DWTS 14 Preliminary Power Rankings, Part II
Alright kids – so on Tuesday, I counted down my picks for the bottom half of this season, and heard some great feedback from you guys. Now onto the top half…and my prediction for the winner! 🙂
6.) Sherri & Val – Let me remind you guys that these rankings are certainly NOT a ranking of who is and isn’t my favorite, and really just who I think has staying power and who doesn’t. That said, Sherri gets on my last nerve – and I know I’m not alone. That right there could be her biggest obstacle this season: just completely turning people off with her loud, in-you-face personality. I noticed many of you commented that you either put Sherri’s media clips on mute or didn’t watch them at all because Sherri was so annoying – can you imagine if that’s what she’s going to be like every week on DWTS? 😯 If she manages to not turn off the viewing audience, she has a big advantage in that she gets more media exposure on a daily basis than any of the other cast members this season – she’s on a popular morning show on a major network. And what demographic do you think that morning show really caters to? The same middle-aged female demographic that does the bulk of the viewing of DWTS. Even if she can’t blatantly promote herself on The View for votes on DWTS, just the fact that she’s got daily exposure will keep her fresh in people’s minds. She also seems to have had some…ahem…”preparation” prior to the start of this season. She’s definitely moving better than the average celeb with 3 weeks of training already. Will it really give her an edge in the long run? Probably not a huge one, as I’ve always been of the opinion that a naturally-talented dancer (like Jaleel or Roshon) will always have an easier time picking up dance moves & choreography than a better-prepared celeb that’s not so much of a natural mover. As for her pro – I think the jury’s still out on Val. I don’t think we really got a good idea of what he’s capable of last season, so I think this time around will be the real test. There’s also the potential vote splitting in play – that’s another factor that I’m not sure we got to see play out last season. If both Val & Maks’ partners stick around for awhile, will vote splitting come into play? Could be an interesting variable in the competition.
5.) Donald & Peta – Seeing what I have of Donald in interviews & rehearsals so far, I daresay he might be the most determined celeb this season – he’s talking about reviewing rehearsal tapes, special diets, marathon practice sessions, the works! But the very thing that gives him an edge could also be his downfall: being overly determined. As paradoxical as it sounds, being too determined can almost be as detrimental as not caring at all – I’ve found that couples who are desperate to win often reach a point where they put too much pressure on themselves and flame out…a good example is Aaron Carter. Remember the post-rumba meltdown in the confessional? Too much pressure on yourself, dude. I think they can also turn viewers off, too – the stench of desperation is not a pleasant one, and viewers can totally tell when a celeb has stopped having fun and just entered the “wayyyyy too competitive” territory. However, if he can strike a nice balance between being determined and also just enjoying himself, I think he could be a big force to be reckoned with – of the 3 other NFL players who did the show while they were currently playing for a team, the lowest any of them have placed is 4th. Perhaps because they’re still in peak physical form? Athleticism has obviously proven to be a huge asset. Then there’s the famous NFL fanbase – and in this case, he’s got a very unique one backing him: the “cheeseheads”, or Green Bay Packers fans. A lot of people don’t know this, but the Packers are the only team in the NFL that is non-profit and publicly-owned – meaning that there isn’t some wealthy individual or corporate entity that claims ownership of the team. As a result, the Packers have remained a very “small town”-type team, with a surprisingly large legion of fiercly loyal fans. I’ve witnessed it firsthand, as many of the people in my office are originally from Wisconsin and the big talk of Donald waltzing away with the trophy began mere hours after the cast announcement (I actually have an official wager going with our GM…maybe I’ll go into further detail in another post ;-)). In short – these are some WICKEDLY DEVOTED fans. I would even say they could give the Steeler Nation a run for their money. I’m definitely fascinated to see how it plays out 🙂 As for Peta…she, like Val, isn’t truly battle-tested, so we may finally get to see what she’s made of this season. If Donald could strike the right balance of competitiveness & fun, if the cheeseheads can put together an efficient voting effort, and if Peta can create some great routines…these two could be a bit of a dark horse to win.
4.) Maria & Derek – While I certainly don’t think Maria is going to truly suck this season, I’m also not sold that she’s finale material, either – I guess I’m leaning towards her being more of a Joanna or Jennie than a Ricki or Jennifer. Yes, Derek is a huge asset and I think Maria does have some potential…but I think she’s going to pose more of a challenge than the last 3 partners that he’s had. She’s not really an entertainer so much as she is a reporter, so I think really playing to the crowd may not come as easily to her as we might assume. Then’s there’s what I like to call the “goober factor” – that’s how silly the celeb feels when trying to dance 🙂 I get the feeling Maria is probably still dealing with the whole “I feel like such a goofball” feeling when she’s dancing – the key is to not show on your face that you feel totally silly while dancing 😉 The good news is that it does seem to go away with time (just watch Romeo’s face change from dance-to-dance in season 12), so if she get over feeling silly & embarassed while dancing, she ought to be ok. Assets? She’s got a rockin’ bod, and isn’t exactly painful to look at – and she looks good with Derek. Never hurts to be visually compatible! She’s probably also pretty fit & healthy (see aforementioned rockin’ bod), and does seem pretty energetic. Not sure how things are going to play out in the media, though, as all of the rival gossip rags have decided not to acknowledge that she’s even on DWTS since she’s on Extra. I think they ought to be ok, as long as they’re making a splash in other media – and tweeting A LOT. In the end, though, I think she will probably fall to the sentimental favorites with big fanbases, even if she’s the better dancer…but I think she’s at least make the semifinals.
