DWTS Season 25, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, I knew it was going to be an “interesting” week for the numbers but I had no idea until I actually ran them. 🙂

But first…we’re at that point in the season when most couples are putting out some good dances. Last Monday was no exception. In fact, there was only one disaster and that was shockingly Victoria and Val; that trio was just horrible. I have no idea what Val was thinking. If it wasn’t for the near constant displays of ego from him, I would guess that the producers talked him into making that Trio all about Laurie with Victoria as an afterthought. Unfortunately for Victoria, the video flashback of Val’s win seems right up Val’s alley. I can’t even imagine any other pro (not even Maks, I don’t think) doing such a thing. Made me a bit sad for Victoria.

Anyhow, once you look at the numbers, it’s very obviously either Drew or Victoria going home this coming week.  First, the totals for all couples.

Yeah, a fairly significant vote difference between the top three and the two low scorers. But it gets worse.

As you can see, Drew only needs about 3,200 votes per million votes cast in order to be safe over Victoria. I think he will manage to get that 3,200 votes. He’s getting hosed by the judges plus his dances just have more impact. I also think that his fanbase is far larger than either Victoria’s or Val’s. Always a tough call when someone has to cover a margin, though…even a tiny one.

And, as you can also see, there are no other avenues for Drew – if he wants to be safe he needs to beat Victoria because Frankie, Lindsey and Jordan are way out of reach for him (I believe), starting at a more than 19k vote margin to pass Frankie.

Let’s assume that Drew covers that spread to beat Victoria. What does Victoria need to do to be safe?

See, this is where the bad news really starts. And why it has to be either Drew or Victoria. Drew needs more than 19k more votes per million votes cast and Victoria needs nearly 16k more votes per million votes cast to get past Frankie – and I just don’t see either of them being able to do that. For this season, that is a LOT of votes against a guy like Frankie. I don’t see it happening.

In a nutshell, for Victoria to be safe, she needs ONE of the following things to happen:

  • She needs for Drew to NOT get the 3,200 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • She needs to get 16,000 more votes per million votes cast than Frankie, OR;
  • She needs to get 19,200 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey, OR;
  • She needs to get 38,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jordan.

Do you see any of that happening? The only possible way to safety that I see for Victoria is through Drew.

So, Frankie, Lindsey and Jordan are almost certainly safe and either Drew or Victoria will be eliminated.

Which one? Well, I could certainly be wrong because so many in the cast have been very similar in terms of skill and fanbase this season that it’s been a tough call all the way, but I think it’s Victoria’s time to go.  And this makes me sad, because she seems like such a great girl – but I think she’s plateaued and I think the audience will agree.

What do you think? Victoria or Drew??