DWTS Season 25, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers!
Well, the dance order from last night is interesting. It’s often instructive, but we won’t actually know until it’s all over. But I’m surprised to see Lindsey going last. Perhaps it’s so close between Lindsey and Jordan that it makes no difference? In any case, my sense after last week was that it was between Jordan and Frankie. Now I think it’s between Jordan and Lindsey.
There are fine reasons for any of the final three to win, and I remain much as I was last week in that I would be fine with any of them winning. There is an argument to be made for each, particularly when talking only about the celebrities. They all have pluses and minuses – and I have to say that I’m enjoying a finale where I’m not overly invested in any of the remaining couples. At the end of the night, Lindsey’s is likely the only freestyle I will carry with me beyond tonight – playing her violin while doing all that dancing? Awesome. And before you cynical lot start – Lindsey is always highly mobile when playing. Not quite THAT mobile…but yes, I believe she was playing.
Another thing that I mentioned in the Live Blog – this is yet another season where the freestyles, while awesome, were not overly special. This is mainly due to the over use of the troupe during the whole season. It reduces the “standout” quality of a lot of the finale dances. Perhaps I watch too much DWTS, but there is something to be said for just two dancers – the pro and their partner – over the course of the whole season. Then, when you get to the end and want to use the troupe, it doesn’t seem like just another week. I suspect that we’re never going to get that aspect of DWTS back.
So, at the end of the night, where does everyone stand on the leaderboard? Much where I expected them to stand – Jordan and Lindsey tied with Frankie a couple points back.
Only four points between Frankie and Lindsey/Jordan. That will likely be enough but you just never know.
For Frankie to get second place, he needs to get roughly 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than either Lindsey or Jordan.
In order to win, Jordan OR Lindsey need for Frankie to NOT get that 13,000 more votes per million votes cast and one of them needs to get ONE more vote per millon votes cast than the other.
I feel like Jordan is going to win. Why? Who knows why, but that’s what my gut is saying. Let’s break it down.
Factors in Jordan’s favor:
- His pro has never won.
- His pro has been killing it for a couple seasons now and has come up short.
- He’s a great dancer.
Factors against Jordan:
- His fanbase coming in to this show likely doesn’t stack up to either Frankie or Lindsey, who has 10 million youtube followers. That doesn’t usually count for much if they’re not voting, but they’re more than what Jordan has.
- It seems like a lot of the audience isn’t connecting with him like they are Frankie.
- He’s always been a great dancer.
What about Lindsey? What’s working in her favor?
- She has a huge online fanbase.
- Mark has the largest pro fanbase of the pros left in the competition.
- I think her freestyle was most memorable.
- It’s been so long since Mark won that the show isn’t even close to the same any more. 8 YEARS.
- Great dancer, sweet personality
Factors working against Lindsey:
- In spite of how long it’s been, Mark HAS won twice.
- She had an off week last week.
- Serious lack of PR compared to the other couples, but possibly due to her and Mark’s schedules.
- More of a growth arc than Jordan, but still a great dancer coming in.
And then there’s Frankie. He shouldn’t be left out of the pros and cons – it is by no means a foregone conclusion that he’s not going to win or even come in second. I honestly don’t know. So, what’s working for him?
Factors working in Frankie’s favor? Well before the season started I would say only one – nostalgia. That is a big thing, though, when the DWTS fanbase averages 62 and female. But now that we’re at the finale?
- It seems quite obvious that he’s a fan favorite in a more passionate way than either Jordan or Lindsey.
- He’s had a real, tangible growth arc.
- He’s a good dancer. The other two are as well, but they started out talented – and quite a bit younger as well.
- Serious underdog. Women love an underdog.
Working against Frankie??
- While good, he’s not the dancer the other two are.
- 13,000 votes is quite a lot in the finale.
- Freestyle didn’t have quite the bang that the other two did.
Any of the three could win, and I get the feeling that it’s close – and that we might hear Tom say so this evening. I still feel like Jordan might pull it out. But honestly, it’s too close to call with any certainty. I could fake certainty and get it right – but that would be luck, wouldn’t it? 🙂
And I’ll be happy no matter how it turns out.
