’s still good for a bit.
Once again, we are left with Nikki, Nick and Sasha – honestly, I feel like Nikki is safe and it’s going to come down to Nick and Sasha. But your guess is as good as mine. For Nikki to be safe she needs ONE of the following things to happen:
- Nikki needs for Nick to NOT get the 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- Nikki needs for ONE of Sasha, Vanessa, TO, Frankie and Drew to NOT get ONE more vote per million votes cast than her, OR;
- Nikki needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey.
And so on. That last one is unlikely to happen, but I can certainly see Sasha not getting more votes than her. And if Sasha is, is Nick getting the 7,400? I have a hard time believing that he still has that kind of fanbase. My gut is saying that Nikki is safe.
Which leaves us with Nick and Sasha. Nick and Sasha, Sasha and Nick. No idea. One part of me is saying that Nick is finally done, but Sasha is just such a non-event for me. Nick is too, but he’s memorable in his badness, not to mention that he’s getting double the screen time of everyone other than his wife. That being said, the show probably can’t support three fam members beyond week 5 and the fam fans are more likely to go with Maks and Val over Peta. Mores the pity.
I kinda feel like Nick is done…but ask me again in 5 minutes and it will be Sasha. If it’s either one of those two, I’ll call this week a win for me. If not, well, it’s just impossible. 🙂
I sure hope it is Nick going. He is no “Drew Lachey” in his dancing. Plus I can’t stand this married couple thing. I sure hope they stop it for future seasons. As for Victoria, she is lovely and sweet but she can’t compete with Jordan or Lindsey. Val’s choreography is in no way even close to what Lindsay and Mark are creating. Plus he is no way as creative as Derek was for Amy or even Sharna for Noah.
Couldn’t agree more Heidi!!! I think Nick is done…or Sasha.
I’m going to optimistically predict Nick this time, although if he does go that will mean his wife’s support will increase. He really is the weakest link though and I see zero chemistry between him and Peta. I think he’ll walk away from the experience with great ease lol.
If not him, then I’d predict Terrell. I think Sasha’s fans will keep her in the game for a while yet. I’ve been wrong every week so far. This season has been a tough one to figure out other than we know they are desperate to keep the married couples in tact and they’re giving artificial scores to Victoria too.
Please let it be Nick. I’m done with the married couple thing. Nick is not a good dancer, and out of those left, he is the weakest. Yes, Sasha isn’t memorable, but she is, to me, just a bit better than Nick to keep her in the show.
I do agree that Lindsey, Jordan, Drew and Frankie are safe. They all are improving every week, work at it, and enjoying every minute of it. Their partnerships are perfect. Being boo hoo week, I found myself crying only during Lindsey package and dance. Mark’s choreography was fantastic, and the dance was beautiful to watch. I keep rewatching it and cry every time.
I was concerned whether Drew could do a good jive and was glad to see he did. Having Jonathan join was a brilliant idea. Erin said he had been offered a spot on the show and he turned it down. If that’s true, I’m glad. Not because I wouldn’t want to see him on the show, but I wouldn’t want to have the brother vs brother thing along with the married couples thing.
Terrell might have bought himself another week or two, but it wouldn’t bother me to see him go after Nick. Or if Nick and Sasha go over the next 2 weeks, then he can go after both.
Gleb isn’t giving Sasha the choreography she needs to stand out some from the rest. That will be her downfall.
Vanessa is either crying or giggling all the time and it’s old. Make is still doing is time wasting and Vanessa does a lot of bouncing around and not enough of whatever dance she should be doing.
Frankie just keeps going. He’s fun to watch and I see him in the top 5.
I like Nikki and I like Artem, so I hope she doesn’t go. I think last week got her to open up and show herself more and that could work in her favor.
Like I’ve said before, Jordan has changed my opinion of having Disney kid on the show. HOWEVER, he wouldn’t be the Disney kid without having the acting/singing/dance talent that every one of them have. And add a Broadway play to his resume and there’s not much lacking in him. Yes, he’s good, but shouldn’t he be?