3.) Roshon & Chelsie – I know this probably seems a little high, but for some reason, I can’t shake the feeling that Roshon will somehow end up being the “judges’ pet” this season, similar to Chelsea in season 12: a great dancer that maybe wasn’t quite as popular with the viewers, so the judges threw a little extra “help” her way. Based on what I’ve seen thus far, I’m fully expecting Roshon to be the biggest skill ringer this season – I think he’s got the dance experience and the athleticism to possibly be the best technical dancer this season. But there are a few pretty major problems here, and chief among them seems to be Roshon’s ego. I know I’m not the only one who has watched videos of him and thought “Man, that kid sure seems full of himself!” Whether that’s the real Roshon or just an act, I’m not sure – but he needs to pull a Romeo and show a kinder, calmer, more vulnerable side if he wants to connect with viewers. All the 10’s in the world from the judges are not gonna keep you from being sent home if the viewers think you’re a cocky little jerk. The second problem is fanbase – he’s a Disney kid, and DWTS has always done pretty poorly with the younger demographic. He’s gonna have to win over some of the middle-aged voters pretty quickly if he wants to stick around. Then there’s Chelsie – another pro that I don’t think has quite mastered the art of success on DWTS. She still seems to be in her formative phase, where she’s figuring out her identity as a choreographer and still tinkering with what choreography works and what doesn’t. She, like Cheryl, also seems a bit guilty of dancing around her partner when the going really gets tough. However, I do think her choreography improves each season, and I think her season off may have given her some good perspective – it’s easier to see the writing on the wall when you’re on the outside looking in. I think these two could stick around for quite awhile should Roshon really be a good dancer, but then I also have this gut feeling he could be a shock elimination in the 3rd or 4th week. Bah…who knows 🙂
2.) Melissa & Maks – I’m thinking Melissa’s journey on the show will be kinda similar to Kirstie’s – maybe not the best or most consistent dancer, but a big fan favorite. She, like Kirstie, seems to be a popular star from the days of many of the viewers’ younger days, and she’s also a very well-respected actress. I also think she’s got a strong constitution and isn’t going to burst into tears the moment Maks raises his voice 🙂 As for dance skills – from what I’ve seen of her so far, she’s neither terrible nor stellar; I’ve heard she also has an existing back injury that could pose some problems. I do think Maks will have to work around that, and shouldn’t expect her to be throwing herself headlong into any crazy lifts or tricks. And as for Maks – I really have no clue where he stands this season. Maybe “Mad Maks” alternates seasons, so we’re due for a calm one this time around. I don’t doubt he’s still quite popular, and has a fanbase that rivals only Derek’s. However, I’m not sure how many people he may have turned off after his antics last season – or how much forgiveness voters have left in them this season. Maks could be skating on thin ice with some viewers – will he be able to resist the urge to lock horns with the judges or say careless things in the media? Who knows. There’s also the possible vote splitting that could occur should both he & Val stick around for awhile this season. We never really got to see it play out last season, since Elisabetta was eliminated so early. Overall, though, I just have a hunch that Melissa & Maks’ combined fanbases will carry them through to the finale – as will their hard work.
1.) Jaleel & Kym – I said it on the day of the cast announcement, and I still stand by it: it’s Jaleel’s to lose this season. He, to me, is the “full package” – he has some natural dance skill, he’s charismatic, he’s savvy in the media, he’s got the right demographic behind him, and he’s got amazing chemistry with his partner. The kid has some moves, and he seems to be picking up choreography quite quickly – hell, he was already giving us a preview of his jive at the cast announcement! And speaking of the cast announcement – wow, did he have a presence or what?! He’s just so smooth, articulate, and personable in what he says – and funny, too 🙂 I also think he’s got the right attitude going into the competition: he wants to do well, but overall he’s there to have fun and please his mother. Demographically-speaking, he is similar to Melissa in that he is likely quite well-remembered (and liked) by the middle-aged female population, and he could also pick up some votes from the smaller cross-section of younger viewers watching the show. I don’t think they could have picked a better partner for him than Kym – she’s got a similar laid-back attitude, and knows the right things to say in the media. They seem to get alone quite well – I’m not sure I would be so sold on Jaleel as the winner had he been paired with someone else. Potential problems? Nothing huge, but he might be battling Melissa, Martina, & Sherri for votes from the middle-aged demographic, and while many fans are clamoring for him to do the Urkel bit, I’m not so sure he will…I honestly hope he doesn’t cave into the pressure and do Urkel just because he can. But in all honesty, barring any catastrophic injury, I don’t see any big obstacles in Jaleel’s path to the MBT 😉
So who do you guys think will make the finale? Who do you think will fall short? And who do you think will win? 😉 The premiere is only 3 days away!!! Who’s pumped? 😀
I agree with you but Idk if Jaleel is going to be that well known outsid of peoples born in the 90s and their parents. In a world full of teenage stars on every network I feel like teens now are just going to say “oh a former tv star looking to get famous again” and write him off real quick. Saying that, I would place him in 5th place with Melissa and Maks coming in first since lets face it Maks is ppular, she can dance, and it helps she waso n on of the most popular tv shows of all time and everyone knows the show.
Nothing to say here but – “On the money, honey!” 😀 Fantastic analysis, and spot-on!!! THANK YOU, COURTNEY!
On a side note, I cannot wait to see the judges even try to criticize Gladys. That audience will turn on them quicker than they can ever imagine 🙂
Great Rankings Courtney.. And spot on if I’d say so myself. The only question mark for me is Donald and Peta? Not sure what to make of these two just yet.
But I as well, thought from day one that its was Jaleel and Kym’s to lose. And if the final 3 should happen to fall like you say, (I’m just saying though), then its a no brainer Kym’s freestyle will knock the socks off the others. Go Jaleel.
Funny you say that about Jaleel. To me he seems like he’s taking it too seriously. To me he seems like that David guy with Kym who dissed CAI. Will have to see though.
@vin – Its a tough call with Melissa and Jaleel both of their sitcoms are currently showing daily on our local cable. Family Matters in the morning, and Little House on the Prairie in the evening. I think they are even keel when it comes to recognition.
Tada, it’s her opinion that’s all. Luckily, we are all entitled to still have on ein this country 🙂
Anyway, I hope the issue Jaleel has with cameras in the practices doesn’t freak him out. It should be a non-issue really.
Did anyone hear Maks say when he wins this season he wants the big mirror ball that’s in the ballroom? LOL Umm…I wouldn’t say Melissa is this season’s JR, but I think he meant she’s an “emotional ” favorite. But then wouldn’t Gladys and Jaleel be as well as Martina? Gladys, over 60 legend, and Jaleel. a child star that the viewing age probably watched, and Martina overcame cancer.
Sandy, I agree. If they make it to the finals, all Kym has to worry about is Derek & Mark, and I don’t think either of them will make it there this season.
So hope you’re wrong Sheery re: Derek and Maria! 🙂 Time will tell!