So, what say you?? Jordan? Lindsey? Or Frankie? Too close to call??
Heidi, from all the ugly back and forth I watched go down on social media last night reading this final DWTS was a breath of fresh air. Thank you for breaking it down like you did for the 3 finalists. I wish a certain Glamour recapper took a note from your book and handled it this way as well. My support has remained behind Lindsay since her season back with Alek but if she does fall short, this season will remain one of my favorites as we finally got to see the kind of content she could produce for a contender.
I agree that the heavy use of the troupe throughout the season really killed the impact of the freestyles. I think out of all the freestyles, Lindsey’s will stick with me the most. It’s quintessentially hers and I can’t see it being redone by anybody else down the road.
I think Disney-ABC has the most to gain with a Jordan win since he is young, moldable, and already producing so much content for various branches of their empire. They really need someone who isn’t Nick Lachey to replace Derek at televised holiday specials, and I think Jordan is made for that kind of stuff.
Although I was a little disappointed in his freestyle, I still hope Jordan wins. I’ve read on other boards that Mark would include the violin – obvious and other pro’s would have done the same -for sure Derek would have. But, it was good. I just didn’t “get her” this season, but I think she will win and another talented Disney person will fall short of the mirrored ball. I am thrilled that Frankie made the finals. Also, I like the troupe. Their presence makes it seem more of a big production number than one couple dancing. I hope Lindsey Arnold doesn’t feel like she blew it for Jordan.
I’m torn – I’ve been splitting votes all season between Lindsey and Jordan and always throwing some to Frankie. To me, Lindsey had the best freestyle and I would love to see she and Mark win.
But I also love Lindsay Arnold and would love to see her win her first Mirror Ball – she and Jordan have been entertaining all season. He works really hard to make it look easy.
Love Frankie too – I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls it out. Just speaking with people they all seem to be voting for Frankie.
I’m a fan of all 3 so will be happy with whoever wins but if I have to pick just one – I’m going with Jordan.
Oh lord, Jackie – what did the showmance queen have to say?? I’m almost afraid to ask.
And thanks. 🙂
Yeah, Jane, your comment is one of the reasons why I feel like it’s going to be a close one. I too have voted for more than just one couple all season. In fact, each of the top 4 has gotten votes from me at one time or another.
I agree with so much of this. Agree about the troupe, agree there’s a case for all three, and feel the same that while liking all of them, I haven’t been overly invested in any one couple. No matter who, the winner will be a nice person who worked really hard and created some highly entertaining dances.
No hard prediction here, just a gut feeling that Lindsey and Mark will pull out the win. The freestyle has time and again carried a tremendous amount of momentum into the voting on this show and their freestyle was one for the books.
Cracking up @ showmance queen Heidi! I feel, like I have seen others on twitter mention, that as a journalist she shows blatant favortism to her fave and “phones it in” when it comes to others. It’s clear that Lindsey S & Mark have her vote and support but I haven’t felt her give any due props that are well deserved to the other finalists. She truly thinks that Jordan was/is running away with the MBT and that it’s been a predictable finale since the cast was announced. Almost so that it put a bad taste in my mouth with her negative energy and assumptions that this is in the bag.
I disagree as I think we’ve seen the narrative shift a few times in recent weeks but as a journalist for a major magazine, you’d think they would handle it like you did above and also like Kristyn Burtt has always done in the past and present. But just cause you have the credentials doesn’t mean their guaranteed to be professional? LOL.
This is going to be a great night – I’m going to be happy no matter who wins. I’ve been pulling for Lindsey and Frankie a little bit more than Jordan all season but I wouldn’t mind Lindsay getting the mbt after all the hard work she’s put in either. Can’t wait to see those fusions!
Whatever momentum Frankie had, I think was ruined by that Freestyle and the logical scores it got. I don’t think this is what his fans wanted. And if you’re not getting a perfect score either, I suppose you’re screwed. We’ll see. I don’t want him to win at all. And if Witney is getting a second mirrorball, at least let Lindsay have one too. One that she very much deserves.
Mark brought it. Lindsay more than brought it. It should be between Jordan and Lindsey, and I think Jordan won it fair and square last night. Can’t imagine him losing this.
