DWTS Season 25, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!

You really want me to believe that SIX couples all got a 24 on the same night?? That’s utterly ridiculous.

I also am having a hard time with a top three that consists of Jordan, Lindsey and…Victoria?? Very nice girl and all, but in no way was she a point ahead of Lindsey and 3 points above the rest of the pack. Makes you wonder if she’s in a bit of trouble. I don’t find her much more memorable than Sasha, sad to say. And the producers are certainly more invested in Val than they are Gleb, for some strange reason.

Now that you mention it, Frankie, Jordan, Lindsey and TO were the ones that are still sticking with me several days after the show aired. Not a great sign for the rest, I must say. Drew and Nikki are up there as well – and kudos to Artem and Emma for making sure that their celebs don’t fade into the woodwork. Neither is coasting and both are doing some good work here. Both did a brilliant job showcasing their celeb and doing something to get the audience talking. They are not coasting.

That doesn’t mean they’ll be safe…but I do think that Jordan, Lindsey and Victoria are our “safe” ones this week.  What does the leaderboard look like? Well, like I was saying – pretty damn simple.

So, Nick is the low man on the totem pole.  And there are 6 people above him all with the same score. The question is: does Nick have the ability to get enough votes more than any of that 6 to be safe? What kind of votes are we talking about?

So, Nick needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than the 6 people immediately above him on the leader board – Frankie, Nikki, Sasha, Vanessa, Drew and TO.   Question is: does he have the juice to beat any of those people?

I’m thinking there are one or two that he might be able to pass. I know I called Sasha as the one to be eliminated last week and nothing has changed to make me thing she’s any safer this week. Nikki is the only other one in that group that I feel like could be in danger.

Thing is, when someone is put in jeopardy it can go one of two ways. Typically (or as of the last time I studied it), if you are put in jeopardy, it means that you’re not long for this world. There are, of course, exceptions to this rule. But Nick’s problem is that he’s been there more than once – so it’s only a matter of time, IMO, before he’s gone. But the producers putting you in jeopardy does often stimulate votes. Is that working this time? Hell if I know. 😉

At the end of the day, I think it comes down to Nick, Sasha and Nikki. One of those three isn’t long for this show.  We already know that Nick needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than the group above him, but what about that group? Who is most likely to be safe??

Well, I don’t think there is any way that that group gets 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey. But they don’t have to – they only need ONE more vote per million to be safe over the others in their group.  So, out of Frankie, TO, Vanessa, Nikki, Sasha and Drew, who are the kids getting the votes? Well, I think Frankie and Drew always were getting the votes. I think, after last week, TO is getting the votes for a while longer. He sure won me over. That leaves us with Vanessa, Nikki and Sasha. I think Vanessa is doing fine – she’s only in trouble if crazy fans decide that Maks is very upset to be dancing with her…or vice versa. I feel like she’s still good for a bit.

Once again, we are left with Nikki, Nick and Sasha – honestly, I feel like Nikki is safe and it’s going to come down to Nick and Sasha. But your guess is as good as mine.  For Nikki to be safe she needs ONE of the following things to happen:

• Nikki needs for Nick to NOT get the 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
• Nikki needs for ONE of Sasha, Vanessa, TO, Frankie and Drew to NOT get ONE more vote per million votes cast than her, OR;
• Nikki needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey.

And so on. That last one is unlikely to happen, but I can certainly see Sasha not getting more votes than her. And if Sasha is, is Nick getting the 7,400? I have a hard time believing that he still has that kind of fanbase.  My gut is saying that Nikki is safe.

Which leaves us with Nick and Sasha. Nick and Sasha, Sasha and Nick.  No idea. One part of me is saying that Nick is finally done, but Sasha is just such a non-event for me. Nick is too, but he’s memorable in his badness, not to mention that he’s getting double the screen time of everyone other than his wife. That being said, the show probably can’t support three fam members beyond week 5 and the fam fans are more likely to go with Maks and Val over Peta. Mores the pity.

I kinda feel like Nick is done…but ask me again in 5 minutes and it will be Sasha. If it’s either one of those two, I’ll call this week a win for me. If not, well, it’s just impossible. 🙂