Wonderful article, Courtney. I agree with you on most counts. I always look forward to reading what you post because I find you to be the most articulate, reasonable, non-biased writer on any of the many blogs I read. I’m already looking foward to the weekly power-rankings!
@sheery:
I think you’re mostly right about the freestyle round. But, Chelsie has never made it to the freestyle, right? So we’re not sure what she’d pull out of her backpocket. And with Roshon being a good hip hop dancer (so I’ve read, haven’t seen any footage)…it could get interesting!! 🙂
Meggie, I’d like them to be in it…not sure about her “fan base” being big enough…cross fingers 🙂
Here’s Maria & Jaleel (Tada don’t watch it—there’s a Sherri comment).
http://www.news10.net/video/default.aspx?bctid=1510547089001
Chelsie had some freak out moments trying to choreograph Romeo’s routines. I love Chels and hope she now has the experience to get her there.
You’re right, she does have a tendency to put a lot of pressure on herself. I hope she can let go of that. Something tells me that she would do well choreographing a freestyle though, just b/c she has a background of more contemporary dancing, right? Of course, she could crash and burn.
I’m just excited for the season to begin. I love pretty much all the pros, and I’m ready for them to be on my TV again. The only ones I don’t love are Val and Peta, but like so many have said, they didn’t really get to make a spalsh last season. But all the rest I adore. Even Mark. I can forgive him for season 12. Unless he does it again, then he’s written off! LOL.
I really want to c a Chelsie freestyle. She always struck me as being full of energy and creativity. It would be great to see.
Thanks Sheery! Loved that clip! It was nice seeing the two of them together!
@Tada: If you don’t like Sherri then just don’t vote 4 her. problem solved.
Thanks guys for all the positive feedback 🙂
@vin – I highly disagree with you – if you think only people born in the 90’s and their parents are going to know Jaleel, you may as well count me out, since I was born in the 80s 🙂 You have to remember: the biggest chunk of the DWTS viewing audience is women between the ages of 40 & 60. Family Matters was on the air from 1989-98 – right around the time many of the middle aged viewers were getting married and raising families, so the odds are probably good they were tuning into sitcoms like Family Matters which aired between 8-9 pm. ABC’s TGIF lineup was HUGE. And as for the younger viewers – they may write him off, but they’re also not a big chunk of the viewing audience. If any of these celebs want to win, they have to have the middle-aged female viewers on their side – and I think Jaleel does.
This is the third time I’ve written this comment – I keep losing it – and it keeps getting shorter! lol
Courtney, thanks for this. It will help me hang in until Monday. As I said to Sheery, I’m hoping Derek will help Maria break out of her shell and really bring it. Maybe climb the rankings to at least the top three! Roshon reminds me of Romeo will all his huff and bluff and coolness at the beginning and then finally we got to see the sweet side. Hope that happens with Roshon.
I’d love to swap Jack for Sherri in the rankings or at least move Sherri down and move everyone up one. I’m one of those person who gets tired of Sherri really fast and that’s even before she dances and before the practising controversy! JMO! Not sure how much of the public feels the same.
Never thought about the TGIF lineup to be honest but then again even when it was around Friday nights was movie night at my house so I never really watched it. I get wah tu are saying. I’m going to admit it: I am wrong. He has a bigger fanbase than I thought. I still think that the teenage vote will affect it somehow. I remeber when Brstol was o nthe show teenagers were rooting her and voting like crazy and the same when arron carter was on the show. The teenage vote might be higlhy effective but then again it might not.
There were a lot of other people that connected with the teenage vote but honestly they didn;t make it too far. The only other tw iothat come to mind that really utilized it were kyle and the boy banders.
Hmmm… am I missing something, or did someone’s comment(s) get deleted? Feels like I dropped into the middle of a conversation… 😉
On another note, I saw this vid linked by @DWTSTalk: http://www.oprah.com/own-rosie/Jaleel-White-on-His-Dancing-with-the-Stars-Competition-Video
In it, Jaleel talks about his competition. He mentions that Sherri already has T-Shirts printed out, really wants to win, yadda, yadda. Sounds like Sherri is almost in the “desperate” camp as well…
Courtney. Great breakdown of the top half. Of course, I’d rather swap out a couple of these for some of my favorites in the bottom half, but as you said this is NOT about favorites.
Sherri/Val: If they make the 2nd half, and I’m not sure that will happen, I can’t see them going any higher than 6th. Val is still riding on Maks’s coat-tails, and Chmerkovskiy fans will sacrifice him if they think Maks has a shot at the MBT especially since Melissa trumps Sherri as a celeb partner, hands down.
Donald/Peta: I agree the Cheeseheads should get him to the 2nd half of the season. That’s fine by me since I want to see what Peta can do. Don’t want them to go much farther unless it’s on dance merit.
Maria/Derek: I see these two in the finals if Roshon is bounced early and Maria overcomes her inhibitions about “looking like a dork”. Derek knows how to get it done, Maria is pretty and personable, they have good chemistry, and they look very attractive together.
Roshon/Chelsie: Haven’t been able to warm up to Roshon. I’m open to changing my opinion, but right now I don’t see him as another Kyle. If they get to the finals, it will be with an assist from the judges.
Melissa/Maks: They have the ingredients to make a run at the title, but so much depends on our tempermental chef. If Maks really wants that MBT, he had better exercise some self control. If he does that and puts together a good freestyle, I would like to see this team take the top spot.
Jaleel/Kym: Can’t argue with this placement. On paper they look darn good, but Jaleel needs to prove to me he really can dance, not just sort of dance. If he does that, I’d be happy to see them win.
Wow! Just watched the clip above (thanks Sally!) and you can’t tell me that Jaleel is not ticked off at Sherry S. right now. I wasn’t sure when I heard his comments about Sherry in the clips he’s in with Maria (further up the comments from Sheery), but I’m sure now. He’s really calling her out on it! Let the chips fall where they may!
I for one agree that it’s Jaleel’s to lose if he turns out to be a decent dancer. He’s likeable, humble, great with Kym and should have the Perfect fan base for this show. I know him way better than Melissa, but maybe the Little House on the Prairie show was more before my time. And the younger people will know him from the Cee Lo video.
