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DWTS Season 26, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, last week’s results certainly seem to indicate that a lack of PR is a killer. Arike was ahead of FOUR people in scores, not counting Kareem and she was eliminated. And that’s a shame because I certainly liked her more than Jennie. Ah well. That’s the way it goes.  Kareem couldn’t cover a small spread to stay over Jennie and Josh, and Arike just wasn’t getting any votes, judging by how many votes those below her needed to stay. Kinda surprising.

So, let’s take a look at where everyone stands on the leader board. Unfortunately, we can only use this as a guess because if they continue to use the show day scores to determine who goes home on that night, then these numbers are essentially meaningless.  It’s only a bit instructive. To top it off, the judges can easily base their scores on who they want to go home – if they know who has the votes. They can take away the public’s power. And that sucks. But it is what it is.

What I will say is that we kind of have to base everything on how people are doing in general and make the assumption that there won’t be any huge changes. And so far, the only changes in trend are that Josh was scored lower due to going first, and Arike jumped in the standings by a good bit. Mirai and  Adam stayed at the top, Tonya dropped a bit to tie with Chris and Jennie is with Josh in the bottom.  I’m sure it’s totally a coincidence that the are three two way ties remaining and the dancers are neatly ranked exactly as you would expect, even though everyone was “randomly” split into teams. I’m sure it wasn’t planned at all. :::rolls eyes:::

Once Arike and Kareem left, Josh and Jennie are the low folks on the leaderboard. It does make you wonder though, if they are really using same day scores – because I just can’t believe that Jennie pulled it off over Arike. Which makes me wonder when the teams were decided and if it was really a schoolyard pick. Doubtful. Totally a coincidence that the two people who didn’t tie with anyone are the ones who went home. I don’t even know what that means, because those judges scores are done, right? It will be this past weeks votes with the coming weeks judges scores to determine who dances in the finale.

So, as I noted above, Josh and Jennie needed roughly 13k more votes per million votes cast to stay over Arike and they apparently got those votes. Chris and Tonya needed 7.5k more votes per million votes cast –  it’s far less surprising that they got those votes than Jennie getting them.  But what’s going to happen this coming week? Who the hell knows.  If I was betting I would say that Mirai and Adam stay at the top of the leader board. I would also bet that the producers prefer Tonya over Josh (ratings! PR!!), hence she might rise on the leaderboard as well – it might also depend on who’s getting the votes. Judges like to be right, after all.

Let’s assume the standings remain relatively the same after the judges score on Monday, the possible exception being Josh rising on the leaderboard – I would bet Jennie or Chris go first, and get the lower score. But let’s use last weeks scores and you can switch Josh with Jennie or Chris to see how he might do if he rises on the board. What do Jennie/Josh need to do to make it to the finale?

Note I removed Kareem and Arike’s scores from the totals to make it more realistic, seeing as how they won’t be scored on Monday night. As you can see, Jennie and Josh theoretically need only 7.4k more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Chris and Tonya – that is not much. But this Monday you need to beat THREE people in order to make it to the finale, so Jennie (for example) would need to get ONE more vote than Josh AND get the 7.4k more votes per million votes cast to beat BOTH Chris and Tonya. One won’t do it – to stay you have to beat all three people. I doubt very much that Jennie beats any of those three (and definitely not all three), regardless of what order they are in.

But, perhaps a better way to look at it is who is most likely to NOT get beaten or who is likely getting the votes. How are Mirai and Adam looking?  If you look again at table 3, you’ll note that if the spreads stay the same and Adam and Mirai remain firmly at the top of the leaderboard, it will take a lot of votes to dislodge them. In second place are Chris and Tonya – I think one of those two might get replaced with Josh.