As for Victoria, to overcome the odds she was given early in life and be where she is now is nothing short of amazing. But she shouldn’t be one of the top 5 because of it. Val couldn’t do a charleston this week so he was changed to jazz? Really? So he has a dance with no rules to make it easier on him. I think Victoria would have loved the challenge but I believe Val didn’t want to put too much effort into it, so he cried at TPTB and had it changed. She’s probably around a few more weeks, but I won’t be disappointed when she goes. There is no logical reason TPTB can pimp her to get her to the finals over Lindsey, Jordan, Frankie and maybe even Drew. But then again, when do they do anything logical?
I think it will be Nick and Sasha in jeopardy and I hope Nick goes. If he doesn’t, we will unfortunately be subjected to his non-dancing for awhile. If he stays, TPTB will start a full on press to keep him until at least after Terrell, Nikki and maybe even Victoria is gone which would continue to make it so obvious how they manipulate everything all the time. Will they ever wake up and learn people don’t like that? Unfortunately, the answer to that is no.
Oh, please let it be Nick Lachey going home! He doesn’t want to be there and I believe the others all still do. Let Maks be the Chemertroyd breadwinner for a bit. And kill the “married couple compete” schtick and then salt and burn it so it can’t ever return!
If/when Sasha and Nikki are booted out, their “huge fanbases” will cry loudly that the show is rigged. At least the season was over by the time the Harmonizers got on that horse!
I’m not at all sure why anyone would assume that Nick and Vanessa’s fans are a package deal. I think that is rarely true. Very rarely. I doubt very much the general audience sees it that way. Nick is the boy bander and likely the one with the fanbase. If it were ME doing the voting and I had gone in as a Nick fan, I wouldn’t automatically just start voting for Vanessa. Just like I don’t automatically vote for Mark when Derek isn’t on the show. Sometimes I do, sometimes I want to go to bed instead. 🙂 I don’t automatically go to Julianne’s movies because I’m a Derek fan. It just doesn’t work that way, IMO, for adults.
Now, if you’re talking crazy people like some of the C-bros fans, it might be a different story – but the C-boys don’t have the juice to win without great partners. None of the pros do these days.
I kind of wonder if they will put Nick in jeopardy with Vanessa. Cuz that’s how they tend to be, you know?
I am old enough to be Nick’s mother but back in the day of the boy banders, my daughter was late high school/early college so I was up to speed on the subject. Nick was my favorite out of all of them. So much of a favorite, that at a mother/daughter event, when I was asked my favorite celebrity, I wrote down Nick on my card. When my daughter was asked who is your mother’s favorite celebrity? She turned her card over and she had wrote Nick Lachey. In saying all of that, have I voted for Nick on dwts? No, I haven’t even given him one vote.
The reasons are many. I don’t like the married couple manipulation. I don’t like The Fam. I remembered his movements from the boy band days and I thought he would probably be bad and he is. He doesn’t want to be there, it is so obvious. So while in the past he has been a favorite, there is exactly zero incentive for me to give him votes on dwts.
I hope Sasha goes home. She is forgettable to me in the personality and dancing departments. Nikki is my next wish to go. Victoria is cute but she really can’t do much and I’m always worried that she’s going to slice her leg open or that Val is going to hurt her.
IMO, I find Nick cute, charming, funny and makes fun of himself. He was always the worst dancer and knew it. I think his dancing has improved. I actually gave him some votes. Like PH said, it didn’t make me vote for Vanessa, although I find her dances entertaining because she appears to love it so much!
My faves right now are Jordan, Lindsey and Frankie. Jordan needs to stop with the winks and finger pointing like what Mark used to do. Irritating and appears too cocky to some people.
I really liked Drew’s dance with his twin brother last week!. It was so much fun amongst all the tears!