@Sally – I deleted a comment that I don’t think added anything to the great conversation we’re having and was just someone trying to put a damper on the festivities 😉
Thank you Courtney! Fantastic conclusion… On paper, I do think Jaleel and Melissa are bound for the finals ATM. The jury is out on Roshon for me bc I haven’t been impressed in what I’ve seen in the rehearsal video. I know that he’s a hip hop dancer and will have an advantage, but when you think about all the SYTYCD contestants who are hip-hop dancers and then are required to do ballroom/latin, sometimes it’s just not that good. But I’ll give Roshon a chance bc I think this DWTS journey will mature him. I would love for Maria and Derek to go as far as they can & I do think they have a lot going for them. Team Roshie said in an interview that Maria is gonna give them competition and that she is looking awesome.
Court, excellent once again. I too tend to think it will be a race between Melissa, Jaleel, and Maria for the finals. I’m really hoping Tony and Martina can make atleast to the top 5. I’m keeping my fingers crossed. I also wonder on Mark and Katherine still and if they will do really well.
Only three more days! So excited!!
@Courtney: “I also think [Melissa]’s got a strong constitution and isn’t going to burst into tears the moment Maks raises his voice”
I admit, in the wake of the controversy last season, to having thought a lot about Maks’s dynamics with his parners. So far, I think we’ve seen him much more at ease with older celebs (a la Kirstie), and having much more drama with younger ones (like Brandy or *ahem* Hope). So, while Maks has clearly got issues and must work on his temper, I also think it is not improved either with partners who are perhaps not emotionally mature enough to not take his comments and frustrations personally. Emotional maturity doesn’t always go with age, though, and I do think some young women could have what it takes to stand up to Maks’s bull and answer to it gracefully.
Just a little something TPTB may want to take into consideration next time they choose a partner for him.
And now, back to our regular programming and the discussion of your rankings…
My young teen was supposed to go out to eat and the movies with a small group of friends, however she realized that Hines, Ralph, Romeo, and Dmitry would be on tomorrow night at 6pm and she’d miss it. I said, “Don’t worry, I’l tape it.” The group of teens said why don’t we order chinese food and just watch DWTS? We can go to the movies on Sunday.” They agreed… lol!!! So the “youngsters” are into it. Some girls are in dancing school, gymnasts, cheer squads, etc and love the show. The boys like to see how athletes are on it and let’s face it, enjoy watching the pretty girls dance 🙂 From early questioning of them, they and the kids in their classes who watch are interested in Gavin Degraw, Jaleel, Donald, Roshon, and Martina. And yes….they have a lot of accounts and know how to work them…..hysterical!
Sheery, you are just going to have to point out to those teenagers boys how pretty Maria is! LOL
EL, I don’t think it has anything to do with age. I think it’s quite simple – Maks is at his best when he’s got a partner he enjoys being around, a la MelB and Erin. And, I guess to some people, Kirstie, though I couldn’t stand him with her. Otherwise, it’s almost painful to watch him.
Sherri/Val-Love this team, know many don’t, but imo I think they will surprise many.
Donald/Peta- Don’t know much about either one, so if they make the 2nd half it will be done by wonderful dancing.
Maria/Derek- a cute pair, Derek knows how to bring the best out of his celbs.
Roshon/Chelsie-Like this team, young man has moves. No, he no Kyle Massey, But imo, don’t care.
Melissa/Maksim- Watch LHOP because Little Joe became Pa. As for 2nd place, Ican see it, Maksim did it with Kirstie and her fanbase
Jaleel/Kym- Maybe, Imo hope he starts off like Ralph and keeps moving up in his dance skills.
Love and appreciate the Power Rankings!!!
If Jaleel and Roshon are in the top 3 this season, I will be a very happy camper. Jaleel will be on Psych (USA channel) this coming Wednesday. Should be extra funny with Jaleel!!
As far as the Roshon, I still don’t get why he comes off as being cocky to some people. He “tries” to have that rapper swag, but it is much tone downed and G to PG-rated IMO. He seems super cute and sweet and gets along well with Chelsie. His family, especially his dad, seems to go with him to practice, events, etc. He may be sheltered more so than other kids his age (just my initial perception). He just posted a behind the scenes type video on his youtube page YaBoyYoungRo Channel. I’m hoping his cha-cha will be better than what I have seen in practice. There’s a video from Cambio (check Chelsie’s twitter) that has some more footage of them dancing.
Meggie, hahaha!!! They didn’t recognize her name!!!! One kid said her thought she was the hot girl who lost a bet about the Super Bowl and wore a Giants bikini in the city. They googled it and who knows maybe they’ll “crush” on her… as they say. 🙂
Thanks, Harriet…I’m gonna check it out.
@Donna:
I agree that it’s a huge bonus when a pro and their partner “click” on a personal level and have great chemistry from the beginning. However, a dance partnership is like the working place. Sometimes you like your colleagues, sometimes you don’t, yet you must always treat them in a professional manner. The problem I see with Maks (as an example, mind) is that he and his partners sometimes let the personal relationship get in the way of their professional behaviour. It goes both ways, and while Maks has a responsibility to explain dance as best he knows how, his partners have the responsibility to rise above a personal interpretation of his comments and concentrate on the actual message. Or perharps simply ask him to give a new angle to his explanations if they don’t compute.
To draw a small parallel, I’ve done some social and historical dancing of my own. And while there are some dancers in my groups I feel more at ease with, when I happen to dance with others I don’t like so much, I have found that if I concentrate on having a good time and smiling rather than regretting not dancing with that other person, or being exasperated that they don’t do quite what I like, it goes that much quicker and I stand a good chance of having a fonder memory of that practice/evening/etc…
And that’s where I was going with my comment about the emotional maturity of Maks’s partners.
I think that somehow some way, Sherri will end up getting all the “View” people to be in the audinece at one point. She seems like the kind of person that would use her coworkers to get votes (actually wouldn’t be surprised if Roshon does the same with the “Shake it up ” people)
@Millie: I think that Roshon is going to lack Kyle’s showmanship. He probably is going to be technically great but showmanship might cost him.
My take on Maks is that it has nothing to do with age and that he only does really well with partners who are funny/laid back (because he is NOT), AS WELL as having a strong enough personality to not put up with his BS. The ones who will make him laugh while putting him in his place.
