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Dancing with the Stars Season 27, THE FINALE – LIVE BLOG!

Here we are at the finale already!!  If you want to see what it takes to win, and who we think will win, see Courtney’s Power Rankings and my Dancing by the Numbers posts from this past weekend.

Well, if history is any indication, it’s Evanna or Milo, eh?

VOTING IS OPEN NOW – ONLINE ONLY!!

Heh, Bruno doesn’t know where his camera is. 😀

This opening is kinda fun….taped yesterday or Saturday. Can’t remember.

Alexis up first with her Argentine Tango. Talking about something other than her showmance. Ooops. Spoke too soon. Sounded like the Bachelorette there for a moment.

I do love this music, but it’s still not great for an AT….and her feet are STILL wrong, in week 9. Other than her feet which annoy, she moves very well.

Len says congrats to all the finalists. Says Alan pulled off a terrific dance, nice lyrical feel. Says he’s concerned with the footwork (agreed). Bruno says she’s gained poise and elegance, loves the classical touches, the connection works. He felt it. Noted a little stumble on the landing, then says he didn’t see it. CAI says she’s opened up but her pointe wasn’t as strong (that’s what I was seeing).

Scores: 9, 9, 9 for a total of 27. For those keeping track, I was a point too high on my guess for her score.

Lin-Manuel Miranda in a commercial for Mary Poppins. :::swoon:::

Did you all know that Bobby has never danced before? 😀 Should probably warn the audience if you’re going to high five them. Looks dumb otherwise.

I’m sure bobby is doing a better job at this dance because the bar was so low….but it’s still so stiff in the actual dance parts. Even his hammer part is too wild.

Bruno…can’t tell if he likes it or now. I think not, because he then says he understands why he’s there at the finale. CAI says he defies the law of ballroom and latin dancing, but his hard work pays off. Blah Blah. Len says he put the ham in hammer, but he has to say that he doesn’t have the good feet, blah blah, but he makes so much fun out there than Len has so much fun.

And he gets a 24 out of 30. I think I nailed that one.

Female pros killing it – Witney, the master of the hair whip out in front.

Must we really see the retrospective?? Surely that time is used better elsewhere.

Oh god, a Bachelor dance. So Joe, Eric, Nick, Val and Wells (my favorite). Wells is dating the little girl from Modern Family, so don’t get to excited seeing her in the audience. 🙂

OMG…too much virginity talk. All the rest of it is typical Bachelor fun stuff. I should live blog my thoughts on that show if you think I can be harsh regarding this one. 🙂

Evanna up next!! If you didn’t see, check the PDH twitter feed to see a video of nearly every potter star wishing her luck only one I didn’t see was Daniel Radcliffe.

Her Halloween tango I think puts Alexis to shame. I miss the cat ears though. 🙂 She’s doing great. Not seeing any issues yet. Well done!! Yikes, a near perfect score the first time around??

CAI says congrats to Keo and says Evanna is the most improved dancer, and this dance was even better this time. Len says he gave her a challenge last time and she accomplished it. Bruno remembers the kitty ears too. Says she adds something every week.

And she gets a 30! I believe I was on target with that score as well.

The male pros without shirts! How new, exciting and different. :::yawn::: This show had more class when Derek and Mark were on it. Oh, Demarcus? Well, that helps.

Milo up next! My wine tastes…funny. Not bad. Just different. Anyway….what dance is he doing again?? Something with Robin Thicke? Okay Charleston. He’s still awesome, that hasn’t changed. Lift was a little awkward. I think live performance throws them off a bit, but that was still an excellent dance.

Len is annoyed – he has underpants older than Milo. 🙂 He didn’t like the charleston as much…last time. This time he had the Charleston swivel. Bruno says it was even more exciting and sharper than ever. Out of this world. CAI says he is ridiculously amazing, says he’s the one to beat. STFU, CAI. I don’t think she’s forecasting, just hoping. But it wouldn’t surprise me if she was trying to appear omniscient.

And they get a 30 as anticipated.

Yeah, let’s pimp the tour…with shit camera work. And that’s two total fuckups by camera men. Good thing we didn’t call it a drinking game…

All the male celebs are going on tour. Oh boy. Biggest surprise elimination in 27 seasons, Tom? Really? I don’t think so, but whatever. Ad why does he get to dance again? You realize there is only 50 minutes left and you’re going to screw the winner out of their moment yet again?

Tinashe looks and sounds great…but so bored of these male pros and their Magic Mike moves. Come on, get some real choreo here gang.