Yes, time for Nick to leave the building. He clearly is just not that into DWTS. (Which is just fine.)
Am loosing some enthusiasm for Vanessa as well, though. She talks a great, positive, rah rah team! interview but the friction between her & Maks is showing. It is helpful to respect the partner you are working so closely with. I’ve been wondering if she could actually request another pro? She deserves a good experience and a chance to grow. She is capable.
If not Nick, then I’m hoping it’s Sasha. She doesn’t feel committed to the experience either. Is she doing anything else now? (rehearsals/trainings?) She seems to have some natural ability but is not putting in the work to “wow” us. Meh.
Hoping Nikki stays. Saw the long ET interview and she is bonding so nicely with Artem. They really do respect each other and she is learning to use her body in new ways & trust Artem. I really like these two together and want to see more growth. Please VOTE, Bella Army!
TO made a breakthrough on an impt week. Good job Cheryl! I got teary & believe he can hold on a few more weeks.
Personally like Drew better than Frankie but am clueless as to who has the most staying power. Both are fun & have potential.
For the win, it’s Lindsey for me. She is genuinely sweet, quirky, upbeat, hardworking and has done really well with everything Mark has given her. It feels like this experience will be life changing for her both personally & professionally. Couldn’t ask for more.
A lot of fans are just loving Jordan. I am one of the ones that just does not connect to him. Love to watch his dances with Lindsay, they are lovely, but I’m just not a supporter. Will he make the finale? Yes, but hoping he’ll be in the #2 spot.
As much as I’d like to see Vanessa beat out her husband I get the feeling she might be the next jeopardy safeguard so to speak. I imagine Sasha getting eliminated with Vanessa in jeopardy this time. I think the blatant discomfort shown by Vanessa after her dance might’ve been enough of a turn off for those who were voting for just her (in the sense that a mercy elimination might be necessary because of her tumultuous relationship with Maks). Eh, the only alternative would be Nick in jeopardy (a la Jana Kramer) for a third time, which would just be sad at this point. I truly think Sasha’s going home, but one of the Chmerlachey’s is gonna be in jeopardy.
oops!
Literally forgot Victoria. Love her, love her spirit. Not sure this experience at this point in her life is really helpful. Maybe if she waited another year she could have gotten more out of it and gone farther. I don’t see her improving that much. Possibly she can make it to week 8 or 9 with the C Bros patented pimping program, but hopefully not the finale. Just being real.
Agree that it’ll be either Nick or Sasha leaving this week. Hoping that it’s Nick because at least Sasha wants to be there. I don’t see her sticking around much longer (and this is coming from a PLL fan), but I’d hate to see her gone before Nick.
I have this gut feeling that it’s Nick tonight. I had the same feeling with Derek (even though at the time I wanted it to be Nick or TO, but after last week TO can stay a few weeks I’m okay with that) even though I was hoping that I was wrong. I feel like last week after eliminating Derek they are kinda seeing Nick as a lost cause. He’s at the bottom of the leaderboard and yes he’s a boybander but I don’t feel like he has the.. steam behind him one could say that others like Nick Carter, Joey Fatone, etc. have had.I think putting him in the bottom was one last hail mary to see if that would boost up his votes enough. I don’t think it did. I’m predicting if it is him they make it a bottom 2 between him and Vanessa. Gives her a voting boost by making her look like she’s in trouble voting wise (and maybe she is) since after Maks gate it seems as though she’s lost some traction and in the process Nick is the sacrificial lamb to ensure one of them stays around awhile yet. If it goes that way then I feel very confident with Nick being the one saying goodbye tonight. Now if it’s Nick and then Sasha or Nikki.. my confidence drops to like 60/40. I could see them throwing Sasha into the bottom 2 to stimulate her votes since they have a reason to want to keep her around she’s apart of ABC, has a new show, etc. Nikki they have no reason to keep around. Ugh.. I knew eliminations would start getting hard quick but man I was not ready for it.. especially knowing that two better dancers in Sasha and Nikki could go before Nick who… I honestly think was the weakest dancer of the season week 1. I just hope that they used just Derek as a shield to keep Nick in this long but now with Derek gone they are saying you are on your own even though I’m still mad a week later that Derek was eliminated.