I think Maks had a “problem” last season, and not just because of Hope’s lack of dancing skills. I think many factors (one of them being the biggest of course) affected him. I think it really bothered him to see someone with the winning edge(cough cough) and also that his brother was off early, not just because the person he wanted to be partnered with had “issues” and it didn’t go well.
Totally agree with you with Jaleel and Kym and Melissa and Maks taking the top 2 spots. I’m rooting for Donald and Peta go take 3rd. He has a great story and I’d like to see more of Peta this season.
The only one that struck me as possibly off is Melissa. She doesn’t have the personality that Kirstie had and isn’t as big of a star (IMO). I’m not sure people will like her. Plus if Maks loses his patience because she doesn’t dance as “pretty” (his word in describing Jennifer’s dancing) as Jennifer Grey or disappoints his expectation in
ANY way, she could be in for badgering. I think she could go sooner. Sherry gets on my last nerve too. It would have been interesting to put her with Maks. 🙂 And I do hope Maria doesn’t do ‘the laugh’ all the time. I’m afraid people won’t like it. Still, the ‘Derek factor’ will push her a little closer to the top, I think.
@vin, imo don’t know what kind of showmanship this young man will bring. What I do like about him is his positive attitude which some might think is cocky.
Courtney, loved your 2nd half of the rankings and again, I agree! I also love that you predicted Jaleel and Kym to be the winners and I hope you’re right!
Don’t underestimate Donald’s chances of making it far though. Even though he might be stiff or whatever, his smile and charm can attract the audience and he has the Packers behind him. Steeler Nation is HUGE and really pulled together to get Hines the trophy. Big football team fans like Steelers and Packers are very loyal to their players and stick together to make sure their hero get as far as possible. This happened with Hines and this can happen with Donald as well although it’s mostly the “Cheeseheads” who are devoted but the Steelers are incredibly popular in several states on the east coast.
Roshon does remind me of both Kyle and Romeo. I think he’s as peppy as Kyle but Kyle’s probably more charming, I think. If he makes the finals, he can possibly blow everyone out of the water with the freestyle. I used to think the freestyle was pretty much a big factor in determining the winner until Season 12. Personally, I preferred Chelsea’s freestyle over Kirstie’s because I felt it was more fun and energetic. I thought Kirstie’s freestyle was boring (sorry) but she made it in 2nd because of her large fanbase and the demographics. That’s when I decided that the freestyle doesn’t really determine the winner. Also, with an older cast we have this season, we may have an older audience tuning in and less younger people watching so Roshon may have a difficult time grabbing that trophy.
I wasn’t sure what it was about Sherri that annoyed people until today. She does seem a bit full of herself, although I love that she’s doing this for her disabled son. I don’t want to make my favorites look bad by going on about Sherri so I’ll stop here.
For Jack, I think he’ll go further than some people might think. He’s got a big fanbase from the soap operas that he’s done and he might even stay longer than he should because of that and because of middle-aged women looking forward to good-looking men like him. He seems charming so I think he’ll make it half-way. Plus, he’s got a really popular pro in Anna and everyone loves her.
I wanted to say about Jaleel…. I think maybe some younger people will love him even though Family Matters was cancelled before they were born but they still show reruns in some areas. I have an 11 year old niece and she loves watching the reruns of this show and Full House as well. Steve Urkel may not be as famous right now as he was before but I think some young people might be paying attention to the reruns and people in their 30s and 40s would love to look back in their childhood back in the 90s. Me, for example and I’m only in my early 30s. 🙂
Kyle had great showmanship. On top of that, he is a talented comedic actor and a big old teddy bear, which is a big draw for DWTS viewers. For me, his self-depricating humor was a big bonus. Of all the Disney kids, he has probably been the most likeable.
@Milly & @Vin
We will get a bigger picture of Roshon’s personality on Monday. So far, I think he’s super adorable and very talented. I don’t think he’s Kyle 2.0 but hopefully a lovable guy along the lines of Kyle and Ty.
I am on the fence about Melissa. I am sure will do fine based on the demo but she does not look that amazing to me.
Like many, I think Jaleel is the one to beat. If Donald can dance and PETA is even a bit like Kym in terms of choreo talent, he could be another Hines.
Not sold on Roshon yet. Though he might be Chelsea’s best chance at a finals appearance for the first time.
I think Maria looks good for a beginner and I think her personalit, laugh and all, is good. She is pretty but accessible with her humor. But I fear just the Derek being an advantage can also be a negative. In that people placing unfair high expectations.
Buttercup, very well said. When Maks is happy, he’s a pleasure to watch. When he’s not, it’s painful.
Gladys & Tristan:
http://wildfire.gigya.com/wildfire/WidgetPreview.aspx?ut=dBFII5RbVxUc8nBdc3bMDT7hmmrIvgen1wCG_dxqadJhAAWkNZSIhV-1DGKZvwZ0-DQUg5JS8Y61ukrjwOp8p81S9pP6R_BhovjemyHtbA0dAsx-PMuL2zIosIac-rUvj3lTh1WL6rg0IY1bFO3pdiq0GQ8TwM6enbZKtH_hLTWs8vQjDY3Qox9rE89GXwqHXX40qxthE1BkoeNMFILZslQ-DVWsiL8Z9R2Cl0ZrF2lsueJs5cdY_eGULUq8wMLEsQ3XKGF_gaWzm0oevWi3IA..
Roshon full of himself? I never got the impression watching him. He seems incredibly sweet and down to earth not to mention adorable.
Disney kids have done pretty well. Chelsea came in 3rd, Kyle was Runner Up, and Cody Linley made it to the semis.
Well Sabrina did not do well and Chelsea was propped to the finals. Roshon seems to lack Kyle’s charm. That is just me but I do not think he is fll of himself.
Well I just saw the footage of Derek and Maria’s rehearsal and I think they will make it to the finals. The camera loves her and she’s pretty good. And, er, does Derek have a crush? 🙂
Personally, I agree with the Chelsie bit. She’s probably my least favorite pro, and she’s never missed in my house hold. I haven’t seen any Roshon videos, just looking at a picture of him makes me think “Wow…he looks kind of cocky” which will seriously hurt him.
It would be so amazing for Kym to become the second 3 time champ, but honestly? I want a pro with 0 mirrorball trophies to win. But there will be no crying from me if Jaleel and Kym win.