For those wondering about the numbers, they are extremely similar to what I forecast yesterday. The numbers for the freestyles that haven’t been danced yet are, of course, guesses.

Dancer Re-do Dance Freestyle Total % of total points awarded
Milo 30.00 30.00 60.00 26.20%
Evanna 30.00 30.00 60.00 26.20%
Bobby 24.00 28.00 52.00 22.71%
Alexis 27.00 30.00 57.00 24.89%
Total Points Awarded 229.00 1.00

If these numbers hold, here’s what Bobby and Alexis would need to do to win. And they’d have to beat both Milo AND Evanna.

Bobby vs. Alexis 2.18% 21,834
Bobby vs. Evanna/Milo 3.49% 34,934
Alexis vs. Evanna/Milo 1.31% 13,100

 

Alexis is up first with her freestyle, talking about how this was her mom’s favorite show.

I don’t know that Alexis is good enough a dancer for this kind of freestyle.  She looks stunning though. The staging is getting in her way as well.  There isn’t much to this so far.  I think she’s kinda hosed by having a live performer.  Yeah, that was an awkward ending and the dance was much too simple for her and what I think she’s capable of. Not that great, IMO.

Len seems to love it. I suspect that everyone gets a 30 except for Bobby. Bruno says it was a big risk and that the level of difficulty (emotionally) was high and she was on top of it.  CAI says it started out with a struggle, but once she hit the floor she earned it back and it was her best dancing to date. I don’t agree with that, but it is the freestyle.

Oh god, more showmancing. Whatever it takes, I guess.

And they get a 30 as expected.

Bobby’s freestyle is up next.  The one advantage he has is with people who wait to see the freestyles before they vote. This is where Evanna and Milo are hampered. If you’re going to vote, VOTE NOW.

There’s no talking during freestyles!! But it’s who he is…he needs to flap his gums.  Took a long time to get to the dancing. And he’s off time. So many dancers I lost him several times. I thought that dance was short…and he’s talking again.  Okay, the best part was Tom ACTUALLY flossing. LOL. That was clever.  And they throw in some more shit camera work.

Bruno seemed to love it, says Sharna did a fantastic job. CAI is confused (she stole my wine!!) – she seems to love it too although she comments on his counting out loud.  Len says he’s not always been the judges champion – he’s Len’s champion tonight though.

Score: 30??  I hope like hell the judges know what they’re doing. :::runs off to do the numbers:::

NUMBERS UPDATE:  If all four couples get a 30 on their freestyle, here is how the numbers end up.

Bobby vs. Alexis 1.30% 12,987
Bobby vs. Evanna/Milo 2.60% 25,974
Alexis vs. Evanna/Milo 1.30% 12,987

I think Bobby beats Alexis, but can’t beat either Evanna or Milo.  After that, it comes down to who gets the most votes – Evanna or Milo. It all might actually hinge on the freestyle – but I might give the edge to Milo since he’s not going last.  Evanna based on actual dancing.

Milo and Witney up next with their freestyle.  The umbrellas are dangerous, but if they pull it off it could be amazing.

Oh Milo! Looking all grown up there. Starts off very well.  Lots of actual dancing.  It’s going to piss me off that Alexis and Bobby each got 30’s when you stack their dances up with this one.  Yep. Pretty cool. Vastly superior to the two that went before it.

That look on CAI’s face should be her thinking why did I give Alexis and Bobby 30s??  Usual freestyle hyperbole comparing to other seasons BS. Len is raving also.  Bruno…also raving.  I’m tired of typing, can you tell? 🙂

Score: 30, as expected.

Hurry up and get Evanna out here!! Jesus, cutting it kinds close once again.

Is Keo going to throw up? Dancing to Evanna’s favorite dance in the world. Keo says he’s going to go big. I hope he doesn’t go too big – sometimes less is more.  Keo talking about how he made family/friend with Keo. Evanna getting weepy.  She says this was one of her happiest times.

Clever staging and I love this song too.  Wow. Nice lift. Love the fast/slow components.  Damn, I loved that. It just made me happy. It was such a happy, joyful dance. Fantastic!

Len is talking about the evening and the dance.  Calls this dance the cherry on the cake, he loves the mix of styles. Len congratulates Keo. Bruno raves. CAI says she did a great job, she made it her own. Says there is something very special about her – agreed.

Scores: 30 – well deserved. Still pissed that Bobby and Alexis also got 30s – it lessens the scores for Evanna and Milo.

VOTE VOTE VOTE!!