Anyway, do you think than Jennie can beat out any of Josh, Chris or Tonya? I don’t. I think she’s low woman on the leader board.  That leaves Tonya, Josh and Chris.  Of those three, who is most likely to be the top dog? Depends on the spread, of course, but I think it goes one of two ways. One: Josh regains his standing from week 1 and goes to the finale with Mirai and Adam. Two: I’m not alone in my dislike of Mirai and she’s a shocking elimination, opening the door for both Tonya and Josh to go to the finale with Adam. Of course, the third possibility is that Tonya is killing it and she goes to the finale with Mirai and Adam.

Too much depends on crappy judging – it’s impossible to tell. If they continue true to form, I tend to think that number one is most likely…but I’m hoping for number two. 😉

May 10, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 26, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

After the show, I started writing this post and re-looking at the numbers once Jamie and Johnny were eliminated…and realized that I’m going to have a hard time wrapping my mind around the fact that there are only three more weeks and two more people go home next week. That’s…crazy. There are only 8 couples left and not a ton of low hanging fruit. Interesting.

Well, this show needs a bit of a shake up in any case. 😊

Who’s my favorite thus far?? Well, I have to say, I really love what Jenna did with Adam. That was a ton of fun. I’m not particularly a Sharna fan and…hold on…I need to go actually watch that dance.

Okay…after that I AM a Josh Norman fan!! That was pretty hot. I still think that Mirai is the best dancer and Adam is a close second with a choreographic advantage…but that doesn’t mean either of them will necessarily win this season. Josh is right up there with them and could win this thing. We’ll see!! I also don’t think Tonya should be counted out.

This season is going to be incredibly tough from a numbers standpoint – I don’t feel like many of the typical metrics I use to GUESS who might be going home are actually there this season. I feel like so much of how well people do this season will depend on nearly instantaneous impressions that people have of a given couple. Typically, that impression is aided by their “fame” at some level prior to the show. Athletes who have been on this show in the past have VERY specific fanbases, unlike actors, models and other types of celebs. When it comes to these athletes, Kareem, the ice skaters and the football player have the odds in their favor with the average viewer – largely due to the popularity of their sport and the name recognition. Coincidentally (or not) the ice skaters and the football player also happen to be the best dancers…and Kareem is an icon. So, I suspect that the ice skaters and the football player are more likely to last to the end. Kareem might not due to lower scores.

Anyway, let’s refresh our memories on how everyone did in terms of scores.

 

Now, if I remember this correctly, the live voting during the show plus judges scores were used to eliminate Jamie and Johnny. The judges scores and the voting after the show by phone and online will result in two more people being eliminated this coming week. Who will it be??
Well, I feel reasonably confident that it will be either Kareem, Arike or Jennie. Of course, no one can be sure. Kareem survived week 1, but he didn’t have to do that much to make it.


As you can see above, he only needed 5k and 10k more votes per million votes cast to stay over Johnny and Jamie, respectively. In order to stay this week he needs 14k more than Arike AND nearly 20k more than Chris or Jennie. Two people going home, means he has to beat two people. I don’t think it’s out of the question that he could do that – half the battle is name recognition and he’s got it where Arike, Chris and Jennie don’t really. It will be tough though. And if he manages to do it, I think it will be Arike and Jenny.

So let’s say that Kareem gets past Arike and Jennie. What do they need to do in order to be safe?


Chris is tied with Jennie as you recall. Well, he only needs ONE more vote than her to be safe. And he needs for Arike to not get 4.8k more votes per million votes cast than him. I don’t think that will be a problem. Personally, I think Arike beats Jennie – she was just more memorable. Problem is, she needs to beat TWO people. I don’t think she gets the votes to get past Mirai, Tonya, Adam or Josh, so she needs to beat BOTH Chris and Jennie, or she needs to beat one of them and have Kareem not cover the spread.

And this is where it’s really hard. I hate double eliminations. My gut is kinda telling me that Arike and Jennie are going to be eliminated – mainly because I think that Kareem can beat Arike and that everyone beats Jennie….which would mean that Jennie and Arike are the two who would be eliminated.

What do you all think?? Am I half right like I was week one? Or completely wrong?