But I really don’t know who I’ll vote for this season until I watch the premier. Just 3 days away! I’m excited!
Courtney, great analysis. You did an amazing job.
I agree with you for the most part, except I would definitely slide Maria & Derek in the top 3! I know she’s pretty much starting from scratch which in this case could be a good thing, especially with a partner like Derek Hough whose known for his abilities to turn non-dancers into performers, even champions, i.e. Brooke Burke!
Maria seems determined, eager to learn and girlfriend is putting in the hours too. From the videos I’ve seen of these two, they have mad chemistry, are gorgeous together, funny and she moves well too.
It’s kinda early to call it but I’m thinking top 3! Okay, yeah I’m hoping for it-lol
Thanks for taking the time to put this together for the fans of the show. We appreciate it and you too.
You rock!!!
Entirely possible Derek has a crush. She’s so totally his type it’s freaky. 🙂
Well, if you listen to Derek, Dee, they only spend that much time rehearsing because he like being around her. :::I will not ship, I will not ship:::
Maria has a boyfriend but yeah she is so Derek’s type. I hope she does back down on some commitments. She is wrestling apparently in March too! She is focused but worry she might be stretched thin. She has to at least tie with Mario.
If Kym wins with Jaleel, is she the first four time winner since she won in the Aussie version?
Sounds like it will be a bit close this season so it is tough to really rank them.
BTW, I think Roshon is adorable and very respectful! He’s young, vibrant and seems excited to be on the show and partnered with Chelsie, that’s sweet and should translate well on the show. He’s a great hip hop dancer but I don’t think ballroom is coming easy for him.
I hope they do well! Love his dimples!!
I don’t count the Aussie version (and neither does DWTS, apparently), since it is a different show, different pros, and so on. She will be tied with Derek if she wins. But I don’t think that’s a sure thing just yet.
But you think he’ll (Jaleel) do well, Heidi?
Melissa, well, people won’t see Kym as a four time winner (they don’t even see her as a 3 time winner after winning with Donny and Hines, even though she won in Australia) because Kym is in America. She won twice in America and once in Australia. As a faithful fan of Kym’s, I do consider her a three-peat already and I think her other loyal fans does too. However, most people don’t see it that way and it’s fine. Whatever makes them happy and whatever makes us happy, right? 😉 But if you’re asking like in the whole world, then yes, she would be a four time winner. So Heidi is right, she would be tied with Derek if she wins this season in America. Heidi, nothing is a sure thing until the competition has started so I agree. 😉
Maria does have a serious BF–not sure if they live together, but you can see him on some of the vids she posted on twitter.
I’ve been watching the various promo’s over the last few days, and while I still want to wait for Monday to see how they dance, I am seriously liking Melissa, Jack, Jaleel and Gladys although I don’t know how well Gladys will hold up.
There’s been so little press on Mark and his partner it’s hard to tell. Roshon has the potential to be cute, and Maria’s laugh drives me nuts. Sherry also gets on my last nerve. Haven’t seen enough of Donald to comment yet. Or even Martina, although I love her. Monday should be great. I am really looking forward to this season hopefully reasonably drama free.
Don’t bet on Jaleel just yet. He is looking good on paper right now, but not seeing the charisma that Kym’s previous partners had. And those big bulgy eyes are going to turn a lot of people off.
He is sounding a little too mello dramatic too. Already making complaints how he’s uncomfortable about a lot of things. He said he’s never watched the show, but he made comments on not doing the show previously because it’s frustrating to see dwts always casting people who had previous dancing background.
LOL, Heidi! They both seem to really enjoy each other’s company & oh yeah, she’s always talking about how good he smells!-woohoo!!
I’m looking forward to this couple!! Go Maria & Derek! Team Menough all the way..
T, I’ve seen some of what you are talking about, and have sort of put it down to him being uncomfortable with being identified with Urkel. he’s going to have to get comfortable with that pretty quickly, since that’s how people relate to him. I have seen him make the comments about Sherry and some of the others,and being uncomfortable with the cameras in rehearsals, but I still think in the end, he’s an actor and will bring that to the ballroom. I hope.
OH my! I stopped reading this thread to look at the tv because I heard the words” video of CeeLo Green”…so I thought I was gonna see Jaleel…nope! CeeLo cursing and giving the finger at a fund raiser for the Prez….oh well…just an FYI if anyone thinks to get a glimpse of Jaleel n tonights/or tomorrow mornings news HAHA!
Anyway, Karina tweeted that Gavin is like a little energizer bunny doing the jive & “woo hoo” is trying to keep up with his kicks. Hope they are good kicks!! 🙂
Oh we know she has a boyfriend, just enjoying their partnership. To make a lasting impression with the audience and viewers it’s important to have chemistry with your partner and Maria & Derek definitely have that-they’re a fun/gorgeous team. I think the audience and viewers will grow to adore them!
Let’s go S14!!
Well, it’s not going to be a 4 peat because she wasn’t competing against Derek, Cheryl and other power houses that are on the American version. They also aren’t dealing with the American viewing audience, the American judges, the American producers, different styles of choreography…it’s a different show. I’ve watched Strictly – and it’s a VERY different show. No comparison other than ballroom. So of course Kym’s fans are going to try to claim it’s a three peat, but it’s apples and crab apples. Logically, no. It’s like saying that winning the championship in Arena football is just as good as winning an NFL Championship. Arena fans believe it, I’m sure – but no one else does. And if a quarterback wins in Arena football, then goes on to play for the NFL, they don’t say he has TWO championship titles. Although his fans probably do. 🙂
Another great post, Courtney. And like most everyone here, agree with most of your rankings. Not sure that Sherri and Val will make it past the half way point, and not sure Roshon will make it into the finals. In fact, I think that Maria or Roshon might be the surprise elimination this season – I’m thinking Maria might have problems with the Latin dances, and Roshon with the ballroom. Of course, in 2 days, I’ll be eating those words, most likely LOL. I’m feeling Jack or Donald might be joining Jaleel and Melissa in the finals, but it’s Jaleel for the win. He has the complete package we’ve all been talking about …. let’s hope he can dance. I have a feeling he can and that he’ll be just as good in the Latin rounds as in the ballroom. IF he can get away from being p.o.’d about the Great Cheating Scandal and not get wrapped up in the never-ending Previous Dance Experience debate, and just focus on he and Kym and dancing.
