DWTS Season 25, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, I’ve never seen a more disgusting, egregious display perhaps EVER on DWTS – and that’s really saying something. Of course I’m referring to the judging and scoring of the team dances this past week. Was Team Monster Mash perfect? Of course not. But what about Team Phantom? Were they perfect? HELL NO. What kind of moron actually believes there is a six point difference between the team with the better choreographers and better dancers (and the more difficult, innovative choreography) and the team with…issues. I like all the dancers left, but come ON. Utterly ridiculous. You know, if the judges thought Team Phantom were the better team, fine. Give them a point or two…or even three…higher. But SIX POINTS?? Fucking ridiculous and so very transparent. So how much trouble is Vickie in??

Well, I think it is probably mission accomplished. I’m tempted to go back through the seasons and do an accounting of how often at this point in the season some kind of ridiculous BS occurs in order to save some dancer that the producers need to stick around for a while longer. I bet we would be shocked at how often it happens. In fact, I probably WILL go through and do a post on it. But in the meantime, off the top of my head, the first one I remember is Chelsea Kane and her crazy high immunity points. There have been several since then, but that’s the first one I remember. It’s been several days and I’m still pissed.

Anyway, let’s do a bit of a look back before we look at the numbers for Monday night.  Nikki and Vanessa were both eliminated and they were not at the top of the leaderboard.  In order for Nikki and Vanessa – who were tied with each other – to be eliminated, ALL of the following things had to happen:

  • Drew got 19,700 more votes per million votes cast than BOTH of the, AND;
  • Frankie AND Victoria got 16,400 more votes per million votes cast than both of them, AND;
  • Neither Nikki nor Vanessa could cover the 3,300 votes point spread to pass Terrell, and so on up the leader board.

Now, I’m inclined to think that three people getting that many votes to be safe over two people in the middle of the leaderboard means that those two people were not getting many votes, more than those three people getting a tone of votes. Of course, both things could be true, but we won’t know until it’s all over.  For example, Audrina Patridge got voted out in a “shocking” elimination back in the day – one that both Courtney and I predicted beforehand.  For that to happen, MANY people (five) got more votes than her, including Kurt Warner who got something like 45k more votes per million votes cast; a huge number that hasn’t been beaten since.  BUT, Kurt was then evicted two weeks later, after Rick Fox, who also was below Audrina on the leaderboard. In that instance, it became fairly obvious that no one was voting for Audrina.  Make sense?

So, just because Drew, Frankie AND Victoria all stayed while Vanessa and Nikki were eliminated doesn’t mean that those three are bullet proof and getting a ton of votes.  On the contrary, it’s possible that any one of the three could be eliminated any time now. But will they? Well, check it out:

 

Terrell is on the bottom, but not by a lot. The problem for Terrell is that we’re down to 6 and my read on the season is that of everyone left, Terrell and Victoria are the two weakest fanbases. And Victoria has a nice cushion – thanks to the aforementioned crap ass team dance scoring. But I’m sure that’s completely legit. :::smirk::: Not.   Anyway, what does Terrell need to be safe?

As you can see, Terrell only needs about 4,600 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey and 11,700 more votes per million votes cast than Jordan in order to be safe. It can be kinda tricky, what the judges have done here. What I mean is that I think that Frankie and Drew are getting plenty of votes, while Lindsey and Jordan are getting great scores and a good number of votes. The question is, have Lindsey and Jordan been more sustained by scores than they have by votes, or are they getting a ton of votes as well?  I kinda feel like Lindsey has the jump on Jordan when it comes to votes…and I think she has the jump on Terrell as well. She doesn’t need to get more votes than Terrell, she just has to be not getting 4,600 per million LESS. And I don’t think she is – I think she’s every bit as charming as Frankie, with her pixie pig tails, and every bit as fun as Drew. Jordan I’m not as sure about any more – for whatever reason he doesn’t seem to connect as much as Lindsey does.  That said, I don’t think Terrell is covering the spread.

If there is anyone Terrell could beat, I would think it’s Victoria – but I also think she might be out of reach this week.  Terrell would have to get 18,700 more votes per million votes cast than her. That’s a pretty good number at this stage of the competition.

So, to sum it up, Terrell needs ONE of the following things to happen in order to be safe:

  • He needs to get about 4,600 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey, OR;
  • He needs about 11,700 more votes per million votes cast than Jordan, OR;
  • He needs about 18,700 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew or Victoria, OR;
  • He needs to get about 26k more votes per million votes cast than Frankie.

As much as Terrell is growing on me, I’m hoping he’s not beating anyone above him with the exception of Victoria. Nothing against her, but her partner could use a bit of humble pie, to say the least.

I could go on but I feel that Terrell is the one who will be eliminated this week. My record is crap this season, after being so good last season, so it’s very possible that my read is way off. Expect to see either Jordan or Lindsey (or both) in jeopardy along with Terrell.  If it’s a shocking elimination, I would expect that Terrell would be called safe right away. We best hope that doesn’t happen. If it does, we’ll need to do a post mortem, because these contestants seem kinda close to me and I don’t know who might go if not Terrell.

What do you think?