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DWTS Season 25, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers!

This week, like last week, seems fairly obvious with regard to who’s going to go home. But beyond that? This show feels like anybody’s game.

But first things first…let’s not waste any time. The judges were quite clear with their preference this past week, underscoring Drew a bit to make sure he is the one to leave this coming Monday. They didn’t underscore him but by a point or so, but it may not take much more than that. Let’s take a look at the scores.

…Read more

November 17, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, THE FINALE – Who’s Dancing What…and When?

We have redemption dances, we have freestyles and god only knows what else!! Oh, right, A FUN FINALE!!

At this moment I only have some redemption dances, thanks to Casanova finding them on the DWTS Instagram account.

ETA: Lots more info now and I’m liking most of what I’m seeing here!! Frankie has two good songs although he might suffer in comparison to previous uses of “Run Boy Run” – LOVE his Frank Sinatra song.  Honestly, I don’t see any real stinkers in here…yet. 🙂

Drew Scott and Emma
Monday
Redemption Dance: Paso Doble with Bruno as Coach (Song: “Get Ready” by Rayelle)
Freestyle (Song: “The Ding Dong Daddy of the D-car Line” by the Cherry Poppin’ Daddies)
Tuesday:
Repeat Performance
24-hour Fusion Challenge
1-800-868-3404

Jordan Fisher and Lindsay
Monday
Redemption Dance: Charleston with Len as Coach (Song: “Bad Man” by Pitbull)
Freestyle (Song: “Puttin’ on the Ritz 2017” Jazzy Mix by Taco)
Tuesday:
Repeat Performance
24-hour Fusion Challenge
1-800-868-3406

Lindsey Stirling and Mark
Monday
Redemption Dance: Quickstep with Julianne as Coach (Song: “Barflies at the Beach” by Royal Crown Review)
Freestyle (Song: “Remember the Name” by Fort Minor/”Palladio” by Escala (Medley))
Tuesday:
Repeat Performance
24-hour Fusion Challenge
1-800-868-3407

Frankie Muniz and Whitney
Monday
Redemption Dance: Foxtrot with CAI as Coach (and a solo??)(Song: “I Won’t Dance” by Frank Sinatra)
Freestyle (Song: “Run Boy Run” by Woodkid)
Tuesday:
Repeat Performance
24-hour Fusion Challenge
1-800-868-3405

It’s a Charleston from Len! #TeamFishUponAStar gets assigned WAY MORE Lindy hop for their redemption dance. #DWTS #Finals

A post shared by Dancing with the Stars (@dancingabc) on

November 16, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, I knew it was going to be an “interesting” week for the numbers but I had no idea until I actually ran them. 🙂

But first…we’re at that point in the season when most couples are putting out some good dances. Last Monday was no exception. In fact, there was only one disaster and that was shockingly Victoria and Val; that trio was just horrible. I have no idea what Val was thinking. If it wasn’t for the near constant displays of ego from him, I would guess that the producers talked him into making that Trio all about Laurie with Victoria as an afterthought. Unfortunately for Victoria, the video flashback of Val’s win seems right up Val’s alley. I can’t even imagine any other pro (not even Maks, I don’t think) doing such a thing. Made me a bit sad for Victoria.

Anyhow, once you look at the numbers, it’s very obviously either Drew or Victoria going home this coming week.  First, the totals for all couples.

Yeah, a fairly significant vote difference between the top three and the two low scorers. But it gets worse.

As you can see, Drew only needs about 3,200 votes per million votes cast in order to be safe over Victoria. I think he will manage to get that 3,200 votes. He’s getting hosed by the judges plus his dances just have more impact. I also think that his fanbase is far larger than either Victoria’s or Val’s. Always a tough call when someone has to cover a margin, though…even a tiny one.

And, as you can also see, there are no other avenues for Drew – if he wants to be safe he needs to beat Victoria because Frankie, Lindsey and Jordan are way out of reach for him (I believe), starting at a more than 19k vote margin to pass Frankie.

Let’s assume that Drew covers that spread to beat Victoria. What does Victoria need to do to be safe?

See, this is where the bad news really starts. And why it has to be either Drew or Victoria. Drew needs more than 19k more votes per million votes cast and Victoria needs nearly 16k more votes per million votes cast to get past Frankie – and I just don’t see either of them being able to do that. For this season, that is a LOT of votes against a guy like Frankie. I don’t see it happening.