Kym probably needs to have a chat with him if he gets too serious or disgruntled about other contestants.
Ah, the “does the Aussie version of the show count” discussion again. 😉 I agree with the folks who have said some count it (like me), and some don’t… and minds aren’t going to change. 🙂 So come on, Monday!
Monday can’t get here fast enough for me. I generally pull for the underdog and that to me would be Martina, and I would love to see Tony win for once.
@Heidi, I’m actually agreeing with you. You’re right, it isn’t going to be a four-peat technically.
@Sally, you said it! Minds are not going to change. Some will feel the way they do. As I said, people will think whatever they wish to make themselves happy. I’m happy that Kym won twice in America and she won once in Australia and I’m happier calling her a three-peat even though it’s not technically so than calling her a two-time winner. Other people will disagree if that makes them happy.
@sheery, I agree. Jaleel needs to focus on himself and not on others. He (and others) can’t control what the other dancers do and what they did before joining DWTS. So Sherry paid a visit to get a little experience and lessons. People take lessons for events like weddings. That’s not so unusual. Perhaps even though Sherry wanted to be on the show, why not take the lessons just for fun? What you say on TV can hurt you so it’s best that the contestants just worry about themselves and their progress. Of course reporters are going to milk out some answers that may hurt them in the competition. That’s their job lol! They’re going to milk them out for people to read about and discuss. Contestants like Jaleel just need to control themselves.
Let me put it this way, Sally. If Derek went over to Strictly for a season and basically wiped the floor with the pros on that show (could happen – any of our pros could do that) and won, would you still think it would count?? I wouldn’t think so. I don’t think the playing field is level.
By the same token, Derek COULD be an early exit on Strictly because he tends to be much flashier and the judges over there are much harsher. And I believe on quite a few dances, the rules are different. So, for that reason, I don’t think they’re comparable. If he was the first one out, I wouldn’t add that to his rating that he gets for the US show. No one could say – FINALLY, an early exit for him. Not with a straight face.
But then, I tend to look at things in a more scientific way.
Heidi – I believe we both look at things somewhat scientifically, because of our backgrounds…
I know that this won’t change any hearts or minds, but there is a rationale for “counting” the Aussie version. Some won’t agree, but it’s not just being a loopy, myopic fan (at least that’s my story, and I’m sticking to it! 😉 )
Let’s look at the number of Aussies on the current DWTS “team” – Kym and Peta are pros with partners, then there’s Sasha, Sharna, and now Henry in the troupe. Using the NFL analogy, if the Australian version of DWTS is truly “bush league” compared to here, then why are so many Aussies popping up on our TV screen? Yes, there’s a bigger audience here, more money to be made, more opportunities for the pros to grow their celebrity and “make it” over and above dancing. But also, it tells me that there’s a vibrant ballroom dance community in Australia, and some pretty danged good competitors over there.
I get the “apples and crab apples” argument, but I don’t buy it. Personally, I look at more like “a tango is a tango, whether it’s done in L.A. or Sydney is irrelevant”. And all of the other non-dance parts of DWTS (like working the media to get people to vote for you) would be more or less the same to me, too. So if Derek went on SCD, and managed to win it, I’d count it. And if he exited early, I’d blame his partner… 😉 😉 and that’s the bit of fangirl in me.
It’s not just that it’s the bush league (although by my count Kym is the only Aussie regular and the ONLY winner – all the rest haven’t lasted AT ALL or are supporting players – the BENCH if you will), it’s that they are just different shows. Not to mention that Kym wasn’t competing against anyone else who is on the American version (meaning Derek, Cheryl, Maks, Mark, etc). And yes, where the Tango is done does have an impact – because of different judges and different styles. Do Bruno, CAI and Len all judge the dances the same way? Of course not – BUT they are a factor for ALL the pros on the US shows. Level playing field. So, who are the judges on the Aussie show and have the judged any pro other than Kym? No – different show, different game.
Let me ask you this – if Brian Fortuna were to win four season of Strictly, would you say “well, he’s the most successful DWTS pro ever”?? Seriously. After all, he did one season of DWTS and a tango is a tango, right??
You are right – the judging is different. But who is to say the Australian judging isn’t tougher? Same goes for the competition – perhaps it’s just me “filling in the blanks”, but when I read that “…Kym wasn’t competing against anyone else who is on the American version”, I get an implied vibe of “…and they’re not as good”. If I get the implication correctly, it assumes facts not in evidence.
On the Brian Fortuna scenario – if he had won four seasons of SCD, then yes, in my book, it makes him “the most successful DWTS pro”. But he hasn’t – because he’s not that good, IMO…. 😉
…one other thought. Perhaps one empirical data point we can agree on might be “Number of MBT’s / Number of seasons”. I’m not sure about this, but by that yardstick, I believe Derek comes out on top. And that’s OK by me, since Derek is my favorite pro (Kym’s my fav female)… 😀
No, Sally, it means that none of the pros on the US version had a chance to beat Kym when she was on the Aussie version. They weren’t competing. Therefore, they had no shot at beating her. ETA: It doesn’t matter the quality of judging, better or worse, easier or tougher – it only matters that they aren’t the SAME.
We will never ever agree on this – I don’t think it’s remotely scientifically sound.
And yes, Derek is the top pro by the numbers – but since I don’t count the Aussie version, I don’t know how that would change Kym’s ranking.
You’re right about that – we won’t agree… 😀 And we even disagree on it being scientifically sound. 😉 By my count, I get the following:
Kym – 3 MBT’s in 13 combined seasons
Derek – 3 MBT’s in only 8 seasons.
So by that yardstick, Derek is MUCH more prolific… 😉
It’s not about Derek being prolific – it’s about whether Kym’s other mirror ball counts. Thanks for the attempt at placation, though, smilies and all. 🙂 Still doesn’t count.
Thinking Jack might be the Ty of this season, personality wise.
Ouch. It wasn’t an attempt at placating. It was an attempt at civil discussion…
I thought it was civil…
…I guess it’s just time to say that you don’t count it; I do. We’ve both got our reasons, and no one’s mind is going to change.