Looks like we’re getting some results right now.  Oh first we have to have some kind of emotional song while we look at shots of the contestants. Why do we keep doing this same thing every season?? Find another way, kids.  Have a killer pro number (with shirts on the men for a switch) while we wait for the producers to count all the votes.

Okay, here we go….

Going straight to the winner….

The Winner is….Bobby and Sharna.

This show is dead.  You heard it here first. The day DWTS died.

November 19, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers and What it Takes to Win

As you know, it’s pretty hard (if not impossible) to do a real “Dancing by the Numbers” when the show is set up like it is this season. That is, the winner will be determined this Monday by *last week’s* votes, this weeks live vote and this weeks dance scores. It’s kind of crap – but at least they added a live vote to last weeks votes so if you voted for JP you have a shot to vote for someone else. Here are some important points from the press release before someone says, “but Heidi, the winner is determined only by the live vote” – not so, kids. Don’t listen to (other) people on the internet. 😉 Note the emphasis (added by me) in the second paragraph.

For the Repeat Dance, each couple will perform a tango, cha cha or Charleston. The Repeat Dance scores will be combined with the Freestyle Dance scores for a judges’ final tally. The judges’ tally will be combined with viewers’ votes from the previous week. Additionally, viewers can participate in an online-only live vote for the remaining couples, where, at the end of the night, one of them will be crowned the “Dancing with the Stars” champion.

Viewers will be allowed to participate in an online-only live vote at http://DWTSLiveVote.com. Voting will open at the beginning of the live broadcast and close approximately five minutes after the last dance. The live vote will only be available during the live broadcast in the Eastern and Central time zones. However, any individuals with access to http://DWTSLiveVote.com will be permitted to vote while the vote is open, regardless of their time zone (provided they are voting from within the U.S. and Puerto Rico).

First, let’s take a quick look at what it took for JP and Joe to be eliminated last week. As per usual, I see people getting hysterical, thinking this means Bobby is going to win. Or Alexis. Here was the leaderboard:

Dancer Score Team Dance Total % of total points awarded
Milo 27.00 27.00 54.00 16.82%
Evanna 30.00 28.00 58.00 18.07%
Bobby 21.00 24.00 45.00 14.02%
Juan Pablo 30.00 30.00 60.00 18.69%
Alexis 28.00 30.00 58.00 18.07%
Joe 22.00 24.00 46.00 14.33%
Total Points Awarded 321.00 1.00

What did Bobby have to do to be safe over Joe and JP?? Well, not a lot when it comes to Joe. A huge number when it comes to JP.

% Different Votes Needed Per Million
Bobby vs. Joe 0.31% 3,115
Bobby vs. Milo 2.80% 28,037
Bobby vs. Alexis/Evanna 4.05% 40,498
Bobby vs. JP 4.67% 46,729

But remember, this doesn’t mean everyone and their brother is voting for Bobby – it could easily mean that no one was voting for JP. Courtney and I have been saying since day one that he has had little to no impact. Good dancer? Of course. But very Juan Note (tm Courtney). 🙂 For Bobby to be safe in a double, he had to beat two people. He obviously beat Joe (3,116 votes per million) and JP (46,730 votes per million).  In order for JP to go home, though, it wasn’t just Bobby that beat him, it was EVERYONE.

Milo vs. JP 1.87% 18,692
Alexis/Evanna vs. JP 0.62% 6,231

That number on the far right is the number of votes per million votes cast that Milo or Alexis AND Evanna got to stay over JP.  So, everyone got more votes than he did. Hell, maybe even Joe did – but we’ll never know, because Joe was also in the bottom two.

Anyway, moving on –

So, to determine what it will take to WIN this season, I’m going to make a wild guess at the scores each couple will receive – in many cases I’m going to assume that they score similarly to how they scored last week. This is what I typically do during the live show and it has worked out reasonably well. I’ll let you know where I make any changes.

Now, without JP and Joe in the mix, the over all vote total decreases. I’m going assume that everyone except Bobby gets a 30 in their freestyle. I’m also going to assume that Bobby does a bit better in his re-do dance, scoring a 24. Alexis stays the same. I’m also going to assume that last week was a fluke for Milo and that he, along with Evanna, gets perfect scores. I’m thinking that, barring disaster, the judges are going to like either Milo or Evanna for the win and will score accordingly, putting Alexis just slightly behind them. Here’s what the leader board would look like in this scenario.