In a nutshell, for Victoria to be safe, she needs ONE of the following things to happen:

  • She needs for Drew to NOT get the 3,200 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • She needs to get 16,000 more votes per million votes cast than Frankie, OR;
  • She needs to get 19,200 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey, OR;
  • She needs to get 38,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jordan.

Do you see any of that happening? The only possible way to safety that I see for Victoria is through Drew.

So, Frankie, Lindsey and Jordan are almost certainly safe and either Drew or Victoria will be eliminated.

Which one? Well, I could certainly be wrong because so many in the cast have been very similar in terms of skill and fanbase this season that it’s been a tough call all the way, but I think it’s Victoria’s time to go.  And this makes me sad, because she seems like such a great girl – but I think she’s plateaued and I think the audience will agree.

What do you think? Victoria or Drew??

November 10, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, The Semi-Finals – Who’s Dancing What…and When?

So, the pros have chosen the song for the first dance of the night. I remember a time when the pros chose all of their own music. Guess that’s rarely the case any more, since they’re making a production about it being the case monday night.  In addition,  the press release says: “The Couples’ Second Dance Will Take on an Iconic Routine From a Past Season”.  Well, that’s not good news at all. In the past they’ve done the routine and then other times they’ve only used the music but did new choreo. This sounds like it will be the whole routine. Yikes.  Then later in the release it says: “The second is a special Iconic Dance, where each will be challenged to reinterpret an iconic dance from past seasons in this all-important Semi-Finals extravaganza.” The word “reinterpret” gives me some hope, but I think we’ll have to wait and see. As per usual, the producers give some mixed messages.

Personally, I think Nicole’s Proud Mary jive was the iconic dance…but then I think most of the dances they picked as “iconic” are not even close to the most iconic dances ever done on the show. Except for Amber’s, of course – which Val may just destroy. Of all the dances Amber did, though, I don’t think that’s the one that’s iconic. The Jazz, the freestyle…ah well. I guess they were limited by both music and styles not yet danced. But why label them iconic when they really aren’t??

Winners: Jordan and Lindsey S. each got two styles they should be able to handle with ease. Not only that, but Mark ought to be able to improve tremendously on Maks’ Tango chore and Lindsay will have no problem with the Jordan/Jive combo, I don’t think.

50-50: Victoria’s first dance, the Waltz, should be easy on her, but trying to live up to Amber could be very problematic, depending on what the “rules” of this game are this season. Are they required to use similar choreo/similar costumes?? Will they show excerpts of the original – if they do any of that she could be hosed. If it’s all completely new she might be okay.

Losers: Drew and Frankie, for a variety of reasons – take your pick.

ETA: George has started releasing the running order…and so far it’s the same as last week.  As in the past, I begin to wonder if they’re dancing in the order they’re going to finish, reversed.  Sometimes it’s true, sometimes it ain’t.  But this wouldn’t surprise me, although I think Victoria should go tonight.

ETA2: Okay, not the same as last week. And likely not in the order they’re going to finish. But ya never know. 🙂

Drew Scott and Emma
Dancing 1st
Tango (Song: “I’m Gonna Be (500 Miles)” by The Proclaimers)
Jazz (Song: “Yeah!” (feat. Lil Jon, Ludacris) by Usher (Season 17, Corbin Bleu and Karina Smirnoff))
1-800-868-3404

Victoria Arlen and Val
Dancing 2nd
Waltz (Song: “To Build a Home” (feat. Patrick Watson) by Cinematic Orchestra)
Charleston (Song: “Bang Bang” by will.i.am (Season 17, Amber Riley and Derek Hough))
1-800-868-3413

Jordan Fisher and Lindsay
Dancing 3rd
Argentine Tango (Song: “Brother” (feat. Gavin DeGraw) by NEEDTOBREATHE)
Jive (Song: “Proud Mary” by Tina Turner (Season 22, Paige VanZant and Mark Ballas)
1-800-868-3406

Lindsey Stirling and Mark
Dancing 4th
Contemporary (Song: “Head High” by Alexander Jean)
Tango (Song: “Feel So Close” by Calvin Harris (Season 18, Meryl Davis and Maks Chmerkovskiy))
1-800-868-3407

