DWTS Season 25, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!

DWTS is on the verge of boring the shit out of me once again.

Why, you ask? Well, they just seem so OBVIOUS to me. Perhaps they’re obvious to everyone which is why they’ve fallen below 10 million viewers for the first time EVER this season. But really, how many times do we have to see this scenario play out: they cast the show, sometimes with an obvious gimmick they are invested in (the Chmerlacheys) and sometimes just someone who is ABC family who they need to pimp. THEY, the producers, are invested in it for one reason or another and therefore they feel the need to pimp the crap out of it to try to get everyone else buying it as well.  It DOESN’T WORK OUT, so they are scrambling. They can’t just let the show evolve organically, so they think (tragically) that they must have a Chmerkovskiy in the finale – so they go to plan B: pimp the crap out of Val’s partner. Yes, Val was actually Plan B for a change. LOL. Does it occur to NO ONE on that show that if Val was that great he wouldn’t need all that help?

It’s ridiculous. Maks has actually earned his way to the finale on a few occasions without producer help – Mel B, Kirsti Alley are two that spring immediately to mind. So why not let the boys WORK for it like everyone else does?? I kind of feel like the producers of this show are in a Hollywood bubble where they talk to each other and convince themselves that we sheep still watching this show are just too stupid to figure out for ourselves who we like and who we want to vote for. And that we’ll never see the man behind the curtain.

And, sadly, in a lot of instances they are right about the stupid. But what would happen if they just let the show evolve organically?? Derek would have 8 or 9 MBTs instead of only 6?? Maybe. But perhaps that should be a wakeup call that Derek is your most valuable asset…or he’s a liability.  He’s become too big to be a pro. Stop using him for your own agenda and screwing his partners over. Don’t wait until he says “fuck it” and leaves on his own. AND DON’T TRY TO RECREATE HIM in pros who don’t have a fraction of his choreography/teaching talent and who still haven’t figured out how to work DWTS. Derek was not pimped to be the best pro ever on this show – it just happened. He walked on to the show and stole the spotlight from a certain Ukranian. So what would happen if they just let the pros be pros and work their butts off? Well, I imagine that right now Lindsay, Witney and Mark would be a LOCK for the finale, and possibly Emma as well.

But can you honestly say that any of those three are a serious lock for the finale when suddenly Victoria and Val are getting 9’s (10s this week I’m sure) for dances that can’t even touch what Mark, Lindsay and Witney are doing for their partners? Which of these pros is going to get well and truly screwed out of a place in the finale, eh? None of them should be. Mark is doing the best work of his career on DWTS – in any other environment he would be a lock for an Emmy nomination. Every week he gives his partner something brilliant to do and she does it with a joy and light that permeates the entire dance. She’s a breath of fresh air. Frankie is an actual delight this season – not a trained dancer, not even the best dancer, but you watch him and you can’t help but root for him and hope he does well. Witney is doing right by him, giving him dances that make me happy and work for him. And Lindsay? This girl is overdue for a MBT. Yes, this season she has an amazing partner who may not connect with some – but he works for me and their dances have been first rate. Then there’s Emma who’s dancing with someone who is 6’4” tall – a tall order (haha) for anyone. Someone that tall is tough to get dancing properly and she’s doing a great job. Including Jonathan in their jive was a stroke of genius – that’s called playing the DWTS game. Knowing what it takes to stand out in the field, recognizing that the best dancer doesn’t always win, and working the show to the advantage of your partner.

These four pros and their partners deserve to be the last four standing…but why do I think it won’t work out that way? Because the producers have decided that we can’t have nice things. They get the shakes if they don’t have a C-boy in the finale. Why? Mark Ballas starred on Broadway, Emma won last season and the world didn’t end, Witney and Lindsay are pretty popular in their own right…what the ever-loving hell is wrong with letting the show evolve naturally???

Ah, screw it. Rant over. For now. What does the damn leader board look like?

We have Jordan, Frankie, Lindsey and Victoria as our top four per the judges scores. One of these dances is not like the others; Victoria’s dance I found to be boring. But I’m not a Disney person in any case. It was low energy, simple and not even close to in sync like the judges were desperate to claim. Totally over scored. Was it over scored because she isn’t getting the votes, or over scored just because the judges are creating an arc for her? Who the hell knows.

In any case, it seems pretty simple this week in that there is a good break between the top tier scores and the bottom tier scores. There’s a full two points between Nikki/Victoria and Drew/Terrell – not saying that’s how his should be, just how it IS.

As a result of this break and the vote totals needed, I think it’s safe to say that Jordan, Frankie, Lindsey, Nikki and Victoria are all safe this week.  Nikki is kinda getting hosed every week, but this week I think her score is high enough to keep her safe.  The vote totals are just working in her favor.

In trouble? The Chmerlacheys for sure, along with possibly Terrell (although I kinda doubt it).  Nick is at the bottom of the leader board and he has some work to do.

As you can see, Nick needs about 7,700 more votes per million votes cast to stay over his wife. Is it possible he does? Sure, but I tend to think it’s unlikely. Maks beats Peta in the fanbase department, although Nick beats Vanessa in the fanbase department. I just think that people who watch this show (the general audience) are more likely to go Vanessa – she seems a bit manic, but she’s a decent dancer. In another pro’s hands she might be in the running to go to the finale. I have to say…I feel very sorry for Vanessa. I liked her a lot at the beginning and then some kind of shit went down with Maks. And sorry, Maks fans, but he has a responsibility to make this show a great experience for his partner, regardless. All pros have struggled with this from time to time, but Maks takes the cake. He hasn’t realized, after all these years, that he’s not the star of the show. Why this is hard for him, I don’t know. Anyway, Vanessa seems like she was the one who was gung ho to do the show and now the experience has not been great, thanks to her partner. And honestly, that’s very sad. So many people talk about what a great experience DWTS is, yet you get the wrong partner and it seems like it might be a nightmare. I can’t help but feel for Vanessa.

Anyway, Nick also needs about 11,500 more votes per million votes cast to get past either Drew or Terrell. I really don’t see that happening; both Drew and Terrell seem like audience favorites to me, at least for now. Drew is Property Brothers – which I’m mildly obsessed with – and Terrell really seemed to have a huge breakthrough in Week 4. I don’t know how long that will carry him considering the rest of the cast, but I think it helps him this week.

To sum up, Nick needs ONE of the following to be safe this week:

  • Nick needs about 7,700 more votes per million votes cast than Vanessa, OR;
  • Nick needs about 11,500 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew or Terrell, OR;
  • Nick needs about 19,200 more votes per million votes cast than either Nikki or Victoria

And so on up from there. I can’t see him making any of those vote totals, but I could be wrong. If he beats anyone, it will likely be his wife, Vanessa. I will be surprised by any other outcome. What about Vanessa?

Hmmmm….Vanessa only needs about 3,900 more votes per million votes cast to get past either Terrell or Drew. That is not a lot. It’s a tiny margin, actually. I don’t think I see it happening. But if she were to get more votes than either Terrell or Drew, Nick would need to get the 11,500 more votes per million votes cast than one of them for one of them to go home. And I don’t see that happening.

Because of that it certainly seems like Nick is going to be the one going home. I don’t think he beats Vanessa and he certainly doesn’t beat Terrell or Drew. It’s plausible he could be Vanessa, and for the “DRAMA” of it all they will likely put Vanessa and Drew in jeopardy together. Even though I called that happening a week ago. 😉

I’m going to quit belaboring this and say that Nick is the one going home. If I’m drastically wrong (i.e. it’s someone other than Nick or Vanessa), I’ll do a post mortem on Tuesday or Wednesday.

What do you think?