Dancer Re-do Dance Freestyle Total % of total points awarded
Milo 30.00 30.00 60.00 26.09%
Evanna 30.00 30.00 60.00 26.09%
Bobby 24.00 28.00 52.00 22.61%
Alexis 28.00 30.00 58.00 25.22%
Total Points Awarded 230

It’s always frighteningly close in the finale, but most of the time, the right person – or the right top two – emerges in the end.  What we will find out is if the lower number of voters – and the correspondingly lower number of voters – will throw a wrench into what is typically somewhat predictable end result for the show.  I think it unlikely, but you never know. Do the shippers or Bobby’s fans have strong enough fanbases to over rule the will of the average viewer?  I tend to think they’ll be offset by JP, Evanna, and  Milo fans pissed off that Bobby is still there.   If I’m even close to right, what will it take for Bobby to win the whole thing?

Bobby vs. Alexis 2.61% 26,087
Bobby vs. Evanna/Milo 3.48% 34,783

So, for Bobby to win, he would need to get roughly 26,100 more votes per million votes cast than Alexis and 34,800 more votes per million votes cast than BOTH Evanna and Milo.  Those are some decent numbers. He may be able to pass Alexis – and I wager he probably will, since in any normal season she would have been eliminated a couple weeks ago (showmance week, possibly).  But I don’t see him getting past either the Potter kid or the Disney kid – both have fanbases of their own and are very good to great dancers.  People who tend to tune in only for the finale will likely vote for the best dancer, if they vote at all.   I do think with the addition of a live vote, the judges will play it safe and NOT hand out any pity scores – that is, they won’t know for sure how he’s doing so he’s unlikely to get two perfect scores. I’ll be surprised if they give him one perfect score.

What will it take for Alexis to win? Well, if I’m close on the scores it only takes getting about 9k more votes per million votes cast than BOTH  Evanna and Milo AND she needs for Bobby to not cover the spread.  Meaning she needs for him to NOT get the 26k more votes per million votes cast than her.   She could maybe get past one of Evanna or Milo, but I don’t see her beating both of them.

What will it take for Evanna or Milo to win? Well first off, they need for Bobby to not cover the spread of  about 34,800 more votes per million votes cast. Second, they need for Alexis to not cover her spread of about 9k more votes per million votes cast.  If neither spread gets covered – meaning that Bobby and Alexis get 3rd and 4th places, then whichever of Evanna or Milo gets more votes, wins.  It can be as little as by ONE vote.   Yes. ONE VOTE.  So, if you have a favorite between those two, you best vote your fingers to the bone during the show. Every vote is going to count.  As they always do. 🙂

What do I think WILL happen on Monday night?? Well, I think Milo is going to take it home.  I think they will finish like this:

4th – Alexis
3rd – Bobby
2nd – Evanna
Winner – Milo

Now ask me what I WANT to happen on Monday night. 🙂 Here’s what I want to happen – and honestly, it’s a pretty tough call. Even money says to me that either Evanna or Milo wins, but since I so rarely get what I want when it comes to this show, I hedge my bets. Here’s what I WANT to happen:

4th – Alexis
3rd – Bobby
2nd – Milo
Winner – Evanna

I think it’s really too close to call between Evanna and Milo and everything hinges on not only the dancing and the scoring on Monday night – but I suspect a lot will depend on the spin and how each couple is portrayed. I’ve never wanted a pro to talk about how they’ve never won before – time for Keo to speak up, man. 🙂 If Bobby shows his true colors – the colors I’ve been hearing about on his radio show – then that helps Alexis. I don’t think Milo can do anything wrong, per se, it’s more about how his competitors look on their own. Keo’s real emotion the other week when Erin was talking about how she teases him and comments on how he’s never made it this far – that felt like a show-winning moment to me. But was it?? It was much more genuine and heartfelt than anything coming from Alexis and Alan (or Bobby and Sharna) – but was it enough?? I sure as hell hope so. That was a moment where I sat up and said, “Damn, they could win this thing.”

What do you think??

November 17, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

PureDWTS Season 27, Week 8 – Power Rankings, Who Will Win?