Frankie Muniz and Whitney
Dancing 5th
Salsa (Song: “Shake” by Yin Yang Twins & Pitbull)
Paso Doblé (Song: “Carnival De Paris” by Dario G (Season 4, Apolo Anton Ohno and Julianne Hough))
1-800-868-3405

November 9, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, I’ve never seen a more disgusting, egregious display perhaps EVER on DWTS – and that’s really saying something. Of course I’m referring to the judging and scoring of the team dances this past week. Was Team Monster Mash perfect? Of course not. But what about Team Phantom? Were they perfect? HELL NO. What kind of moron actually believes there is a six point difference between the team with the better choreographers and better dancers (and the more difficult, innovative choreography) and the team with…issues. I like all the dancers left, but come ON. Utterly ridiculous. You know, if the judges thought Team Phantom were the better team, fine. Give them a point or two…or even three…higher. But SIX POINTS?? Fucking ridiculous and so very transparent. So how much trouble is Vickie in??

Well, I think it is probably mission accomplished. I’m tempted to go back through the seasons and do an accounting of how often at this point in the season some kind of ridiculous BS occurs in order to save some dancer that the producers need to stick around for a while longer. I bet we would be shocked at how often it happens. In fact, I probably WILL go through and do a post on it. But in the meantime, off the top of my head, the first one I remember is Chelsea Kane and her crazy high immunity points. There have been several since then, but that’s the first one I remember. It’s been several days and I’m still pissed.

Anyway, let’s do a bit of a look back before we look at the numbers for Monday night.  Nikki and Vanessa were both eliminated and they were not at the top of the leaderboard.  In order for Nikki and Vanessa – who were tied with each other – to be eliminated, ALL of the following things had to happen:

  • Drew got 19,700 more votes per million votes cast than BOTH of the, AND;
  • Frankie AND Victoria got 16,400 more votes per million votes cast than both of them, AND;
  • Neither Nikki nor Vanessa could cover the 3,300 votes point spread to pass Terrell, and so on up the leader board.

Now, I’m inclined to think that three people getting that many votes to be safe over two people in the middle of the leaderboard means that those two people were not getting many votes, more than those three people getting a tone of votes. Of course, both things could be true, but we won’t know until it’s all over.  For example, Audrina Patridge got voted out in a “shocking” elimination back in the day – one that both Courtney and I predicted beforehand.  For that to happen, MANY people (five) got more votes than her, including Kurt Warner who got something like 45k more votes per million votes cast; a huge number that hasn’t been beaten since.  BUT, Kurt was then evicted two weeks later, after Rick Fox, who also was below Audrina on the leaderboard. In that instance, it became fairly obvious that no one was voting for Audrina.  Make sense?

So, just because Drew, Frankie AND Victoria all stayed while Vanessa and Nikki were eliminated doesn’t mean that those three are bullet proof and getting a ton of votes.  On the contrary, it’s possible that any one of the three could be eliminated any time now. But will they? Well, check it out:

 

Terrell is on the bottom, but not by a lot. The problem for Terrell is that we’re down to 6 and my read on the season is that of everyone left, Terrell and Victoria are the two weakest fanbases. And Victoria has a nice cushion – thanks to the aforementioned crap ass team dance scoring. But I’m sure that’s completely legit. :::smirk::: Not.   Anyway, what does Terrell need to be safe?

As you can see, Terrell only needs about 4,600 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey and 11,700 more votes per million votes cast than Jordan in order to be safe. It can be kinda tricky, what the judges have done here. What I mean is that I think that Frankie and Drew are getting plenty of votes, while Lindsey and Jordan are getting great scores and a good number of votes. The question is, have Lindsey and Jordan been more sustained by scores than they have by votes, or are they getting a ton of votes as well?  I kinda feel like Lindsey has the jump on Jordan when it comes to votes…and I think she has the jump on Terrell as well. She doesn’t need to get more votes than Terrell, she just has to be not getting 4,600 per million LESS. And I don’t think she is – I think she’s every bit as charming as Frankie, with her pixie pig tails, and every bit as fun as Drew. Jordan I’m not as sure about any more – for whatever reason he doesn’t seem to connect as much as Lindsey does.  That said, I don’t think Terrell is covering the spread.

