DWTS Season 25, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, the dance order from last night is interesting. It’s often instructive, but we won’t actually know until it’s all over.  But I’m surprised to see Lindsey going last. Perhaps it’s so close between Lindsey and Jordan that it makes no difference?  In any case, my sense after last week was that it was between Jordan and Frankie. Now I think it’s between Jordan and Lindsey.

There are fine reasons for any of the final three to win, and I remain much as I was last week in that I would be fine with any of them winning. There is an argument to be made for each, particularly when talking only about the celebrities. They all have pluses and minuses – and I have to say that I’m enjoying a finale where I’m not overly invested in any of the remaining couples.  At the end of the night, Lindsey’s is likely the only freestyle I will carry with me beyond tonight – playing her violin while doing all that dancing? Awesome. And before you cynical lot start – Lindsey is always highly mobile when playing. Not quite THAT mobile…but yes, I believe she was playing.

Another thing that I mentioned in the Live Blog – this is yet another season where the freestyles, while awesome, were not overly special. This is mainly due to the over use of the troupe during the whole season. It reduces the “standout” quality of a lot of the finale dances. Perhaps I watch too much DWTS, but there is something to be said for just two dancers – the pro and their partner – over the course of the whole season. Then, when you get to the end and want to use the troupe, it doesn’t seem like just another week. I suspect that we’re never going to get that aspect of DWTS back.

So, at the end of the night, where does everyone stand on the leaderboard? Much where I expected them to stand – Jordan and Lindsey tied with Frankie a couple points back.

Only four points between Frankie and Lindsey/Jordan. That will likely be enough but you just never know.

For Frankie to get second place, he needs to get roughly 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than either Lindsey or Jordan.

In order to win, Jordan OR Lindsey need for Frankie to NOT get that 13,000 more votes per million votes cast and one of them needs to get ONE more vote per millon votes cast than the other.

I feel like Jordan is going to win. Why? Who knows why, but that’s what my gut is saying.  Let’s break it down.

Factors in Jordan’s favor:

  • His pro has never won.
  • His pro has been killing it for a couple seasons now and has come up short.
  • He’s a great dancer.

Factors against Jordan:

  • His fanbase coming in to this show likely doesn’t stack up to either Frankie or Lindsey, who has 10 million youtube followers. That doesn’t usually count for much if they’re not voting, but they’re more than what Jordan has.
  • It seems like a lot of the audience isn’t connecting with him like they are Frankie.
  • He’s always been a great dancer.

What about Lindsey? What’s working in her favor?

  • She has a huge online fanbase.
  • Mark has the largest pro fanbase of the pros left in the competition.
  • I think her freestyle was most memorable.
  • It’s been so long since Mark won that the show isn’t even close to the same any more. 8 YEARS.
  • Great dancer, sweet personality

Factors working against Lindsey:

  • In spite of how long it’s been, Mark HAS won twice.
  • She had an off week last week.
  • Serious lack of PR compared to the other couples, but possibly due to her and Mark’s schedules.
  • More of a growth arc than Jordan, but still a great dancer coming in.

And then there’s Frankie. He shouldn’t be left out of the pros and cons – it is by no means a foregone conclusion that he’s not going to win or even come in second. I honestly don’t know. So, what’s working for him?

Factors working in Frankie’s favor? Well before the season started I would say only one – nostalgia. That is a big thing, though, when the DWTS fanbase averages 62 and female. But now that we’re at the finale?

  • It seems quite obvious that he’s a fan favorite in a more passionate way than either Jordan or Lindsey.
  • He’s had a real, tangible growth arc.
  • He’s a good dancer. The other two are as well, but they started out talented – and quite a bit younger as well.
  • Serious underdog. Women love an underdog.

Working against Frankie??

  • While good, he’s not the dancer the other two are.
  • 13,000 votes is quite a lot in the finale.
  • Freestyle didn’t have quite the bang that the other two did.

Any of the three could win, and I get the feeling that it’s close – and that we might hear Tom say so this evening. I still feel like Jordan might pull it out. But honestly, it’s too close to call with any certainty.  I could fake certainty and get it right – but that would be luck, wouldn’t it? 🙂

And I’ll be happy no matter how it turns out.

So, what say you??  Jordan? Lindsey? Or Frankie?  Too close to call??