Y’all, it’s been a week…hell, it’s been a season.  And if I’m being honest, this is one season that has felt like it has absolutely DRAGGGGGGED on – I’m not sure I’ve wanted a season to be over this badly since maybe season 11, when Bristol was sticking around like a bad rash. Strike that – season 14 was pretty bad, too, when William Levy was getting jammed down my throat every week. Season 20 wasn’t much better, given that it had been predetermined it was “Val’s season” from week 1 and it got monotonous pretty quickly. To put it plainly: I’m just plain ready for this season to be over, and have my life back for the next 5ish months. I’ve got plans in the pipeline 😉

So in the penultimate elim of the season (which was a double, thank goodness – a 5-person finale on a season where the finale is only 1 night is a bit much), we finally shook Grocery Joe loose (yassssssss) and also lost Juan-Note Pablo in the second “shocking” elim of the season.  Can’t say I was terribly upset about either one leaving us – Joe should have been gone in week 1, and was little more than a glorified weightlifting spotter in his dances on Monday night; Juan Pablo, while probably deserving of a spot in the finale, just never resonated with me as a person – and I apparently wasn’t alone, as he clearly wasn’t getting the votes to stay. I think it says something when we ALMOST get a rare show of vulnerability from Juan Pablo (talking about his mother beating cancer in his rehearsal package, and dedicating his dance to her), and then it was like “JK, I’mma still serve you macho Latin lover realness!” and he performed a dance that, while technically quite good, was little different than every other dance we got from him this season: all smolder and sexiness, and no vulnerability or emotion.  I will credit him for being (to my knowledge) the first and only real-live Argentinean to perform an Argentine tango on DWTS, but at the end of the day, I think he & Cheryl probably missed the mark a bit in the grand scheme of things – you have to be a good dancer to succeed on this show, but people also have to like you and care about you; and if you’re constantly serving the same bravado week after week, dance after dance, and not taking the time to show the viewers that you’re also human and have feelings, they’re probably going to tune you out after awhile, no matter how great your dancing is.

I’ve been getting quite a few questions about what I think the future of this show looks like, given the three-ring circus that this season has been. Unfortunately, I think it looks grim – can’t remember where I had this conversation, but Heidi, John, & I were talking recently about the future of the show, and either Heidi or John said “At this point, they’ve gotten what they wanted out of the show – they probably don’t really care what happens now, and will let the show continue its steady demise until they find something better to take its place.” Let’s face it: getting 25+ seasons out of a show where it stays a ratings juggernaut is not just good – it’s great.  Almost unheard of…so for DWTS to be taking a dive in season 27, it’s more than likely just the show running its course. Sure, there’s been some wonky stuff going on this season, but I’d chalk a lot of that up to overall viewership being down and less of a normalizing influence in the voting as a result; I don’t think it’s so much that the SHOW has changed, it’s the AUDIENCE moving on.  I have often found myself saying “I just want to see something I haven’t seen before!” for several seasons now – be it a new pro, some more “out there” choreographic risks, an unexpected celeb, etc. I can’t imagine I’m alone in that desire.  Given that the show has basically already called several audibles this season (rearranging the elimination schedule, changing the original plan for a 5-couple finale, and cutting the finale down to 1 night), I don’t think ABC would have any qualms cancelling a prospective spring season if it came down to it – really, the only evidence we have of a spring season in 2019 is an interview (which I haven’t seen myself) where Sharna apparently said she had “signed on for several more seasons, including the spring one”; given that the pros contracts are pretty open-ended, and being “on contract” just means you must avail yourself if they need you, I don’t think we can safely assume there’s going to be a spring season, just that Sharna is available for it if there is one. And someone also pointed out to me that the winter tour has now been extended through early March – if there was going to be a regular-length spring season, the cast would have already been announced at that point, and the couples rehearsing. At this point, I’m dubious that there’s going to be a spring season at all, but if there is, I think the best we can hope for is a shortened one, a la season 26. I’d personally be just fine with no spring season, as I’m going to be tripled up on my classes by that point and also job hunting out west. DWTS can come back in the fall, when I’m done with school, hopefully settled into my new digs in Denver, and with a lot more free time on my hands 😉 Read more..

November 16, 2018 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, baker, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Follow me (and my dog!) on Twitter & Instagram: @putuincespence & @BirkinTheBulldog

DWTS Season 27, The Finale: Who’s Dancing What, And When?

Well, this is the weirdest final four we’ve had in a while, ain’t it? Only two dances each and then someone wins. Oh, but you get to vote online during the show.

