Itās that time of the year again! Time for me to do my preliminary power ranking of this seasonās couples as a sort of prediction of how things will play out between now & November.Ā For those of you who have no clue what Iām talking about (or just need a refresher from last season š ), I do a weekly ranking of the couples after each performance show that is basically a measure of how likely they are to stick around that week.Ā Now this is NOT a ranking of who danced the best; we all know that just because a couple is at the top of the leaderboard, doesnāt necessarily mean theyāre safe.Ā This is a far more comprehensive ranking ā it takes into account not only a coupleās performance, but also how well-liked they are, how well-known they are, how strong their voting demographic is, how memorable they are, etc.Ā
I correctly predicted last seasonās top 5 before the season even began ā Iām hoping to best that this season by correctly predicting the top 6 š But anywho, hereās my bottom half ā the 6 couples I donāt think we should get too attached to, because I donāt foresee them sticking around for longā¦but there are always surprises!
Ā 12.) Mike āThe Situationā Sorrentino & Karina Smirnoff ā I really did have high hopes for these two, but unfortunately I just think they have too many odds stacked against them to last past the first week ā that is, unless The Sitch turns out to be a natural, because they havenāt even started practicing yet.Ā And they likely wonāt until the week prior to the show, if what Karinaās tweeting is correct, since heās wrapping up taping of the current season of Jersey Shore.Ā Speaking of that show ā Iām on the fence as to whether itās going to be a boon or a burden for him.Ā I said that I didnāt think Wildboyz & Jackass fans would tune in & vote for Steve-O, but he lasted until week 5ā¦but I think Steve-O was also getting a bit of a sympathy vote from his recent stint in rehab.Ā Iām not sure thereās anything for voters to feel sympathetic about as far as Mikeās concerned.Ā And Jersey Shore is a really polarizing show ā people either love it or hate it, so I hope to god that Mike is charming as can be if he wants to stick around.Ā Karina is a pro that seems equally as polarizing ā people seem to either adore her or loathe her (Iām in the former camp), and Iām afraid that her voting fanbase is just not going to be able to compensate for any lack of votes on the part of his fans.Ā I hope to god that Iām wrong, because I really would like to see how these two doā¦but Iām preparing myself to see Mike join the infamous āfirst elimineesā club.
11.) Kyle Massey & Lacey Schwimmer ā The only reason I see these two lasting longer than Mike & Karina is Laceyās fanbase: she seems to have a decent-sized one, and they seem to be the type that are very motivated to vote.Ā Echoing Heidiās sentiments, Kyle is definitely the celebrity that has people going āWho?ā this season ā even co-workers of mine that have kids who watch Disney religiously were drawing a blank when I mentioned his name (and yes, for those of you who are new, I do use the ladies in my office as a sort of sample demographic ā most are in their 30s & 40s with school-aged kids, which seems to be the biggest viewing demographic of the show).Ā As for his dance prowess, if Laceyās tweets and the rehearsal pictures that have been released are any indicator, then Kyle seems to be a bit of an awkward mover ā and a jokester, so Lacey may have a hard time getting him to focus.Ā Kyle may benefit slightly from the āmomā vote, but unless heās really pretty goodā¦I donāt think these two will last past the first few weeks.
10.) Bristol Palin & Mark Ballas ā If Kate Gosselinās longer-than-anyone-could-have-expected tenure on the show last season was any indicator, itās that America loves controversial celebs ā and I daresay Bristol has that position covered this season.Ā Just like Heidi, I donāt see her getting sent home any sooner than week 3 ā heck, I could even see her lasting until week 4 or 5, at the expense of a better dancer.Ā I actually see her lasting longer if sheās exceptionally bad ā just like viewers latch onto the best dancers, they also seem to enjoy keeping the bad ones aroundā¦everyone loves watching a train wreck.Ā Markās also got one of the bigger fanbases on the show, so even if people donāt particularly care for Bristol, theyāll vote to keep Mark in the game, especially since he was eliminated so early last season.Ā Judging from the rehearsal photos, it looks like Markās got his work cut out for him ā Bristol definitely looks awkward.Ā Sheās also been pretty quiet and mundane in the media, so I donāt think sheās gonna make a huge impression in anyoneās minds ā unless sheās just a really bad dancer.Ā In which case, George Lopez may dub her this seasonās Kate, and take it upon himself to campaign to keep her inā¦that fool.
