DWTS Season 25, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Welp, this is one of those weeks where I’m really not sure what’s going to happen…but it will probably be an eye-opening week. We’re going to find out what Drew and Frankie (and Victoria) are made of, most likely. Why? Well, I feel like all of them are probably solid vote getters, but we really don’t know for sure that that’s true.

One of those three is most likely to go home, IMO, because there is a pretty big break between the upper tier and the bottom tier scorers this past week. Check it out.

Note the five points between Frankie/Victoria and Nikki/Vanessa. Interestingly, I think the strongest actual dancers are above the break and the weakest dancers are below the break – coincidence? The judges could be playing a dangerous game, though, because my gut says that Drew and Frankie are two of the stronger vote getters this season. I have NO read on Victoria at all; part of me says that she’s fading into the woodwork thanks to unimpactful dances, but the other half of me wonders if Val has enough juice for her to be safe. And a third part wonders if the on-going presence of Maks hurts Val, splitting the C-boy votes.  No idea…but I think we’re about to find out.

So Drew is low man on the totem pole but only by one point…which is a tiny margin. One that he might be able to beat.

As you can see he only needs about 3,300 more votes per million votes cast to beat either Frankie or Victoria, but 19,700 more votes per million votes cast to beat either Vanessa or Nikki. That’s a fairly sizable number these days on DWTS.  I would be inclined to say think that Vanesssa or Nikki were the most likely ones to be on the bubble, but with that margin?? I dunno, I don’t think so.

Of course, the conspiracy theorist in me wonders if they did this intentionally to set up a “shocking” elimination of either Vanessa or Nikki.  But I do think if it were Vanessa they would have had a double last week and sent out the husband and wife together.

I have to say that I have no idea what’s actually going to happen, and that’s fairly unusual. We’ve gotten pretty good at guessing who’s going to go home over the years this show has been on, but this season is a bit unusual…and this week is odd in that the most likely eliminees are pretty well protected. Well, that’s not that odd, they manage to do that nearly once a season – protecting their favorites. It’s interesting that Nikki is up there as I don’t see her as a producer favorite.

Anyway, let’s spell it all out. For Drew to be safe, he needs ONE of the following:

  • Drew needs to get 3,300 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Frankie or Victoria, OR;
  • Drew needs to get 19,700 more votes per million votes cast than either Vanessa OR Nikki, OR;
  • Drew needs to get 22,900 more votes per million votes cast than Terrell, OR;
  • Drew needs to get 29,500 more votes per million votes cast than Jordan, OR;
  • Drew needs to get 32,700 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey.

I feel like there’s no way that Drew touches Lindsey, Jordan or Terrell, so they are likely safe, with no problem.  I think it’s somewhat unlikely that his beating Vanessa or Nikki…but I can’t rule it out. As I said, I think those two were next on the chopping block, if not for their higher scores. But nearly 20k votes? Oy veh.

As for Frankie and Victoria? Well, I feel like he’s beating Victoria, but not necessarily Frankie. But I have no idea.

Let’s say that Drew beats someone, that would leave Frankie and Victoria on the bottom. What do they need in order to be safe?

Yeah, the story isn’t much better for them than it is for Drew. They need about 16,400 more votes per million votes cast to stay over either Vanessa or Nikki. :::sigh::: I just don’t know.

Let’s see if we can narrow it down.  If you had to pick between Vanessa and Nikki, who do you think is getting ONE vote more than the other?  I’m going to pick Vanessa getting the vote mainly because she has Maks and has been slightly more impactful recently, including getting a better running order position. So, I’m going to add Vanessa to the safe group.  If you had to pick ONE person between Frankie and Victoria, who do you think is getting the one vote more than the other? Even this is hard. I think Frankie as a celeb is more popular than Victoria, but Victoria has Val. Make no mistake – this is a test of Val as much as it is Victoria. If Victoria had Derek, there is no question she’d be safe. I don’t think Val has the same pull. I’m going to pick Frankie.

That would mean that Frankie, Vanessa, Terrell, Jordan and Lindsey are all safe, leaving Drew, Victoria and Nikki in Jeopardy, with one of them going home.

You can look at the numbers until the cows come home, but they’re not helping me this week. Nikki is a good bit ahead of Victoria and Drew, but would have to happen for her to be eliminated?  ALL of the following things would have to happen:

  • Drew would have to get 19,700 more votes per million votes cast than Nikki, AND;
  • Frankie AND Victoria would have to get 16,400 more votes per million votes cast than Nikki, AND;
  • Vanessa would have to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Nikki does NOT get the 3,300 more votes per million votes cast than Terrell, AND;
  • Nikki does NOT get 9,900 more votes per million votes cast than Jordan, AND;
  • Nikki does NOT get 13,100 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey.

So, are all of those things happening?? I’m having trouble with the 19k and 16k votes that the people below her on the leaderboard would have to get; much larger margins have been beaten on this show, but I just don’t think it works this time. So, I feel like Nikki might be safe.  It’s also possible that people aren’t voting for her so she falls below the folks below her…but I dunno.

I think it might come down to Drew and Victoria and I have no idea who will come out on top. There’s always the chance that Frankie and Nikki are in the mix as well.  But…

I’m going to say it’s either Victoria or Drew, with Nikki at the outside for elimination. I can think of arguments for any of them to be safe…it’s just too close to call better than that.

Whoever gets it right this week will have made the very definition of a lucky guess. What’s your guess?