Couples to Perform Two Dances – Repeat Performance and Freestyle

The Thanksgiving Spectacular Will Commence With an Epic Parade Opening Number and The Finale Celebrations Continue With Special Performances by Dan + Shay, Lauren Daigle,
Avril Lavigne, John Schneider, Robin Thicke and Tinashe

Viewers Can Participate in an Online-Only Vote for the Remaining Couples During Monday’s Live Telecast, in Which the Season 27 Champion Will Be Revealed Live

Bobby & Sharna
Repeat: cha cha (Song: “U Can’t Touch This” by MC Hammer)
Freestyle Song: Remix of “The Greatest Show” by Panic at the Disco
1-800-868-3402

Alexis & Alan
Repeat: Tango (Song: “Swan Lake” by Ray Chew Live)
Freestyle Song: “Head Above Water” – live performance by Avril Lavigne
1-800-868-3401

Evanna & Keo
Repeat: Tango (Song: “Disturbia” by Rihanna)
Freestyle Song: “It’s Oh So Quiet” by Björk
1-800-868-3405

Milo & Witney
Repeat: Charleston (Song: “Living in New York City” – live performance by Robin Thicke)
Freestyle Song: “Ain’t No Sunshine” (Lido Remix) by Bill Withers
1-800-868-3410

November 15, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 27, Week EIGHT – LIVE BLOG!

For my thoughts on who might go home and how, see the DBTN Retrospective….and for Courtney’s thoughts you can see the power rankings for this week.

Wow. Alexis looks smokin’. Hell, all the women do, although not crazy about Cheryl’s outfit – that fringe is…weird.

Bobby up first with his tribute dance. :::rolls eyes:::  To his fans. Not rolling his eyes at his fans, but at this theme. Using dances from week 1, how can it really be a tribute??

Way too many people. Whose idea was this?  Oddly, Bobby does better rolling his pelvis than he does walking on time. That wasn’t horrid, but it still had some weird spots. Read more..

November 12, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers Retrospective

This is for those viewers who claim either the judges don’t matter or the votes don’t matter – both are weighted EQUALLY in who stays or who goes home. If you continue to imply one or the other rules, ya need to shut it. You don’t know what you’re talking about. 🙂

Now, long time readers/viewers probably don’t need too much of a retrospective – they know how this show works by now. But for those of you interesting in just what Joe and Bobby needed, vote-wise, in order to stick around – and for those of you claiming they’re getting “tons of votes”, here are some actual numbers.   Reminder: Week 6 votes were combined with Week 7 scores to determine who would go home. Yes, I still hate that they do it this way because then the judges can use their scores to try to get rid of someone – if they know the vote totals. And can actually do math. I’m back and forth on the former and highly skeptical on the latter. 😉

How did the night end up per the leader board?

I would be SO happy if the top two scorers last week were the last two standing – and I think they stand a real chance of that being the case. But I digress.  Joe was pretty far down on the bottom, compared even to Bobby and John. But this is the thing people always forget about two-dance nights – the higher the number of points, the smaller the spread that has to be beaten.  So, what did Joe need, vote-wise, in order to be safe?

These are NOT big numbers – not at all. You might say, “but John is right in the demo” (so is Joe, unfortunately) and “DeMarcus is a popular football player”. Well, when you are constantly denigrated by the judges (John and DeMarcus) combined with the likely lower number of votes (giving fanbases more power relative to the average viewer), these things matter less. Whether you like it or not, people have sheep-like tendencies and tend to believe stuff that is repeated over and over and over.  I also tend to agree with Courtney that DeMarcus’ dancing suffered once he got hurt.  Football players grow up needing to avoid injuries. The mental impact was probably not small.

The reasons for Bobby still being around is even more striking.

Bobby only needed ONE more vote per million than DeMarcus and 2.3k votes per million to stay over John.  This is margin of error territory here folks. And for those of you who think that the showmance is real and don’t understand why many of us roll our eyes and grit our teeth…it obviously works.  See below.

By any conventional wisdom since this show began, Alexis has been in danger of being eliminated since day one. She stayed over Tinashe likely due to demographics…she continues to stick likely due to showmancing.  Not so sure she’ll be so lucky on Monday night.  John only needed 2.3k votes per million votes cast to stay over her. A few seasons ago, he would have stayed easily.  But, again, the combination of showmancing and the lower number of likely voters means she’s still hanging on. DeMarcus only needed 4.6k more votes per million votes cast to stay over her and he couldn’t manage it. Showmancing works, ya’ll.

So, now that John and DeMarcus are gone, your low hanging fruit may finally be in danger.  Joe and Bobby, and to a lesser extent Alexis. She’s only low hanging fruit due to her lack of fanbase – she’s not a bad dancer. And, honestly, Bobby has shown some improvement. I just wish he would quit the whining.