If there is anyone Terrell could beat, I would think it’s Victoria – but I also think she might be out of reach this week.  Terrell would have to get 18,700 more votes per million votes cast than her. That’s a pretty good number at this stage of the competition.

So, to sum it up, Terrell needs ONE of the following things to happen in order to be safe:

  • He needs to get about 4,600 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey, OR;
  • He needs about 11,700 more votes per million votes cast than Jordan, OR;
  • He needs about 18,700 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew or Victoria, OR;
  • He needs to get about 26k more votes per million votes cast than Frankie.

As much as Terrell is growing on me, I’m hoping he’s not beating anyone above him with the exception of Victoria. Nothing against her, but her partner could use a bit of humble pie, to say the least.

I could go on but I feel that Terrell is the one who will be eliminated this week. My record is crap this season, after being so good last season, so it’s very possible that my read is way off. Expect to see either Jordan or Lindsey (or both) in jeopardy along with Terrell.  If it’s a shocking elimination, I would expect that Terrell would be called safe right away. We best hope that doesn’t happen. If it does, we’ll need to do a post mortem, because these contestants seem kinda close to me and I don’t know who might go if not Terrell.

What do you think?

November 3, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 8 – Who’s Dancing What…and When?

Well, we got the trios from People.com so this post is going up a good bit earlier than normal. When I’m still super pissed about the bogus underscoring of Team Monster Mash and massive over scoring of Team Phantom. It’s called “protect the C-boy at all costs” – which is going to be the death of this show. Their pathetic inability to just let the show evolve naturally – and in such a transparent way – is just sad. If Val was all that, he wouldn’t need the help. What would have happened if both teams got all 9’s? Well, I would guess that Victoria would be eliminated. Now, she’s near the top of the leaderboard.

ETA: New info highlighted red!! Dance order per George Pennachio. 

Terrell Owens and Cheryl
Dancing 1st and 7th
Charleston (Song: “Bad Boy Good Man” by Tape Five)
Rumba Trio with Kelly Monaco (Song: “Slow Hands” by Niall Horan)
1-800-868-3411

Drew Scott and Emma
Dancing 2nd and 8th
Waltz (Song: “Both Sides Now” by Years & Years)
Cha Cha Trio with Rashad Jennings (Song: “Get Up Offa That Thing” by James Brown)
1-800-868-3404

Victoria Arlen and Val
Dancing 3rd and 9th
Argentine Tango (Song: “Down” by Marian Hill)
Jive Trio with Laurie Hernandez (Song: “Magic” by B.o.B (feat. Rivers Cuomo))
1-800-868-3413

Lindsey Stirling and Mark
Dancing 4th and 10th
Samba (Song: “Morning Drums” by Gregor Salto)
Jazz Trio with Kristi Yamaguchi  (Song: “Let’s Face The Music And Dance” by Seth MacFarlane)
1-800-868-3407

Frankie Muniz and Whitney
Dancing 5th and 11th
Viennese Waltz (Song: “Perfect” by Ed Sheeran)
Jive Trio with Alfonso Riberio (Song: “Good Place” by Leo Soul)
1-800-868-3405

Jordan Fisher and Lindsay
Dancing 6th and 12th
Quickstep (Song: “Chuck Berry” by Pharrell Williams)
Salsa Trio with Corbin Blue (Song: “Que Viva La Vida” by Wisin)
1-800-868-3406

October 30, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Welp, this is one of those weeks where I’m really not sure what’s going to happen…but it will probably be an eye-opening week. We’re going to find out what Drew and Frankie (and Victoria) are made of, most likely. Why? Well, I feel like all of them are probably solid vote getters, but we really don’t know for sure that that’s true.

One of those three is most likely to go home, IMO, because there is a pretty big break between the upper tier and the bottom tier scorers this past week. Check it out. Read more..

October 28, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 7 – Who’s Dancing What…and When?

Happy Halloween!! I’m carving pumpkins at work on Monday, but hopefully home in time for the show. 🙂 Here’s a bit from the press release that might interest you:

In addition, the celebrities and their pros will be grouped into two teams – Team Monster Mash (team captain is Terrell Owens) and Team Phantom of the Opera (team captain Drew Scott) – with each performing a dance to celebrate All Hallow’s Eve. The two team captains were chosen because they had the lowest cumulative scores across the season, and they were given the chance to pick their teams in order to help boost their rankings with both the judges and viewers. The team dance scores will be combined with the celebrity’s individual dance scores for a final tally.