What I can totally imagine is Frankie coming in second place. Which would be terrible for Lindsey.
I think Witney did a fantastic job with the first dance. She looked insanely gorgeous.
Why was Corbin being interviewed about what it takes to win? We all know what it takes to win, sure, but in a clip featuring all winners, it looked weird.
While I still liked all freestyles, I think none of them will go down in DWTS history. Out of the bunch Lindsey’s was still the best for me.
Frankie has been my favorite all season, but it will probably be between Jordan and Lindsey as many people have said already. If being the big ringer of the season doesn’t work against Jordan, he might come out on top!
Off topic: Will Julianne also judge tonight? It was so great to have her back in the ballroom and her performance was incredible!
I’m excited to find out because for the first time in ages I genuinely can’t call it between Jordan and Lindsey. I’d be happy with either so I’ll let the chips fall as they do.
I think Lindsey knocked it out of the park in the freestyle round, which the other two didn’t do last night, but I still think Jordan’s dance skill, together with the campaign to get Lindsay her 1st trophy, will push him over the finish line in first.
Agree with you, PH, on Lindsey’s Freestyle; and that any of the three could win. Also agree on the overuse of the troupe. I’ve actually been kind of miffed that Len hasn’t seen fit to commend Mark on his spartan use of the troupe this season. He was the last pro standing, into Week 6, who hadn’t used the troupe; until he had just two troupe members in Lindsey’s AT that week. And then none again until the Freestyle last night.
After reading the comments, I can now put into words how I have been feeling about the finalists. Jordan is great, but I like Lindsay more. Lindsey is great, but I like Mark more. I just like Frankie the most of the 3. So although he may not be the best dancer, he’s the one I have voted for.
I am going for a Jordan/Lindsay win for the same reasons. But there really hasn’t been any growth from him at all. He has been great since day 1 and obviously has had many dance lessons. No one starts out so great on week 1 of DWTS with only having 3 weeks to prepare before the show starts with the pro dancer, in this case Lindsay, without having some kind of dance background. I like Lindsay. I think she is a sweetie, so I would not mind that much if Jordan/Lindsay wins. As for the freestyle last night, Lindsey/Mark was superb. Best freestyle of the night. Blew my mind that Lindsey was playing the violin while Mark was flipping her around. If Jordan/Lindsay wins tonight, I guess what will come out of that, is that the freestyle was not the make or break like it has been for previous seasons.
Heidi, you are on fire. I love how you worked this post with what’s working for and against each of them. I also couldn’t agree more how Mark and Lindsey’s freestyle is the most memorable. When the night ended last night, I felt like they dominated….so, I’m going with them for the win. I agree too how their fan bases are the largest. But again, I will be happy for either Jordan or Lindsey as they are both so good and I love their pros too. Adding: But, Frankie and Witney were so good too. I enjoyed them so much. Really, I’d be happy for any of them if they won. Here’s to tonight.
I agree the Freestyle has become very generic, but in a season as tight as this, I think it might be the determining factor barring major manip tonight.
This is a tough one. Jordan came into the finale with the most momentum and maintained, so my preliminary gut says it could be him. Yet he didn’t have the most memorable Freestyle (despite great execution of great choreo) and some of his pre-week 8 scoring suggests he might’ve needed help sticking around (there is a reason young men don’t win this competition).
Conversely, some of Lindsey’s past scoring suggest she’s done well with votes. She’s been compromised a bit since her injury but was top level before and did produce the most distinct Freestyle.
If Frankie had a more impactful Freestyle, I think he’d stand a chance. I do think there is something to him repeatedly being “in jeopardy” about half a dozen times in a row. Either he’s needed help with votes or there setting up a surprise win for him. I’d say the latter, but again, that Freestyle might’ve been a dealbreaker.
So my final say is Lindsey but I’m good with either of the guys.
*they’re
Autocorrect is the enemy.
Hard to believe we are at the end of the season. This is the first season I have enjoyed since Derek departed. I have no idea who will win tonite but my stomach tightens up because I think both Jordan and Lindsey have earned it. I will miss both of them. I also want to wish everone a Happy Holudays and especially the mods who always come through for us. This is just. My go to for everything DWTS. Thanks for all you do.