If the scores remain relatively the same, it could be a very interesting night. Joe would be a good bit below Bobby and Alexis in terms of score, but not out of reach in terms of making up the vote. So who’s fanbase is stronger, Joe’s or Bobby’s?? Alexis is ahead of both of them but she’s in easy striking distance of Bobby (only about 6,100 votes). She’s a bit farther out of reach for Joe (about 25k votes per million). So, a couple things will be tested tomorrow night – Bobby’s real popularity relative to the Bachelor franchise and the strength of the showmance.

IMO, either Joe will finally fail or Alexis will be the next one sent home. Why is Bobby safe? Well, if Joe beats Bobby, he probably beats Alexis too AND it’s likely that Bobby beats Alexis because the numbers are so small (6,100 votes). What if they do another double? Well, that’s when we find out who is more popular – Joe or Bobby? Beats the hell out of me. I think Joe is probably more recognizable to the DWTS audience and for some crazy reason they like him. So I give him the edge over Bobby.

Finally, much has been made of Evanna being in jeopardy more than once. Of course it’s possible that anyone can be eliminated in this new world of lower viewers (which likely equals lower vote totals). But just like the audience is on to the producers games and how they operate, the producers are on to the FANS and sites like this one. Once upon a time, Jennifer Grey was the only winner in the history of the show to have been in jeopardy. But that was YEARS ago. The producers have learned how to change it up, just like the fans have learned how the producers do things. That makes everything uncertain.

But just like lower vote totals make it easier for fanbases to save their favorites, it also makes the judges slightly more relevant. I tend to think our final three are going to be Milo, Evanna and JP. And if those three aren’t the final three, well, this show becomes – finally – only a popularity contest and not a dance competition. Yes…it has always been heavily reliant on popularity or lack thereof. But it will reach new highs (lows?) of popularity only if Evanna, Milo or JP are eliminated tomorrow night.

November 11, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

PureDWTS Season 27, Week 7 – Power Rankings

Welcome to season 27, where the decent dancers are in perpetual danger, and the more mediocre you are, the greater the likelihood you’ll stick around. Guys – this is not the dance show I fell in love with 13 years ago. This season is a strange, bastardized caricature of it – and that’s why this post has been hard to write.  It’s also been hard to try and make sense of the nonsense of this season in general, and I feel worthless when some of you come to me asking what to make of [insert nonsense here] or [insert wonky scoring here], and I’m not able to give you an intelligent explanation for it…because I don’t have one. It still tickles me that so many of you give a damn about what I write,  after all these years, and value my thoughts on this show. But this time around, I just don’t know what to tell you, other than “Yep, this season sucks.” I fear we’re possibly witnessing the death throes of DWTS – all good things must come to an end, I guess, and this show has paid the dividends for 13 years now, which is impressive and quite a bit longer than I thought it would be on the air. Just stinks that it’s going out in such an inauspicious way 🙁

It’s beyond me why reality competition shows even bother doing “country night” as a theme anymore – it only seems to appeal to a small subset of the audience, the music is often pretty cringe-y, and the attire is…questionable. Monday night’s show was no different – the opener was pretty sloppy, and even the guest singers seemed a bit bewildered and not quite sure what to do.  Additionally, I feel like the couples that got saddled dancing to songs performed live by the artists took a bit of a hit, as their choreography had to accommodate intermittent pans to the singer for their obligatory face time.  At the end of the night, I remembered very little, and cared even less about “country night”. Put it to bed, ABC.

As for who we lost this – John & DeMarcus were 2/3 of my favorite guys this season, and them getting taken out in one sweep was gutting. I would have GLADLY traded Joe, Bobby, Alexis, AND Juan Pablo if it meant keeping the two of them in the competition. I ended up enjoying John far more than I thought I would – he was actually a decent dancer, had great musicality, got along great with Emma, was excited to be there, had a nice journey, and was generally a likable, humble guy.  Unfortunately, I think the writing was on the wall where he was concerned – we saw it coming last week, and TPTB seemed to have decided his time was up. Then there’s DeMarcus – someone I thought for sure we’d see in the in the finale.  Not entirely sure what happened here – he was always one of the better male contestants, and was never a bad dancer in the same way that both Bobby & Joe are; he was also extremely likable and genuine, and vibed well with Lindsay.   Part of me thinks he just got lost in the shuffle between the general (but memorable) stink of Joe & Bobby, the three-ring circus of the Alanis/Alexan (have they decided on their ship name yet?) showmance, the gushing over Juan Pablo, and both Milo & Evanna having memorable journeys; part of the blame for that lies with the judges and their more middle-of-the-road scoring and critiques, which were usually unnecessarily tough on De. Then there’s also the small matter of his finger injury back in week 3 – as minor as it may have seemed in the grand scheme of things, it was as if the moment DeMarcus realized his finger was injured, sh*t got real.  I mentioned to someone on Twitter, but if you re-watch the video of it happening, there was a noticeable shift in his demeanor – he went from “Oh hell yeah!!!” to “Oh sh*t, this is bad!” in .3 seconds.  And part of me thinks he was never really able to shake it off totally – every dance from that moment on seemed a tad cautious and tentative. Who knows – regardless, I don’t think he or Lindsay deserved to go home, and on any other season, he probably would have had a free pass to the finale.  And the finale has suffered in quality with the lost off both John AND DeMarcus 🙁 Read more..