May 4, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 26, Week 2 – Who’s Dancing What…and When? Plus….Team Dances

Week 2 of 4 and if you have seen the teams for team dances (below) you know that one group is really getting hosed. Damn. Anyway, I’ve got two dances and I’m sure more have been revealed, so if you know one, let us know…but we need a SOURCE. Thx. 🙂

Chris Mazdzer and Witney – Viennese Waltz (Song: “Next to Me” by Imagine Dragons)
1-800-868-3403

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Lindsay – Salsa (Song: “La Malanga” by Eddie Paleireri)
1-800-868-3408

Jennie Finch Daigle and Keo – Cha Cha (Song: “Make me Feel” by Janelle Monae)
1-800-868-3405

Mirai Nagasu and Alan – Foxtrot (Song: “It’s a Small World” by O’Nell Brothers Group)
1-800-868-3409

Arike Ogunbowale and Gleb – Foxtrot (Song: “What About Us” by Pink)
1-800-868-3402

Adam Rippon and Jenna – Quickstep (Song: “Make Way” by Aloe Blacc)
1-800-868-3401

Tonya Harding and Sasha – Quickstep (Song: “Redneck Woman” by Gretchen Wilson)
1-800-868-3410

Josh Norman and Sharna – Paso Doble (Song: The Plaza of Execution” by James Horner)
1-800-868-3407

Team 1970’s Football (Song: “Instant Replay” by Dan Hartman)

Mirai Nagasu & Alan Bersten
Adam Rippon & Jenna Johnson
Arike Ogunbowale & Gleb Savchenko
Jennie Finch & Keo Motstepe

Team 1950s Tennis (Song: “…Baby One More Time” by The Baseballs)

Chris Mazdzer & Witney Carson
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar & Lindsay Arnold
Tonya Harding & Sasha Farber
Josh Norman & Sharna Burgess

May 2, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 26, Week 1 – LIVE BLOG (SPOILERS)

All right all ya’ll – check in if you’re watching this season with us. I don’t want to be all alone here, bemoaning the crap or greatness – take your pick. 🙂

T-minus 15 minutes….

Ooooooo…..interesting and dramatic opening!!

Okay, I loved that in all it’s cheesy glory. 🙂

Chris is cute as hell and has some potential. Not necessarily for dancing but….potential. 😉

Damn. That was a lot of Salsa and a lot of lifts for week 1!!

Close your shirt, Bruno. Chris getting good comments from the judges for the most part.

And he pulls three 7s! Kinda predictable, but worthy.

Kareeeeeeeeem!!! He is the legend and the big name for the main demo for this show. And if anyone can work with this Lindsey can. Read more..

April 30, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 26, Week 1 – Who’s Dancing What…and When?

I knew there was something I was forgetting to do…. 🙂 Who’s dancing what? Or..Who’s dancing TO what? Or both.

Voting Note: As we reported a couple weeks ago, there are some changes in the voting, particularly for week 1, this season. Here’s what the ABC.com press release has to say about it.

For week one, the evening’s eliminations will be based on live viewer votes cast during the show’s live broadcast in the EDT/CDT time zones, along with the judges’ scores. During the live season premiere broadcast in the EDT/CDT time zones at 8:00 p.m. EDT/7:00 p.m. CDT on Monday, April 30, viewers may cast their votes for their favorite couples, with these votes helping determine the couples who will move on to the next episode. This vote will be online only via ABC.com, will open at the top of the live show and end shortly after the last couple dances. Then, at the end of the episode, overnight voting will open for phone, ABC.com and Facebook, which will factor into the week two eliminations. Toll-free phone voting will be open nationwide from the end of the live show until 5:00 a.m. EDT/2:00 a.m. PDT on Tuesday. Online voting at ABC.com at http://dwtsvote.abc.go.com/ and on Facebook at http://bit.ly/2o1VO7b will open at the end of the live show and closes at 10:00 p.m. EDT/7:00 p.m. PDT on Tuesday. During each voting window, when voting online at ABC.com or Facebook, viewers can reallocate their votes until the voting window closes.

