Dancing with the Stars Season 26, The Finale – LIVE BLOG (SPOILERS)

Plus a few numbers thrown in, since I totally spaced on Dancing by the Number, thanks to my travel schedule. 🙂

Well, advantage Adam, since he has the second “no rules” dance this season while everyone else is doing ballroom. That’s only one reason why I think he’s going to win this season. Another reason is his partnership with Jenna – they’ve really clicked.

He also has an advantage if the numbers spread is similar to what it was at the end of last week. The difference between this week and last week, however, is that there will be two full dances worth 30 points each. That tightens the spread a bit.

I predict that the first dance goes something like this (unless the judges totally cop out, which they could):

Tonya – 26
Josh – 28
Adam – 30

The freestyle? I think Josh and Adam get perfect scores and Tonya gets a 28 or 29. IF that occurs, then Tonya would need 17.4k more votes and 29k more votes per million votes cast to win over Josh and Adam, respectively. I would be surprised if that were to happen. I always thought she had the juice to get to the finale week, but not win. Too much baggage.

For Josh to win, he would need for Tonya not to get that 17.4k more votes and he would need to get 11.6k more votes per million votes cast to win over Adam.

For Adam to win, he just needs for those two dancers to not cover the spread.

If it comes out a three way tie, I think it’s between Josh and Adam and I’m leaning Josh. For that matter, if it’s a two way tie between Adam and Josh – same thing. 🙂

Okay, show time.

What the heck is going on on that stage?? Adam and Jenna are the only ones remotely happy to be there, from all appearances.

Tonya first with V. Waltz.

I saw a little bobble at the beginning of the dance and a possible issue with an underarm pass, but damn she is definitely a ballroom girl. That said, she did fine with latin too, so. I think that color looks good on her.

Len and Bruno are loving it. CAI says she seemed nervous, which I think is a tiny bit of BS.

Nailed that score – she gets a 26 as predicted. Josh is going second – as DWTS often does, I think they are dancing in their reverse order of finish.

So Josh and Tonya get a slower ballroom dance (one favors it, the other – hard to say)…and Adam gets Jazz. Okay.

Josh and Sharna doing a beautiful job…until Sharna steps on her dress and totally lets it show on her face. Girl!!

Judges seem to love it, calling him elegant – although CAI and Len both call out a minor error. That makes it easy to give him all 9s. We’ll see after the commercials.

Josh gets a 27 – I was off by a point.

I have to admit, the Jenna and Adam screaming at each other on the first meeting was what got me. And her choreography has been STELLAR.

This dance is really cute and their sync work seems as stellar as usual. Not sure how CAI is going to feel about lip syncing. Nastia ought to beat her over the head if she doesn’t pick on it. 🙂

Is this dance the closest to actual jazz they’ve had on this show since Derek left?? I think so. Judges seem to love it. Sync not as perfect as in the past, but pretty damn close.

As anticipated, Adam gets a 30. I’m just that damn good. Only off by one point over three dances. 😉

Tonya’s freestyle package is a bit teary. Ohhh…good song….

Holy crap. That was a Derek Hough-style freestyle!! Good job Sasha!! So athletic and so HARD! Damn, color me impressed!! She trailed the music just a teeny tiny bit in a one or two spots cuz it was so damn fast, but she’s not a spring chicken any more!!

Judges are raving…Oh sit down, CAI. 🙂 I predicted a 28 or 29, but I suspect she gets a perfect score. And she does. Not sure this changes anything other than narrowing the margins a bit.

NUMBERS

Or a lot. Tonya needs less that 6k votes to overtake Josh and get second place. To win she would have to get that 6k AND get 23k more votes per million votes cast than Adam. I don’t see that happening, but it’s possible she could move into second place. This is assuming that Josh and Adam both get perfect scores on the freestyle.

For Josh to win, he would need for Tonya to NOT get that 6k votes and he would need 17.4k more votes per million votes cast to get past Adam and win. I don’t see that happening, but I could be wrong. I think right now it’s a battle for second place.

Okay, that was a good freestyle, and danced perfectly, but it seemed that the troupe and Sharna were the ones doing all the dancing. I really like Josh, but I think he gets let down a bit by Sharna’s lack of cross training. Certainly not bad, but it might suffer from going in between Tonya and Adam.

Judges love it – Bruno’s comment “You’re wet.” was probably the best one all night. He gets a perfect score, cuz that’s what we’re doing tonight.

Oh boy, Adam’s hair for his freestyle might be it. Anna Trebunskaya sighting in the audience!!

Holy crap part 2! That’s what cross training does for you – that’s the most unique freestyle we’ve seen in a very long time. That was very cool. I was mesmerized.

And the judges are going to crap all over it. I feel like this dance might have been too SYTYCD for them. The out of sync comment from CAI was bullshit – that’s all she could think of to say, she couldn’t say she didn’t get it. That could change things.

NUMBERS

The freestyle round might have cost Adam and Jenna, but maybe not. We’ll see. Josh now only needs about 6k more votes per million votes cast than Adam and he needs for Tonya to not get the 6k more votes per million votes to get past HIM. If neither Josh (6k votes per million) and Tonya (11.7k votes per million) can cover the spread, Adam wins. Not coincidentally, those numbers are what Tonya needs to win.

I still think Adam pulls it out, but the last minute voting combined with her traditional, high energy freestyle could pull it out for Tonya. Unfortunately, Adam and Jenna made the margins very tiny. I’m not longer certain who wins, although I’m still leaning Adam.

And we’re already at the end.

The WINNER IS….Adam and Jenna!!!!