November 9, 2018 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, baker, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Follow me (and my dog!) on Twitter & Instagram: @putuincespence & @BirkinTheBulldog

DWTS Season 27, Week 8: Who’s Dancing What, And When?

And then there were…still too many.  Six people in the semi-final would normally mean a double elimination this week, but there was discussion they would go into the finale with five couples and whittle them down to three on night one, then those three would be up for the title on night two. Well, now there is no night two, so has the plan changed? Are we still going into the finale with five couples??

Anyway, per the press release:

The First Dance Is a Dedicated Dance to a Meaningful Person in the Celebrity’s Life

The Couples’ Second Dance Will Be Judges’ Choice to Help Determine Who Should Move on to Finale Night

The couples have been rehearsing day and night preparing to perform two stunning numbers. First, each celebrity will perform a dance style not yet danced, dedicated to a meaningful person in their life. The second is a special Judges’ Choice dance, where each couple will be challenged to perform a style of dance they previously danced, but this time with totally new music in this all-important Semi-Finals extravaganza. For the first dance, each couple will perform a waltz, salsa, contemporary or Argentine tango. For the Judges’ Choice dance, each will perform a jive, foxtrot, quick step, salsa or cha cha. The Dedicated Dance scores will be combined with the Judges’ Choice dance scores for a judges’ final tally.

Bobby & Sharna – Salsa (Song: “GDFR” by Flo Rida)
Judges Choice: Jive (Song: “Gimme Some Lovin’” by The Spencer Davis Group) (mentored by Len)
Dancing 1st
1-800-868-3402

Alexis & Alan – Waltz (Song: “Water” by Bishop Briggs)
Judges Choice: Jive (Song: “Yes” by Merry Clayton) (mentored by Bruno)
Dancing 2nd
1-800-868-3401

Joe & Jenna – Contemporary (Song: “This Year’s Love” by David Gray)
Judges Choice: Quickstep (Song: “Check it Out” by Oh the Larceny) (mentored by Carrie Ann)
Dancing 3rd
1-800-868-3406

Juan Pablo & Cheryl – Argentine tango (Song: “Libertango” from Forever Tango)
Judges Choice: Salsa (Song: “Tu Sonrisa” by Elvis Crespo) (mentored by Bruno)
Dancing 4th
1-800-868-3408

Evanna & Keo – Contemporary (Song: “Stand Up for Something” by Andra Day)
Judges Choice: Foxtrot (Song: “Rewrite the Stars” from “The Greatest Showman”) (mentored by Len)
Dancing 5th
1-800-868-3405

Milo & Witney – Argentine tango (Song: “Pray for Me” by The Weeknd, Kendrick Lamar)
Judges Choice: Cha Cha (Song: “Good Feeling” by Austin French) (mentored by Carrie Ann)
Dancing 6th
1-800-868-3410

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 27, Week SEVEN – LIVE BLOG!

Thanks to Monday night football, I’m watching on a stream tonight – one that could go out at any time. So…fingers crossed. 🙂

T-minus 15 minutes to Country night!!

Great. My stream has an out of sync audio…

Oh lord, I just saw where the showmance gets even worse tonight. There’s kissing involved. :::rolls eyes:::

Liking all the costumes so far, although I did look and Jenna’s and try to figure out what was going on there. 🙂

Is that five live performances?? Geez.

Tonight’s a double elimination – no surprise there. You knew one was coming, if you’ve been paying attention at all.

John up first! Dancing to “Thank God I’m a Country Boy”. He’s in TN…which is looking as lovely as usual. 🙂 He’s making me misty talking about his kids.

I think he’s doing a great job, he’s keeping up with the pros….or they’re doing a good job of marking him. Probably both. Emma keeps the choreo relatively simple, and he handles it very well. I like it! Read more..

November 5, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week 6 Post-Show Media

Just some stuff I ran across on the inter webs. 🙂

Read more..

October 30, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)