Heidi Comment – if you are dancing LAST, it’s an extreme disadvantage this time out, so don’t get excited if your favorite is in the “pimp spot”. This first week, at least, is no pimpage at all in going last.

ETA: Tentative dance order for the first four couples, per Rana on Twitter

ETA2: Full dance order is posted below thanks to Lori!

Chris Mazdzer and Witney – Salsa (Song: “Mr. Put It Down” by Ricky Martin featuring Pitbull)
Dancing 1st
1-800-868-3403

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Lindsay – Cha Cha (Song: “Signed, Sealed, Delivered (I’m Yours)” by Stevie Wonder)
Dancing 2nd
1-800-868-3408

Jennie Finch Daigle and Keo – Foxtrot (Song: “All-American Girl” by Carrie Underwood)
Dancing 3rd
1-800-868-3405

Jamie Anderson and Artem – Viennese Waltz (Song: “Feeling Good” by Avicii)
Dancing 4th
1-800-868-3404

Mirai Nagasu and Alan – Salsa (Song: “No Excuses” by Meghan Trainor)
Dancing 5th
1-800-868-3409

Arike Ogunbowale and Gleb – Salsa (Song: “Them Girls” by Whitney Myer)
Dancing 6th
1-800-868-3402

Adam Rippon and Jenna – Cha Cha (Song: “Sissy That Walk” by RuPaul)
Dancing 7th
1-800-868-3401

Johnny Damon and Emma – Foxtrot (Song: “Centerfield” by John Fogerty)
Dancing 8th
1-800-868-3406

Tonya Harding and Sasha – Foxtrot (Song: “When You Believe” by Whitney Houston and Mariah Carey)
Dancing 9th
1-800-868-3410

Josh Norman and Sharna – Cha Cha (Song: “Finesse” by Bruno Mars)
Dancing 10th
1-800-868-3407

April 24, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Karina Smirnoff Defends “A-Listers” Idea At The Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 Launch

Tuesday night, Karina Smirnoff, Peta Murgatroyd, and Damian Whitewood attended the Samsung and Verizon Launch of The Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 in West Hollywood, California. The three looked hotter than ever and represented Dancing With The Stars in their stylish best as you can see. While there, E-Online was able to catch up with Karina to ask her why the show is trying to get more A-listers in “upping their game”. Below is how Karina commented.

But why the sudden snooty ‘tude from DWTS? When we caught up with Karina Smirnoff at the Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 Launch at The Beverly, the dancing vet gave us her input on why the mystery A-listers need to up the show’s game:

“I think it’s great that we’re getting more A-list,” said Karina. “I think we can outdo America’s Got Talent and The Voice.”

I’m sorry, but, in my opinion, Dancing With The Stars shouldn’t try and copy anyone else. I like show just as it is. Plus, they are already at the top of their “A” game, aren’t they? Be sure to read the link in full because E-Online questions the show and their attidude a little and some of the people rumored to dance so far. They also dish who they think would make good “barely” A-Lister potentials. They list Lindsay Lohan, Ellen Degeneres, Demi Moore, Kellen Lutz, and Mariah Carey (no way will Mariah do Dancing With The Stars in my opinion. I think she’s going to be involved with the new US X Factor anyway?).

You can view more pictures of Karina, Peta, and Damian at the Samsung and Verizon Launch of The Samsung Galaxy Launch here and here.

August 4, 2011 I Written By

Just a music and dancing fan here ....and a lover of life, nature, animals, and spending as much time as possible camping in our travel trailer. Favorite Quote at the moment: "Sing like no one is listening. Love like you've never been hurt. Dance like nobody's watching, and live like it's heaven on earth." ~ William Purkey. Follow me at: Voguerista Twitter & Voguerista Soundcloud. To view my photography site, see Lisa Kay Photography.