I’d be surprised if it is not Nick. I don’t see Maks and Vanessa partnership lasting much longer. Portraying the romantic chemistry needed in a “Someday My Prince Will Come” waltz may be hard to pull off given they haven’t been all that friendly. She may get another week or so if they quite predictably put both her and Nick in jeopardy tonight. And while I do think her scores were too high given the choice between Victoria and more Chemerlachey drama? I’d much prefer seeing Victoria dance for a few more weeks.
Nick, Sasha, and Terrell are the ones I want to go next. I don’t care what order.
Still hoping every week that Jordyn doesn’t get Sabrina’d and sent out early.
@ Brittany C #14: Re: “Nikki they have no reason to keep around,” but Disney’s been rumored as wanting to buy or takeover WWE for several years. Disney also shares a streaming distributor now with WWE. That’s my guess as to why TPTB are putting John Cena on stage after Nikki’s dances, and probably why they’d want to keep Nikki around for awhile.
Nukegrrrl, you forget that WWE and E Network both have deals in place with NBC. The “Total Bellas” social media accounts were promoting the premiere of This Is Us despite Nikki competing on DWTS at the exact same time a few weeks ago which said it all to me. The only reason they brought Cena up on stage was for ratings and media buzz because he’s a big name. I’m struggling to believe it’s a coincidence that Nikki has been getting many early running order slots when she’s the one member of the cast with NBC ties. Make no mistake, her going tonight over Sasha and Nick would be considered a huge win for TPTB just like Derek last week.
Thanks for the update, M8! That’s crazy, but totally believable, that “Total Bellas” social media accounts were promoting NBC’s “This Is Us” even though Nikki was dancing that night.
I also agree with your last line – I think she’s in sacrificial lamb limbo, just like Derek was (poor Derek).
I’m praying to the DWTS gods that Nick and Peta are eliminated tonight and TO and Cheryl are safe for another week (fingers crossed).
I can’t see Nick doing anything more performance or dance wise that’ll make me go “Wow that Nick is amazing.” I don’t even think he can do amazing/crazy lifts with Peta because of his body/frame and Peta is def. fit for a lift this season.
Maybe Derek and Sharna voters carried their votes onto TO and Cheryl if they didn’t stop voting all together after the last show.
Also, I just realized that I thought next week would be Halloween week and team dances, but there is 1 more week before Halloween…so I wonder if they’ll do a movie night or iconic dances night.
No worries Nukegirrl and I agree with your last line as well. Her and T.O seem like the final two “lambs” that can be dispatched before they have no choice but to start losing their favourites, because they won’t be able to dislodge the likes of Frankie with the support he’s generated. I notice she’s dancing last tonight, would they want her dancing last if she’s safe knowing that it may well keep her safe next week as well? Since the current voting/elimination process came into effect in season 18, only one couple has ever been eliminated on the same night that they danced last in the running order (Willow Shields). We’ll see how things play out tonight.
EmnEm I know you’re a Cheryl fan so here’s some good news, I definitely think TO’s story and dance last night bought him at least another week. It touched me and I’m sure it touched enough other people that he got a nice vote boost.
I’m surprised at how many people think Nick’s not into this or ready to go home. He’s not my favorite by any stretch, but IMO he looks like he is honestly trying, putting in the work and attempting to improve- he’s just not a good dancer at all. I assumed Victoria’s score had more to do with the judges getting caught up in her amazing story, but we’ll see how they score her this week.
TO and Sasha do the least for me, so if I had a preference I’d have it be one of them. Heidi’s bottom two of Nick and Sasha feels right to me, though. Based solely off last week, I’m going to go with Sasha’s non-event of a dance sending her home.