9.) Audrina Patridge & Tony Dovolani ā Ā Thereās been a good amount of debate so far about whether Audrinaās gonna sink or swimā¦Iām leaning towards the former. Audrinaās done a little bit of modeling, and I donāt know of any dancing sheās done (besides what you do in a smoke-filled club), so Iām inclined to think that sheās gonna go more the route of Holly Madison and Kathy Ireland than Melissa Rycroft or Stacy Keibler.Ā Donāt get me wrong, she seems like a very sweet, pretty girl ā a very sweet, pretty girl thatās not gonna make a whole lot of waves, good or bad.Ā And unless sheās got some hidden skills we donāt know about (superhuman flexibility, gymnastics, etc.), I doubt Tonyās choreography is going to really showcase her well.Ā As for voting powerā¦I know The Hills had a cult-like following, but at the same time, just because someone likes that show doesnāt mean they necessarily like Audrina (Iāve known plenty who watched the show who absolutely despised her, for whatever reason).Ā And Tonyās gotten sent home fairly early before ā I donāt think he has the voting fanbase to carry them both.Ā Oh wellā¦at least sheāll look pretty in the costumes!
8.) Margaret Cho & Louis Van Amstel ā No doubt, these two will be the comic relief this season.Ā I didnāt think anyone could top the hilarity of Niecy & Louis, but this very well may do it!Ā Do I think that Margaret is going to be a stellar dancer? Hell no, but neither was Niecy ā Iām pretty sure she & Louis realized that pretty quickly, which is why they went to town working the comedy angle, and it worked for them.Ā Margaret is a well-known comedian, so I could see die hard fans of hers coming out to vote; Louis is a bit more of a wild card, as I donāt really know if he has the broad-spectrum appeal of Derek or Mark ā he does, however, seem to have the support of the LGBT community (as does Margaret), which quite a powerful demographic.Ā I donāt think that alone (and their schtick) is going to carry them through to the midpoint of the competition, though,Ā and Iām not sure thereās a whole lot for Louis to pull out of her in terms of real skill.Ā Margaret is also known to get a bit bawdy in her comedy ā something I think she may have to reign in if she doesnāt want to risk offending a good part of the voting audience.Ā Overall, I think theyāll be fun to watch ā but the humor will eventually wear thin and pale in comparison to better dancers and bigger fanbases.
7.) Michael Bolton & Chelsie Hightower ā I know some people donāt really have high hopes for these two, but I think some people are really underestimating Michaelās appeal ā I remember grown women & teenagers alike going CRAZY for this guy in the early 90s.Ā As in screaming, crying, and bra-throwing crazy.Ā And to be honest, the guy has aged pretty well ā heās definitely not terrible to look at (thank god he got rid of that ratty-ass hair!), and heās still making music.Ā I would bet those same women from 20 years ago still carry a bit of a torch for him, and they will step up to the plate & vote.Ā As will the growing population of Chelsie fans ā I think sheās all but filled in the role of the blonde, Mormon girl-next-door left vacant by Julianne.Ā Will Michael be one of the breakout dancers of this season? Meh ā probably not.Ā But I do think heāll make an honest effort, and I daresay he wonāt be nearly as bad as some other guys.Ā And honestly, Iām actually starting to warm to the idea of he & Chelsie togetherā¦it doesnāt seem like quite the odd couple that it first appeared, especially when you compare them to Ashly & Buzz (which, oddly enough, seemed to work as well).Ā I honestly vacillated between putting them at 6th or 7th ā and I still think they could potentially make it to the top half of the pack.Ā But I think itāll hinge upon how the couple I placed at #6 doesā¦
ā¦and with that, I give you the first half of my pre-season power rankings š Curious about who I have making it to the finale, and who I have taking home the mirrorball trophy? Then stay tuned for part IIā¦and Iāll give you a hint: my winner is different from the one Heidi predicted š