Er, seriously?? You have THREE Pasos yet everyone else has a different style? Why? And do these songs seem Halloween-y to you all?? Not really to me, but I guess it depends on the staging, etc.

Winners: The Paso people might be the winners, especially Lindsey since she gets to pimp her own song. 🙂 Frankie should be alright with Contemporary. I would guess that Cheryl can do a killer (pun intended) Tango but, man, can’t deal with that song.

Losers: A Jive to “I put a spell on you”??? Huh. I guess I’ll have to listen to it, but this doesn’t sound like a good plan. A Halloween Charleston? Again, huh. We’ll see.

ETA: And George is starting to get the dance order…Victoria is dancing first tonight. Just a reminder that in week 7, the dance order no longer means nearly as much. Although, since we still have 8 couples it’s NOT irrelevant.

Victoria Arlen and Val – Viennese Waltz (Song: “The Night We Met” by Lord Huron)
Dancing 1st
1-800-868-3413

Jordan Fisher and Lindsay – Paso Doblé (Song: “Animals” by Martin Garrix)
1-800-868-3406

Nikki Bella and Artem – Jive (Song: “I Put a Spell on You” by Bette Midler (“Hocus Pocus” version))
1-800-868-3409

Vanessa Lachey and Maks – Paso Doblé (Song: “Game of Survival” by Ruelle)
1-800-868-3412

Terrell Owens and Cheryl – Tango (Song: “Super Freak” by Rick James)
1-800-868-3411

Lindsey Stirling and Mark – Paso Doblé (Song: “Roundtable Rival” by Lindsey Stirling)
1-800-868-3407

Frankie Muniz and Whitney – Contemporary (Song: “Every Breath You Take” by Chase Holfelder)
1-800-868-3405

Drew Scott and Emma – Charleston (Song: “Remains of the Day” by Danny Elfman)
1-800-868-3404

Team Monster Mash

Team Phantom of the Opera

Team Drew and Team Terrell – already discussed quite a bit in Courtney’s post.

October 26, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

PureDWTS Season 25, Week 7 – *SPOILERS* The Team Dances!!!

Bear with me, friends, as I’m getting incomplete info and trying to type this out on my iPhone without my glasses, which I left at the office…wuh wuh wuhhhh.

Apparently they went a completely different route picking the captains this time – Drew is one of the captains, and Terrell is the other, which leads me to think they went with lowest cumulative score instead of highest this time around. No, I don’t know which order they picked in, so do not assume the order the couples are listed is somehow indicative of picking order. All I know is that the dances are freestyles again…will update if/when I know more.

First impressions? I think Terrell’s team has a ginormous edge – and I think if the Chmerkovskiys are wise, they’ll let Emma and Witney have input.

UPDATE: Added songs, and grabbed Drew’s team name from a Snapchat someone tweeted me. About 90% sure Drew got to pick first and chose to pick music, which would have given Terrell first pick of team members.

UPDATE #2: There’s some pix of the teams at People – although I will point out that Maks was actually referring to his team as “Phantom of the Ballroom” and not “Phantom of the Opera” on Instagram/Snapchat.

Team Phantom of the Ballroom (song: “Theme from Phantom of the Opera”)

Drew & Emma (captain)

Frankie & Witney

Vanessa & Maks

Victoria & Val

Team Monster Mash (Song: “Monster Mash”)

Terrell & Cheryl (captain)

Lindsey & Mark

Jordan & Lindsay

Nikki & Artem

 

Note: These are two different polls. The team you think has the edge isn’t necessarily the one that will win. 🙂

October 24, 2017 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, baker, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Follow me (and my dog!) on Twitter & Instagram: @putuincespence & @BirkinTheBulldog

Sneak Peeks at DWTS Season 25 Week 6 (Photos)

I’ve been seeing a lot of photos of little peeks at Monday’s show so I figured I’d put them all in a post.  Love Nikki and Artem’s costumes, and Witney’s belongs in Courtney’s “Who Wore it Better” series. 🙂

Read more..

October 22, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)