I hope this settles the “MBT Debate”….Kym herself has been on video as saying, “I’ve won twice now. I won before with Donny, and now with Hines.” Hines added that she won in Australia and she said, “Yes, I also won dwts back home in Australia.” Even Kym realizes it’s a different recognition.
If a baseball plays for Japan for 3 yrs and wins a championship and establishes record numbers in HRs, RBIs,etc. Then he comes to the US and plays MLB, his world championship and his stats don’t count here, even though it’s the same sport, with the same rules.
I think fans worry more about her “tally” than Kymmie does.
meant if a baseball player plays….
I know I am little bit late but, thank you so much Courtney for the second part! You did a great job! I’d prefer to see my favorite couple (Maria and Derek) on the top three but this is not about favorites.
My choice (picking based on my favorites :)) would be Maria, Jaleel and William. I like their personalities from what I’ve seen so far and I think that they can move quite well! But like I said…it’s not about favorites! So, we’ll have to wait and see what happens on Monday!
@Sally and Heidi
I think I’ll go with Heidi in this one. I do prefer seperating the wins cause even if both shows are about ballroom dancing (I guess since I’ve never watched the Aussie version) they are different at the same time. Different judging, different pros even different people voting. I am not saying that the one version is better than the other or that the pros of one’s show are better, just different. And I am not trying to understate Kym since she is one of my two favorite female pros.
But along that…there is another pro who won 3 times in the SAME version. Raimondo Todaro from the Italian version and at this point he is at the final four of the current season! So…we might have a first time fourth times winner soon… And it won’t be from the US or US+Aussie version 😉 Who knows?a
Ifigenia, I guess you just have to watch some versions (like the Aussie) of DWTS on youtube to decide. There’s a number of dances from the Aussie version on youtube if you wish to watch and decide. There’s at least a couple, I think, from Brazil, Argentina, Poland and maybe Korea. Sorry, trying to think from the top of my head. Again, it’s all how we feel about this and we have our favorite pros and like I said, I’m happier saying that Kym won 3 times even though she won twice in America. Technically, she won twice in America but I think from a worldwide perspective, it’s 3 times because she does have 3 trophies. I’m sure others out there will disagree but that’s how I feel.
@Liz
Watch some versions to DECIDE??? I don’t have anything to decide. It has nothing to do about watching other versions or not. Even if I was watching them (I’ve seen some videos but not whole versions), I’ll have the same opinion. I seperate the shows because they’ve been judjed with different criteria! And by different criteria I mean that if Derek was competing at the Aussie version he might haven’t won once or maybe he would have won all seasons! Since he was not there we can’t know that, right? (I am just using Derek’s name and Aussie version only because we are talking about these right now). But that goes for all the pros and all versions.
As I said, I am NOT understating Kym! She an amazing pro and I love her and enjoying seeing her and her choreographies. I am just watching the versions as totally different shows.
And since someone said that even Kym herself said that she won twice, it means that she is also separating the wins.
And to use an example, since I am from Greece and the only other version I’ve watched (whole version) is the Greek….I am telling you that if one of the pros of the US version (Derek or Kym or Maks or Chreyl or Anna etc) was competing in our version, they would have definetely won! It’s a whole another level and the pros are learning to adjust in every version according to what each version needs! You know what I mean?
That doesn’t mean that the Greek pros are worst. It’s just that since they haven’t be asked to do something more, they have adjusted on that level. Here, the judjes are not so strict with the rules and in every dance you are watching lifts by all the pros, in a way that the choreographies are more like acrobatics (the audience of course like the lifts and they get excited) than a Paso Doble or a Quickstep or a Waltz etc choreography. And personally, I don’t like it. If a Greek pro was competing on the US version, I am sure that they would adjust to the rules of that show.
Anyway…the bottom line is that everyone have their opinion. I can’t say that by saying Kym won twice is right and by saying she won 3 times is wrong. Cause both are right and wrong at the same time. Everyone can use the one that “satisfies their taste” 😉
Wow….
Ifigenia, it was just a suggestion to watch some versions of DWTS on youtube. Not to make a big deal out of doing so and you don’t have to watch them if you don’t want to. I also didn’t think I said that you understate Kym but maybe I did. Didn’t mean to.
I’m skeptical that the level of dancing, popularity and personalities are as off the charts as some say, but I think this is a competitive & tough one to call as most all of the cast seems likeable and capable of good dancing. Have to see how everyone performs and presents, but here’s my preliminary thoughts and guesses on approximate placements:
Martina – Love that she’s here and putting her best stroke forward, but what I’ve seen of her dancing looks ackward. And then there’s the question of how much fan support she and Tony will have. Will say she’s the one I hope I’m most wrong on.
Katherine – Seems lovely and nice dancing potential, but her popularity is in question and I don’t think Mark has as much support as he once had.
Gavin – Could see him being endearing enough to stay beyond his dancing talent (and could see him being better that thought there too), but he and his pro are not as widely popular as some competitors and and his touring is a distraction.
Gladys – She’s the pro, moves and votes, but worry the marathon nature of this will be her undoing (especially if she’s still touring) and she’ll exit once it gets down to the better dancers.
Sherri – Low middle finisher. Anticipate her body, travel and schedule will get to her (and she the audience) as the seasons progresss.
Roshon – He looks to be a capable dancer, but he is very young for the demographic.
Jack – Hard worker yet I can see him getting lost in the shuffle. Is he known outside of soaps or Heather Locklear?
Melissa – Kind of have the same thought of her as Jack, though think she’s more widely known. All things, considered, likely to finish upper pack, conceivably semifinalist or even better.
Maria – She’s got the best lines of the gals and the ambition and popular pro to exploit it. Some questions as to how natural a dancer she is and how she may come across with voting demographic (model curse, that laugh, etc). Depending, she may come in on the other side of Jack and Melissa.
Donald – Dude’s got wholesomeness, charisma, athleticism, dancing potential and gorgeous pro behind him…not to mention an entire football nation.
William – From what I’m hearing, this guy could probably just stand there shirtless and get enough votes (and paddle points from Carrie Ann and Bruno) to finish middle of the pack. From the little I’ve seen, he’s showing some impressive lines, hip action and partnering. If Cheryl can get some refinement and technique into him, he easily makes the finals.
Jaleel – Unique charm, recognition, pros, moves, fitness…another smooth one I expect to make the finals.